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3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about 49ers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on 49ers180 of 192 plays carry both curves
(:01) (No Huddle) 4-D.Prescott spiked the ball to stop the clock.
Swing −19.0 for CowboysExpected points −1.88 for CowboysThe model had Cowboys 5 points higher than the market did.play 192
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:01SF +19% win prob(:01) (No Huddle) 4-D.Prescott spiked the ball to stop the clock.
4th · 1:49SF +11% win prob(1:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to 1-C.Wilson [1-J.Ward].
4th · 0:18DAL +11% win prob(:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 86-D.Schultz pushed ob at SF 41 for 9 yards (51-A.Al-Shaair).
4th · 2:38DAL +9% win prob(2:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 86-D.Schultz pushed ob at SF 46 for 38 yards (1-J.Ward).
3rd · 12:34DAL +8% win prob(12:34) 5-B.Anger punts 56 yards to SF 29, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 17-T.Benjamin pushed ob at SF 33 for 4 yards (29-C.Goodwin). PENALTY on SF-53-M.Nzeocha, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards, enforced at DAL 15 - No Play.
2nd · 5:19DAL +8% win prob(5:19) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep right to 11-B.Aiyuk to DAL 38 for 37 yards (18-D.Kazee).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Elijah Mitchell's 4-yard rushing touchdown with 10:59 left in the 1st put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:59Elijah Mitchell·4-yd TD run4-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
1st4:58Robbie Gould·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.Pepper+310–0
2nd9:44Robbie Gould·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.Pepper+313–0
2nd5:24Amari Cooper·20-yd TD catch20-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+713–7
2nd3:08Robbie Gould·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.Pepper+316–7
49ers ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.0549ers: −0.05 expected points added per play
−0.14Cowboys: −0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.0149ers: −0.01 expected points added per play
−0.14Cowboys: −0.14 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.0849ers: −0.08 expected points added per play
−0.12Cowboys: −0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 63 snaps at a 41% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 69 at 74%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 2, Cowboys 2.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.14.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2021 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 22 pts
leaned — got home · +7.7 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+1.15× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Cowboys15.4%
right on their number · −0.9 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−0.15× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSF's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 32.0%, 17.4 points below their season mean of 49.4% and 1.2 times their own 14.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Prescott spiked−24% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:01) (No Huddle) 4-D.Prescott spiked the ball to stop the clock.
Q4 0:01 · Cowboys · 1st & 10 at SF 24 · gained nothing · -1.88 EP · −23.7% win probability
178 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 192 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 192 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 70 yards from the SF 30 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
192 of 192 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
192
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
40%
Yards
648
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54-0.1874%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31-0.0045%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR19-0.1237%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.0157%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.100%
Cowboys1 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR4——
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Cowboys0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
192 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
192 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
49ers6Cowboys0
49ers7Cowboys0
Touchdown10 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Cowboys 4
Punt5 plays
49ers10Cowboys0
Field goal10 plays, from the 49ers 42 to the Cowboys 29
Punt8 plays, from the Cowboys 9 to the Cowboys 23
The period ended7 plays, from the 49ers 22 to the 49ers 41
2nd quarter45 plays
49ers13Cowboys0
Field goal8 plays, from the 49ers 39 to the Cowboys 22
49ers13Cowboys6
49ers13Cowboys7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cowboys 33 to the 49ers 20
49ers16Cowboys7
Field goal6 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Cowboys 34
Punt14 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the 49ers 39
The period ended6 plays, from the 49ers 3 to the 49ers 11
3rd quarter45 plays
Punt13 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 45
Punt9 plays, from the 49ers 7 to the 49ers 34
Intercepted5 plays, from the Cowboys 23 to the Cowboys 37
49ers22Cowboys7
49ers23Cowboys7
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 33
Punt6 plays, from the 49ers 9 to the 49ers 25
The period ended5 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Cowboys 39
4th quarter61 plays
49ers23Cowboys10
Field goal9 plays, from the Cowboys 43 to the 49ers 33
Intercepted5 plays, from the 49ers 26 to the 49ers 44
49ers23Cowboys16
49ers23Cowboys17
Touchdown6 plays, from the 49ers 28 to the 49ers 5
Punt15 plays, from the 49ers 18 to the Cowboys 49
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.2 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.0 seconds
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Cowboys 16 to the 49ers 46
Punt13 plays, from the 49ers 47 to the Cowboys 38
The period ended7 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the 49ers 24
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
