For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 8:24 AM ET · 16 to play
Tennessee Titans 28, Texans 25 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 4:08, 2nd and 10, on Danny Amendola — 8.4 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 4:08 · 2nd and 10
Danny Amendola
Texans
(4:08) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep right to 89-D.Amendola for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Titans closed -10.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Tennessee Titans 28–25 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 4:08, Texans +8.4% win probability on one snap.
8.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Rex BurkheadTexansQ1 12:23(12:23) 28-R.Burkhead left guard to HOU 43 for 3 yards (41-Z.Cunningham).
6.5pts
Nick Westbrook-IkhineTitansQ4 10:20(10:20) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine pushed ob at HOU 34 for 36 yards (23-E.Murray).
5.6pts
What separated them
Red zone
Titans won this one — 4 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Texans at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Titans won this one — 8 of 13 on third down, against Texans at 4 of 11 on third down.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Titans won this one — +0.57 expected points per dropback, against Texans at +0.24 expected points per dropback.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Texans owned this one and still lost it — +0.05 expected points per carry, against Titans at -0.08 expected points per carry.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 17.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 38 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Titans157 of 167 plays carry both curves
(4:08) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep right to 89-D.Amendola for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +8.4 for TexansExpected points +3.20 for TexansThe model had Texans 6 points higher than the market did.play 154
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 4:08HOU +8% win prob(4:08) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep right to 89-D.Amendola for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 12:23HOU +6% win prob(12:23) 28-R.Burkhead left guard to HOU 43 for 3 yards (41-Z.Cunningham).
4th · 10:20HOU +6% win prob(10:20) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine pushed ob at HOU 34 for 36 yards (23-E.Murray).
1st · 1:26TEN +5% win prob(1:26) 14-R.Bullock 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.
4th · 8:25HOU +5% win prob(8:25) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep middle to 86-A.Firkser to HOU 6 for 24 yards (8-T.Brooks).
4th · 2:53HOU +4% win prob(2:53) (Shotgun) 40-D.Hilliard left guard to HOU 46 for 2 yards (55-D.Walker). Houston challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #3.)
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Anthony Firkser's 5-yard touchdown catch with 7:45 left in the 2nd put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd7:45Anthony Firkser·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Tannehillfrom Ryan TannehillLead never changed again+77–0
2nd1:40A.J. Brown·14-yd TD catch14-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Tannehillfrom Ryan Tannehill+714–0
2nd0:15Nick Westbrook-Ikhine·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Tannehillfrom Ryan Tannehill+721–0
3rd9:54Chris Moore·28-yd TD catch28-yard touchdown catchfrom Davis Millsfrom Davis Mills+721–7
3rd2:17Ka'imi Fairbairn·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap J.Weeks+321–10
4th11:48Danny Amendola·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Davis Millsfrom Davis Mills · two-point good+821–18
4th7:04Julio Jones·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Tannehillfrom Ryan Tannehill+728–18
4th4:08Danny Amendola·26-yd TD catch26-yard touchdown catchfrom Davis Millsfrom Davis Mills+728–25
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Titanscategory by categoryTexans
Titans6–2Texans
407Total yards357
6.5Yards per play6.4
44%Success rate46%
62%Third-down rate36%
4Red-zone touchdowns1
9Explosive plays10
22First downs19
1Sacks taken2
0Turnovers0
The read
Titans ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.57 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.26Titans: +0.26 expected points added per play
+0.18Texans: +0.18 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.57Titans: +0.57 expected points added per play
+0.24Texans: +0.24 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.08Titans: −0.08 expected points added per play
+0.05Texans: +0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 63 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Texans’s 56 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Titans 4, Texans 4.
NoteTitans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs 0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
HOU's sack or hit rate turned over: 7.7% in week 17 against 21.2% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 12 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.8 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.94× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Texans21.2%
leaned — got home · +9.4 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+1.63× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteHOU's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 21.2%, 9.4 points above their season mean of 11.8% and 1.6 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
76Rodger SaffoldG · Every snap100%68 snaps
72David QuessenberryG · Every snap100%68 snaps
77Taylor LewanT · Every snap100%68 snaps
64Nate DavisG · Every snap100%68 snaps
60Ben JonesC · Every snap100%68 snaps
17Ryan TannehillQB · Every snap100%68 snaps
11A.J. BrownWR · Full-time82%56 snaps
15Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Heavy rotation74%50 snaps
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Mills pass+13% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(4:08) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep right to 89-D.Amendola for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 4:08 · Texans · 2nd & 10 at TEN 26 · gained 26 · +3.20 EP · +13.0% win probability
155 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 94 yards from the TEN 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
+0.12
Success rate
41%
Yards
760
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.3763%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.2672%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.2562%
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR12+0.3142%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.1450%
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Texans 18 to the Texans 43
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 17 to the Titans 19
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 44 to the Titans 41
No good13 plays, from the Titans 8 to the Texans 24
The period ended4 plays, from the Texans 32 to the Texans 47
2nd quarter54 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Texans 44 to midfield
Titans6Texans0
Titans7Texans0
Touchdown14 plays, from the Titans 6 to the Texans 1
Punt8 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 45
Titans13Texans0
Titans14Texans0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Titans 15 to the Texans 14
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 22 to the Texans 27
Titans20Texans0
Titans21Texans0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Titans 36 to the Texans 4
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 27 to the Titans 35
Titans21Texans6
Titans21Texans7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Texans 28 to the Titans 28
Punt7 plays, from the Titans 23 to the Titans 24
Titans21Texans10
Field goal8 plays, from the Texans 35 to the Titans 13
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 33
The period ended3 plays, from the Texans 18 to the Titans 45
4th quarter39 plays
Titans21Texans16
Titans21Texans18
Touchdown7 plays, from the Titans 45 to the Titans 4
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.5 seconds
Titans27Texans18
Titans28Texans18
Touchdown10 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Texans 3
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Titans28Texans24
Titans28Texans25
Touchdown10 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Titans 26
The period ended12 plays, from the Titans 28 to the Texans 35
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
