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polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:30 AM ET · 14 to play · 2 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Wild Card · Sat, Jan 15, 2022 · New Era Field
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Wild Card
It turned at Q1 5:48, 1st and 10, on Micah Hyde — 9.2 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Buffalo Bills 47–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 5:48, Bills +9.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:48 · 1st and 10
Micah Hyde
Bills
(5:48) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left intended for 15-N.Agholor INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Hyde at BUF -2. Touchback.
9.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Bills won this one — 69% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Patriots at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bills won this one — 6 of 6 on third down, against Patriots at 7 of 14 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.77 expected points per snap, against Patriots at +0.07 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Bills won this one — +0.56 expected points per carry, against Patriots at -0.05 expected points per carry.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
(5:48) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left intended for 15-N.Agholor INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Hyde at BUF -2. Touchback.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Dawson Knox's 8-yard touchdown catch with 9:58 left in the 1st put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Emmanuel Sanders34-yd TD catch34-yard touchdown catchfrom Josh Allen · kick blocked by L.Guy+63–3310 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Patriotscategory by categoryBills
Bills ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.94 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 60 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Bills’s 51 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 2, Bills 7.
Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.77 expected points added per play vs 0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2021 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -49 pts to 37 pts
Over Expected room →Patriots-4.9 ptsright on their number · +1.3 vs their -6.2 pts, and they swing ±16.8 week to week (+0.08× that swing) · 60 snaps
Bills8.0 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.6 vs their 4.4 pts, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.50× that swing) · 51 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 5% to 96%
Tendencies room →Patriots64.3%inside their normal wobble · +14.1 vs their 50.2%, and they swing ±17.8 week to week (+0.79× that swing) · 42 early downs
Bills60.0%right on their number · −0.2 vs their 60.2%, and they swing ±11.9 week to week (−0.01× that swing) · 45 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -49% to 109%
Fourth Down room →Patriots80.0%leaned — went for it · +50.0 vs their 30.0%, and they swing ±31.1 week to week (+1.61× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Bills—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 37.5%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 34%
Tendencies room →Patriots3.6%leaned — stayed blocked · −10.3 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−1.40× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Bills11.9%inside their normal wobble · −3.6 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.50× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NE's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 80.0%, 50.0 points above their season mean of 30.0% and 1.6 times their own 31.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · BUF
21/25, 308 yds, 5 TD, 0 INT
23.0 expected points added · +18.0% completion over expected
Passing · NE
24/38, 232 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
3.5 expected points added · +4.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Josh Allen banked 17.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenQB · Starter QB | 38.9 | +17.3 | 95% | — | 0% | — | 21/25, 308 yd, 5 TD · 6 car, 66 yd |
| Kendrick BourneWR · Featured Receiver | 28.1 | +13.6 | 63% | 74% | 23% | 26% | 1 car, 14 yd · 7/8, 77 yd, 2 TD |
| Dawson KnoxTE · Featured Receiver | 25.9 | +13.1 | 88% | 89% | 20% | 32% | 5/5, 89 yd, 2 TD |
| Devin SingletaryRB · Committee Back | 24.4 | +6.1 | 86% | 82% | 16% | 0% | 16 car, 81 yd, 2 TD · 3/4, 13 yd |
| Mac JonesQB · Starter QB | 15.1 | −6.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 24/38, 232 yd, 2 TD, 2 INT · 2 car, 18 yd |
| Gabe DavisWR | 12.1 | +4.6 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Emmanuel SandersWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.6 | +5.8 | 46% | 57% | 12% | 20% | 2/3, 36 yd, 1 TD |
| Isaiah McKenzieWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.4 | +3.4 | 34% | 36% | 12% | 7% | 3 car, 29 yd · 3/3, 45 yd |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB · Committee Back | 10.0 | −0.7 | 37% | 35% | 11% | 0% | 8 car, 27 yd · 4/4, 33 yd |
| Jakobi MeyersWR · Alpha Receiver | 10.0 | −6.4 | 89% | 91% | 26% | 19% | 6/9, 40 yd |
| Stefon DiggsWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.0 | +2.1 | 63% | 71% | 16% | 21% | 3/4, 60 yd |
| Brandon BoldenRB · Receiving Back | 6.7 | −2.0 | 38% | 44% | 17% | 14% | 4/6, 27 yd |
| Damien HarrisRB | 4.7 | −3.8 | 27% | 19% | 3% | 2% | 9 car, 30 yd · 1/1, 7 yd |
| Hunter HenryTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | −3.9 | 81% | 88% | 11% | 23% | 1/4, 30 yd |
| Cole BeasleyWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | +1.0 | 30% | 21% | 4% | 5% | 1/1, 19 yd |
| Nelson AgholorWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | −0.8 | 83% | 84% | 6% | 14% | 1/2, 18 yd |
| Reggie GilliamRB | 1.4 | 0.0 | 34% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Zack MossRB | 0.0 | −3.2 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Taiwan JonesRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Jake KumerowWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jakob JohnsonRB | 0.0 | −1.3 | 24% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Matt SlaterWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Gunner OlszewskiWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Mitchell TrubiskyQB | -0.2 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
7 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(5:48) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left intended for 15-N.Agholor INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Hyde at BUF -2. Touchback.
Q1 5:48 · Patriots · 1st & 10 at BUF 34 · gained nothing · -4.46 EP · −10.0% win probability
146 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 157 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 89 yards from the BUF 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
157 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
157 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Patriots0
Bills6Patriots0Bills7Patriots0Bills13Patriots0Bills14Patriots0Bills20Patriots0Bills26Patriots0Bills27Patriots3Bills27Patriots3Bills33Patriots9Bills33Patriots10Bills33Patriots10Bills39Patriots10Bills40Patriots10Bills46Patriots10Bills47Patriots16Bills47Patriots17Bills47Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Patriots at Bills, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 24/38 | 232 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +3.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Harris | 9 | 30 | 3.3 | 0 | −2.4 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Mac Jones | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 | +1.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick Bourne | 7 | 8 | 77 | 2 | 23% | +11.8 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 6 | 9 | 40 | 0 | 26% | +1.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin McCourty | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| J.C. Jackson | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Phillips | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joejuan Williams |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 21/25 | 308 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +23.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_19_NE_BUF
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 30.
Total closed 43; the game landed 64 — over by 21.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 11% | +2.2 |
| Hunter Henry | 1 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 11% | −3.7 |
| Brandon Bolden | 4 | 6 | 27 | 0 | 17% | −0.5 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 6% | −2.8 |
| Damien Harris | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | +0.4 |
| Jakob Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Lawrence Guy | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dont'a Hightower | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Van Noy | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deatrich Wise | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Whaun Bentley | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Bryant | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 |
| 81 |
| 5.1 |
| 2 |
| +7.8 |
| Josh Allen | 6 | 66 | 11.0 | 0 | +6.2 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 | +2.4 |
| Zack Moss | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dawson Knox | 5 | 5 | 89 | 2 | 20% | +9.1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 3 | 4 | 60 | 0 | 16% | +2.8 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 3 | 3 | 45 | 0 | 12% | +3.2 |
| Gabe Davis | 2 | 3 | 41 | 1 | 12% | +3.3 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 2 | 3 | 36 | 1 | 12% | +2.7 |
| Cole Beasley | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 4% | +1.1 |
| Devin Singletary | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 16% | +0.2 |
| Reggie Gilliam | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4% | −0.2 |
| Tommy Doyle | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4% | +0.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tremaine Edmunds | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Milano | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Taron Johnson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Klein | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Siran Neal | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Levi Wallace | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Carlos Basham | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ed Oliver | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dane Jackson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gregory Rousseau | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
