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polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:30 AM ET · 14 to play · 2 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Wild Card · Sun, Jan 16, 2022 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Wild Card
It turned at Q2 10:51, 1st and 10 — 18.4 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Kansas City Chiefs 42–21 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 10:51, Steelers +18.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 10:51 · 1st and 10
Unnamed on the sheet
Steelers
(10:51) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 17-M.Hardman. 17-M.Hardman FUMBLES (Aborted) at KC 28, recovered by KC-31-Da.Williams at KC 29. 31-Da.Williams to KC 28 for -1 yards (97-C.Heyward; 93-J.Schobert). FUMBLES (97-C.Heyward), RECOVERED by PIT-90-T.Watt at KC 26. 90-T.Watt for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
18.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Chiefs won this one — 14 chunk plays, against Steelers at 1 chunk play.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.46 expected points per dropback, against Steelers at -0.18 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Steelers owned this one and still lost it — +0.05 expected points per carry, against Chiefs at -0.38 expected points per carry.
Steelersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Chiefs won this one — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Steelers at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 12.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
(10:51) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 17-M.Hardman. 17-M.Hardman FUMBLES (Aborted) at KC 28, recovered by KC-31-Da.Williams at KC 29. 31-Da.Williams to KC 28 for -1 yards (97-C.Heyward; 93-J.Schobert). FUMBLES (97-C.Heyward),
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Byron Pringle's 12-yard touchdown catch with 2:00 left in the 2nd put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Byron Pringle12-yd TD catch12-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick MahomesLead never changed again+77–149 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Steelerscategory by categoryChiefs
Chiefs ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.46 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 65 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 65 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 3, Chiefs 6.
Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2021 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 25 pts
Over Expected room →Steelers-0.9 ptsright on their number · +0.3 vs their -1.1 pts, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+0.04× that swing) · 65 snaps
Chiefs10.9 ptsright on their number · +1.6 vs their 9.2 pts, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+0.29× that swing) · 65 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 29% to 91%
Tendencies room →Steelers66.0%inside their normal wobble · +8.7 vs their 57.3%, and they swing ±10.7 week to week (+0.81× that swing) · 47 early downs
Chiefs66.0%right on their number · +3.2 vs their 62.8%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 53 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -49% to 103%
Fourth Down room →Steelers40.0%right on their number · +12.9 vs their 27.1%, and they swing ±29.6 week to week (+0.44× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Chiefs—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 41.3%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 31%
Tendencies room →Steelers15.2%right on their number · −0.2 vs their 15.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.03× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Chiefs8.7%inside their normal wobble · −4.0 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (−0.73× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Nothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was PIT's early-down pass rate, 66.0% against a season mean of 57.3% — and PIT swings 10.7 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · KC
30/39, 404 yds, 5 TD, 1 INT
19.0 expected points added · +10.6% completion over expected
Passing · PIT
29/44, 215 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
-3.6 expected points added · -0.4% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Patrick Mahomes banked 13.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick MahomesQB · Starter QB | 37.1 | +13.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 30/39, 404 yd, 5 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 29 yd |
| Jerick McKinnonRB · Committee Back | 26.2 | +5.3 | 78% | 78% | 16% | 0% | 12 car, 61 yd · 6/6, 81 yd, 1 TD |
| Travis KelceTE · Featured Receiver | 25.9 | +12.4 | 75% | 74% | 18% | 30% | 1/1, 2 yd, 1 TD · 5/7, 108 yd, 1 TD |
| Byron PringleWR · Featured Receiver | 20.7 | +6.6 | 57% | 59% | 18% | 24% | 5/7, 37 yd, 2 TD |
| Tyreek HillWR · Rotational Receiver | 16.7 | +6.5 | 77% | 70% | 13% | 23% | 5/5, 57 yd, 1 TD |
| Ben RoethlisbergerQB · Starter QB | 16.5 | +2.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 29/44, 215 yd, 2 TD · 2 car, -1 yd |
| Diontae JohnsonWR · Featured Receiver | 14.4 | −1.3 | 88% | 87% | 23% | 32% | 5/10, 34 yd, 1 TD |
| James WashingtonWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.7 | +5.8 | 34% | 43% | 7% | 19% | 2/3, 37 yd, 1 TD |
| Demarcus RobinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.6 | +4.0 | 51% | 59% | 13% | 26% | 4/5, 76 yd |
| Mecole HardmanWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.9 | +1.8 | 57% | 48% | 11% | 2% | 2 car, 6 yd · 4/4, 43 yd |
| JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Featured Receiver | 7.6 | −2.8 | 76% | 80% | 18% | 10% | 5/8, 26 yd |
| Zach GentryTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.3 | +1.8 | 59% | 59% | 9% | 4% | 4/4, 33 yd |
| Pat FreiermuthTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.5 | +0.1 | 46% | 41% | 11% | 4% | 4/5, 25 yd |
| Chase ClaypoolWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.5 | −5.2 | 65% | 59% | 16% | 28% | 3/7, 25 yd |
| Benny SnellRB | 5.1 | +1.3 | 26% | 28% | 5% | 1% | 2 car, 15 yd · 2/2, 16 yd |
| Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | +1.3 | 21% | 22% | 5% | 4% | 2/2, 20 yd |
| Najee HarrisRB · Bell Cow Back | 2.8 | −5.0 | 44% | 37% | 5% | 0% | 12 car, 29 yd · 2/2, -1 yd |
| Blake BellTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −0.3 | 31% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 3 yd |
| Kalen BallageRB | 1.3 | −0.5 | 29% | 35% | 0% | — | 4 car, 13 yd |
| Darrel WilliamsRB | 0.4 | −0.1 | 12% | 13% | 0% | — | 1 car, 4 yd |
| Michael BurtonRB | 0.3 | −1.1 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Derrick GoreRB | 0.3 | −1.6 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Noah GrayTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.2 | 26% | 24% | 5% | 7% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Marcus KempWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Derek WattRB | 0.0 | −0.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(10:51) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 17-M.Hardman. 17-M.Hardman FUMBLES (Aborted) at KC 28, recovered by KC-31-Da.Williams at KC 29. 31-Da.Williams to KC 28 for -1 yards (97-C.Heyward; 93-J.Schobert). FUMBLES (97-C.Heyward), RECOVERED by PIT-90-T.Watt at KC 26. 90-T.Watt for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 10:51 · Chiefs · 1st & 10 at KC 31 · gained nothing · -8.57 EP · −24.0% win probability
167 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 177 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 80 yards from the KC 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Steelers6
Chiefs0Steelers7Chiefs0Steelers7Chiefs6Steelers7Chiefs7Steelers7Chiefs13Steelers7Chiefs14Steelers7Chiefs20Steelers7Chiefs21Steelers7Chiefs27Steelers7Chiefs28Steelers7Chiefs34Steelers7Chiefs35Steelers13Chiefs35Steelers14Chiefs35Steelers14Chiefs41Steelers14Chiefs42Steelers20Chiefs42Steelers21Chiefs42Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Steelers at Chiefs, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 29/44 | 215 | 2 | 0 | 2 | −3.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 12 | 29 | 2.4 | 0 | −3.0 |
| Benny Snell | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 | +2.7 |
| Kalen Ballage | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Washington | 2 | 3 | 37 | 1 | 7% | +2.9 |
| Diontae Johnson | 5 | 10 | 34 | 1 | 23% | +0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrell Edmunds | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Haden | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Sutton |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 30/39 | 404 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +19.0 |
| Travis Kelce | 1/1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +0.7 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_19_PIT_KC
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chiefs closed -13 and covered, winning by 21.
Total closed 46; the game landed 63 — over by 17.0.
Conditions and crew
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Zach Gentry | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 9% | −2.0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 5 | 8 | 26 | 0 | 18% | −0.3 |
| Chase Claypool | 3 | 7 | 25 | 0 | 16% | −1.5 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 4 | 5 | 25 | 0 | 11% | +0.8 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 5% | +0.8 |
| Benny Snell | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 5% | +0.4 |
| Derek Watt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.6 |
| Najee Harris | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 5% | −5.9 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Robert Spillane | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Heyward | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Miles Killebrew | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Highsmith | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiahh Loudermilk | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Watt | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerick McKinnon | 12 | 61 | 5.1 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 | +1.4 |
| Mecole Hardman | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | −8.3 |
| Darrel Williams | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Michael Burton | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Derrick Gore | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 5 | 7 | 108 | 1 | 18% | +7.5 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 6 | 6 | 81 | 1 | 16% | +8.2 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 4 | 5 | 76 | 0 | 13% | +0.9 |
| Tyreek Hill | 5 | 5 | 57 | 1 | 13% | +4.5 |
| Mecole Hardman | 4 | 4 | 43 | 0 | 11% | +1.8 |
| Byron Pringle | 5 | 7 | 37 | 2 | 18% | +3.4 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| Nick Allegretti | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3% | +1.1 |
| Noah Gray | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L'Jarius Sneed | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Bolton | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Charvarius Ward | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Juan Thornhill | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Hitchens | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Frank Clark | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Armani Watts | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Nnadi | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Niemann | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Hughes | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
