2021 Wild Card · Sat, Jan 15, 2022 · New Era Field

New England Patriots

Buffalo BillsWinner

BUF -4.5 ✓O 43 ✓7°FBills closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 30.

Buffalo Bills 47–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 5:48, NE +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 5:48NE — BUF NE ball · 1st & 10BUF 72%

(5:48) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left intended for 15-N.Agholor INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Hyde at BUF -2. Touchback.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 5:48NE +9% win prob(5:48) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left intended for 15-N.Agholor INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Hyde at BUF -2. Touchback.
Q1 · 6:28BUF +7% win prob(6:28) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones scrambles right tackle ran ob at BUF 34 for 16 yards (91-E.Oliver).
Q1 · 12:52BUF +6% win prob(12:52) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles left end ran ob at NE 31 for 26 yards (32-D.McCourty).
Q1 · 7:24BUF +5% win prob(7:24) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right to 85-H.Henry pushed ob at 50 for 30 yards (30-D.Jackson).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Bills
Offensive plays	60	51
Total yards	305	484 (edge)
Yards per play	5.1	9.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.07	0.77 (edge)
Success rate	38%	69% (edge)
Dropback rate	70%	55%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.12	0.94 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.05	0.56 (edge)
Third downs	7/14	6/6 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	10 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	18	27 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	0 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.77 expected points added per play vs 0.07.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

21/25, 308 yds, 5 TD, 0 INT

23.0 expected points added · +18.0% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Mac JonesQB

24/38, 232 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

3.5 expected points added · +4.8% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

Devin SingletaryRB

16 att, 81 yds, 2 TD

7.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

6 att, 66 yds, 0 TD

6.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Dawson KnoxTE

5/5 for 89 yds, 2 TD

20% of team targets · 9.1 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Kendrick BourneWR

7/8 for 77 yds, 2 TD

23% of team targets · 11.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BUF	BUF 30	11	70	5:15	Touchdown
2	NE	NE 13	10	58	4:05	Interception
3	BUF	BUF 20	11	80	5:00	Touchdown
4	NE	NE 25	5	9	2:17	Punt
5	BUF	BUF 19	11	61	6:03	Touchdown
6	NE	NE 21	7	11	3:36	Punt
7	BUF	BUF 11	5	89	1:51	Touchdown
8	NE	NE 25	11	49	1:52	Turnover on downs
9	BUF	—	1	0	0:01	End of half
10	NE	NE 24	5	27	2:07	Interception
11	BUF	BUF 42	7	68	4:05	Touchdown
12	NE	NE 25	13	79	4:36	Touchdown
13	BUF	BUF 23	11	77	5:50	Touchdown
14	NE	NE 24	7	14	3:09	Punt
15	BUF	NE 39	4	39	1:36	Touchdown
16	NE	NE 27	17	58	6:53	Touchdown
17	BUF	BUF 23	4	0	1:44	End of game

0 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 89 scrimmage yards over 5 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mac Jones	24/38	232	2	2	3	3.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Damien Harris	9	30	3.3	-2.4
Rhamondre Stevenson	8	27	3.4	0.6
Mac Jones	2	18	9.0	1.9
Kendrick Bourne	1	14	14.0	0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Kendrick Bourne	7	8	77	2	23%	11.8
Jakobi Meyers	6	9	40	0	26%	1.7
Rhamondre Stevenson	4	4	33	0	11%	2.2
Hunter Henry	1	4	30	0	11%	-3.7
Brandon Bolden	4	6	27	0	17%	-0.5
Nelson Agholor	1	2	18	0	6%	-2.8
Damien Harris	1	1	7	0	3%	0.4
Jakob Johnson	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Devin McCourty	5	2	0
Adrian Phillips	3	3	0
J.C. Jackson	5	1	0
Lawrence Guy	0	3	1
Dont'a Hightower	2	1	0
Kyle Van Noy	1	2	0
Joejuan Williams	3	0	0
Christian Barmore	1	1	0
Matt Slater	2	0	0
Deatrich Wise	2	0	0

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	21/25	308	5	0	0	23.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Devin Singletary	16	81	5.1	2	7.8
Josh Allen	6	66	11.0	0	6.2
Isaiah McKenzie	3	29	9.7	0	2.4
Zack Moss	1	0	0.0	0	-0.3
Mitchell Trubisky	3	-2	-0.7	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Dawson Knox	5	5	89	2	20%	9.1
Stefon Diggs	3	4	60	0	16%	2.8
Isaiah McKenzie	3	3	45	0	12%	3.2
Gabe Davis	2	3	41	1	12%	3.3
Emmanuel Sanders	2	3	36	1	12%	2.7
Cole Beasley	1	1	19	0	4%	1.1
Devin Singletary	3	4	13	0	16%	0.2
Reggie Gilliam	1	1	4	0	4%	-0.2
Tommy Doyle	1	1	1	1	4%	0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Tremaine Edmunds	6	2	0.0	0	0
Matt Milano	4	1	0.0	0	1
Taron Johnson	3	1	0.0	0	0
A.J. Klein	1	3	0.0	0	0
Carlos Basham	2	1	1.0	0	0
Siran Neal	2	1	0.0	0	0
Levi Wallace	2	1	0.0	1	1
Gregory Rousseau	1	1	0.0	0	0
Dane Jackson	2	0	0.0	0	0
Ed Oliver	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -4.5
Closing total: 43
NE moneyline: +181
BUF moneyline: -207

Bills closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 30.

Total closed 43; the game landed 64 — over by 21.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather: 7°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: NE 6 days · BUF 6 days
Coaches: Bill Belichick vs Sean McDermott

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.