2021 Super Bowl · Sun, Feb 13, 2022 · SoFi Stadium

Los Angeles RamsWinner

Cincinnati Bengals

LA -4.5 no coverU 48.5 ✓DomeRams closed -4.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Los Angeles Rams 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 15:00, CIN +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 15:00LA — CIN CIN ball · 1st & 10LA 72%

(15:00) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 85-T.Higgins for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 15:00CIN +19% win prob(15:00) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 85-T.Higgins for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 3:06CIN +19% win prob(3:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 10-C.Kupp to CIN 24 for 22 yards (30-J.Bates III).
Q4 · 0:43LA +14% win prob(:43) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short right to 34-S.Perine [99-A.Donald].
Q4 · 11:55LA +12% win prob(11:55) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at CIN 28 for -6 yards (40-V.Miller). CIN-9-J.Burrow was injured during the play. PENALTY on CIN-75-I.Prince, Unnecessary Roughness, 14 yards, enforced between downs.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Rams	Bengals
Offensive plays	66	60
Total yards	314 (edge)	306
Yards per play	4.8	5.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.07 (edge)	-0.12
Success rate	39% (edge)	37%
Dropback rate	68%	70%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.09 (edge)	-0.09
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.40	-0.18 (edge)
Third downs	6/15 (edge)	3/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	5 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	17 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	7
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.12.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

26/40, 283 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

6.1 expected points added · -0.6% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

22/33, 263 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-7.7 expected points added · -3.0% completion over expected

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

15 att, 72 yds, 0 TD

-0.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LA

Cam AkersRB

13 att, 21 yds, 0 TD

-7.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Tee HigginsWR

4/7 for 100 yds, 2 TD

21% of team targets · 7.6 expected points added

Receiving · LA

Cooper KuppWR

8/10 for 92 yds, 2 TD

25% of team targets · 7.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LA	LA 25	7	1	3:06	Punt
2	CIN	CIN 42	4	9	1:57	Turnover on downs
3	LA	50	7	50	3:35	Touchdown
4	CIN	CIN 25	5	6	1:34	Punt
5	LA	LA 28	4	12	2:39	Punt
6	CIN	CIN 30	6	59	1:41	Turnover on downs
7	LA	LA 25	8	75	2:37	Touchdown
8	CIN	CIN 25	14	75	7:04	Touchdown
9	LA	LA 25	9	37	3:47	Interception
10	CIN	CIN 10	6	7	1:30	Punt
11	LA	LA 41	4	9	0:26	Punt
12	CIN	CIN 20	1	0	0:04	End of half
13	CIN	CIN 25	3	75	0:12	Touchdown
14	LA	LA 17	2	0	0:10	Interception
15	CIN	LA 31	8	11	4:23	Turnover on downs
16	LA	LA 25	11	52	4:17	Turnover on downs
17	CIN	CIN 25	5	-3	1:30	Punt
18	LA	LA 47	4	-3	1:41	Punt
19	CIN	CIN 16	4	5	2:11	Punt
20	LA	LA 48	4	3	1:31	Punt
21	CIN	CIN 16	6	12	2:36	Punt
22	LA	LA 35	4	6	1:31	Punt
23	CIN	CIN 16	8	24	3:45	Punt
24	LA	LA 21	16	72	4:48	Touchdown
25	CIN	CIN 25	6	26	0:46	Turnover on downs
26	LA	LA 49	1	0	0:39	End of game

0 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Rams gained 75 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	26/40	283	3	2	2	6.1
Cooper Kupp	0/1	0	0	0	0	-1.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Cam Akers	13	21	1.6	-7.3
Cooper Kupp	1	7	7.0	2.4
Darrell Henderson	4	7	1.8	-2.0
Matthew Stafford	3	6	2.0	0.0
Sony Michel	2	2	1.0	-1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cooper Kupp	8	10	92	2	25%	7.7
Odell Beckham	2	3	52	1	8%	6.1
Brycen Hopkins	4	4	47	0	10%	5.5
Darrell Henderson	3	5	43	0	13%	2.9
Van Jefferson	4	8	23	0	20%	-5.1
Cam Akers	3	4	14	0	10%	-0.3
Ben Skowronek	2	5	12	0	13%	-6.2
Matthew Stafford	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Darious Williams	2	5	0.0	1
Taylor Rapp	4	3	0.0	0
Ernest Jones	5	1	1.0	1
Eric Weddle	3	1	0.0	0
Jalen Ramsey	3	1	0.0	1
Leonard Floyd	3	1	1.0	0
David Long	3	1	0.0	0
Aaron Donald	2	1	2.0	0
A'Shawn Robinson	2	1	1.0	0
Von Miller	2	0	2.0	1

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	22/33	263	1	0	7	-7.7
Joe Mixon	1/1	6	1	0	0	1.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Joe Mixon	15	72	4.8	-0.9
Ja'Marr Chase	1	4	4.0	0.8
Joe Burrow	2	3	1.5	1.9
Samaje Perine	2	0	0.0	-3.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tee Higgins	4	7	100	2	21%	7.6
Ja'Marr Chase	5	8	89	0	24%	0.7
Tyler Boyd	5	6	48	0	18%	1.6
Mike Thomas	1	1	17	0	3%	0.6
C.J. Uzomah	2	2	11	0	6%	0.4
Chris Evans	1	2	3	0	6%	-0.8
Joe Mixon	5	6	1	0	18%	-3.6
Samaje Perine	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Logan Wilson	7	1	0	1
Sam Hubbard	4	3	0	0
Germaine Pratt	4	3	0	0
Vonn Bell	4	2	0	0
Jessie Bates	3	3	1	1
Eli Apple	2	2	0	1
Chidobe Awuzie	4	0	1	1
B.J. Hill	1	2	0	0
Mike Thomas	1	1	0	0
Mike Hilton	1	1	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LA -4.5
Closing total: 48.5
LA moneyline: -190
CIN moneyline: +160

Rams closed -4.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 43 — under by 5.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: LA 14 days · CIN 14 days
Coaches: Sean McVay vs Zac Taylor