For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Rams 23 – Bengals 20 (2021 Super Bowl) | Box Score, Drive Chart & Win Probability | Dynatyze
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:24 AM ET · 16 to play
2021 Super Bowl · Sun, Feb 13, 2022 · SoFi Stadium
Final
RamsLos Angeles23
BY 3final margin
BengalsCincinnati20
Los Angeles Rams 23 at Cincinnati Bengals 20. Final.
Rams -4.5 no coverU 48.5 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Super Bowl
Los Angeles Rams 23, Bengals 20 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q3 15:00, 1st and 10, on Tee Higgins — 19.0 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 15:00 · 1st and 10
Tee Higgins
Bengals
(15:00) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 85-T.Higgins for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Rams closed -4.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Los Angeles Rams 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 15:00, Bengals +19.0% win probability on one snap.
19.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Cooper KuppRamsQ4 3:06(3:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 10-C.Kupp to CIN 24 for 22 yards (30-J.Bates III).
18.5pts
Joe BurrowRamsQ4 0:43(:43) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short right to 34-S.Perine [99-A.Donald].
13.9pts
What separated them
Red zone
Rams won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Bengals at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Rams at 2 giveaways.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Rams won this one — 6 of 15 on third down, against Bengals at 3 of 14 on third down.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — -0.18 expected points per carry, against Rams at -0.40 expected points per carry.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 14.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 26 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Rams164 of 173 plays carry both curves
(15:00) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 85-T.Higgins for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +19.0 for BengalsExpected points +5.99 for BengalsThe model had Bengals 17 points higher than the market did.play 86
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 15:00CIN +19% win prob(15:00) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 85-T.Higgins for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:06CIN +19% win prob(3:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 10-C.Kupp to CIN 24 for 22 yards (30-J.Bates III).
4th · 0:43LA +14% win prob(:43) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short right to 34-S.Perine [99-A.Donald].
4th · 11:55LA +12% win prob(11:55) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at CIN 28 for -6 yards (40-V.Miller). CIN-9-J.Burrow was injured during the play. PENALTY on CIN-75-I.Prince, Unnecessary Roughness, 14 yards, enforced between downs.
3rd · 14:44LA +10% win prob(14:44) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle intended for 18-B.Skowronek INTERCEPTED by 22-C.Awuzie at LA 32. 22-C.Awuzie to LA 31 for 1 yard (18-B.Skowronek).
3rd · 3:35LA +9% win prob(3:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at LA 44 for -6 yards (98-D.Reader).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cooper Kupp's 1-yard touchdown catch with 1:29 left in the 4th put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st6:26Odell Beckham·17-yd TD catch17-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+77–0
1st0:31Evan McPherson·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+37–3
2nd12:56Cooper Kupp·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford · two-point no good+613–3
2nd5:52Tee Higgins·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Mixonfrom Joe Mixon+713–10
3rd15:00Tee Higgins·75-yd TD catch75-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+713–17
3rd10:19Evan McPherson·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+313–20
3rd6:02Matt Gay·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap M.Orzech+316–20
4th1:29Cooper Kupp·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew StaffordLead never changed again+723–20
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ramscategory by categoryBengals
Rams6–3Bengals
314Total yards306
4.8Yards per play5.1
39%Success rate37%
40%Third-down rate21%
3Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays5
17First downs15
2Sacks taken7
2Turnovers0
The read
Rams ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bengals, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.40 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.07Rams: −0.07 expected points added per play
−0.12Bengals: −0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.09Rams: +0.09 expected points added per play
−0.09Bengals: −0.09 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.40Rams: −0.40 expected points added per play
−0.18Bengals: −0.18 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 66 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Bengals’s 60 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Rams 3, Bengals 4.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LA's sack or hit rate, 26.2%, sat 13.5 points above their season number of 12.7% — they got home by 2.9 times their own 4.6-point weekly swing.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2021 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 21 pts
off script — got home · +13.5 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (+2.93× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Bengals11.1%
inside their normal wobble · −2.7 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−0.57× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 26.2%, 13.5 points above their season mean of 12.7% and 2.9 times their own 4.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
79Rob HavensteinT · Every snap100%69 snaps
63Austin CorbettG · Every snap100%69 snaps
73David EdwardsG · Every snap100%69 snaps
77Andrew WhitworthT · Every snap100%69 snaps
55Brian AllenC · Every snap100%69 snaps
9Matthew StaffordQB · Every snap100%69 snaps
12Van JeffersonWR · Every snap99%68 snaps
10Cooper KuppWR · Every snap99%68 snaps
18Ben SkowronekWR · Heavy rotation67%46 snaps
88Brycen HopkinsTE · Heavy rotation57%39 snaps
23Cam AkersRB · Heavy rotation57%39 snaps
86Kendall BlantonTE · Rotational43%30 snaps
3Odell BeckhamWR · Rotational35%24 snaps
27Darrell HendersonRB · Rotational32%22 snaps
25Sony MichelRB · Situational10%7 snaps
19Brandon PowellWR · Situational1%1 snap
38Buddy HowellRB · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Chris GarrettLBBobby BrownNTTerrell LewisOLBBryce PerkinsQBJake FunkRBBlake CountessSSTremayne AnchrumT
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Donte DeayonCBJohn WolfordQB
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
77Hakeem AdenijiG · Every snap100%61 snaps
—Jonah WilliamsT · Every snap100%61 snaps
75Isaiah PrinceT · Every snap100%61 snaps
67Quinton SpainG · Every snap100%61 snaps
66Trey HopkinsC · Every snap100%61 snaps
9Joe BurrowQB · Every snap100%61 snaps
1Ja'Marr ChaseWR · Full-time95%58 snaps
85Tee HigginsWR · Full-time92%56 snaps
83Tyler BoydWR · Full-time82%50 snaps
87C.J. UzomahTE · Full-time80%49 snaps
28Joe MixonRB · Heavy rotation72%44 snaps
89Drew SampleTE · Rotational31%19 snaps
34Samaje PerineRB · Situational21%13 snaps
80Mike ThomasWR · Situational8%5 snaps
25Chris EvansRB · Situational7%4 snaps
70D'Ante SmithG · Situational7%4 snaps
11Trent TaylorWR · Situational3%2 snaps
84Mitchell WilcoxTE · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Vernon HargreavesCBWyatt RayDEMike DanielsDTTyler ShelvinNTTrayveon WilliamsRBFred JohnsonTTrenton IrwinWR
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Burrow pass+21% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(15:00) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 85-T.Higgins for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 15:00 · Bengals · 1st & 10 at CIN 25 · gained 75 · +5.99 EP · +20.6% win probability
162 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 79 yards from the LA 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
35%
Yards
618
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR65-0.0666%
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.2579%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.4825%
Bengals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR5+0.22100%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Rams0 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
Bengals0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 36
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Bengals 42 to the Rams 49
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Rams6Bengals0
Rams7Bengals0
Touchdown7 plays, from midfield to the Bengals 17
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 31
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 28 to the Rams 35
Rams7Bengals3
Field goal6 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Rams 11
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter46 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Rams13Bengals3
Touchdown7 plays, from the Rams 24 to the Bengals 11
Rams13Bengals9
Rams13Bengals10
Touchdown14 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Rams 6
Intercepted10 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Bengals 39
Punt8 plays, from the Bengals 10 to the Bengals 25
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 41 to midfield
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.9 seconds
Rams13Bengals16
Rams13Bengals17
Touchdown3 plays
Intercepted2 plays
Rams13Bengals20
Field goal8 plays, from the Rams 31 to the Rams 11
Rams16Bengals20
Field goal11 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Bengals 21
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 29
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 47 to midfield
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 16 to the Bengals 21
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter50 plays
Punt3 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 16 to the Bengals 34
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 35 to the Rams 42
Punt8 plays, from the Bengals 16 to the Bengals 40
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Rams22Bengals20
Rams23Bengals20
Touchdown20 plays, from the Rams 21 to the Bengals 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defenders
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.7 seconds
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Rams 49
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
