2021 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 9, 2022 · MetLife Stadium

Washington CommandersWinner

New York Giants

WAS -6 ✓U 36 ✓Commanders closed -6 and covered, winning by 15.

Washington Commanders 22–7. Biggest swing: Q3 3:48, WAS +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 3:48WAS — NYG NYG ball · 1st & 10WAS 84%

(3:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Fromm pass short right intended for 88-E.Engram INTERCEPTED by 20-B.McCain at NYG 30. 20-B.McCain for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 3:48WAS +11% win prob(3:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Fromm pass short right intended for 88-E.Engram INTERCEPTED by 20-B.McCain at NYG 30. 20-B.McCain for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 11:29NYG +8% win prob(11:29) (Shotgun) 17-J.Fromm pass deep middle to 86-D.Slayton for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 5:02NYG +8% win prob(5:02) (Run formation) PENALTY on WAS-98-M.Ioannidis, Neutral Zone Infraction, 6 yards, enforced at WAS 47 - No Play.
Q2 · 3:24WAS +7% win prob(3:24) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke sacked at NYG 48 for -7 yards (59-L.Carter).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Commanders	Giants
Offensive plays	59	59
Total yards	325 (edge)	177
Yards per play	5.5 (edge)	3.0
Expected points added / play	-0.03 (edge)	-0.45
Success rate	47% (edge)	27%
Dropback rate	39%	63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.36 (edge)	-0.38
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.18 (edge)	-0.58
Third downs	3/13	6/17 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	17 (edge)	8
Sacks taken	3	3
Turnovers	0 (edge)	3

Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.45.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · WAS

Taylor HeinickeQB

9/18, 120 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-8.3 expected points added · -8.7% completion over expected

Passing · NYG

Jake FrommQB

15/31, 103 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-19.3 expected points added · -16.4% completion over expected

Rushing · WAS

Antonio GibsonRB

21 att, 146 yds, 1 TD

2.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYG

Jake FrommQB

5 att, 53 yds, 0 TD

4.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · WAS

Terry McLaurinWR

4/6 for 93 yds, 0 TD

35% of team targets · 3.8 expected points added

Receiving · NYG

Darius SlaytonWR

2/3 for 29 yds, 1 TD

10% of team targets · 2.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	WAS	WAS 19	12	76	5:57	Turnover on downs
2	NYG	NYG 20	11	39	6:20	Turnover on downs
3	WAS	WAS 35	6	19	2:51	Punt
4	NYG	NYG 20	4	2	1:37	Punt
5	WAS	WAS 28	4	3	1:54	Punt
6	NYG	NYG 34	4	-3	1:58	Punt
7	WAS	WAS 23	7	37	3:41	Punt
8	NYG	NYG 3	4	3	1:34	Punt
9	WAS	NYG 46	4	-2	1:33	Punt
10	NYG	NYG 20	4	7	1:01	Punt
11	WAS	WAS 31	5	44	1:34	Turnover on downs
12	NYG	NYG 24	8	16	3:15	Punt
13	WAS	WAS 9	11	54	6:01	Punt
14	NYG	NYG 14	4	12	2:03	Defensive touchdown
15	NYG	NYG 31	16	69	7:17	Touchdown
16	WAS	WAS 28	10	72	4:56	Touchdown
17	NYG	NYG 25	2	-7	0:08	Fumble
18	WAS	NYG 12	4	7	1:40	Turnover on downs
19	NYG	NYG 26	5	-7	0:33	Punt
20	WAS	WAS 48	7	15	2:10	Punt
21	NYG	NYG 20	9	46	1:57	Interception

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Commanders gained 76 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Taylor Heinicke	9/18	120	0	0	3	-8.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Antonio Gibson	21	146	7.0	1	2.7
Jonathan Williams	7	45	6.4	0	4.3
Jaret Patterson	6	21	3.5	0	-0.7
DeAndre Carter	1	11	11.0	0	0.6
Taylor Heinicke	2	3	1.5	0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Terry McLaurin	4	6	93	35%	3.8
Jaret Patterson	2	2	14	12%	0.3
Antonio Gibson	1	3	5	18%	-3.6
John Bates	1	2	5	12%	-0.3
Adam Humphries	1	2	3	12%	-1.3
DeAndre Carter	0	1	0	6%	-0.6
Cam Sims	0	1	0	6%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Cole Holcomb	5	5	0.0	0
Jamin Davis	3	5	0.0	0
Darryl Roberts	3	2	0.0	0
Jonathan Allen	0	4	0.5	0
Daron Payne	2	2	0.0	0
William Bradley-King	0	4	0.5	0
Danny Johnson	1	2	0.0	0
James Smith-Williams	1	2	0.5	1
Darrick Forrest	2	1	0.0	0
Kendall Fuller	1	2	0.0	1

New York Giants

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jake Fromm	15/31	103	1	2	3	-19.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jake Fromm	5	53	10.6	4.5
Saquon Barkley	11	30	2.7	-4.4
Devontae Booker	8	14	1.8	-3.8
Alex Bachman	1	-3	-3.0	-3.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Darius Slayton	2	3	29	1	10%	2.1
Kenny Golladay	3	5	22	0	17%	2.3
Saquon Barkley	3	4	19	0	13%	2.8
Kyle Rudolph	4	6	17	0	20%	-1.4
Devontae Booker	2	2	12	0	7%	1.7
Evan Engram	1	5	4	0	17%	-12.8
David Sills	0	3	0	0	10%	-3.5
Elijhaa Penny	0	2	0	0	7%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Tae Crowder	3	7	0.0	0
Logan Ryan	5	2	1.0	0
Xavier McKinney	5	2	0.0	0
Lorenzo Carter	3	3	1.0	1
Dexter Lawrence	3	2	0.0	0
Jaylon Smith	3	1	0.0	1
Julian Love	1	3	0.0	0
Leonard Williams	1	3	1.0	0
Austin Johnson	1	3	0.0	0
Azeez Ojulari	1	2	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: WAS -6
Closing total: 36
WAS moneyline: -238
NYG moneyline: +206

Commanders closed -6 and covered, winning by 15.

Total closed 36; the game landed 29 — under by 7.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 38°F, wind 0 mph
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: WAS 7 days · NYG 7 days
Coaches: Ron Rivera vs Joe Judge

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.