2021 Divisional Round · Sun, Jan 23, 2022 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Buffalo Bills

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

KC -2.5 ✓O 54 ✓Chiefs closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 6.

Kansas City Chiefs 42–36. Biggest swing: Q4 1:13, KC +48% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:13BUF — KC KC ball · 2nd & 10BUF 66%

(1:13) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 10-T.Hill for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:13KC +48% win prob(1:13) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 10-T.Hill for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 0:17KC +46% win prob(:17) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 13-G.Davis for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 2:00KC +35% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 13-G.Davis for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
OT · 10:50KC +34% win prob(10:50) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Chiefs
Offensive plays	64	73
Total yards	424	552 (edge)
Yards per play	6.6	7.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.40 (edge)	0.38
Success rate	50%	53% (edge)
Dropback rate	64%	73%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.50	0.52 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.21 (edge)	-0.00
Third downs	6/14	8/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8	10 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	24	28 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	0	0

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

33/44, 378 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

21.3 expected points added · +7.5% completion over expected

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

27/37, 329 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

18.2 expected points added · +5.9% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

7 att, 69 yds, 1 TD

6.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

11 att, 68 yds, 0 TD

8.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Gabe DavisWR

8/10 for 201 yds, 4 TD

27% of team targets · 20.0 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Tyreek HillWR

11/13 for 150 yds, 1 TD

31% of team targets · 6.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BUF	BUF 29	15	71	6:57	Touchdown
2	KC	KC 26	13	74	5:37	Touchdown
3	BUF	BUF 25	11	24	5:27	Punt
4	KC	KC 1	4	6	1:28	Punt
5	BUF	BUF 43	4	6	1:48	Punt
6	KC	KC 14	13	81	6:51	Touchdown
7	BUF	BUF 25	9	75	1:15	Touchdown
8	KC	KC 25	7	38	0:37	Turnover on downs
9	KC	KC 25	14	64	7:59	Turnover on downs
10	BUF	BUF 25	5	9	2:12	Punt
11	KC	KC 39	6	61	2:43	Touchdown
12	BUF	BUF 25	3	75	0:10	Touchdown
13	KC	KC 25	9	29	3:30	Punt
14	BUF	BUF 8	5	12	1:58	Punt
15	KC	BUF 16	4	5	2:33	Turnover on downs
16	BUF	BUF 25	19	77	7:01	Touchdown
17	KC	KC 25	7	75	0:52	Touchdown
18	BUF	BUF 25	8	75	0:49	Touchdown
19	KC	KC 25	4	44	0:13	Turnover on downs
20	KC	KC 25	9	75	4:15	Touchdown

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 81 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	27/37	329	4	0	2	18.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Josh Allen	11	68	6.2	0	8.0
Devin Singletary	10	26	2.6	1	-0.7
Isaiah McKenzie	3	15	5.0	0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Gabe Davis	8	10	201	4	27%	20.0
Cole Beasley	6	8	60	0	22%	2.3
Devin Singletary	4	5	25	0	14%	-0.5
Emmanuel Sanders	1	1	16	0	3%	1.0
Dawson Knox	2	4	9	0	11%	-0.9
Reggie Gilliam	2	2	8	0	5%	-0.1
Stefon Diggs	3	6	7	0	16%	0.2
Isaiah McKenzie	1	1	3	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Matt Milano	6	5	0.0
Taron Johnson	5	2	1.0
Tremaine Edmunds	5	2	0.0
Dane Jackson	6	1	0.0
Jordan Poyer	2	5	0.0
Levi Wallace	4	2	0.0
Harrison Phillips	3	1	0.0
Micah Hyde	4	0	0.0
Ed Oliver	2	1	1.0
Carlos Basham	3	0	0.0

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	33/44	378	3	0	2	21.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	7	69	9.9	1	6.3
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	7	60	8.6	0	2.2
Mecole Hardman	2	31	15.5	1	2.7
Jerick McKinnon	10	24	2.4	0	-4.1
Tyreek Hill	1	-2	-2.0	0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyreek Hill	11	13	150	1	31%	6.9
Travis Kelce	8	9	96	1	21%	7.0
Jerick McKinnon	5	7	54	0	17%	7.0
Byron Pringle	5	7	29	1	17%	0.7
Mecole Hardman	1	1	26	0	2%	2.1
Noah Gray	2	2	14	0	5%	1.0
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	1	2	9	0	5%	-0.2
Demarcus Robinson	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Daniel Sorensen	6	3	0.0	0
L'Jarius Sneed	4	3	0.0	1
Nick Bolton	2	5	0.0	0
Anthony Hitchens	4	2	0.0	0
Jarran Reed	2	3	1.0	0
Charvarius Ward	3	2	0.0	1
Willie Gay	2	2	0.0	0
Melvin Ingram	2	1	1.0	0
Armani Watts	1	2	0.0	0
Juan Thornhill	2	1	0.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -2.5
Closing total: 54
BUF moneyline: +124
KC moneyline: -138

Chiefs closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 6.

Total closed 54; the game landed 78 — over by 24.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 35°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: BUF 8 days · KC 7 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Andy Reid