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polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:44 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 9, 2022 · MetLife Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 18
It turned at Q3 3:48, 1st and 10, on Bobby McCain — 11.2 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Washington Commanders 22–7. Biggest swing: Q3 3:48, Commanders +11.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 3:48 · 1st and 10
Bobby McCain
Commanders
(3:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Fromm pass short right intended for 88-E.Engram INTERCEPTED by 20-B.McCain at NYG 30. 20-B.McCain for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Commanders won this one — +0.18 expected points per carry, against Giants at -0.58 expected points per carry.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Commanders won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Giants at 3 chunk plays.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Commanders won this one — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Giants at 27% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Commanders won this one — no giveaways, against Giants at 3 giveaways.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 13.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
(3:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Fromm pass short right intended for 88-E.Engram INTERCEPTED by 20-B.McCain at NYG 30. 20-B.McCain for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Joey Slye's 23-yard field goal with 9:07 left in the 1st put Washington Commanders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Joey Slye23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap C.CheesemanLead never changed again+33–06 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Commanderscategory by categoryGiants
Commanders ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.58 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 59 snaps at a 39% dropback rate against Giants’s 59 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 3, Giants 2.
Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.45.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYG's sack or hit rate, 26.1%, is past their previous high of 21.7% in week 7 — the highest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
23 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points. · +2.2σ from their own normal
NYG's fourth-and-short go rate, 80.0%, is past their previous high of 60.0% in week 5 — the highest of their 13 charted games through week 18.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 13 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 26.1 points. · +2.0σ from their own normal
WAS's early-down pass rate turned over: 63.6% in week 17 against 31.8% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.8 points. · −1.9σ from their own normal
WAS's pass rate over expected turned over: +0.4 pts in week 17 against −15.1 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 26 pts
Over Expected room →Commanders-15.1 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −11.3 vs their -3.8 pts, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−1.60× that swing) · 58 snaps
Giants-10.9 ptsinside their normal wobble · −9.1 vs their -1.9 pts, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (−0.83× that swing) · 59 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 22% to 94%
Tendencies room →Commanders31.8%leaned — ran early · −22.5 vs their 54.3%, and they swing ±11.8 week to week (−1.91× that swing) · 44 early downs
Giants55.3%right on their number · −2.5 vs their 57.7%, and they swing ±14.0 week to week (−0.18× that swing) · 38 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -38% to 101%
Fourth Down room →Commanders33.3%right on their number · −1.9 vs their 35.2%, and they swing ±25.4 week to week (−0.07× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Giants80.0%leaned — went for it · +51.0 vs their 29.0%, and they swing ±26.1 week to week (+1.96× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 34%
Tendencies room →Commanders24.3%leaned — got home · +8.9 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+1.25× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Giants26.1%off script — got home · +14.4 vs their 11.6%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+2.15× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NYG's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 26.1%, 14.4 points above their season mean of 11.6% and 2.2 times their own 6.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
New York Giants
48 dressed · 3 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 3
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · WAS
9/18, 120 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-8.3 expected points added · -8.7% completion over expected
Passing · NYG
15/31, 103 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-19.3 expected points added · -16.4% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Darius Slayton banked 6.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio GibsonRB · Committee Back | 22.1 | +1.8 | 54% | 43% | 18% | 17% | 21 car, 146 yd, 1 TD · 1/3, 5 yd |
| Terry McLaurinWR · Alpha Receiver | 13.3 | +4.3 | 80% | 83% | 35% | 58% | 4/6, 93 yd |
| Darius SlaytonWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.9 | +6.0 | 70% | 73% | 10% | 17% | 2/3, 29 yd, 1 TD |
| Saquon BarkleyRB · Committee Back | 7.9 | −1.6 | 60% | 51% | 13% | 12% | 11 car, 30 yd · 3/4, 19 yd |
| Jake FrommQB · Starter QB | 7.4 | −3.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/31, 103 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 5 car, 53 yd |
| Kyle RudolphTE · Featured Receiver | 5.7 | −2.0 | 57% | 51% | 20% | 14% | 4/6, 17 yd |
| Jaret PattersonRB · Receiving Back | 5.5 | −0.1 | 29% | 43% | 12% | 3% | 6 car, 21 yd · 2/2, 14 yd |
| Kenny GolladayWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.2 | −0.7 | 72% | 76% | 17% | 34% | 3/5, 22 yd |
| Taylor HeinickeQB · Starter QB | 5.1 | −5.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 9/18, 120 yd · 2 car, 3 yd |
| Devontae BookerRB | 4.6 | −2.0 | 50% | 43% | 7% | 0% | 8 car, 14 yd · 2/2, 12 yd |
| Jonathan WilliamsRB | 4.5 | +0.8 | 19% | 9% | 0% | — | 7 car, 45 yd |
| John BatesTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −2.1 | 100% | 96% | 12% | 11% | 1/2, 5 yd |
| Evan EngramTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −4.7 | 63% | 68% | 17% | 3% | 1/5, 4 yd |
| Adam HumphriesWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −1.5 | 63% | 65% | 12% | 10% | 1/2, 3 yd |
| DeAndre CarterWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.1 | −0.8 | 20% | 26% | 6% | 0% | 1 car, 11 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Cullen GillaspiaRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| David SillsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −5.1 | 27% | 22% | 10% | 16% | 0/3, 0 yd |
| Alex ArmahRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Cam SimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.6 | 66% | 65% | 6% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Alex BachmanWR · Rotational Receiver | -0.3 | −1.1 | 42% | 43% | 0% | — | 1 car, -3 yd |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(3:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Fromm pass short right intended for 88-E.Engram INTERCEPTED by 20-B.McCain at NYG 30. 20-B.McCain for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 3:48 · Giants · 1st & 10 at NYG 26 · gained nothing · -8.41 EP · −18.0% win probability
147 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 159 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 84 yards from the NYG 14 for a opp touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
159 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
159 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Commanders3
Giants0Commanders6Giants0Commanders12Giants0Commanders12Giants6Commanders12Giants7Commanders18Giants7Commanders19Giants7Commanders22Giants7Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Commanders at Giants, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 9/18 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 3 | −8.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 21 | 146 | 7.0 | 1 | +2.7 |
| Jonathan Williams | 7 | 45 | 6.4 | 0 | +4.3 |
| Jaret Patterson |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 4 | 6 | 93 | 0 | 35% | +3.8 |
| Jaret Patterson | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Holcomb | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamin Davis | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darryl Roberts |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Fromm | 15/31 | 103 | 1 | 2 | 3 | −19.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_18_WAS_NYG
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Commanders closed -6 and covered, winning by 15.
Total closed 36; the game landed 29 — under by 7.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 6 |
| 21 |
| 3.5 |
| 0 |
| −0.7 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | −0.3 |
| 12% |
| +0.3 |
| Antonio Gibson | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 18% | −3.6 |
| John Bates | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 12% | −0.3 |
| Adam Humphries | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 12% | −1.3 |
| DeAndre Carter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −0.6 |
| Cam Sims | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −1.4 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jonathan Allen | 0 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Daron Payne | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| William Bradley-King | 0 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Danny Johnson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Smith-Williams | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Darrick Forrest | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kendall Fuller | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jake Fromm | 5 | 53 | 10.6 | 0 | +4.5 |
| Saquon Barkley | 11 | 30 | 2.7 | 0 | −4.4 |
| Devontae Booker | 8 | 14 | 1.8 | 0 | −3.8 |
| Alex Bachman | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 | −3.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Slayton | 2 | 3 | 29 | 1 | 10% | +2.1 |
| Kenny Golladay | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 17% | +2.3 |
| Saquon Barkley | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 13% | +2.8 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 4 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 20% | −1.4 |
| Devontae Booker | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 7% | +1.7 |
| Evan Engram | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 17% | −12.8 |
| David Sills | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10% | −3.5 |
| Elijhaa Penny | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −1.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tae Crowder | 3 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Logan Ryan | 5 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier McKinney | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Carter | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dexter Lawrence | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylon Smith | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Julian Love | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonard Williams | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Austin Johnson | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Azeez Ojulari | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
