For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bills.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Bills176 of 189 plays carry both curves
(1:13) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 10-T.Hill for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +48.3 for ChiefsExpected points +6.01 for ChiefsModel and market agree here.play 160
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:13KC +48% win prob(1:13) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 10-T.Hill for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:17KC +46% win prob(:17) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 13-G.Davis for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:00KC +35% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 13-G.Davis for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Overtime · 10:50KC +34% win prob(10:50) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:08KC +26% win prob(:08) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce to BUF 31 for 25 yards (39-L.Wallace) [55-J.Hughes].
Overtime · 11:32KC +20% win prob(11:32) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 17-M.Hardman ran ob at BUF 8 for 26 yards (30-D.Jackson).
4th · 2:48
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
6 points with 10:45 left in overtime put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th0:03Harrison Butker·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+336–36
Overtime10:45Chiefs·6 pts6 pointsthe league feed did not file the play that scored themthe league feed did not file the play that scored themLead never changed again+636–42
13 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Billscategory by categoryChiefs
Bills0–6Chiefs
424Total yards552
6.6Yards per play7.6
50%Success rate53%
43%Third-down rate62%
3Red-zone touchdowns3
8Explosive plays10
24First downs28
2Sacks taken2
0Turnovers0
The read
Chiefs ahead 6–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.52 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.40Bills: +0.40 expected points added per play
+0.38Chiefs: +0.38 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.50Bills: +0.50 expected points added per play
+0.52Chiefs: +0.52 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.21Bills: +0.21 expected points added per play
−0.00Chiefs: −0.00 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 64 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 73 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Bills 5, Chiefs 7.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2021 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 24 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.0 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.85× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
Chiefs4.9%
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.8 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (−1.44× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBUF's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -6.3 pts, 10.7 points below their season mean of 4.4 pts and 1.5 times their own 7.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
75Daryl WilliamsT · Every snap100%64 snaps
71Ryan BatesC · Every snap100%64 snaps
73Dion DawkinsT · Every snap100%64 snaps
17Josh AllenQB · Every snap100%64 snaps
26Devin SingletaryRB · Every snap100%64 snaps
60Mitch MorseC · Every snap100%64 snaps
79Spencer BrownT · Every snap100%64 snaps
88Dawson KnoxTE · Full-time98%63 snaps
14Stefon DiggsWR · Full-time84%54 snaps
13Gabriel DavisWR · Full-time83%53 snaps
11Cole BeasleyWR · Rotational47%30 snaps
1Emmanuel SandersWR · Rotational27%17 snaps
41Reggie GilliamFB · Rotational25%16 snaps
19Isaiah McKenzieWR · Rotational25%16 snaps
72Tommy DoyleT · Situational6%4 snaps
15Jake KumerowWR · Situational5%3 snaps
Inactive · 7
Nick McCloudCBVernon ButlerDTMatt BreidaRBJosh ThomasSSBobby HartTTommy SweeneyTEMarquez StevensonWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Mitchell TrubiskyQBZack MossRB
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
77Andrew WylieG · Every snap100%76 snaps
62Joe ThuneyG · Every snap100%76 snaps
65Trey SmithG · Every snap100%76 snaps
57Orlando BrownT · Every snap100%76 snaps
52Creed HumphreyC · Every snap100%76 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Every snap100%76 snaps
87Travis KelceTE · Full-time86%65 snaps
10Tyreek HillWR · Full-time83%63 snaps
13Byron PringleWR · Heavy rotation76%58 snaps
1Jerick McKinnonRB · Heavy rotation70%53 snaps
11Demarcus RobinsonWR · Heavy rotation64%49 snaps
17Mecole HardmanWR · Rotational41%31 snaps
25Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB · Rotational30%23 snaps
81Blake BellTE · Situational21%16 snaps
83Noah GrayTE · Situational20%15 snaps
85Marcus KempWR · Situational5%4 snaps
45Michael BurtonFB · Situational3%2 snaps
73Nick AllegrettiG · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Rashad FentonCBJoshua KaindohDEShane BuecheleQBDarrel WilliamsRBPrince Tega WanoghoTJosh GordonWR
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
J.Allen pass+51% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:17) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 13-G.Davis for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:17 · Bills · 1st & 10 at KC 19 · gained 19 · +3.76 EP · +50.8% win probability
174 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 189 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 189 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
13 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 86 yards from the KC 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
189 of 189 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
189
EPA per play
+0.26
Success rate
46%
Yards
976
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR57+0.3267%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.4464%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR15+0.5067%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.4344%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.8460%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
189 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
189 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Bills6Chiefs0
Bills7Chiefs0
Touchdown15 plays, from the Bills 29 to the Chiefs 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Bills7Chiefs6
Bills7Chiefs7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Chiefs 26 to the Bills 8
The period ended6 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 36
2nd quarter50 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Bills 37 to the Chiefs 40
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 1 to the Chiefs 7
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 43 to the Chiefs 49
Bills7Chiefs13
Bills7Chiefs14
Touchdown14 plays, from the Chiefs 14 to the Bills 2
Bills13Chiefs14
Bills14Chiefs14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Chiefs 18
No good11 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Bills 32
3rd quarter34 plays
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Bills14Chiefs17
Field goal15 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Bills 18
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 34
Bills14Chiefs23
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chiefs 39 to the Bills 25
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Bills20Chiefs23
Bills21Chiefs23
Touchdown3 plays
The period ended5 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 37
4th quarter60 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 42 to the Bills 46
Punt7 plays, from the Bills 8 to the Bills 25
Bills21Chiefs26
Field goal4 plays, from the Bills 16 to the Bills 7
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
Bills27Chiefs26
Bills29Chiefs26
Touchdown19 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Chiefs 20
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Bills29Chiefs32
Bills29Chiefs33
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 36
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Bills35Chiefs33
Bills36Chiefs33
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Chiefs 19
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Bills36Chiefs36
Field goal8 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Bills 31
Overtime10 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Drive ended8 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Bills 34
Bills36Chiefs42
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Touchdown1 play
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
