2021 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 9, 2022 · NRG Stadium

Tennessee TitansWinner

Houston Texans

TEN -10.5 no coverO 43 ✓DomeTitans closed -10.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Tennessee Titans 28–25 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 4:08, HOU +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 4:08TEN — HOU HOU ball · 2nd & 10TEN 94%

(4:08) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep right to 89-D.Amendola for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 4:08HOU +8% win prob(4:08) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep right to 89-D.Amendola for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 12:23HOU +6% win prob(12:23) 28-R.Burkhead left guard to HOU 43 for 3 yards (41-Z.Cunningham).
Q4 · 10:20HOU +6% win prob(10:20) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine pushed ob at HOU 34 for 36 yards (23-E.Murray).
Q1 · 1:26TEN +5% win prob(1:26) 14-R.Bullock 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Titans	Texans
Offensive plays	63	56
Total yards	407 (edge)	357
Yards per play	6.5 (edge)	6.4
Expected points added / play	0.26 (edge)	0.18
Success rate	44%	46% (edge)
Dropback rate	52%	70%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.57 (edge)	0.24
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.08	0.05 (edge)
Third downs	8/13 (edge)	4/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9	10 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	0	0

Titans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs 0.18.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

Davis MillsQB

23/33, 301 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

10.7 expected points added · +6.8% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Ryan TannehillQB

23/32, 287 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

18.7 expected points added · +7.9% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

D'Onta ForemanRB

21 att, 69 yds, 0 TD

-4.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TEN

Dontrell HilliardRB

9 att, 57 yds, 0 TD

1.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Danny AmendolaWR

7/9 for 113 yds, 2 TD

28% of team targets · 9.4 expected points added

Receiving · TEN

Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR

4/5 for 78 yds, 1 TD

16% of team targets · 8.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	HOU	HOU 18	11	25	4:16	Punt
2	TEN	TEN 17	4	2	1:41	Punt
3	HOU	TEN 44	4	3	0:55	Punt
4	TEN	TEN 8	13	68	6:46	Turnover on downs
5	HOU	HOU 32	5	18	2:11	Punt
6	TEN	TEN 6	12	94	6:31	Touchdown
7	HOU	HOU 25	8	18	3:20	Punt
8	TEN	TEN 15	10	85	2:46	Touchdown
9	HOU	HOU 22	5	5	0:50	Punt
10	TEN	TEN 36	6	19	0:33	Touchdown
11	HOU	HOU 18	2	0	0:11	End of half
12	TEN	TEN 27	5	2	1:32	Punt
13	HOU	HOU 28	9	72	3:42	Touchdown
14	TEN	TEN 23	5	17	3:28	Punt
15	HOU	HOU 35	8	52	4:04	Turnover on downs
16	TEN	TEN 25	5	8	1:33	Punt
17	HOU	HOU 18	9	84	4:01	Touchdown
18	TEN	TEN 25	10	75	4:40	Touchdown
19	HOU	HOU 25	9	80	2:56	Touchdown
20	TEN	TEN 28	9	37	4:04	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 94 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	23/32	287	4	0	1	18.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
D'Onta Foreman	21	69	3.3	-4.1
Dontrell Hilliard	9	57	6.3	1.8
Ryan Tannehill	2	-2	-1.0	-1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	4	5	78	1	16%	8.5
A.J. Brown	4	6	68	1	19%	4.9
Julio Jones	5	9	58	1	28%	1.9
Anthony Firkser	4	4	56	1	13%	7.2
D'Onta Foreman	1	2	15	0	6%	0.7
Khari Blasingame	1	1	5	0	3%	0.0
Chester Rogers	2	2	4	0	6%	-0.6
Geoff Swaim	1	1	2	0	3%	-0.5
Dontrell Hilliard	1	1	1	0	3%	-0.2
Racey McMath	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Zach Cunningham	6	3	0.0	0
Elijah Molden	6	0	0.0	0
Kevin Byard	3	2	0.0	0
David Long Jr.	2	3	0.0	0
Harold Landry	3	1	0.0	0
Janoris Jenkins	2	1	0.0	0
Denico Autry	3	0	0.0	1
Matthias Farley	2	0	0.0	0
Jeffery Simmons	1	1	1.0	0
Chris Jackson	1	1	0.0	0

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Davis Mills	23/33	301	3	0	2	10.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
David Johnson	5	28	5.6	0.9
Rex Burkhead	12	24	2.0	-0.0
Davis Mills	4	12	3.0	-1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Danny Amendola	7	9	113	2	28%	9.4
Nico Collins	3	7	67	0	22%	1.0
Rex Burkhead	3	4	42	0	13%	2.0
Chris Moore	3	3	38	1	9%	2.5
Brandin Cooks	3	4	26	0	13%	0.9
David Johnson	3	4	8	0	13%	-2.4
Antony Auclair	1	1	7	0	3%	0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Terrence Brooks	5	3	0.0	1
Tavierre Thomas	4	3	0.0	0
Neville Hewitt	4	3	0.0	0
Christian Kirksey	2	4	0.0	1
Eric Murray	4	1	0.0	0
Desmond King	2	3	0.0	0
Lonnie Johnson	3	1	0.0	0
Roy Lopez	3	1	0.0	0
Kamu Grugier-Hill	2	2	0.0	0
Maliek Collins	1	2	1.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TEN -10.5
Closing total: 43
TEN moneyline: -575
HOU moneyline: +410

Titans closed -10.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 43; the game landed 53 — over by 10.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: NRG Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: TEN 7 days · HOU 7 days
Coaches: Mike Vrabel vs David Culley

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.