For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Conference Championship · Sun, Jan 30, 2022 · SoFi Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Conference Championship
It turned at Q4 1:19, 3rd and 13, on Travin Howard — 21.9 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:19 · 3rd and 13
Travin Howard
Rams
(1:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left intended for 23-J.Hasty INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Howard [99-A.Donald] at SF 19. 32-T.Howard to SF 13 for 6 yards (66-T.Compton).
Los Angeles Rams 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:19, Rams +21.9% win probability on one snap.
21.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Rams won this one — 11 of 17 on third down, against 49ers at 3 of 9 on third down.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Rams won this one — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against 49ers at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Rams won this one — 6 chunk plays, against 49ers at 3 chunk plays.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Rams won this one — +0.07 expected points per snap, against 49ers at -0.06 expected points per snap.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 3.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about 49ers.
(1:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left intended for 23-J.Hasty INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Howard [99-A.Donald] at SF 19. 32-T.Howard to SF 13 for 6 yards (66-T.Compton).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Matt Gay's 30-yard field goal with 1:49 left in the 4th put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Matt Gay30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap M.OrzechLead never changed again+317–207 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
49erscategory by categoryRams
Rams ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to 49ers, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.45 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 49 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Rams’s 73 at 66%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 3, Rams 6.
Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
6 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2021 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →49ers-5.8 ptsright on their number · +0.8 vs their -6.6 pts, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.11× that swing) · 49 snaps
Rams4.3 ptsright on their number · +1.5 vs their 2.8 pts, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.27× that swing) · 73 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 13% to 86%
Tendencies room →49ers55.0%right on their number · +5.6 vs their 49.4%, and they swing ±14.2 week to week (+0.39× that swing) · 40 early downs
Rams60.0%right on their number · +1.8 vs their 58.2%, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (+0.18× that swing) · 55 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -43% to 90%
Fourth Down room →49ers—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 23.3%.
Rams—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 28.6%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 33%
Tendencies room →49ers16.7%right on their number · +0.8 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.13× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Rams10.0%inside their normal wobble · −2.7 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (−0.58× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Nothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was LA's sack or hit rate, 10.0% against a season mean of 12.7% — and LA swings 4.6 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · LA
31/45, 337 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
13.1 expected points added · +6.4% completion over expected
Passing · SF
16/30, 232 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
6.1 expected points added · -18.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Jimmy Garoppolo banked 5.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo SamuelWR · Featured Receiver | 19.8 | +5.0 | 76% | 81% | 24% | 13% | 7 car, 26 yd · 4/7, 72 yd, 1 TD |
| Jimmy GaroppoloQB · Starter QB | 15.7 | +5.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/30, 232 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, 4 yd |
| Brandon AiyukWR · Alpha Receiver | 10.9 | −1.7 | 94% | 94% | 28% | 53% | 4/8, 69 yd |
| George KittleTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.7 | +1.5 | 100% | 97% | 17% | 34% | 2/5, 27 yd, 1 TD |
| Elijah MitchellRB · Committee Back | 10.0 | +0.2 | 47% | 39% | 10% | 4% | 11 car, 20 yd · 3/3, 50 yd |
| Jauan JenningsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | −0.2 | 53% | 61% | 7% | 1% | 2/2, 8 yd |
| Jamycal HastyRB · Receiving Back | 1.6 | −2.4 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kyle JuszczykRB | 0.0 | −0.4 | 67% | 58% | 0% | — | 1 car, 0 yd |
| Trey SermonRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Travis BenjaminWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left intended for 23-J.Hasty INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Howard [99-A.Donald] at SF 19. 32-T.Howard to SF 13 for 6 yards (66-T.Compton).
Q4 1:19 · 49ers · 3rd & 13 at SF 22 · gained nothing · -4.56 EP · −18.6% win probability
154 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 167 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 97 yards from the LA 3 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
49ers0
Rams649ers0Rams749ers6Rams749ers7Rams749ers10Rams749ers16Rams749ers17Rams749ers17Rams1349ers17Rams1449ers17Rams1749ers17Rams20Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: 49ers at Rams, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 16/30 | 232 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +6.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 11 | 20 | 1.8 | 0 | −5.4 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel | 4 | 7 | 72 | 1 | 24% | +5.6 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 4 | 8 | 69 | 0 | 28% | +1.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ambry Thomas | 8 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jimmie Ward | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Fred Warner | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jaquiski Tartt |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 31/45 | 337 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +13.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Akers |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_21_SF_LA
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Rams closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 37 — under by 8.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Kyle Juszczyk | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −1.7 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 3 | 3 | 50 | 0 | 10% | +3.5 |
| George Kittle | 2 | 5 | 27 | 1 | 17% | +0.2 |
| Jauan Jennings | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 7% | +1.3 |
| Jamycal Hasty | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 10% | −4.7 |
| Travis Benjamin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.9 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Nick Bosa | 4 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Moseley | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Azeez Al-Shaair | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| K'Waun Williams | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| D.J. Jones | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Willis | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 |
| 48 |
| 3.7 |
| 0 |
| −2.4 |
| Sony Michel | 10 | 16 | 1.6 | 0 | −2.9 |
| Matthew Stafford | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 | −6.0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 11 | 14 | 142 | 2 | 33% | +11.1 |
| Odell Beckham | 9 | 11 | 113 | 0 | 26% | +7.4 |
| Kendall Blanton | 5 | 5 | 57 | 0 | 12% | +4.8 |
| Tyler Higbee | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 7% | +0.4 |
| Van Jefferson | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 12% | −1.4 |
| Cam Akers | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2% | −0.5 |
| Ben Skowronek | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.4 |
| Sony Michel | 1 | 2 | -4 | 0 | 5% | −2.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Weddle | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Reeder | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| A'Shawn Robinson | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Scott | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darious Williams | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Greg Gaines | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Ogbonnia Okoronkwo | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Travin Howard | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Von Miller | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Buddy Howell | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
