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2021 Conference Championship · Sun, Jan 30, 2022 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Final
BengalsCincinnati27
BY 3final margin
ChiefsKansas City24
Cincinnati Bengals 27 at Kansas City Chiefs 24. Final.
Chiefs -7 upset
The verdict · 2021 Conference Championship
Cincinnati Bengals 27, Chiefs 24 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:39, 3rd and 9, on Patrick Mahomes — 37.9 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:39 · 3rd and 9
Patrick Mahomes
Bengals
(:39) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at CIN 24 for -15 yards (94-S.Hubbard). FUMBLES (94-S.Hubbard) [94-S.Hubbard], recovered by KC-62-J.Thuney at CIN 26.
U 54.5 ✓
Chiefs closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Cincinnati Bengals 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:39, Bengals +37.9% win probability on one snap.
37.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Ja'Marr ChaseBengalsQ3 0:18(:18) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12.9pts
Travis KelceChiefsQ4 3:29(3:29) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce to CIN 38 for 18 yards (55-L.Wilson; 30-J.Bates III).
11.7pts
What separated them
Red zone
Chiefs owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Bengals at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Chiefsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Chiefs owned this one and still lost it — +0.16 expected points per carry, against Bengals at -0.14 expected points per carry.
Chiefsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Chiefs owned this one and still lost it — 55% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bengals at 45% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chiefsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Bengals won this one — +0.20 expected points per dropback, against Chiefs at -0.12 expected points per dropback.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Bengals169 of 183 plays carry both curves
(:39) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at CIN 24 for -15 yards (94-S.Hubbard). FUMBLES (94-S.Hubbard) [94-S.Hubbard], recovered by KC-62-J.Thuney at CIN 26.
Swing −37.9 for ChiefsExpected points −0.51 for ChiefsThe model had Bengals 16 points higher than the market did.play 165
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:39CIN +38% win prob(:39) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at CIN 24 for -15 yards (94-S.Hubbard). FUMBLES (94-S.Hubbard) [94-S.Hubbard], recovered by KC-62-J.Thuney at CIN 26.
3rd · 0:18KC +13% win prob(:18) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:29KC +12% win prob(3:29) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce to CIN 38 for 18 yards (55-L.Wilson; 30-J.Bates III).
4th · 14:01CIN +11% win prob(14:01) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 38-L.Sneed at KC 47. 38-L.Sneed to KC 47 for no gain (1-J.Chase).
Overtime · 12:51KC +11% win prob(12:51) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 85-T.Higgins to KC 32 for 8 yards (27-R.Fenton).
4th · 1:38KC +11% win prob(1:38) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce to CIN 5 for 2 yards (94-S.Hubbard; 57-G.Pratt).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Evan McPherson's 31-yard field goal with 9:26 left in overtime put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st7:25Tyreek Hill·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+70–7
1st0:40Evan McPherson·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+33–7
2nd12:23Travis Kelce·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+73–14
2nd5:09Mecole Hardman·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+73–21
2nd1:15Samaje Perine·41-yd TD catch41-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+710–21
3rd3:02Evan McPherson·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+313–21
3rd0:18Ja'Marr Chase·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow · two-point good+821–21
4th6:07Evan McPherson·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+324–21
4th0:03Harrison Butker·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+324–24
Overtime9:26Evan McPherson·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.HarrisLead never changed again+327–24
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bengalscategory by categoryChiefs
Bengals4–5Chiefs
361Total yards375
5.4Yards per play5.6
45%Success rate55%
57%Third-down rate50%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
7Explosive plays5
21First downs23
1Sacks taken4
1Turnovers2
The read
Chiefs ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bengals, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.08Bengals: +0.08 expected points added per play
−0.03Chiefs: −0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.20Bengals: +0.20 expected points added per play
−0.12Chiefs: −0.12 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.14Bengals: −0.14 expected points added per play
+0.16Chiefs: +0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 67 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 67 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 5, Chiefs 5.
NoteChiefs outgained Bengals 375-361 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2021 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 25 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −5.2 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−1.08× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Chiefs9.3%
inside their normal wobble · −3.4 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (−0.62× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCIN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 8.7%, 5.2 points below their season mean of 13.8% and 1.1 times their own 4.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
67Quinton SpainG · Every snap100%69 snaps
75Isaiah PrinceT · Every snap100%69 snaps
—Jonah WilliamsT · Every snap100%69 snaps
66Trey HopkinsC · Every snap100%69 snaps
9Joe BurrowQB · Every snap100%69 snaps
1Ja'Marr ChaseWR · Every snap99%68 snaps
89Drew SampleTE · Full-time90%62 snaps
85Tee HigginsWR · Full-time87%60 snaps
28Joe MixonRB · Heavy rotation75%52 snaps
83Tyler BoydWR · Heavy rotation70%48 snaps
79Jackson CarmanG · Heavy rotation51%35 snaps
77Hakeem AdenijiG · Rotational49%34 snaps
84Mitchell WilcoxTE · Rotational26%18 snaps
34Samaje PerineRB · Rotational25%17 snaps
87C.J. UzomahTE · Situational13%9 snaps
70D'Ante SmithG · Situational12%8 snaps
80Mike ThomasWR · Situational3%2 snaps
11Trent TaylorWR · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Vernon HargreavesCBCameron SampleDEJosh TupouNTTrayveon WilliamsRBFred JohnsonTTrenton IrwinWRStanley MorganWR
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
P.Mahomes sacked−30% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:39) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at CIN 24 for -15 yards (94-S.Hubbard). FUMBLES (94-S.Hubbard) [94-S.Hubbard], recovered by KC-62-J.Thuney at CIN 26.
Q4 0:39 · Chiefs · 3rd & goal at CIN 9 · lost 17 · -0.51 EP · −30.0% win probability
167 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 183 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 183 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 84 yards from the KC 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
183 of 183 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
183
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
48%
Yards
736
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49-0.1067%
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47+0.2777%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.0353%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.3925%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8-0.3413%
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
183 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
183 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 30
Bengals0Chiefs6
Bengals0Chiefs7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Chiefs 16 to the Bengals 10
Bengals3Chiefs7
Field goal15 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Chiefs 14
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter46 plays
Bengals3Chiefs13
Bengals3Chiefs14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bengals 31 to the Bengals 5
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 41
Bengals3Chiefs20
Bengals3Chiefs21
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chiefs 28 to the Bengals 3
Bengals9Chiefs21
Bengals10Chiefs21
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Chiefs 39
The period ended13 plays, from the Chiefs 19 to the Bengals 1
3rd quarter44 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Chiefs 21 to the Chiefs 37
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 17 to the Chiefs 37
Punt6 plays, from the Chiefs 7 to the Chiefs 24
Bengals13Chiefs21
Field goal12 plays, from the Bengals 35 to the Chiefs 8
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 32
Bengals19Chiefs21
Bengals21Chiefs21
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chiefs 27 to the Chiefs 2
The period ended4 plays
4th quarter41 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, one linebacker and seven backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThree
Punt2 plays
Intercepted1 play
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 47 to the Bengals 49
Bengals24Chiefs21
Field goal14 plays, from the Bengals 20 to the Chiefs 34
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Bengals24Chiefs24
Field goal19 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Bengals 4
Overtime15 plays
Intercepted4 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Bengals27Chiefs24
Field goal10 plays, from the Bengals 45 to the Chiefs 10
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
