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2021 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 9, 2022 · State Farm Stadium
Final
SeahawksSeattle38
BY 8final margin
CardinalsArizona30
Seattle Seahawks 38 at Arizona Cardinals 30. Final.
Cardinals -5.5 upset
The verdict · 2021 Week 18
Seattle Seahawks 38, Cardinals 30 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 10:12, 3rd and 7, on Jalen Thompson — 17.1 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 10:12 · 3rd and 7
Jalen Thompson
Cardinals
(10:12) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right intended for 25-T.Homer INTERCEPTED by 34-J.Thompson [45-D.Gardeck] at SEA 34. 34-J.Thompson pushed ob at SEA 1 for 33 yards (74-J.Curhan).
O 48 ✓
Cardinals closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Seattle Seahawks 38–30. Biggest swing: Q3 10:12, Cardinals +17.1% win probability on one snap.
17.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Russell WilsonSeahawksQ4 13:22(13:22) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.3pts
Rashaad PennySeahawksQ4 4:45(4:45) (Shotgun) 20-R.Penny up the middle for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16.8pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Seahawks won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Cardinals at 5 chunk plays.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Seahawks won this one — 8 of 12 on third down, against Cardinals at 9 of 18 on third down.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Seahawks won this one — +0.18 expected points per snap, against Cardinals at -0.02 expected points per snap.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Seahawks at 2 giveaways.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on Seahawks171 of 181 plays carry both curves
(10:12) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right intended for 25-T.Homer INTERCEPTED by 34-J.Thompson [45-D.Gardeck] at SEA 34. 34-J.Thompson pushed ob at SEA 1 for 33 yards (74-J.Curhan).
Swing +17.1 for CardinalsExpected points +6.41 for CardinalsThe model had Seahawks 5 points higher than the market did.play 106
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 10:12SEA +17% win prob(10:12) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right intended for 25-T.Homer INTERCEPTED by 34-J.Thompson [45-D.Gardeck] at SEA 34. 34-J.Thompson pushed ob at SEA 1 for 33 yards (74-J.Curhan).
4th · 4:45ARI +17% win prob(4:45) (Shotgun) 20-R.Penny up the middle for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 13:22ARI +15% win prob(13:22) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 2:02ARI +15% win prob(2:02) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 18-F.Swain for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:55SEA +12% win prob(14:55) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at SEA 16 for -9 yards (55-C.Jones). FUMBLES (55-C.Jones) [55-C.Jones], RECOVERED by ARI-94-Z.Allen at SEA 16. 94-Z.Allen for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 9:52ARI +10% win prob(9:52) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 14-D.Metcalf to ARI 17 for 31 yards (34-J.Thompson).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Russell Wilson's 4-yard rushing touchdown with 13:22 left in the 4th put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
4th1:17Matt Prater·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder A.Lee · snap A.Brewer+338–30
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Seahawkscategory by categoryCardinals
Seahawks5–2Cardinals
432Total yards305
7.7Yards per play4.2
45%Success rate47%
67%Third-down rate50%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
10Explosive plays5
19First downs19
1Sacks taken5
2Turnovers1
The read
Seahawks ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.18Seahawks: +0.18 expected points added per play
−0.02Cardinals: −0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.18Seahawks: +0.18 expected points added per play
−0.07Cardinals: −0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.18Seahawks: +0.18 expected points added per play
+0.07Cardinals: +0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 56 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 72 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 6, Cardinals 4.
NoteSeahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs -0.02.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 18Against their seasonTendencies
ARI's sack or hit rate, 25.0%, is past their previous high of 22.7% in week 1 — the highest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
A 2.3-swing turn from week 17.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · +0.2 vs their 12.3%, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (+0.03× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Cardinals25.0%
leaned — got home · +8.6 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (+1.75× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteARI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 25.0%, 8.6 points above their season mean of 16.4% and 1.7 times their own 4.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
60Phil HaynesG · Every snap100%58 snaps
68Damien LewisG · Every snap100%58 snaps
74Jake CurhanT · Every snap100%58 snaps
3Russell WilsonQB · Every snap100%58 snaps
76Duane BrownT · Every snap100%58 snaps
77Ethan PocicC · Every snap100%58 snaps
81Gerald EverettTE · Full-time95%55 snaps
14DK MetcalfWR · Full-time88%51 snaps
16Tyler LockettWR · Full-time88%51 snaps
20Rashaad PennyRB · Heavy rotation74%43 snaps
84Colby ParkinsonTE · Heavy rotation62%36 snaps
18Freddie SwainWR · Rotational33%19 snaps
25Travis HomerRB · Situational22%13 snaps
1D'Wayne EskridgeWR · Situational21%12 snaps
19Penny HartWR · Situational7%4 snaps
31DeeJay DallasRB · Situational3%2 snaps
85Tyler MabryTE · Situational3%2 snaps
44Nick BelloreLB · Situational2%1 snap
13Aaron FullerWR · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 5
John ReidCBGabe JacksonGBobby WagnerMLBJacob EasonQBWill DisslyTE
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Blessuan AustinCBGeno SmithQB
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
73Max GarciaC · Every snap100%76 snaps
67Justin PughG · Every snap100%76 snaps
74D.J. HumphriesT · Every snap100%76 snaps
61Rodney HudsonC · Every snap100%76 snaps
1Kyler MurrayQB · Every snap100%76 snaps
68Kelvin BeachumT · Full-time96%73 snaps
86Zach ErtzTE · Full-time92%70 snaps
13Christian KirkWR · Full-time89%68 snaps
18A.J. GreenWR · Full-time89%68 snaps
85Antoine WesleyWR · Heavy rotation75%57 snaps
6James ConnerRB · Heavy rotation61%46 snaps
26Eno BenjaminRB · Rotational33%25 snaps
81Darrell DanielsTE · Rotational32%24 snaps
83Greg DortchWR · Situational16%12 snaps
29Jonathan WardRB · Situational7%5 snaps
79Josh JonesG · Situational4%3 snaps
41David WellsTE · Situational4%3 snaps
17Andy IsabellaWR · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Marco WilsonCBJordan PhillipsDETrace McSorleyQBChase EdmondsRBJoshua MilesTDemetrius HarrisTERondale MooreWR
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Wilson scrambles+19% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(13:22) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 13:22 · Seahawks · 3rd & goal at ARI 4 · gained 4 · +2.49 EP · +19.3% win probability
169 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 87 yards from the ARI 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
42%
Yards
736
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50+0.0466%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR30-0.1640%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR24+0.6263%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.1156%
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, five linebackers and three backsIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFive
Seahawks0Cardinals6
Touchdown3 plays
Seahawks0Cardinals7
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Seahawks6Cardinals7
Seahawks7Cardinals7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Cardinals 43
Punt6 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 34
Punt8 plays, from the Seahawks 22 to midfield
The period ended18 plays, from the Cardinals 11 to the Seahawks 36
2nd quarter49 plays
Seahawks7Cardinals10
Field goal5 plays, from the Seahawks 32 to the Seahawks 21
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Seahawks13Cardinals10
Seahawks14Cardinals10
Touchdown12 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Cardinals 5
Punt11 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 37
Seahawks17Cardinals10
Field goal13 plays, from the Seahawks 29 to the Cardinals 19
The period ended8 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 38
3rd quarter40 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Seahawks17Cardinals16
Seahawks17Cardinals17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Cardinals 23 to the Seahawks 20
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.3 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 28
Seahawks17Cardinals23
Seahawks17Cardinals24
Touchdown3 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Cardinals 49
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 12 to the Cardinals 21
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, five linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Seahawks23Cardinals24
Seahawks24Cardinals24
Touchdown6 plays, from the Seahawks 28 to the Cardinals 25
Fumble lost5 plays
4th quarter48 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Seahawks30Cardinals24
Seahawks31Cardinals24
Touchdown4 plays, from the Cardinals 10 to the Cardinals 4
Seahawks31Cardinals27
Field goal15 plays, from the Cardinals 21 to the Seahawks 8
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSix defenders
Seahawks37Cardinals27
Seahawks38Cardinals27
Touchdown5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 38
Seahawks38Cardinals30
Field goal17 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Seahawks 8
The period ended6 plays, from the Cardinals 47 to the Cardinals 30
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Seahawkscategory by categoryCardinals
Seahawks0
Cardinals6
