2021 Conference Championship · Sun, Jan 30, 2022 · SoFi Stadium

San Francisco 49ers

Los Angeles RamsWinner

LA -3.5 no coverU 45.5 ✓DomeRams closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Los Angeles Rams 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:19, SF +22% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:19SF — LA SF ball · 3rd & 13LA 75%

(1:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left intended for 23-J.Hasty INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Howard [99-A.Donald] at SF 19. 32-T.Howard to SF 13 for 6 yards (66-T.Compton).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:19SF +22% win prob(1:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left intended for 23-J.Hasty INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Howard [99-A.Donald] at SF 19. 32-T.Howard to SF 13 for 6 yards (66-T.Compton).
Q4 · 3:26LA +16% win prob(3:26) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 10-C.Kupp to SF 12 for 25 yards (1-J.Ward).
Q1 · 7:04SF +15% win prob(7:04) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle intended for 10-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 1-J.Ward (24-K.Williams) at SF 0. 1-J.Ward to SF 23 for 23 yards (79-R.Havenstein).
Q4 · 8:50LA +14% win prob(8:50) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 10-C.Kupp to SF 25 for 16 yards (1-J.Ward; 29-T.Hufanga).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	49ers	Rams
Offensive plays	49	73
Total yards	282	402 (edge)
Yards per play	5.8 (edge)	5.5
Expected points added / play	-0.06	0.07 (edge)
Success rate	33%	45% (edge)
Dropback rate	61%	66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.19	0.32 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.45	-0.41 (edge)
Third downs	3/9	11/17 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	14	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	2
Turnovers	1	1

Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.06.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

31/45, 337 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

13.1 expected points added · +6.4% completion over expected

Passing · SF

Jimmy GaroppoloQB

16/30, 232 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

6.1 expected points added · -18.0% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Cam AkersRB

13 att, 48 yds, 0 TD

-2.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Deebo SamuelWR

7 att, 26 yds, 0 TD

-1.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Cooper KuppWR

11/14 for 142 yds, 2 TD

33% of team targets · 11.1 expected points added

Receiving · LA

Odell BeckhamWR

9/11 for 113 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 7.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LA	LA 25	5	6	0:54	Punt
2	SF	SF 20	4	3	1:41	Punt
3	LA	LA 33	10	64	5:32	Interception
4	SF	SF 23	7	37	3:34	Punt
5	LA	LA 3	19	88	9:33	Touchdown
6	SF	SF 25	6	80	2:36	Touchdown
7	LA	LA 23	13	41	4:20	Turnover on downs
8	SF	SF 44	8	36	1:50	Turnover on downs
9	SF	SF 18	10	30	4:11	Punt
10	LA	LA 11	7	46	2:56	Turnover on downs
11	SF	SF 42	11	58	5:54	Touchdown
12	LA	LA 25	9	60	3:29	Touchdown
13	SF	SF 14	8	41	3:35	Punt
14	LA	LA 15	9	48	3:06	Turnover on downs
15	SF	SF 25	5	0	0:23	Punt
16	LA	LA 39	10	49	4:40	Turnover on downs
17	SF	SF 25	4	-3	0:37	Interception
18	LA	SF 13	3	0	1:09	End of game

0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Rams gained 88 scrimmage yards over 19 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jimmy Garoppolo	16/30	232	2	1	0	6.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Deebo Samuel	7	26	3.7	-1.5
Elijah Mitchell	11	20	1.8	-5.4
Jimmy Garoppolo	1	4	4.0	-0.5
Kyle Juszczyk	1	0	0.0	-1.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Deebo Samuel	4	7	72	1	24%	5.6
Brandon Aiyuk	4	8	69	0	28%	1.2
Elijah Mitchell	3	3	50	0	10%	3.5
George Kittle	2	5	27	1	17%	0.2
Jauan Jennings	2	2	8	0	7%	1.3
Jamycal Hasty	1	3	6	0	10%	-4.7
Travis Benjamin	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Ambry Thomas	8	3	0.0	0	0
Jimmie Ward	4	4	0.0	1	1
Fred Warner	5	3	0.0	0	1
Jaquiski Tartt	3	3	0.0	0	0
Nick Bosa	4	2	1.5	0	0
Emmanuel Moseley	5	0	0.0	0	0
Azeez Al-Shaair	2	3	0.0	0	0
K'Waun Williams	2	1	0.0	0	1
D.J. Jones	1	2	0.0	0	0
Jordan Willis	1	1	0.0	0	0

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	31/45	337	2	1	2	13.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Cam Akers	13	48	3.7	-2.4
Sony Michel	10	16	1.6	-2.9
Matthew Stafford	5	8	1.6	-6.0
Cooper Kupp	1	-2	-2.0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cooper Kupp	11	14	142	2	33%	11.1
Odell Beckham	9	11	113	0	26%	7.4
Kendall Blanton	5	5	57	0	12%	4.8
Tyler Higbee	2	3	18	0	7%	0.4
Van Jefferson	2	5	9	0	12%	-1.4
Cam Akers	1	1	2	0	2%	-0.5
Ben Skowronek	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.4
Sony Michel	1	2	-4	0	5%	-2.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Eric Weddle	3	5	0	0
Troy Reeder	5	2	0	1
A'Shawn Robinson	3	3	0	0
Nick Scott	3	1	0	0
Darious Williams	2	2	0	1
Greg Gaines	1	2	0	2
Ogbonnia Okoronkwo	1	1	0	0
Travin Howard	1	1	1	1
Von Miller	1	1	0	0
Buddy Howell	2	0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LA -3.5
Closing total: 45.5
SF moneyline: +155
LA moneyline: -180

Rams closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 37 — under by 8.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: SF 8 days · LA 7 days
Coaches: Kyle Shanahan vs Sean McVay

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.