2021 Divisional Round · Sun, Jan 23, 2022 · Raymond James Stadium

Los Angeles RamsWinner

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TB -2.5 upsetO 48 ✓Buccaneers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Los Angeles Rams 30–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:28, TB +27% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:28LA — TB LA ball · 1st & 10LA 63%

(:28) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 10-C.Kupp to TB 12 for 44 yards (31-A.Winfield) [93-N.Suh].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:28TB +27% win prob(:28) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 10-C.Kupp to TB 12 for 44 yards (31-A.Winfield) [93-N.Suh].
Q4 · 0:46TB +17% win prob(:46) 7-L.Fournette right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 0:42LA +14% win prob(:42) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at LA 24 for -1 yards (sack split by 93-N.Suh and 90-J.Pierre-Paul).
Q4 · 2:32LA +14% win prob(2:32) 23-C.Akers right tackle to LA 26 for 3 yards (93-N.Suh). FUMBLES (93-N.Suh), RECOVERED by TB-54-L.David at LA 30.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Rams	Buccaneers
Offensive plays	69	70
Total yards	428 (edge)	359
Yards per play	6.2 (edge)	5.1
Expected points added / play	-0.13 (edge)	-0.15
Success rate	46% (edge)	36%
Dropback rate	58%	81%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.28 (edge)	-0.24
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.69	0.26 (edge)
Third downs	4/11 (edge)	3/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	6
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	4	2 (edge)

Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.15.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

28/38, 366 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

17.4 expected points added · +13.2% completion over expected

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

30/54, 329 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-14.0 expected points added · -9.7% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Leonard FournetteRB

13 att, 51 yds, 2 TD

3.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LA

Cam AkersRB

24 att, 48 yds, 0 TD

-15.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Cooper KuppWR

9/11 for 183 yds, 1 TD

31% of team targets · 2.9 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

8/16 for 119 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · 2.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 20	7	23	2:15	Punt
2	LA	LA 20	9	82	4:44	Turnover on downs
3	TB	TB 25	5	1	0:46	Punt
4	LA	LA 29	8	40	3:47	Touchdown
5	TB	TB 25	7	48	2:56	Turnover on downs
6	LA	LA 40	5	60	1:15	Touchdown
7	TB	TB 14	5	3	0:59	Punt
8	LA	LA 49	4	-3	0:46	Punt
9	TB	TB 20	12	65	3:32	Turnover on downs
10	LA	LA 38	12	41	6:41	Turnover on downs
11	TB	TB 15	3	-7	0:26	Interception
12	LA	TB 31	5	30	1:34	Fumble
13	TB	TB 1	1	0	0:19	End of half
14	LA	LA 25	7	29	3:09	Punt
15	TB	TB 5	4	7	1:26	Punt
16	LA	TB 28	7	28	3:18	Touchdown
17	TB	TB 25	11	62	4:05	Turnover on downs
18	LA	LA 40	2	0	0:17	Fumble
19	TB	LA 30	8	30	2:33	Touchdown
20	LA	LA 25	5	0	0:31	Punt
21	TB	TB 30	1	-5	0:08	Fumble
22	LA	TB 25	1	0	0:08	Fumble
23	TB	LA 45	5	9	2:03	Turnover on downs
24	LA	LA 22	9	49	5:51	Turnover on downs
25	TB	TB 37	6	16	2:05	Turnover on downs
26	LA	LA 31	4	3	0:30	Punt
27	TB	TB 23	4	77	0:36	Touchdown
28	LA	LA 20	3	6	0:55	Fumble
29	TB	LA 30	8	30	1:43	Touchdown
30	LA	LA 25	6	63	0:42	Turnover on downs

0 of 30 drives ended in points. Longest march: Rams gained 82 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	28/38	366	2	0	2	17.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Cam Akers	24	48	2.0	0	-15.2
Van Jefferson	1	15	15.0	0	1.4
Matthew Stafford	4	6	1.5	1	-6.2
Sony Michel	1	4	4.0	0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cooper Kupp	9	11	183	1	31%	2.9
Odell Beckham	6	8	69	0	22%	6.4
Tyler Higbee	4	7	51	0	19%	1.3
Van Jefferson	2	3	29	0	8%	1.1
Cam Akers	3	3	20	0	8%	2.0
Kendall Blanton	2	2	18	1	6%	2.3
Sony Michel	2	2	-4	0	6%	-2.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Darious Williams	5	2	0.0	0	1
David Long	6	0	0.0	0	0
Travin Howard	1	4	0.0	0	0
Nick Scott	3	2	0.0	1	2
Aaron Donald	3	2	1.0	0	1
Von Miller	3	1	1.0	0	0
Leonard Floyd	2	2	1.0	0	0
Grant Haley	2	1	0.0	0	0
Troy Reeder	1	2	0.0	0	0
Eric Weddle	1	2	0.0	0	0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	30/54	329	1	1	3	-14.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Leonard Fournette	13	51	3.9	2	3.4
Tom Brady	1	0	0.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Evans	8	16	119	1	30%	2.7
Rob Gronkowski	4	11	85	0	21%	-3.0
Leonard Fournette	9	9	56	0	17%	1.1
Scott Miller	4	6	38	0	11%	2.1
Tyler Johnson	3	6	15	0	11%	-2.2
Cameron Brate	1	3	9	0	6%	-4.5
O.J. Howard	1	1	7	0	2%	0.8
Giovani Bernard	0	1	0	0	2%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Lavonte David	7	4	0.0	0
Jamel Dean	5	2	0.0	0
Devin White	3	4	0.0	1
Antoine Winfield	6	1	0.0	0
Jordan Whitehead	3	3	0.0	0
Ndamukong Suh	3	3	0.5	0
Rakeem Nunez-Roches	2	2	0.0	0
Sean Murphy-Bunting	2	2	0.0	0
Shaquil Barrett	2	1	0.0	0
Vita Vea	2	1	1.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -2.5
Closing total: 48
LA moneyline: +131
TB moneyline: -145

Buccaneers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 48; the game landed 57 — over by 9.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 50°F, wind 11 mph
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: LA 6 days · TB 7 days
Coaches: Sean McVay vs Bruce Arians