2021 Wild Card · Mon, Jan 17, 2022 · SoFi Stadium

Arizona Cardinals

Los Angeles RamsWinner

LA -4 ✓U 49.5 ✓DomeRams closed -4 and covered, winning by 23.

Los Angeles Rams 34–11 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 11:39, ARI +7% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 11:39ARI — LA LA ball · 3rd & 10LA 69%

(11:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at LA 48 for -7 yards (44-M.Golden).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 11:39ARI +7% win prob(11:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at LA 48 for -7 yards (44-M.Golden).
Q1 · 13:44LA +5% win prob(13:44) 25-S.Michel left tackle to ARI 45 for 35 yards (34-J.Thompson). LA-77-A.Whitworth was injured during the play.
Q1 · 13:58ARI +5% win prob(13:58) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep right to 18-A.Green.
Q1 · 5:45LA +5% win prob(5:45) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 89-T.Higbee to ARI 6 for 22 yards (9-I.Simmons).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cardinals	Rams
Offensive plays	54	57
Total yards	183	375 (edge)
Yards per play	3.4	6.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.40	0.10 (edge)
Success rate	35%	39% (edge)
Dropback rate	69%	39%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.50	0.69 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.16 (edge)	-0.27
Third downs	0/9	6/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	13	15 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.40.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

13/17, 202 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

12.5 expected points added · +11.1% completion over expected

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

19/34, 137 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-22.0 expected points added · -15.3% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Sony MichelRB

13 att, 58 yds, 0 TD

-2.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LA

Cam AkersRB

17 att, 55 yds, 0 TD

-6.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Cooper KuppWR

5/7 for 61 yds, 1 TD

39% of team targets · 4.5 expected points added

Receiving · LA

Odell BeckhamWR

4/4 for 54 yds, 1 TD

22% of team targets · 5.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ARI	ARI 25	5	4	1:16	Punt
2	LA	LA 20	5	33	2:50	Punt
3	ARI	ARI 9	4	-1	0:59	Punt
4	LA	LA 48	11	62	6:05	Touchdown
5	ARI	ARI 25	5	-6	1:35	Punt
6	LA	LA 32	10	68	5:17	Touchdown
7	ARI	ARI 25	5	-1	1:28	Punt
8	LA	50	4	6	1:45	Punt
9	ARI	ARI 1	3	3	0:46	Defensive touchdown
10	ARI	ARI 13	8	35	3:13	Interception
11	LA	LA 49	4	6	2:00	Punt
12	ARI	ARI 10	4	6	0:53	Punt
13	LA	LA 42	4	5	1:18	Punt
14	ARI	ARI 14	1	0	0:35	End of half
15	LA	LA 25	10	70	4:24	Touchdown
16	ARI	ARI 25	13	68	6:25	Touchdown
17	LA	LA 31	8	60	4:16	Turnover on downs
18	ARI	ARI 25	11	48	4:42	Turnover on downs
19	LA	LA 11	10	62	5:52	Turnover on downs
20	ARI	ARI 25	6	19	1:17	Turnover on downs
21	LA	ARI 39	4	3	1:59	Punt
22	ARI	ARI 9	2	8	1:05	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Rams gained 70 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kyler Murray	19/34	137	0	2	2	-22.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Chase Edmonds	8	28	3.5	0	-3.0
James Conner	4	19	4.8	1	2.5
Eno Benjamin	4	8	2.0	0	-1.1
Kyler Murray	2	6	3.0	0	2.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Christian Kirk	6	11	51	32%	-2.0
Rondale Moore	5	6	32	18%	-5.8
Eno Benjamin	2	2	26	6%	1.5
Zach Ertz	3	4	21	12%	0.6
James Conner	1	2	5	6%	-4.1
Darrell Daniels	2	3	2	9%	-1.8
Chase Edmonds	0	1	0	3%	-0.5
Antoine Wesley	0	2	0	6%	-3.4
A.J. Green	0	3	0	9%	-2.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Jalen Thompson	5	6	0.0
Chandler Jones	6	3	0.0
Jordan Hicks	1	6	0.0
Tanner Vallejo	2	4	0.0
Byron Murphy	4	1	0.0
Zach Allen	1	3	0.0
Markus Golden	2	1	1.0
Kevin Peterson	2	1	0.0
Deionte Thompson	2	1	0.0
Budda Baker	1	2	0.0

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	13/17	202	2	0	1	12.5
Odell Beckham	1/1	40	0	0	0	2.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Sony Michel	13	58	4.5	0	-2.0
Cam Akers	17	55	3.2	0	-6.7
Matthew Stafford	6	22	3.7	1	1.6
Jake Funk	2	5	2.5	0	-2.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cooper Kupp	5	7	61	1	39%	4.5
Odell Beckham	4	4	54	1	22%	5.4
Tyler Higbee	3	4	46	0	22%	3.5
Van Jefferson	1	1	41	0	6%	3.1
Cam Akers	1	2	40	0	11%	0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
A'Shawn Robinson	3	4	0.0	0
Von Miller	6	0	1.0	0
Terrell Burgess	4	1	0.0	0
Jalen Ramsey	4	0	0.0	0
Darious Williams	2	2	0.0	0
Greg Gaines	1	3	0.5	0
Leonard Floyd	2	1	0.0	0
Troy Reeder	1	2	0.0	0
Travin Howard	1	1	0.0	2
Michael Hoecht	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LA -4
Closing total: 49.5
ARI moneyline: +158
LA moneyline: -179

Rams closed -4 and covered, winning by 23.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 45 — under by 4.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: ARI 8 days · LA 8 days
Coaches: Kliff Kingsbury vs Sean McVay

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.