2021 Wild Card · Sat, Jan 15, 2022 · Paul Brown Stadium

Las Vegas Raiders

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

CIN -6 ✓U 48.5 ✓31°FBengals closed -6 and covered, winning by 7.

Cincinnati Bengals 26–19. Biggest swing: Q4 1:16, CIN +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:16LV — CIN LV ball · 3rd & 17CIN 93%

(1:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 83-D.Waller to CIN 19 for 23 yards (33-T.Flowers).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:16CIN +11% win prob(1:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 83-D.Waller to CIN 19 for 23 yards (33-T.Flowers).
Q1 · 3:09LV +8% win prob(3:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LV 31 for -9 yards (91-T.Hendrickson). FUMBLES (91-T.Hendrickson) [91-T.Hendrickson], RECOVERED by CIN-65-L.Ogunjobi at LV 26. 65-L.Ogunjobi to LV 15 for 11 yards (74-K.Miller).
Q4 · 0:17LV +8% win prob(:17) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle intended for 7-Z.Jones INTERCEPTED by 57-G.Pratt at CIN 2. 57-G.Pratt to CIN 4 for 2 yards (7-Z.Jones).
Q2 · 0:19CIN +8% win prob(:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 7-Z.Jones for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Raiders	Bengals
Offensive plays	70	59
Total yards	385 (edge)	310
Yards per play	5.5 (edge)	5.3
Expected points added / play	0.05	0.12 (edge)
Success rate	41% (edge)	41%
Dropback rate	81%	61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.05	0.28 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.05 (edge)	-0.13
Third downs	8/18 (edge)	5/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	5
First downs gained on snaps	19 (edge)	18
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Raiders outgained Bengals 385–310 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LV

Derek CarrQB

29/54, 310 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-0.0 expected points added · -6.1% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

24/34, 244 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

10.0 expected points added · +11.2% completion over expected

Rushing · LV

Josh JacobsRB

13 att, 83 yds, 0 TD

0.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

17 att, 48 yds, 0 TD

-5.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Ja'Marr ChaseWR

9/12 for 116 yds, 0 TD

38% of team targets · 8.3 expected points added

Receiving · LV

Darren WallerTE

7/12 for 76 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 5.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LV	LV 25	11	51	5:37	Turnover on downs
2	CIN	CIN 25	12	75	4:52	Touchdown
3	LV	LV 25	5	6	1:30	Fumble
4	CIN	LV 15	4	7	1:46	Turnover on downs
5	LV	LV 2	5	1	2:03	Punt
6	CIN	LV 45	8	33	3:52	Turnover on downs
7	LV	LV 39	7	51	2:25	Turnover on downs
8	CIN	CIN 18	14	82	6:04	Touchdown
9	LV	LV 20	13	75	1:38	Touchdown
10	CIN	CIN 25	2	0	0:13	End of half
11	CIN	CIN 35	10	45	4:04	Turnover on downs
12	LV	LV 25	7	17	2:35	Punt
13	CIN	CIN 29	5	-3	1:34	Punt
14	LV	LV 27	13	76	7:30	Turnover on downs
15	CIN	CIN 25	14	65	7:31	Turnover on downs
16	LV	LV 23	13	67	3:12	Turnover on downs
17	CIN	CIN 26	5	6	1:43	Punt
18	LV	LV 35	11	41	1:39	Interception
19	CIN	CIN 4	1	0	0:12	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bengals gained 82 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	29/54	310	1	1	3	-0.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Josh Jacobs	13	83	6.4	0	0.7
Derek Carr	1	20	20.0	0	2.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Darren Waller	7	12	76	0	24%	5.3
Zay Jones	5	8	61	1	16%	4.4
Hunter Renfrow	8	11	58	0	22%	-1.8
Josh Jacobs	4	5	44	0	10%	2.8
Bryan Edwards	3	6	41	0	12%	0.4
DeSean Jackson	1	2	26	0	4%	2.8
Jalen Richard	1	2	4	0	4%	-0.6
Foster Moreau	0	3	0	0	6%	-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Nate Hobbs	3	5	0.0	1
Denzel Perryman	4	3	0.0	0
Divine Deablo	1	5	0.0	0
Desmond Trufant	3	3	0.0	0
Cory Littleton	3	2	0.0	0
Maxx Crosby	2	3	1.0	0
Roderic Teamer	2	2	0.0	0
Quinton Jefferson	1	2	1.0	0
Johnathan Hankins	1	2	0.0	0
Damion Square	2	1	0.0	0

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	24/34	244	2	0	2	10.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Joe Mixon	17	48	2.8	-5.1
Ja'Marr Chase	3	23	7.7	3.0
Chris Evans	1	9	9.0	0.5
Tyler Boyd	1	3	3.0	-1.0
Samaje Perine	1	2	2.0	-0.3
Joe Burrow	2	-2	-1.0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Ja'Marr Chase	9	12	116	0	38%	8.3
C.J. Uzomah	6	6	64	1	19%	6.6
Joe Mixon	4	5	28	0	16%	-0.6
Tyler Boyd	4	5	26	1	16%	2.3
Tee Higgins	1	4	10	0	13%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Logan Wilson	7	3	0.0	0	1
Germaine Pratt	4	3	0.0	1	1
Chidobe Awuzie	3	3	0.0	0	0
Jessie Bates	2	4	0.0	0	3
Eli Apple	4	2	0.0	0	1
Tre Flowers	4	1	0.0	0	0
Mike Hilton	2	2	0.0	0	2
B.J. Hill	1	1	1.0	0	0
Sam Hubbard	1	1	1.0	0	1
Mike Thomas	1	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CIN -6
Closing total: 48.5
LV moneyline: +214
CIN moneyline: -248

Bengals closed -6 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 45 — under by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Paul Brown Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 31°F, wind 12 mph
Referee: Jerome Boger
Rest: LV 6 days · CIN 6 days
Coaches: Rich Bisaccia vs Zac Taylor