2021 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 9, 2022 · SoFi Stadium

San Francisco 49ersWinner

Los Angeles Rams

LA -3 upsetO 46.5 ✓DomeRams closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

San Francisco 49ers 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 7:29, LA +35% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 7:29SF — LA SF ball · 3rd & 6SF 53%

(7:29) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 15-J.Jennings to LA 24 for 34 yards (32-T.Howard; 11-D.Williams).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 7:29LA +35% win prob(7:29) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 15-J.Jennings to LA 24 for 34 yards (32-T.Howard; 11-D.Williams).
Q4 · 0:21SF +32% win prob(:21) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at LA 34 for -3 yards (91-A.Armstead).
OT · 2:00SF +29% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right intended for 3-O.Beckham INTERCEPTED by 20-A.Thomas [98-A.Key] at SF 20. 20-A.Thomas ran ob at SF 20 for no gain.
OT · 2:48SF +22% win prob(2:48) 9-R.Gould 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-44-K.Juszczyk.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	49ers	Rams
Offensive plays	66	64
Total yards	449 (edge)	265
Yards per play	6.8 (edge)	4.1
Expected points added / play	0.11 (edge)	0.04
Success rate	52% (edge)	38%
Dropback rate	53%	58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.17	0.34 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.05 (edge)	-0.37
Third downs	9/14 (edge)	10/17
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	11 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	23 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	5
Turnovers	2	2

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs 0.04.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Jimmy GaroppoloQB

23/32, 316 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

3.7 expected points added · +4.4% completion over expected

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

21/32, 238 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

12.6 expected points added · -2.0% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Elijah MitchellRB

21 att, 85 yds, 0 TD

-2.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Deebo SamuelWR

8 att, 45 yds, 1 TD

2.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Cooper KuppWR

7/7 for 118 yds, 1 TD

22% of team targets · 13.7 expected points added

Receiving · SF

Brandon AiyukWR

6/7 for 107 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 5.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LA	LA 13	14	67	8:53	Turnover on downs
2	SF	SF 8	8	15	4:16	Punt
3	LA	LA 39	13	50	6:25	Touchdown
4	SF	SF 25	5	-18	2:12	Punt
5	LA	SF 19	4	19	1:30	Touchdown
6	SF	SF 25	6	25	3:01	Interception
7	LA	LA 21	7	13	3:05	Punt
8	SF	SF 15	6	61	0:38	Turnover on downs
9	SF	SF 25	9	75	4:28	Touchdown
10	LA	LA 25	5	4	1:44	Punt
11	SF	SF 26	12	74	7:02	Touchdown
12	LA	LA 25	4	-6	0:53	Interception
13	SF	SF 32	4	3	1:06	Punt
14	LA	LA 18	7	14	1:59	Punt
15	SF	SF 23	8	60	5:06	Interception
16	LA	LA 8	10	77	5:13	Touchdown
17	SF	SF 25	5	-8	0:39	Punt
18	LA	LA 40	4	5	0:23	Punt
19	SF	SF 12	6	83	1:01	Touchdown
20	LA	LA 25	3	9	0:26	Turnover on downs
21	SF	SF 25	13	79	7:15	Turnover on downs
22	LA	LA 18	6	13	0:53	Interception

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 83 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jimmy Garoppolo	23/32	316	1	2	3	3.7
Deebo Samuel	1/1	24	1	0	0	2.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Elijah Mitchell	21	85	4.0	0	-2.2
Deebo Samuel	8	45	5.6	1	2.4
Jamycal Hasty	1	4	4.0	0	0.7
Jimmy Garoppolo	1	1	1.0	0	0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Brandon Aiyuk	6	7	107	0	22%	5.4
Deebo Samuel	4	6	95	0	19%	5.0
Jauan Jennings	6	7	94	2	22%	9.4
Jamycal Hasty	2	3	21	0	9%	0.1
Trent Sherfield	1	1	13	0	3%	2.0
George Kittle	5	7	10	0	22%	-7.4
Travis Benjamin	0	1	0	0	3%	-3.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Dre Greenlaw	5	7	0.0	0	0
Dontae Johnson	6	1	0.0	0	0
Jimmie Ward	2	4	0.0	0	0
Arik Armstead	3	3	2.5	0	0
Fred Warner	3	3	0.5	0	0
Emmanuel Moseley	4	1	0.0	1	1
Nick Bosa	2	3	0.5	0	0
Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles	1	2	0.0	0	0
Trent Sherfield	2	0	0.0	0	0
D.J. Jones	1	1	1.0	0	1

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	21/32	238	3	2	5	12.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Sony Michel	21	43	2.0	-9.5
Cooper Kupp	1	18	18.0	1.1
Cam Akers	5	3	0.6	-1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cooper Kupp	7	7	118	1	22%	13.7
Tyler Higbee	6	8	55	2	25%	5.9
Van Jefferson	2	3	31	0	9%	3.1
Odell Beckham	2	5	18	0	16%	1.7
Cam Akers	3	3	10	0	9%	-0.6
Sony Michel	1	4	6	0	13%	-1.8
Ben Skowronek	0	2	0	0	6%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Troy Reeder	4	4	1.0	0	1
Taylor Rapp	5	2	0.0	1	1
Travin Howard	4	2	0.0	0	1
Jordan Fuller	3	3	0.0	0	0
A'Shawn Robinson	2	4	1.0	0	0
Terrell Burgess	2	3	0.0	0	0
Nick Scott	2	2	0.0	0	1
Darious Williams	2	2	0.0	0	0
Von Miller	4	0	1.0	0	0
Aaron Donald	1	3	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LA -3
Closing total: 46.5
SF moneyline: +150
LA moneyline: -170

Rams closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 51 — over by 4.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Jerome Boger
Rest: SF 7 days · LA 7 days
Coaches: Kyle Shanahan vs Sean McVay

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.