2021 Conference Championship · Sun, Jan 30, 2022 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

Kansas City Chiefs

KC -7 upsetU 54.5 ✓Chiefs closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Cincinnati Bengals 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:39, CIN +38% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:39CIN — KC KC ball · 3rd & 9KC 73%

(:39) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at CIN 24 for -15 yards (94-S.Hubbard). FUMBLES (94-S.Hubbard) [94-S.Hubbard], recovered by KC-62-J.Thuney at CIN 26.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:39CIN +38% win prob(:39) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at CIN 24 for -15 yards (94-S.Hubbard). FUMBLES (94-S.Hubbard) [94-S.Hubbard], recovered by KC-62-J.Thuney at CIN 26.
Q3 · 0:18KC +13% win prob(:18) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 3:29KC +12% win prob(3:29) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce to CIN 38 for 18 yards (55-L.Wilson; 30-J.Bates III).
Q4 · 14:01CIN +11% win prob(14:01) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 38-L.Sneed at KC 47. 38-L.Sneed to KC 47 for no gain (1-J.Chase).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bengals	Chiefs
Offensive plays	67	67
Total yards	361	375 (edge)
Yards per play	5.4	5.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.08 (edge)	-0.03
Success rate	45%	55% (edge)
Dropback rate	64%	69%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.20 (edge)	-0.12
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.14	0.16 (edge)
Third downs	8/14 (edge)	6/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	21	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	4
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Chiefs outgained Bengals 375–361 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

26/39, 275 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

-6.4 expected points added · +0.7% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

23/38, 250 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

3.9 expected points added · -1.8% completion over expected

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

21 att, 88 yds, 0 TD

-2.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Jerick McKinnonRB

12 att, 65 yds, 0 TD

1.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Tee HigginsWR

6/10 for 103 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 5.0 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

10/11 for 95 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · 7.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CIN	CIN 25	5	5	1:34	Punt
2	KC	KC 16	12	84	6:09	Touchdown
3	CIN	CIN 25	15	61	6:41	Turnover on downs
4	KC	KC 25	9	75	3:22	Touchdown
5	CIN	CIN 25	7	16	2:14	Punt
6	KC	KC 28	9	67	4:56	Touchdown
7	CIN	CIN 30	9	70	3:59	Touchdown
8	KC	KC 19	8	66	1:05	End of half
9	KC	KC 21	7	16	2:13	Punt
10	CIN	CIN 17	5	46	1:50	Punt
11	KC	KC 7	6	17	2:17	Punt
12	CIN	CIN 35	11	46	5:42	Turnover on downs
13	KC	KC 25	3	7	0:40	Interception
14	CIN	KC 27	6	29	2:04	Touchdown
15	KC	KC 25	5	-2	1:13	Punt
16	CIN	CIN 34	1	0	0:05	Interception
17	KC	KC 47	4	-4	1:29	Punt
18	CIN	CIN 20	11	46	6:23	Turnover on downs
19	KC	KC 25	15	49	6:04	Turnover on downs
20	KC	KC 25	4	0	0:14	Interception
21	CIN	CIN 45	9	42	5:24	Turnover on downs

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 84 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	23/38	250	2	1	1	3.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Joe Mixon	21	88	4.2	-2.2
Joe Burrow	5	25	5.0	3.8
Ja'Marr Chase	1	3	3.0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tee Higgins	6	10	103	0	28%	5.0
Ja'Marr Chase	6	9	54	1	25%	-0.4
Samaje Perine	3	4	43	1	11%	2.1
Joe Mixon	3	3	27	0	8%	1.0
Tyler Boyd	4	6	19	0	17%	0.4
Drew Sample	1	2	4	0	6%	-0.8
C.J. Uzomah	0	2	0	0	6%	-2.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Logan Wilson	3	7	0.0	0	0
Chidobe Awuzie	5	3	0.0	0	0
Sam Hubbard	4	4	2.0	0	0
Germaine Pratt	5	3	0.0	0	0
Eli Apple	6	1	0.0	0	0
B.J. Hill	1	4	0.5	1	1
Vonn Bell	2	3	0.0	1	1
Trey Hendrickson	3	1	1.5	0	0
Jessie Bates	2	2	0.0	0	1
Mike Hilton	2	1	0.0	0	1

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	26/39	275	3	2	4	-6.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jerick McKinnon	12	65	5.4	1.3
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	6	36	6.0	0.3
Patrick Mahomes	3	19	6.3	0.9
Mecole Hardman	2	18	9.0	1.6
Michael Burton	1	1	1.0	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Travis Kelce	10	11	95	1	30%	7.1
Tyreek Hill	7	10	78	1	27%	-1.7
Mecole Hardman	3	4	52	1	11%	3.7
Jerick McKinnon	3	4	30	0	11%	2.0
Byron Pringle	2	3	16	0	8%	-0.6
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	1	2	4	0	5%	-1.0
Demarcus Robinson	0	3	0	0	8%	-7.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
L'Jarius Sneed	7	2	1	1
Juan Thornhill	2	4	0	0
Anthony Hitchens	2	4	0	1
Jarran Reed	2	3	0	0
Charvarius Ward	4	1	0	1
Tyrann Mathieu	5	0	0	0
Rashad Fenton	2	3	0	1
Willie Gay	3	2	0	2
Chris Jones	2	1	0	0
Nick Bolton	2	1	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -7
Closing total: 54.5
CIN moneyline: +250
KC moneyline: -320

Chiefs closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 54.5; the game landed 51 — under by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 41°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: CIN 8 days · KC 7 days
Coaches: Zac Taylor vs Andy Reid