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2021 Wild Card · Sat, Jan 15, 2022 · Paul Brown Stadium
Final
RaidersLas Vegas19
BY 7final margin
BengalsCincinnati26
Las Vegas Raiders 19 at Cincinnati Bengals 26. Final.
Bengals -6 ✓U 48.5 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Wild Card
Cincinnati Bengals 26, Raiders 19 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 1:16, 3rd and 17, on Darren Waller — 10.6 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
Bengals closed -6 and covered, winning by 7.
Cincinnati Bengals 26–19. Biggest swing: Q4 1:16, Raiders +10.6% win probability on one snap.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:16 · 3rd and 17
Darren Waller
Raiders
(1:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 83-D.Waller to CIN 19 for 23 yards (33-T.Flowers).
10.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Derek CarrBengalsQ1 3:09(3:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LV 31 for -9 yards (91-T.Hendrickson). FUMBLES (91-T.Hendrickson) [91-T.Hendrickson], RECOVERED by CIN-65-L.Ogunjobi at LV 26. 65-L.Ogunjobi to LV 15 for 11 yards (74-K.Miller).
7.7pts
Germaine PrattBengalsQ4 0:17(:17) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle intended for 7-Z.Jones INTERCEPTED by 57-G.Pratt at CIN 2. 57-G.Pratt to CIN 4 for 2 yards (7-Z.Jones).
7.6pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Bengals won this one — no giveaways, against Raiders at 2 giveaways.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Raiders owned this one and still lost it — +0.05 expected points per carry, against Bengals at -0.13 expected points per carry.
Raidersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Bengals won this one — +0.28 expected points per dropback, against Raiders at +0.05 expected points per dropback.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Bengals won this one — 2 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Raiders at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Raiders173 of 183 plays carry both curves
(1:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 83-D.Waller to CIN 19 for 23 yards (33-T.Flowers).
Swing −10.6 for BengalsExpected points −2.70 for BengalsThe model had Raiders 2 points higher than the market did.play 174
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:16CIN +11% win prob(1:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 83-D.Waller to CIN 19 for 23 yards (33-T.Flowers).
1st · 3:09LV +8% win prob(3:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LV 31 for -9 yards (91-T.Hendrickson). FUMBLES (91-T.Hendrickson) [91-T.Hendrickson], RECOVERED by CIN-65-L.Ogunjobi at LV 26. 65-L.Ogunjobi to LV 15 for 11 yards (74-K.Miller).
4th · 0:17LV +8% win prob(:17) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle intended for 7-Z.Jones INTERCEPTED by 57-G.Pratt at CIN 2. 57-G.Pratt to CIN 4 for 2 yards (7-Z.Jones).
2nd · 0:19CIN +8% win prob(:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 7-Z.Jones for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:45CIN +7% win prob(:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 7-Z.Jones to CIN 9 for 10 yards (24-V.Bell).
4th · 1:51CIN +6% win prob(1:51) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 28-J.Jacobs pushed ob at 50 for 15 yards (33-T.Flowers). PENALTY on CIN-90-K.Kareem, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at 50.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
C.J. Uzomah's 7-yard touchdown catch with 4:35 left in the 1st put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:28Daniel Carlson·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap T.Sieg+33–0
1st4:35C.J. Uzomah·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe BurrowLead never changed again+73–7
1st1:18Evan McPherson·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+33–10
2nd10:23Evan McPherson·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+33–13
2nd7:58Daniel Carlson·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap T.Sieg+36–13
2nd2:00Tyler Boyd·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+76–20
3rd11:00Evan McPherson·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+313–23
4th14:20Daniel Carlson·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap T.Sieg+316–23
4th6:49Evan McPherson·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+316–26
4th3:37Daniel Carlson·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap T.Sieg+319–26
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Raiderscategory by categoryBengals
Raiders5–3Bengals
385Total yards310
5.5Yards per play5.3
41%Success rate41%
44%Third-down rate42%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
5Explosive plays5
19First downs18
3Sacks taken2
2Turnovers0
The read
Raiders ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bengals, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.05Raiders: +0.05 expected points added per play
+0.12Bengals: +0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.05Raiders: +0.05 expected points added per play
+0.28Bengals: +0.28 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.05Raiders: +0.05 expected points added per play
−0.13Bengals: −0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 70 snaps at a 81% dropback rate against Bengals’s 59 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 5, Bengals 5.
NoteRaiders outgained Bengals 385-310 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2021 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 21 pts
right on their number · −2.9 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Bengals5.3%
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.6 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−1.79× that swing) · 57 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCIN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 5.3%, 8.6 points below their season mean of 13.8% and 1.8 times their own 4.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
75Brandon ParkerT · Every snap100%77 snaps
70Alex LeatherwoodT · Every snap100%77 snaps
76John SimpsonG · Every snap100%77 snaps
74Kolton MillerT · Every snap100%77 snaps
68Andre JamesC · Every snap100%77 snaps
4Derek CarrQB · Every snap100%77 snaps
83Darren WallerTE · Full-time92%71 snaps
7Zay JonesWR · Full-time91%70 snaps
13Hunter RenfrowWR · Heavy rotation77%59 snaps
89Bryan EdwardsWR · Heavy rotation69%53 snaps
28Josh JacobsRB · Heavy rotation68%52 snaps
87Foster MoreauTE · Rotational35%27 snaps
30Jalen RichardRB · Rotational32%25 snaps
1DeSean JacksonWR · Rotational27%21 snaps
85Derek CarrierTE · Situational9%7 snaps
Inactive · 7
Amik RobertsonCBMalcolm KoonceDEKendal VickersDTJordan SimmonsGPatrick OnwuasorMLBJackson BartonTNick BowersTE
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Carr pass+11% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(1:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep right to 87-F.Moreau. PENALTY on CIN-29-V.Hargreaves, Defensive Pass Interference, 11 yards, enforced at CIN 36 - No Play.
Q3 1:21 · Raiders · 4th & 3 at CIN 36 · gained nothing · +3.23 EP · +11.2% win probability
171 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 183 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 183 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 82 yards from the CIN 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
183 of 183 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
183
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
40%
Yards
693
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51+0.1855%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50+0.1786%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.4463%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.25100%
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
snapsepapass rate
183 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
183 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Raiders3Bengals0
Field goal12 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Bengals 26
Raiders3Bengals6
Raiders3Bengals7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Raiders 7
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 40
Raiders3Bengals10
Field goal5 plays, from the Raiders 15 to the Raiders 8
The period ended5 plays, from the Raiders 2 to the Raiders 4
2nd quarter49 plays
Punt2 plays
Raiders3Bengals13
Field goal8 plays, from the Raiders 45 to the Raiders 4
Raiders6Bengals13
Field goal7 plays, from the Raiders 39 to the Bengals 10
Raiders6Bengals19
Raiders6Bengals20
Touchdown14 plays, from the Bengals 18 to the Raiders 10
Raiders12Bengals20
Raiders13Bengals20
Touchdown15 plays, from the Raiders 20 to the Bengals 14
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Raiders13Bengals23
Field goal12 plays, from the Bengals 35 to the Raiders 25
Punt7 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 42
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 29 to the Bengals 34
The period ended16 plays, from the Raiders 27 to the Bengals 9
4th quarter53 plays
Raiders16Bengals23
Field goal2 plays, from the Bengals 19 to the Bengals 16
Raiders16Bengals26
Field goal15 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Raiders 10
Raiders19Bengals26
Field goal16 plays, from the Raiders 23 to the Bengals 10
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 26 to the Bengals 32
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted11 plays, from the Raiders 35 to the Bengals 9
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Raiderscategory by categoryBengals
Raiders3
Bengals0
