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polling · 300s tick · as of 5:28 PM ET · 1 to play · 15 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Divisional Round · Sat, Jan 22, 2022 · Lambeau Field
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Divisional Round
It turned at Q4 4:50, 4th and 19 — 24.9 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
San Francisco 49ers 13–10 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 4:50, 49ers +24.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 4:50 · 4th and 19
Unnamed on the sheet
49ers
(4:50) 7-C.Bojorquez punt is BLOCKED by 94-J.Willis, Center-46-S.Wirtel, RECOVERED by SF-29-T.Hufanga at GB 6. 29-T.Hufanga for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
24.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Packers owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against 49ers at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Packers owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against 49ers at 2 giveaways.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Packers owned this one and still lost it — -0.01 expected points per carry, against 49ers at -0.20 expected points per carry.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Packers owned this one and still lost it — -0.12 expected points per snap, against 49ers at -0.26 expected points per snap.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 7.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about 49ers.
(4:50) 7-C.Bojorquez punt is BLOCKED by 94-J.Willis, Center-46-S.Wirtel, RECOVERED by SF-29-T.Hufanga at GB 6. 29-T.Hufanga for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Robbie Gould's 45-yard field goal with 0:04 left in the 4th put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Robbie Gould45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.PepperLead never changed again+313–105 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
49erscategory by categoryPackers
Packers ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 52 snaps at a 44% dropback rate against Packers’s 53 at 62%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 3, Packers 3.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
GB's sack or hit rate, 30.4%, sat 17.2 points above their season number of 13.3% — they got home by 3.7 times their own 4.6-point weekly swing.
23 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.6 points. · +3.7σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2021 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →49ers-20.3 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −13.7 vs their -6.6 pts, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−1.91× that swing) · 52 snaps
Packers1.9 ptsright on their number · −1.8 vs their 3.7 pts, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 53 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 13% to 86%
Tendencies room →49ers37.5%inside their normal wobble · −11.9 vs their 49.4%, and they swing ±14.2 week to week (−0.84× that swing) · 40 early downs
Packers56.1%right on their number · +0.5 vs their 55.6%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.07× that swing) · 41 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -46% to 125%
Fourth Down room →49ers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 23.3%.
Packers—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 51.2%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 33%
Tendencies room →49ers18.2%right on their number · +2.4 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.35× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Packers30.4%off script — got home · +17.2 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (+3.73× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
GB's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 30.4%, 17.2 points above their season mean of 13.3% and 3.7 times their own 4.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · GB
20/29, 225 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-1.1 expected points added · +3.4% completion over expected
Passing · SF
11/19, 131 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-7.5 expected points added · -9.3% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Aaron Jones banked 4.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron JonesRB · Bell Cow Back | 26.0 | +4.2 | 75% | 79% | 37% | 10% | 12 car, 41 yd · 9/10, 129 yd |
| Davante AdamsWR · Alpha Receiver | 18.0 | −0.2 | 95% | 97% | 41% | 59% | 9/11, 90 yd |
| Deebo SamuelWR · Featured Receiver | 11.3 | −0.3 | 69% | 83% | 22% | 5% | 10 car, 39 yd · 3/4, 44 yd |
| George KittleTE · Alpha Receiver | 10.3 | −0.4 | 98% | 100% | 33% | 69% | 4/6, 63 yd |
| Elijah MitchellRB · Committee Back | 10.1 | −3.3 | 72% | 57% | 22% | 6% | 17 car, 53 yd · 3/4, 18 yd |
| Aaron RodgersQB · Starter QB | 9.0 | −1.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/29, 225 yd |
| A.J. DillonRB | 8.5 | +3.8 | 27% | 24% | 0% | — | 7 car, 25 yd, 1 TD |
| Jimmy GaroppoloQB · Starter QB | 3.2 | −2.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 11/19, 131 yd, 1 INT |
| Allen LazardWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −0.3 | 91% | 91% | 4% | 3% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Jauan JenningsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −1.2 | 56% | 65% | 11% | 17% | 1/2, 6 yd |
| Kyle JuszczykRB | 1.4 | +0.6 | 56% | 61% | 0% | — | 2 car, 14 yd |
| Equanimeous St. BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.1 | −0.9 | 34% | 26% | 0% | — | 1 car, 1 yd |
| Dominique DafneyTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.3 | 14% | 9% | 7% | 15% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Josiah DeguaraTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.2 | 43% | 59% | 4% | 8% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Randall CobbWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 54% | 71% | 4% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Amari RodgersWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Jamycal HastyRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Charlie WoernerTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 39% | 26% | 6% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Brandon AiyukWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.7 | 96% | 91% | 6% | 9% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Trent SherfieldWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Travis BenjaminWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Marcedes LewisTE · Rotational Receiver | -1.0 | −2.6 | 46% | 24% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 0 yd |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:04) 9-R.Gould 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
Q4 0:04 · 49ers · 3rd & 8 at GB 27 · gained nothing · +0.71 EP · +26.0% win probability
138 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 154 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
4 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 75 yards from the GB 4 for a missed field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
154 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
154 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
49ers0
Packers649ers0Packers749ers3Packers749ers3Packers1049ers9Packers1049ers10Packers1049ers13Packers10Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: 49ers at Packers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 11/19 | 131 | 0 | 1 | 4 | −7.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Mitchell | 17 | 53 | 3.1 | 0 | −5.8 |
| Deebo Samuel | 10 | 39 | 3.9 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 | +1.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 4 | 6 | 63 | 0 | 33% | +1.0 |
| Deebo Samuel | 3 | 4 | 44 | 0 | 22% | +2.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Warner | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jimmie Ward | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaquiski Tartt | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arik Armstead |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 20/29 | 225 | 0 | 0 | 5 | −1.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_20_SF_GB
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Packers closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 47; the game landed 23 — under by 24.0.
Conditions and crew
| Elijah Mitchell | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 22% | −0.1 |
| Jauan Jennings | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 11% | −1.3 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −0.9 |
| Charlie Woerner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −0.6 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 2.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Dre Greenlaw | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Moseley | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dontae Johnson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Jones | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Azeez Al-Shaair | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Bosa | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 |
| 41 |
| 3.4 |
| 0 |
| −0.3 |
| A.J. Dillon | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 1 | +0.5 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 9 | 10 | 129 | 0 | 37% | +3.6 |
| Davante Adams | 9 | 11 | 90 | 0 | 41% | +5.4 |
| Allen Lazard | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | +1.3 |
| Josiah Deguara | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.8 |
| Dominique Dafney | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −2.2 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −5.3 |
| Randall Cobb | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Krys Barnes | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Preston Smith | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Amos | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| De'Vondre Campbell | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Rasul Douglas | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kenny Clark | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dean Lowry | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Chandon Sullivan | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashan Gary | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Stokes | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
