2021 Wild Card · Sun, Jan 16, 2022 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Pittsburgh Steelers

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

KC -13 ✓O 46 ✓30°FChiefs closed -13 and covered, winning by 21.

Kansas City Chiefs 42–21 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 10:51, PIT +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 10:51PIT — KC KC ball · 1st & 10KC 86%

(10:51) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 17-M.Hardman. 17-M.Hardman FUMBLES (Aborted) at KC 28, recovered by KC-31-Da.Williams at KC 29. 31-Da.Williams to KC 28 for -1 yards (97-C.Heyward; 93-J.Schobert). FUMBLES (97-C.Heyward),

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 10:51PIT +18% win prob(10:51) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 17-M.Hardman. 17-M.Hardman FUMBLES (Aborted) at KC 28, recovered by KC-31-Da.Williams at KC 29. 31-Da.Williams to KC 28 for -1 yards (97-C.Heyward; 93-J.Schobert). FUMBLES (97-C.Heyward), RECOVERED by PIT-90-T.Watt at KC 26. 90-T.Watt for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 6:30PIT +9% win prob(6:30) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 11-D.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 55-D.Bush (90-T.Watt) at PIT 20. 55-D.Bush to PIT 30 for 10 yards (65-T.Smith).
Q1 · 8:53PIT +7% win prob(8:53) 5-T.Townsend punts 33 yards to PIT 18, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 14-R.McCloud.
Q1 · 6:46PIT +6% win prob(6:46) 6-P.Harvin punts 55 yards to KC 30, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 17-M.Hardman pushed ob at PIT 22 for 48 yards (44-D.Watt).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Steelers	Chiefs
Offensive plays	65	65
Total yards	258	478 (edge)
Yards per play	4.0	7.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.11	0.21 (edge)
Success rate	40%	54% (edge)
Dropback rate	71%	71%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.18	0.46 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.05 (edge)	-0.38
Third downs	7/16	8/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	1	14 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	18	25 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.11.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

30/39, 404 yds, 5 TD, 1 INT

19.0 expected points added · +10.6% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Ben RoethlisbergerQB

29/44, 215 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-3.6 expected points added · -0.4% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Jerick McKinnonRB

12 att, 61 yds, 0 TD

-0.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PIT

Najee HarrisRB

12 att, 29 yds, 0 TD

-3.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

5/7 for 108 yds, 1 TD

18% of team targets · 7.5 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Jerick McKinnonRB

6/6 for 81 yds, 1 TD

16% of team targets · 8.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PIT	PIT 25	5	0	1:43	Punt
2	KC	KC 42	4	2	1:20	Punt
3	PIT	PIT 23	4	2	1:06	Punt
4	KC	KC 20	5	29	2:06	Punt
5	PIT	PIT 18	4	-3	2:15	Punt
6	KC	PIT 22	1	0	0:08	Interception
7	PIT	PIT 30	6	13	2:24	Punt
8	KC	KC 20	10	34	3:58	Punt
9	PIT	PIT 19	7	20	3:47	Punt
10	KC	KC 14	2	2	0:32	Defensive touchdown
11	KC	KC 24	10	81	4:56	Touchdown
12	PIT	PIT 25	5	8	1:07	Punt
13	KC	KC 26	8	74	2:43	Touchdown
14	PIT	PIT 14	5	5	1:03	Punt
15	KC	KC 20	7	80	0:39	Touchdown
16	PIT	PIT 25	2	0	0:13	End of half
17	KC	KC 32	11	68	4:47	Touchdown
18	PIT	PIT 30	2	-1	0:17	Fumble
19	KC	PIT 29	3	29	0:42	Touchdown
20	PIT	PIT 25	12	75	5:04	Touchdown
21	KC	KC 25	11	75	4:57	Touchdown
22	PIT	PIT 25	17	70	6:37	Touchdown
23	KC	50	7	4	3:12	Punt
24	PIT	PIT 19	13	69	4:24	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 81 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ben Roethlisberger	29/44	215	2	0	2	-3.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Najee Harris	12	29	2.4	-3.0
Benny Snell	2	15	7.5	2.7
Kalen Ballage	4	13	3.3	0.8
Ben Roethlisberger	2	-1	-0.5	0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
James Washington	2	3	37	1	7%	2.9
Diontae Johnson	5	10	34	1	23%	0.6
Zach Gentry	4	4	33	0	9%	-2.0
JuJu Smith-Schuster	5	8	26	0	18%	-0.3
Chase Claypool	3	7	25	0	16%	-1.5
Pat Freiermuth	4	5	25	0	11%	0.8
Ray-Ray McCloud	2	2	20	0	5%	0.8
Benny Snell	2	2	16	0	5%	0.4
Derek Watt	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.6
Najee Harris	2	2	-1	0	5%	-5.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Joe Haden	4	2	0.0	0
Minkah Fitzpatrick	5	1	0.0	0
Terrell Edmunds	6	0	0.0	0
Cameron Sutton	5	0	0.0	0
Robert Spillane	5	0	0.0	0
Cameron Heyward	2	2	0.0	0
Alex Highsmith	2	1	1.0	0
T.J. Watt	3	0	1.0	1
Isaiahh Loudermilk	1	2	0.0	0
Miles Killebrew	1	2	0.0	0

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	30/39	404	5	1	3	19.0
Travis Kelce	1/1	2	1	0	0	0.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jerick McKinnon	12	61	5.1	-0.1
Patrick Mahomes	3	29	9.7	1.4
Mecole Hardman	2	6	3.0	-8.3
Darrel Williams	1	4	4.0	0.4
Michael Burton	1	3	3.0	1.0
Derrick Gore	3	3	1.0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Travis Kelce	5	7	108	1	18%	7.5
Jerick McKinnon	6	6	81	1	16%	8.2
Demarcus Robinson	4	5	76	0	13%	0.9
Tyreek Hill	5	5	57	1	13%	4.5
Mecole Hardman	4	4	43	0	11%	1.8
Byron Pringle	5	7	37	2	18%	3.4
Blake Bell	1	1	3	0	3%	-0.4
Nick Allegretti	1	1	1	1	3%	1.1
Noah Gray	0	2	0	0	5%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Nick Bolton	6	2	0
L'Jarius Sneed	6	2	0
Charvarius Ward	5	1	1
Juan Thornhill	2	3	0
Anthony Hitchens	1	3	0
Frank Clark	2	2	0
Armani Watts	3	1	0
Ben Niemann	2	1	0
Derrick Nnadi	2	1	0
Mike Hughes	2	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -13
Closing total: 46
PIT moneyline: +522
KC moneyline: -697

Chiefs closed -13 and covered, winning by 21.

Total closed 46; the game landed 63 — over by 17.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 30°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: PIT 7 days · KC 8 days
Coaches: Mike Tomlin vs Andy Reid