2021 Wild Card · Sun, Jan 16, 2022 · Raymond James Stadium

Philadelphia Eagles

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

TB -7.5 ✓O 45.5 ✓21 mph windBuccaneers closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 16.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31–15. Biggest swing: Q1 14:28, TB +4% win probability on one snap. Played in 21 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 14:28PHI — TB TB ball · 2nd & 10TB 76%

(14:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short right to 16-B.Perriman. PENALTY on PHI-96-D.Barnett, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at TB 42 - No Play.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 14:28TB +4% win prob(14:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short right to 16-B.Perriman. PENALTY on PHI-96-D.Barnett, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at TB 42 - No Play.
Q2 · 0:50PHI +4% win prob(:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left intended for 6-D.Smith INTERCEPTED by 32-M.Edwards [45-D.White] at TB 0. Touchback.
Q1 · 10:49TB +3% win prob(10:49) 21-K.Vaughn right guard to PHI 2 for 2 yards (93-M.Williams; 58-G.Avery).
Q1 · 4:34PHI +3% win prob(4:34) 8-A.Siposs punts 36 yards to TB 30, Center-45-R.Lovato. 1-J.Darden to TB 30 for no gain (33-J.Scott).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Eagles	Buccaneers
Offensive plays	63	72
Total yards	341	349 (edge)
Yards per play	5.4 (edge)	4.8
Expected points added / play	-0.09	0.06 (edge)
Success rate	40%	49% (edge)
Dropback rate	75%	57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.11	0.20 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.04 (edge)	-0.14
Third downs	5/14 (edge)	4/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	15	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	4
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.09.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

29/37, 271 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

8.2 expected points added · +8.2% completion over expected

Passing · PHI

Jalen HurtsQB

23/43, 258 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-5.5 expected points added · -7.5% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Ke'Shawn VaughnRB

17 att, 53 yds, 1 TD

-1.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Giovani BernardRB

13 att, 44 yds, 1 TD

-3.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

9/10 for 117 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · 10.2 expected points added

Receiving · PHI

Dallas GoedertTE

6/12 for 92 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 5.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 25	14	60	5:00	Touchdown
2	PHI	PHI 25	5	5	2:00	Punt
3	TB	TB 43	4	7	1:01	Punt
4	PHI	PHI 19	5	10	2:34	Punt
5	TB	TB 30	11	70	4:00	Touchdown
6	PHI	PHI 27	5	-3	1:17	Punt
7	TB	TB 31	11	53	4:52	Turnover on downs
8	PHI	PHI 17	13	46	5:27	Turnover on downs
9	TB	TB 22	4	-6	1:26	Punt
10	PHI	PHI 39	6	60	1:40	Interception
11	TB	TB 20	4	0	0:28	Punt
12	PHI	PHI 19	1	0	0:15	End of half
13	PHI	PHI 25	8	40	2:53	Punt
14	TB	TB 9	4	5	1:32	Punt
15	TB	PHI 48	6	48	2:57	Touchdown
16	PHI	PHI 25	6	21	2:13	Interception
17	TB	PHI 36	2	36	0:07	Touchdown
18	PHI	PHI 28	5	3	1:28	Punt
19	TB	TB 19	6	20	2:47	Punt
20	PHI	PHI 20	4	-3	1:03	Punt
21	TB	TB 38	4	-3	2:12	Punt
22	PHI	PHI 35	3	65	0:40	Touchdown
23	TB	TB 10	7	29	3:07	Punt
24	PHI	PHI 7	11	95	4:16	Touchdown
25	TB	PHI 46	10	30	3:34	Turnover on downs
26	PHI	PHI 16	4	2	1:11	End of game

0 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Eagles gained 95 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jalen Hurts	23/43	258	1	2	2	-5.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jalen Hurts	8	39	4.9	0	-0.8
Boston Scott	1	34	34.0	1	3.4
Miles Sanders	7	16	2.3	0	-3.2
Kenneth Gainwell	1	6	6.0	0	0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Dallas Goedert	6	12	92	0	28%	5.0
DeVonta Smith	4	11	60	0	26%	-7.6
Kenneth Gainwell	5	5	49	1	12%	5.4
Quez Watkins	2	7	35	0	16%	-1.2
Miles Sanders	3	3	12	0	7%	-1.1
Jordan Howard	1	1	7	0	2%	-0.3
Jalen Reagor	1	3	2	0	7%	-3.0
Boston Scott	1	1	1	0	2%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Alex Singleton	8	6	1.0	0
Anthony Harris	6	6	0.0	0
T.J. Edwards	4	2	0.0	0
Rodney McLeod	1	4	0.0	0
Darius Slay	4	1	0.0	1
Avonte Maddox	2	3	0.0	0
Steven Nelson	2	2	0.0	1
Javon Hargrave	0	4	1.0	0
Marcus Epps	2	2	0.0	0
Milton Williams	3	1	0.0	0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	29/37	271	2	0	4	8.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Ke'Shawn Vaughn	17	53	3.1	1	-1.9
Giovani Bernard	13	44	3.4	1	-3.4
Scott Miller	1	9	9.0	0	1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Evans	9	10	117	1	28%	10.2
Giovani Bernard	5	7	39	0	19%	0.4
Rob Gronkowski	5	6	31	1	17%	2.0
Tyler Johnson	2	3	30	0	8%	0.3
Cameron Brate	3	3	29	0	8%	2.4
Ke'Shawn Vaughn	2	2	9	0	6%	0.1
Scott Miller	1	1	8	0	3%	0.5
Breshad Perriman	1	3	5	0	8%	-2.2
O.J. Howard	1	1	3	0	3%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Mike Edwards	9	0	0.0	1	1
Jamel Dean	7	1	0.0	0	1
Devin White	3	2	0.0	0	1
Antoine Winfield	3	2	1.0	0	0
Jordan Whitehead	5	0	0.0	0	0
Carlton Davis	4	1	0.0	0	1
Ndamukong Suh	1	1	0.0	0	0
Kevin Minter	1	1	0.0	0	0
Grant Stuard	1	1	0.0	0	0
Lavonte David	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -7.5
Closing total: 45.5
PHI moneyline: +293
TB moneyline: -352

Buccaneers closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 16.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 46 — over by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 66°F, wind 21 mph
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: PHI 8 days · TB 7 days
Coaches: Nick Sirianni vs Bruce Arians

Wind at 21 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.