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1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Giantshigher on Commanders149 of 159 plays carry both curves
(3:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Fromm pass short right intended for 88-E.Engram INTERCEPTED by 20-B.McCain at NYG 30. 20-B.McCain for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −11.2 for GiantsExpected points −8.41 for GiantsThe model had Giants 12 points higher than the market did.play 99
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 3:48WAS +11% win prob(3:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Fromm pass short right intended for 88-E.Engram INTERCEPTED by 20-B.McCain at NYG 30. 20-B.McCain for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 11:29NYG +8% win prob(11:29) (Shotgun) 17-J.Fromm pass deep middle to 86-D.Slayton for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 5:02NYG +8% win prob(5:02) (Run formation) PENALTY on WAS-98-M.Ioannidis, Neutral Zone Infraction, 6 yards, enforced at WAS 47 - No Play.
2nd · 3:24WAS +7% win prob(3:24) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke sacked at NYG 48 for -7 yards (59-L.Carter).
1st · 13:42NYG +6% win prob(13:42) (Shotgun) 24-A.Gibson right end pushed ob at WAS 39 for 7 yards (45-J.Smith).
1st · 2:47WAS +6% win prob(2:47) 81-A.Bachman right end to WAS 35 for -3 yards (52-J.Davis).
1st · 12:33
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Joey Slye's 23-yard field goal with 9:07 left in the 1st put Washington Commanders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:07Joey Slye·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap C.CheesemanLead never changed again+33–0
2nd0:03Joey Slye·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap C.Cheeseman+36–0
3rd3:48Bobby McCain·30-yd defence TD30-yard touchdownthe defence scored itthe defence scored it · two-point no good+612–0
4th4:44Joey Slye·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap C.Cheeseman+322–7
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Commanderscategory by categoryGiants
Commanders7–1Giants
325Total yards177
5.5Yards per play3.0
47%Success rate27%
23%Third-down rate35%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
10Explosive plays3
17First downs8
3Sacks taken3
0Turnovers3
The read
Commanders ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.58 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.03Commanders: −0.03 expected points added per play
−0.45Giants: −0.45 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.36Commanders: −0.36 expected points added per play
−0.38Giants: −0.38 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.18Commanders: +0.18 expected points added per play
−0.58Giants: −0.58 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 59 snaps at a 39% dropback rate against Giants’s 59 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 3, Giants 2.
NoteCommanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.45.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 18Against their seasonTendencies
NYG's sack or hit rate, 26.1%, is past their previous high of 21.7% in week 7 — the highest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
2.2 times their own weekly swing above their number.
23 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points.
high through week 18Against their seasonFourth Down
NYG's fourth-and-short go rate, 80.0%, is past their previous high of 60.0% in week 5 — the highest of their 13 charted games through week 18.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 13 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 26.1 points.
WAS's early-down pass rate turned over: 63.6% in week 17 against 31.8% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.8 points.
WAS's pass rate over expected turned over: +0.4 pts in week 17 against −15.1 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 26 pts
leaned — got home · +8.9 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+1.25× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Giants26.1%
off script — got home · +14.4 vs their 11.6%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+2.15× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYG's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 26.1%, 14.4 points above their season mean of 11.6% and 2.2 times their own 6.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Giants→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Fromm pass−18% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(3:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Fromm pass short right intended for 88-E.Engram INTERCEPTED by 20-B.McCain at NYG 30. 20-B.McCain for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 3:48 · Giants · 1st & 10 at NYG 26 · gained nothing · -8.41 EP · −18.0% win probability
147 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 159 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 84 yards from the NYG 14 for a opp touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
159 of 159 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
159
EPA per play
-0.19
Success rate
36%
Yards
502
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46-0.0641%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR21-0.6881%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.2575%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.3527%
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.2143%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.5220%
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Giants2 RB, 0 TE, 1 WR3——
Giants3 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR2——
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Commanders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Commanders2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
159 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
159 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter31 plays
Commanders3Giants0
Field goal12 plays, from the Commanders 19 to the Giants 4
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Commanders 32
The period ended6 plays, from the Commanders 35 to the Giants 46
2nd quarter44 plays
Punt1 play
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Giants 22
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 28 to the Commanders 31
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 34 to the Giants 37
Punt7 plays, from the Commanders 23 to the Giants 38
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 3 to the Giants 5
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 46 to the Giants 41
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Giants 27
Commanders6Giants0
Field goal7 plays, from the Commanders 31 to the Giants 25
3rd quarter33 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Giants 24 to the Giants 37
Punt11 plays, from the Commanders 9 to the Giants 37
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Commanders12Giants0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Giants 14 to the Giants 26
The period ended8 plays, from the Giants 31 to the Giants 45
4th quarter51 plays
Commanders12Giants6
Commanders12Giants7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Giants 49 to the Commanders 22
Commanders18Giants7
Commanders19Giants7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Commanders 28 to the Giants 18
Fumble lost2 plays
Commanders22Giants7
Field goal4 plays, from the Giants 12 to the Giants 4
Punt5 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Commanders 48 to the Giants 37
Intercepted10 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Commanders 16
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
