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polling · 1800s tick · as of 8:44 AM ET · 15 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Wild Card · Mon, Jan 17, 2022 · SoFi Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Wild Card
It turned at Q1 11:39, 3rd and 10, on Matthew Stafford — 7.3 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Los Angeles Rams 34–11 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 11:39, Cardinals +7.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 11:39 · 3rd and 10
Matthew Stafford
Cardinals
(11:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at LA 48 for -7 yards (44-M.Golden).
7.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Rams won this one — +0.69 expected points per dropback, against Cardinals at -0.50 expected points per dropback.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Rams won this one — 6 of 13 on third down, against Cardinals at 0 of 9 on third down.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Rams won this one — +0.10 expected points per snap, against Cardinals at -0.40 expected points per snap.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Rams won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Cardinals at 3 chunk plays.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
(11:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at LA 48 for -7 yards (44-M.Golden).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Odell Beckham's 4-yard touchdown catch with 3:55 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Odell Beckham4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew StaffordLead never changed again+70–78 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Cardinalscategory by categoryRams
Rams ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.69 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 54 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Rams’s 57 at 39%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 1, Rams 4.
Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.40.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
LA's pass rate over expected, −12.7 pts, sat 15.5 points below their season number of +2.8 pts — they ran more than the situation asked by 2.8 times their own 5.5-point weekly swing.
57 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points. · −2.8σ from their own normal
LA's early-down pass rate, 31.8%, sat 26.4 points below their season number of 58.2% — they ran early by 2.8 times their own 9.6-point weekly swing.
44 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.6 points. · −2.8σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2021 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Cardinals-2.9 ptsinside their normal wobble · −3.1 vs their 0.2 pts, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−0.63× that swing) · 54 snaps
Rams-12.7 ptsoff script — ran more than the situation asked · −15.5 vs their 2.8 pts, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−2.80× that swing) · 57 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 27% to 85%
Tendencies room →Cardinals62.8%inside their normal wobble · +6.5 vs their 56.3%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (+0.57× that swing) · 43 early downs
Rams31.8%off script — ran early · −26.4 vs their 58.2%, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (−2.76× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17% to 113%
Fourth Down room →Cardinals—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 47.6%.
Rams0.0%leaned — took the kick · −28.6 vs their 28.6%, and they swing ±14.8 week to week (−1.94× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 29%
Tendencies room →Cardinals13.6%inside their normal wobble · −2.7 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
Rams10.8%right on their number · −1.9 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (−0.41× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
LA's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -12.7 pts, 15.5 points below their season mean of 2.8 pts and 2.8 times their own 5.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 8 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 8
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · LA
13/17, 202 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
12.5 expected points added · +11.1% completion over expected
Passing · ARI
19/34, 137 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-22.0 expected points added · -15.3% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
James Conner banked 1.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian KirkWR · Alpha Receiver | 11.1 | −6.7 | 88% | 84% | 32% | 49% | 6/11, 51 yd |
| James ConnerRB | 9.4 | +1.5 | 25% | 21% | 6% | 1% | 4 car, 19 yd, 1 TD · 1/2, 5 yd |
| Rondale MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.2 | 0.0 | 38% | 47% | 18% | 5% | 5/6, 32 yd |
| Eno BenjaminRB | 5.4 | +0.3 | 27% | 26% | 6% | 0% | 4 car, 8 yd · 2/2, 26 yd |
| Zach ErtzTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.1 | −1.2 | 95% | 92% | 12% | 6% | 3/4, 21 yd |
| Kyler MurrayQB · Starter QB | 4.1 | −8.6 | 96% | — | 0% | — | 19/34, 137 yd, 2 INT · 2 car, 6 yd |
| Chase EdmondsRB | 2.8 | −2.9 | 52% | 55% | 3% | 6% | 8 car, 28 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Darrell DanielsTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | −1.9 | 27% | 26% | 9% | 0% | 2/3, 2 yd |
| Antoine WesleyWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | −2.3 | 66% | 58% | 6% | 15% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| A.J. GreenWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.8 | 77% | 71% | 9% | 23% | 0/3, 0 yd |
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(3:55) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 3-O.Beckham for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 3:55 · Rams · 3rd & goal at ARI 4 · gained 4 · +2.19 EP · +5.1% win probability
148 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 158 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 158 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 75 yards from the LA 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
158 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
158 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Cardinals0
Rams6Cardinals0Rams7Cardinals0Rams13Cardinals0Rams14Cardinals0Rams20Cardinals0Rams21Cardinals0Rams27Cardinals0Rams28Cardinals6Rams28Cardinals8Rams28Cardinals8Rams31Cardinals11Rams31Cardinals11Rams34Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Cardinals at Rams, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 19/34 | 137 | 0 | 2 | 2 | −22.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Edmonds | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 0 | −3.0 |
| James Conner | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 1 | +2.5 |
| Eno Benjamin | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 6 | 11 | 51 | 0 | 32% | −2.0 |
| Rondale Moore | 5 | 6 | 32 | 0 | 18% | −5.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Thompson | 5 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chandler Jones | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Hicks | 1 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tanner Vallejo |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 13/17 | 202 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +12.5 |
| Odell Beckham | 1/1 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2.3 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_19_ARI_LA
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Rams closed -4 and covered, winning by 23.
Total closed 49.5; the game landed 45 — under by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Kyler Murray | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | +2.1 |
| Eno Benjamin | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 6% | +1.5 |
| Zach Ertz | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 12% | +0.6 |
| James Conner | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 6% | −4.1 |
| Darrell Daniels | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9% | −1.8 |
| Chase Edmonds | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Antoine Wesley | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −3.4 |
| A.J. Green | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9% | −2.8 |
| 2 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Byron Murphy | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Allen | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Markus Golden | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Peterson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deionte Thompson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Budda Baker | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sony Michel | 13 | 58 | 4.5 | 0 | −2.0 |
| Cam Akers | 17 | 55 | 3.2 | 0 | −6.7 |
| Matthew Stafford | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 1 | +1.6 |
| Jake Funk | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | −2.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 5 | 7 | 61 | 1 | 39% | +4.5 |
| Odell Beckham | 4 | 4 | 54 | 1 | 22% | +5.4 |
| Tyler Higbee | 3 | 4 | 46 | 0 | 22% | +3.5 |
| Van Jefferson | 1 | 1 | 41 | 0 | 6% | +3.1 |
| Cam Akers | 1 | 2 | 40 | 0 | 11% | +0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A'Shawn Robinson | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Von Miller | 6 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrell Burgess | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Ramsey | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darious Williams | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Gaines | 1 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonard Floyd | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Reeder | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Travin Howard | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Michael Hoecht | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
