2021 Divisional Round · Sat, Jan 22, 2022 · Lambeau Field

San Francisco 49ersWinner

Green Bay Packers

GB -5.5 upsetU 47 ✓15°FPackers closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

San Francisco 49ers 13–10 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 4:50, SF +25% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 4:50SF — GB GB ball · 4th & 19GB 85%

(4:50) 7-C.Bojorquez punt is BLOCKED by 94-J.Willis, Center-46-S.Wirtel, RECOVERED by SF-29-T.Hufanga at GB 6. 29-T.Hufanga for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 4:50SF +25% win prob(4:50) 7-C.Bojorquez punt is BLOCKED by 94-J.Willis, Center-46-S.Wirtel, RECOVERED by SF-29-T.Hufanga at GB 6. 29-T.Hufanga for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 0:04GB +22% win prob(:04) 9-R.Gould 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
Q4 · 2:00GB +13% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 19-D.Samuel to GB 41 for 14 yards (41-H.Black).
Q4 · 6:14SF +12% win prob(6:14) 71-T.Williams reported in as eligible. 25-E.Mitchell up the middle to GB 20 for -1 yards (52-R.Gary, 59-D.Campbell).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	49ers	Packers
Offensive plays	52	53
Total yards	212	263 (edge)
Yards per play	4.1	5.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.26	-0.12 (edge)
Success rate	40% (edge)	36%
Dropback rate	44%	62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.33	-0.19 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.20	-0.01 (edge)
Third downs	4/11	5/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	3 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	13	13
Sacks taken	4 (edge)	5
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

20/29, 225 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-1.1 expected points added · +3.4% completion over expected

Passing · SF

Jimmy GaroppoloQB

11/19, 131 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-7.5 expected points added · -9.3% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Elijah MitchellRB

17 att, 53 yds, 0 TD

-5.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · GB

Aaron JonesRB

12 att, 41 yds, 0 TD

-0.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Aaron JonesRB

9/10 for 129 yds, 0 TD

37% of team targets · 3.6 expected points added

Receiving · GB

Davante AdamsWR

9/11 for 90 yds, 0 TD

41% of team targets · 5.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	GB	GB 31	12	69	5:35	Touchdown
2	SF	SF 40	5	-6	2:40	Punt
3	GB	GB 25	5	33	2:54	Fumble
4	SF	SF 42	4	0	1:31	Fumble
5	GB	GB 16	4	4	1:04	Punt
6	SF	SF 38	4	-1	1:01	Punt
7	GB	GB 17	4	1	2:08	Punt
8	SF	SF 34	4	-3	1:29	Punt
9	GB	GB 25	7	21	4:57	Punt
10	SF	SF 23	11	68	5:45	Interception
11	GB	GB 4	6	77	0:56	End of half
12	SF	50	11	59	6:47	Turnover on downs
13	GB	GB 32	5	6	1:11	Punt
14	SF	SF 28	4	-1	1:34	Punt
15	GB	GB 28	14	57	9:01	Turnover on downs
16	SF	SF 28	10	52	5:17	Turnover on downs
17	GB	GB 21	4	-9	1:29	Defensive touchdown
18	GB	GB 29	5	4	1:21	Punt
19	SF	SF 29	9	44	3:20	Turnover on downs

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 77 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a end of half.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jimmy Garoppolo	11/19	131	0	1	4	-7.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Elijah Mitchell	17	53	3.1	-5.8
Deebo Samuel	10	39	3.9	-1.1
Kyle Juszczyk	2	14	7.0	1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
George Kittle	4	6	63	33%	1.0
Deebo Samuel	3	4	44	22%	2.2
Elijah Mitchell	3	4	18	22%	-0.1
Jauan Jennings	1	2	6	11%	-1.3
Brandon Aiyuk	0	1	0	6%	-0.9
Charlie Woerner	0	1	0	6%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Fred Warner	3	2	0.0
Jimmie Ward	3	1	0.0
Jaquiski Tartt	2	2	0.0
Arik Armstead	2	2	2.0
Dre Greenlaw	1	3	0.0
Emmanuel Moseley	4	0	0.0
Dontae Johnson	3	1	0.0
D.J. Jones	1	2	0.0
Azeez Al-Shaair	2	1	0.0
Nick Bosa	3	0	2.0

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	20/29	225	0	0	5	-1.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Aaron Jones	12	41	3.4	0	-0.3
A.J. Dillon	7	25	3.6	1	0.5
Equanimeous St. Brown	1	1	1.0	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Aaron Jones	9	10	129	37%	3.6
Davante Adams	9	11	90	41%	5.4
Allen Lazard	1	1	6	4%	1.3
Josiah Deguara	0	1	0	4%	-0.8
Dominique Dafney	0	2	0	7%	-2.2
Marcedes Lewis	1	1	0	4%	-5.3
Randall Cobb	0	1	0	4%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Krys Barnes	4	3	0.0	0	0
Preston Smith	3	3	0.0	0	0
Adrian Amos	3	2	0.0	1	1
De'Vondre Campbell	4	1	0.0	0	1
Rasul Douglas	3	2	0.0	0	1
Kenny Clark	2	2	1.0	0	0
Dean Lowry	0	3	0.0	0	1
Chandon Sullivan	3	0	0.0	0	0
Rashan Gary	3	0	2.0	0	0
Eric Stokes	2	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: GB -5.5
Closing total: 47
SF moneyline: +228
GB moneyline: -261

Packers closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47; the game landed 23 — under by 24.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lambeau Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 15°F, wind 12 mph
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: SF 6 days · GB 13 days
Coaches: Kyle Shanahan vs Matt LaFleur