For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 12 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Rams180 of 192 plays carry both curves
(:28) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 10-C.Kupp to TB 12 for 44 yards (31-A.Winfield) [93-N.Suh].
Swing −26.5 for BuccaneersExpected points −1.64 for BuccaneersThe model had Buccaneers 5 points higher than the market did.play 189
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:28TB +27% win prob(:28) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 10-C.Kupp to TB 12 for 44 yards (31-A.Winfield) [93-N.Suh].
4th · 0:46TB +17% win prob(:46) 7-L.Fournette right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:42LA +14% win prob(:42) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at LA 24 for -1 yards (sack split by 93-N.Suh and 90-J.Pierre-Paul).
4th · 2:32LA +14% win prob(2:32) 23-C.Akers right tackle to LA 26 for 3 yards (93-N.Suh). FUMBLES (93-N.Suh), RECOVERED by TB-54-L.David at LA 30.
2nd · 14:28TB +13% win prob(14:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 10-C.Kupp for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN [50-V.Vea]. PENALTY on TB-54-L.David, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
4th · 0:04TB +11% win prob(:04) 8-M.Gay 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Matt Gay's 30-yard field goal with 0:04 left in the 4th put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st8:04Matt Gay·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap M.Orzech+33–0
1st3:34Kendall Blanton·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+710–0
1st0:37Ryan Succop·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap Z.Triner+310–3
2nd14:28Cooper Kupp·70-yd TD catch70-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+717–3
2nd2:23Matt Gay·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap M.Orzech+320–3
4th0:04Matt Gay·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap M.OrzechLead never changed again+330–27
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ramscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Rams6–1Buccaneers
428Total yards359
6.2Yards per play5.1
46%Success rate36%
36%Third-down rate21%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays6
22First downs19
2Sacks taken3
4Turnovers2
The read
Rams ahead 6–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Buccaneers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.69 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.13Rams: −0.13 expected points added per play
−0.15Buccaneers: −0.15 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.28Rams: +0.28 expected points added per play
−0.24Buccaneers: −0.24 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.69Rams: −0.69 expected points added per play
+0.26Buccaneers: +0.26 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 69 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 70 at 81%. Red-zone trips: Rams 6, Buccaneers 4.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.15.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2021 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -12 pts to 28 pts
right on their number · −2.2 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 57 dropbacks
Buccaneers17.5%
right on their number · +1.4 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTB's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 78.8%, 14.8 points above their season mean of 64.1% and 1.5 times their own 9.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
79Rob HavensteinT · Every snap100%72 snaps
73David EdwardsG · Every snap100%72 snaps
70Joseph NoteboomT · Every snap100%72 snaps
63Austin CorbettG · Every snap100%72 snaps
10Cooper KuppWR · Every snap100%72 snaps
55Brian AllenC · Every snap100%72 snaps
9Matthew StaffordQB · Every snap100%72 snaps
89Tyler HigbeeTE · Full-time97%70 snaps
3Odell BeckhamWR · Full-time92%66 snaps
12Van JeffersonWR · Full-time90%65 snaps
23Cam AkersRB · Full-time81%58 snaps
25Sony MichelRB · Situational19%14 snaps
86Kendall BlantonTE · Situational11%8 snaps
18Ben SkowronekWR · Situational8%6 snaps
88Brycen HopkinsTE · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Taylor RappFSChris GarrettLBTerrell LewisOLBBryce PerkinsQBBuddy HowellRBAndrew WhitworthTTremayne AnchrumT
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Donte DeayonCBJohn WolfordQBAlaric JacksonT
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
74Ali MarpetG · Every snap100%72 snaps
76Donovan SmithT · Every snap100%72 snaps
65Alex CappaG · Every snap100%72 snaps
66Ryan JensenC · Every snap100%72 snaps
12Tom BradyQB · Every snap100%72 snaps
87Rob GronkowskiTE · Full-time97%70 snaps
13Mike EvansWR · Full-time89%64 snaps
72Josh WellsT · Full-time88%63 snaps
7Leonard FournetteRB · Full-time86%62 snaps
10Scott MillerWR · Heavy rotation75%54 snaps
84Cameron BrateTE · Heavy rotation56%40 snaps
18Tyler JohnsonWR · Heavy rotation56%40 snaps
80O.J. HowardTE · Situational15%11 snaps
25Giovani BernardRB · Situational13%9 snaps
60Nick LeverettG · Situational13%9 snaps
89John BrownWR · Situational7%5 snaps
64Aaron StinnieG · Situational6%4 snaps
1Jaelon DardenWR · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Pierre DesirCBKyle TraskQBRyan GriffinQBRonald JonesRBTristan WirfsTBreshad PerrimanWRCyril GraysonWR
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
L.Fournette right+28% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:46) 7-L.Fournette right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:46 · Buccaneers · 4th & 1 at LA 9 · gained 9 · +3.88 EP · +28.2% win probability
178 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 192 plays across 31 drives, personnel groupings on 192 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 31 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 77 yards from the TB 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
192 of 192 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
192
EPA per play
-0.13
Success rate
40%
Yards
787
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR62-0.0656%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR29+0.2883%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29-0.4990%
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7-0.9057%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.7557%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Buccaneers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
192 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
192 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Buccaneers 43
Rams3Buccaneers0
Field goal10 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Buccaneers 8
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 26
Rams9Buccaneers0
Rams10Buccaneers0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Rams 29 to the Buccaneers 7
Rams10Buccaneers3
Field goal7 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Rams 27
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter49 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.7 seconds
Rams16Buccaneers3
Rams17Buccaneers3
Touchdown3 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 14 to the Buccaneers 17
Punt4 plays
No good12 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Rams 30
Rams20Buccaneers3
Field goal14 plays, from the Rams 38 to the Buccaneers 21
Intercepted3 plays
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Buccaneers 31 to the Buccaneers 6
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter43 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 49
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 5 to the Buccaneers 12
Rams26Buccaneers3
Rams27Buccaneers3
Touchdown7 plays, from the Buccaneers 28 to the Buccaneers 1
Rams27Buccaneers6
Field goal11 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Rams 12
Fumble lost2 plays
Rams27Buccaneers12
Rams27Buccaneers13
Touchdown8 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Rams 1
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter58 plays
Punt3 plays
Fumble lost1 play
Fumble lost1 play
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Rams 45 to the Rams 27
No good10 plays, from the Rams 22 to the Buccaneers 29
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Buccaneers 37 to the Rams 28
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 31 to the Rams 35
Rams27Buccaneers19
Rams27Buccaneers20
Touchdown4 plays, from the Buccaneers 23 to the Buccaneers 45
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Rams 23
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Rams27Buccaneers26
Rams27Buccaneers27
Touchdown9 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Rams 9
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Rams30Buccaneers27
Field goal7 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Buccaneers 12
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Buccaneers -2.5
Closing total
48
Rams moneyline
+131
Buccaneers moneyline
-145
Buccaneers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 48; the game landed 57 — over by 9.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 51°F at kickoff; breezy at 10 mph out of the north-west; partly cloudy.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Rams 6 days · Buccaneers 7 days
Coaches
Sean McVay vs Bruce Arians
4th · 0:35
TB +10% win prob
(:35) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 10-C.Kupp pushed ob at LA 44 for 20 yards (32-M.Edwards).
4th · 14:33LA +8% win prob(14:33) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford Aborted. 55-B.Allen FUMBLES at TB 25, RECOVERED by TB-90-J.Pierre-Paul at 50. 90-J.Pierre-Paul to LA 45 for 5 yards (79-R.Havenstein).
