2021 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 9, 2022 · State Farm Stadium

Seattle SeahawksWinner

Arizona Cardinals

ARI -5.5 upsetO 48 ✓Cardinals closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Seattle Seahawks 38–30. Biggest swing: Q3 10:12, SEA +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 10:12SEA — ARI SEA ball · 3rd & 7ARI 63%

(10:12) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right intended for 25-T.Homer INTERCEPTED by 34-J.Thompson [45-D.Gardeck] at SEA 34. 34-J.Thompson pushed ob at SEA 1 for 33 yards (74-J.Curhan).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 10:12SEA +17% win prob(10:12) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right intended for 25-T.Homer INTERCEPTED by 34-J.Thompson [45-D.Gardeck] at SEA 34. 34-J.Thompson pushed ob at SEA 1 for 33 yards (74-J.Curhan).
Q4 · 4:45ARI +17% win prob(4:45) (Shotgun) 20-R.Penny up the middle for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 13:22ARI +15% win prob(13:22) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 2:02ARI +15% win prob(2:02) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 18-F.Swain for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Seahawks	Cardinals
Offensive plays	56	72
Total yards	432 (edge)	305
Yards per play	7.7 (edge)	4.2
Expected points added / play	0.18 (edge)	-0.02
Success rate	45%	47% (edge)
Dropback rate	50%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.18 (edge)	-0.07
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.18 (edge)	0.07
Third downs	8/12 (edge)	9/18
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	19	19
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	5
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Seahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs -0.02.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

28/39, 240 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-3.6 expected points added · +0.7% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Russell WilsonQB

15/26, 238 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

2.6 expected points added · +0.4% completion over expected

Rushing · SEA

Rashaad PennyRB

23 att, 190 yds, 1 TD

6.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

James ConnerRB

15 att, 52 yds, 1 TD

2.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SEA

Tyler LockettWR

5/5 for 98 yds, 2 TD

19% of team targets · 11.0 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

Zach ErtzTE

7/10 for 84 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 3.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SEA	SEA 25	3	-9	0:12	Defensive touchdown
2	SEA	SEA 25	7	75	2:22	Touchdown
3	ARI	ARI 25	5	4	1:30	Punt
4	SEA	SEA 22	8	26	3:31	Punt
5	ARI	ARI 11	19	67	10:41	Turnover on downs
6	SEA	SEA 25	12	75	4:03	Touchdown
7	ARI	ARI 25	8	17	4:01	Punt
8	SEA	SEA 29	11	62	2:19	Turnover on downs
9	ARI	ARI 25	5	1	1:21	End of half
10	ARI	ARI 23	8	87	3:58	Touchdown
11	SEA	SEA 25	4	3	1:00	Interception
12	ARI	SEA 1	3	1	0:37	Touchdown
13	SEA	SEA 25	8	26	3:29	Punt
14	ARI	ARI 12	4	9	1:21	Punt
15	SEA	SEA 28	6	72	2:38	Touchdown
16	ARI	ARI 25	5	-15	1:57	Fumble
17	SEA	ARI 10	4	10	1:45	Touchdown
18	ARI	ARI 21	15	67	7:01	Turnover on downs
19	SEA	SEA 25	5	75	1:40	Touchdown
20	ARI	ARI 25	15	67	3:21	Turnover on downs
21	SEA	ARI 47	4	17	1:13	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cardinals gained 87 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	15/26	238	3	1	1	2.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Rashaad Penny	23	190	8.3	1	6.2
Russell Wilson	4	5	1.3	1	-0.4
Travis Homer	1	4	4.0	0	-0.1
Tyler Lockett	1	2	2.0	0	-0.5
DeeJay Dallas	1	1	1.0	0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyler Lockett	5	5	98	2	19%	11.0
DK Metcalf	5	11	58	0	42%	0.3
Freddie Swain	1	1	25	1	4%	2.6
Travis Homer	1	3	23	0	12%	-5.3
Gerald Everett	1	3	20	0	12%	0.6
Colby Parkinson	2	3	14	0	12%	0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jordyn Brooks	12	5	0.0	0
Cody Barton	6	4	0.0	0
Josh Jones	3	4	0.0	1
Sidney Jones	3	3	0.0	2
Carlos Dunlap	3	1	2.0	1
Poona Ford	2	2	1.5	0
D.J. Reed	3	0	0.0	0
Ugochukwu Amadi	2	1	0.0	0
Quandre Diggs	3	0	0.0	0
Rasheem Green	1	1	0.0	0

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kyler Murray	28/39	240	1	0	5	-3.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Conner	15	52	3.5	1	2.9
Kyler Murray	5	35	7.0	0	0.9
Eno Benjamin	7	31	4.4	0	0.6
Andy Lee	1	0	0.0	0	-2.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Zach Ertz	7	10	84	0	26%	3.2
Christian Kirk	2	3	43	0	8%	2.1
James Conner	6	6	41	1	15%	2.8
Eno Benjamin	4	4	25	0	10%	1.6
A.J. Green	4	9	23	0	23%	-3.4
Antoine Wesley	2	4	17	0	10%	-1.4
Greg Dortch	2	2	5	0	5%	-0.7
Jonathan Ward	1	1	2	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Jalen Thompson	4	2	1	2
Jordan Hicks	2	3	0	0
Antonio Hamilton	4	0	0	1
Isaiah Simmons	3	1	0	0
Corey Peters	2	2	0	0
Breon Borders	3	0	0	0
Budda Baker	2	1	0	0
Byron Murphy	2	1	0	0
Zach Allen	2	1	0	0
Devon Kennard	2	1	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ARI -5.5
Closing total: 48
SEA moneyline: +190
ARI moneyline: -235

Cardinals closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 48; the game landed 68 — over by 20.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface: open · grass
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: SEA 7 days · ARI 7 days
Coaches: Pete Carroll vs Kliff Kingsbury

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.