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Game Center
polling · 300s tick · as of 12:20 PM ET · 12 to play · 2 final
2021 Wild Card · Sun, Jan 16, 2022 · Raymond James Stadium
Final
EaglesPhiladelphia15
BY 16final margin
BuccaneersTampa Bay31
Philadelphia Eagles 15 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31. Final.
Buccaneers -7.5 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Wild Card
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31, Eagles 15 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 14:28, 2nd and 10, on Tom Brady — 3.9 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
O 45.5 ✓
20 mph wind
Buccaneers closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 16.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31–15. Biggest swing: Q1 14:28, Buccaneers +3.9% win probability on one snap. Played in 20 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 14:28 · 2nd and 10
Tom Brady
Buccaneers
(14:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short right to 16-B.Perriman. PENALTY on PHI-96-D.Barnett, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at TB 42 - No Play.
3.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Ke'Shawn VaughnBuccaneersQ1 10:49(10:49) 21-K.Vaughn right guard to PHI 2 for 2 yards (93-M.Williams; 58-G.Avery).
3.0pts
Mike EdwardsBuccaneersQ2 0:50(:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left intended for 6-D.Smith INTERCEPTED by 32-M.Edwards [45-D.White] at TB 0. Touchback.
3.5pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Buccaneers won this one — no giveaways, against Eagles at 2 giveaways.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Buccaneers at 3 chunk plays.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Buccaneers won this one — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Eagles at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Buccaneers won this one — +0.20 expected points per dropback, against Eagles at -0.11 expected points per dropback.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the officially scored play-by-play, which lands usually within two hours of the final, or the next morning when its release runs late.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Eagles.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Eagles170 of 182 plays carry both curves
(14:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short right to 16-B.Perriman. PENALTY on PHI-96-D.Barnett, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at TB 42 - No Play.
Swing +3.9 for BuccaneersExpected points +1.28 for BuccaneersThe model had Eagles 20 points higher than the market did.play 5
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 14:28TB +4% win prob(14:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short right to 16-B.Perriman. PENALTY on PHI-96-D.Barnett, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at TB 42 - No Play.
2nd · 0:50PHI +4% win prob(:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left intended for 6-D.Smith INTERCEPTED by 32-M.Edwards [45-D.White] at TB 0. Touchback.
1st · 10:49TB +3% win prob(10:49) 21-K.Vaughn right guard to PHI 2 for 2 yards (93-M.Williams; 58-G.Avery).
1st · 4:34PHI +3% win prob(4:34) 8-A.Siposs punts 36 yards to TB 30, Center-45-R.Lovato. 1-J.Darden to TB 30 for no gain (33-J.Scott).
1st · 15:00TB +3% win prob(15:00) 21-K.Vaughn up the middle to TB 42 for 17 yards (49-A.Singleton; 28-A.Harris).
1st · 8:07PHI +2% win prob(8:07) 8-A.Siposs punts 27 yards to TB 43, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Giovani Bernard's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 10:05 left in the 1st put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:05Giovani Bernard·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
Buccaneers ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.09Eagles: −0.09 expected points added per play
+0.06Buccaneers: +0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.11Eagles: −0.11 expected points added per play
+0.20Buccaneers: +0.20 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.04Eagles: −0.04 expected points added per play
−0.14Buccaneers: −0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 63 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 72 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 2, Buccaneers 6.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2021 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34 pts to 29 pts
right on their number · −2.8 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.37× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Buccaneers23.4%
leaned — got home · +7.3 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (+1.52× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTB's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 23.4%, 7.3 points above their season mean of 16.1% and 1.5 times their own 4.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
78Iosua OpetaG · Every snap100%66 snaps
68Jordan MailataT · Every snap100%66 snaps
69Landon DickersonG · Every snap100%66 snaps
62Jason KelceC · Every snap100%66 snaps
1Jalen HurtsQB · Every snap100%66 snaps
6DeVonta SmithWR · Every snap100%66 snaps
88Dallas GoedertTE · Full-time89%59 snaps
16Quez WatkinsWR · Full-time88%58 snaps
18Jalen ReagorWR · Full-time80%53 snaps
65Lane JohnsonT · Heavy rotation65%43 snaps
14Kenneth GainwellRB · Rotational38%25 snaps
74Le'Raven ClarkT · Rotational35%23 snaps
26Miles SandersRB · Rotational33%22 snaps
89Jack StollTE · Situational21%14 snaps
24Jordan HowardRB · Situational21%14 snaps
35Boston ScottRB · Situational9%6 snaps
84Greg WardWR · Situational9%6 snaps
81Richard RodgersTE · Situational8%5 snaps
17KeeSean JohnsonWR · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Andre ChachereCBKary VincentCBTay GowanCBJosh SweatDENate HerbigGReid SinnettQBJason HuntleyRB
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Jack AndersonGGardner MinshewQBKayode AwosikaT
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
65Alex CappaG · Every snap100%73 snaps
76Donovan SmithT · Every snap100%73 snaps
74Ali MarpetG · Every snap100%73 snaps
12Tom BradyQB · Every snap100%73 snaps
66Ryan JensenC · Every snap100%73 snaps
87Rob GronkowskiTE · Full-time92%67 snaps
72Josh WellsT · Full-time89%65 snaps
13Mike EvansWR · Full-time81%59 snaps
18Tyler JohnsonWR · Heavy rotation77%56 snaps
25Giovani BernardRB · Rotational49%36 snaps
21Ke'Shawn VaughnRB · Rotational49%36 snaps
16Breshad PerrimanWR · Rotational49%36 snaps
84Cameron BrateTE · Rotational36%26 snaps
80O.J. HowardTE · Rotational29%21 snaps
10Scott MillerWR · Rotational26%19 snaps
78Tristan WirfsT · Situational11%8 snaps
64Aaron StinnieG · Situational10%7 snaps
1Jaelon DardenWR · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Sean Murphy-BuntingCBNick LeverettGKyle TraskQBKenjon BarnerRBRonald JonesRBCodey McElroyTECyril GraysonWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Brady pass+6% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:56) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 13-M.Evans to PHI 32 for 8 yards (57-T.Edwards).
Q1 13:56 · Buccaneers · 3rd & 7 at PHI 40 · gained 8 · +1.90 EP · +6.5% win probability
168 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 182 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 93 yards from the PHI 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
43%
Yards
690
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51-0.0382%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.0774%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.0846%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.5530%
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR9-0.1911%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Buccaneers0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Eagles1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Eagles2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
Eagles0Buccaneers6
Eagles0Buccaneers7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Eagles 2
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 33
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 43 to midfield
Punt6 plays, from the Eagles 19 to the Eagles 34
Eagles0Buccaneers13
Eagles0Buccaneers14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Eagles 1
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter48 plays
Punt3 plays
Eagles0Buccaneers17
Field goal11 plays, from the Buccaneers 31 to the Eagles 5
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Eagles 17 to the Buccaneers 37
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 22 to the Buccaneers 25
The period ended1 play
Intercepted6 plays, from the Eagles 39 to the Buccaneers 21
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Buccaneers 28
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter45 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Buccaneers 45
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 9 to the Buccaneers 16
Eagles0Buccaneers23
Eagles0Buccaneers24
Touchdown7 plays, from the Eagles 48 to the Eagles 2
Intercepted6 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 46
Eagles0Buccaneers30
Eagles0Buccaneers31
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 28 to the Eagles 31
Punt7 plays, from the Buccaneers 19 to the Buccaneers 34
Punt4 plays
4th quarter44 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 38 to the Buccaneers 39
Eagles6Buccaneers31
Eagles7Buccaneers31
Touchdown3 plays, from the Eagles 35 to the Buccaneers 34
Punt7 plays, from the Buccaneers 10 to the Buccaneers 39
Eagles13Buccaneers31
Eagles15Buccaneers31
Touchdown11 plays, from the Eagles 7 to the Buccaneers 16
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Eagles 46 to the Eagles 14
The period ended5 plays, from the Eagles 16 to the Eagles 27
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Eaglescategory by categoryBuccaneers
Eagles0
Buccaneers6
