2021 Wild Card · Sun, Jan 16, 2022 · AT&T Stadium

San Francisco 49ersWinner

Dallas Cowboys

DAL -3 upsetU 51 ✓DomeCowboys closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

San Francisco 49ers 23–17. Biggest swing: Q4 0:01, SF +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:01SF — DAL DAL ball · 1st & 10SF 81%

(:01) (No Huddle) 4-D.Prescott spiked the ball to stop the clock.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:01SF +19% win prob(:01) (No Huddle) 4-D.Prescott spiked the ball to stop the clock.
Q4 · 1:49SF +11% win prob(1:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to 1-C.Wilson [1-J.Ward].
Q4 · 0:18DAL +11% win prob(:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 86-D.Schultz pushed ob at SF 41 for 9 yards (51-A.Al-Shaair).
Q4 · 2:38DAL +9% win prob(2:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 86-D.Schultz pushed ob at SF 46 for 38 yards (1-J.Ward).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	49ers	Cowboys
Offensive plays	63	69
Total yards	341 (edge)	307
Yards per play	5.4 (edge)	4.4
Expected points added / play	-0.05 (edge)	-0.14
Success rate	43% (edge)	41%
Dropback rate	41%	74%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.01 (edge)	-0.14
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.08 (edge)	-0.12
Third downs	6/13 (edge)	5/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	5 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	17	19 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	5
Turnovers	1	1

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.14.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

23/43, 254 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-14.1 expected points added · -9.5% completion over expected

Passing · SF

Jimmy GaroppoloQB

16/25, 172 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

0.2 expected points added · -5.3% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Elijah MitchellRB

27 att, 96 yds, 1 TD

-3.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Deebo SamuelWR

10 att, 72 yds, 1 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DAL

Dalton SchultzTE

7/8 for 89 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 5.5 expected points added

Receiving · SF

Brandon AiyukWR

5/6 for 66 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 4.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SF	SF 25	9	70	4:06	Touchdown
2	DAL	DAL 25	5	-13	1:27	Punt
3	SF	SF 42	9	28	4:34	Turnover on downs
4	DAL	DAL 9	7	20	2:15	Punt
5	SF	SF 22	12	51	7:58	Turnover on downs
6	DAL	DAL 33	11	67	4:21	Touchdown
7	SF	SF 25	6	41	2:16	Turnover on downs
8	DAL	DAL 25	13	36	2:41	Punt
9	SF	SF 3	3	13	0:22	End of half
10	DAL	DAL 25	10	15	4:32	Punt
11	SF	SF 7	8	26	2:51	Punt
12	DAL	DAL 23	5	6	1:39	Interception
13	SF	DAL 26	2	26	0:08	Touchdown
14	DAL	DAL 25	5	8	1:18	Punt
15	SF	SF 9	6	15	2:58	Punt
16	DAL	DAL 30	11	47	4:41	Turnover on downs
17	SF	SF 26	5	28	2:16	Interception
18	DAL	SF 28	6	28	1:35	Touchdown
19	SF	SF 18	11	28	5:20	Punt
20	DAL	DAL 16	6	37	1:00	Turnover on downs
21	SF	SF 47	5	15	1:10	Punt
22	DAL	DAL 20	5	56	0:32	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 70 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jimmy Garoppolo	16/25	172	0	1	0	0.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Elijah Mitchell	27	96	3.6	1	-3.3
Deebo Samuel	10	72	7.2	1	0.5
Jimmy Garoppolo	1	1	1.0	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Brandon Aiyuk	5	6	66	24%	4.0
Deebo Samuel	3	3	38	12%	2.5
Jauan Jennings	3	5	29	20%	2.9
George Kittle	1	3	18	12%	-0.7
Travis Benjamin	1	1	17	4%	1.7
Kyle Juszczyk	2	3	15	12%	-0.5
Trent Sherfield	0	2	0	8%	-6.7
Elijah Mitchell	1	2	-11	8%	-3.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Emmanuel Moseley	10	2	0.0	0
Fred Warner	2	3	0.0	0
Dre Greenlaw	3	2	0.0	0
Azeez Al-Shaair	3	2	0.0	0
Arik Armstead	1	3	1.0	0
Kevin Givens	1	3	0.5	1
Jimmie Ward	3	0	0.0	0
Charles Omenihu	1	2	1.5	0
Nick Bosa	1	2	0.5	0
Ambry Thomas	3	0	0.0	1

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Dak Prescott	23/43	254	1	1	5	-14.1
Bryan Anger	1/1	16	0	0	0	3.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Ezekiel Elliott	12	31	2.6	0	-2.3
Dak Prescott	4	27	6.8	1	1.6
Tony Pollard	4	14	3.5	0	-0.5
CeeDee Lamb	1	5	5.0	0	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Dalton Schultz	7	8	89	0	19%	5.5
Amari Cooper	6	10	64	1	24%	3.1
Cedrick Wilson	5	10	62	0	24%	-5.3
CeeDee Lamb	1	5	21	0	12%	-3.1
C.J. Goodwin	1	1	16	0	2%	3.9
Tony Pollard	2	2	12	0	5%	-0.7
Malik Turner	1	1	6	0	2%	0.1
Ezekiel Elliott	1	4	0	0	10%	-3.5
Blake Jarwin	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Leighton Vander Esch	3	8	0	0
Micah Parsons	2	6	0	0
Damontae Kazee	2	5	0	0
Jayron Kearse	1	5	0	1
Donovan Wilson	2	4	0	0
Osa Odighizuwa	3	2	0	0
Randy Gregory	1	3	0	0
Anthony Brown	4	0	1	1
Demarcus Lawrence	2	2	0	0
Dorance Armstrong	3	1	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DAL -3
Closing total: 51
SF moneyline: +144
DAL moneyline: -162

Cowboys closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 51; the game landed 40 — under by 11.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: SF 7 days · DAL 8 days
Coaches: Kyle Shanahan vs Mike McCarthy