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Baltimore Ravens 24, Jets 9 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 5:07, 1st and 19, on Marcus Williams — 13.3 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:07 · 1st and 19
Marcus Williams
Ravens
(5:07) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass short middle intended for 81-L.Cager INTERCEPTED by 32-M.Williams at NYJ 46. 32-M.Williams to NYJ 13 for 33 yards (19-J.Flacco).
Ravens closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 15.
Baltimore Ravens 24–9. Biggest swing: Q1 5:07, Ravens +13.3% win probability on one snap.
13.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Joe FlaccoRavensQ1 14:01(14:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass incomplete short right [93-C.Campbell]. PENALTY on NYJ-19-J.Flacco, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 46.
7.0pts
Joe FlaccoJetsQ1 8:31(8:31) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep left to 8-E.Moore. PENALTY on BAL-44-M.Humphrey, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 12 - No Play.
4.8pts
What separated them
Third down
Ravens won this one — 5 of 13 on third down, against Jets at 2 of 14 on third down.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Ravens won this one — +0.06 expected points per snap, against Jets at -0.20 expected points per snap.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.17 expected points per dropback, against Jets at -0.19 expected points per dropback.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Ravens at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Ravens169 of 177 plays carry both curves
(5:07) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass short middle intended for 81-L.Cager INTERCEPTED by 32-M.Williams at NYJ 46. 32-M.Williams to NYJ 13 for 33 yards (19-J.Flacco).
Swing −13.3 for JetsExpected points −6.82 for JetsThe model had Jets 26 points higher than the market did.play 29
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 5:07BAL +13% win prob(5:07) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass short middle intended for 81-L.Cager INTERCEPTED by 32-M.Williams at NYJ 46. 32-M.Williams to NYJ 13 for 33 yards (19-J.Flacco).
1st · 14:01BAL +7% win prob(14:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass incomplete short right [93-C.Campbell]. PENALTY on NYJ-19-J.Flacco, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 46.
1st · 8:31NYJ +5% win prob(8:31) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep left to 8-E.Moore. PENALTY on BAL-44-M.Humphrey, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 12 - No Play.
1st · 6:08BAL +4% win prob(6:08) 11-J.Stout punts 48 yards to NYJ 17, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.
2nd · 10:55BAL +4% win prob(10:55) 6-G.Zuerlein 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.
3rd · 7:20NYJ +4% win prob(7:20) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 13-D.Duvernay for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Justin Tucker's 24-yard field goal with 3:19 left in the 1st put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st3:19Justin Tucker·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap N.MooreLead never changed again+33–0
4th1:04Tyler Conklin·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Flaccofrom Joe Flacco · kick no good, wide left+624–9
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ravenscategory by categoryJets
Ravens5–3Jets
276Total yards380
5.4Yards per play4.8
39%Success rate38%
38%Third-down rate14%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
3Explosive plays4
12First downs21
2Sacks taken3
1Turnovers2
The read
Ravens ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.06Ravens: +0.06 expected points added per play
−0.20Jets: −0.20 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.17Ravens: +0.17 expected points added per play
−0.19Jets: −0.19 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.17Ravens: −0.17 expected points added per play
−0.24Jets: −0.24 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 51 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Jets’s 79 at 78%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 4, Jets 2.
NoteJets outgained Ravens 380-276 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NYJ's early-down pass rate, 73.8%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 1.7 points clear of the next team along.
61 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · +1.5 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+0.26× that swing) · 62 dropbacks
Jets11.8%
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.8 vs their 19.6%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−1.06× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
NoteNYJ's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 6.1 pts, 9.2 points above their season mean of -3.1 pts and 1.8 times their own 5.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
72Ben PowersG · Every snap100%56 snaps
78Morgan MosesT · Every snap100%56 snaps
70Kevin ZeitlerG · Every snap100%56 snaps
64Tyler LinderbaumC · Every snap100%56 snaps
8Lamar JacksonQB · Every snap100%56 snaps
89Mark AndrewsTE · Full-time84%47 snaps
7Rashod BatemanWR · Heavy rotation66%37 snaps
42Patrick RicardFB · Heavy rotation64%36 snaps
17Kenyan DrakeRB · Heavy rotation59%33 snaps
65Patrick MekariG · Heavy rotation57%32 snaps
13Devin DuvernayWR · Heavy rotation52%29 snaps
10Demarcus RobinsonWR · Rotational45%25 snaps
80Isaiah LikelyTE · Rotational45%25 snaps
71Ja'Wuan JamesT · Rotational43%24 snaps
84Josh OliverTE · Rotational34%19 snaps
43Justice HillRB · Situational20%11 snaps
28Mike DavisRB · Situational13%7 snaps
16Tylan WallaceWR · Situational11%6 snaps
3James ProcheWR · Situational9%5 snaps
Inactive · 7
Marcus PetersCBTravis JonesDTJaylon FergusonOLBJ.K. DobbinsRBDaniel FaaleleTRonnie StanleyTNick BoyleTE
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4
J.Flacco pass−18% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(5:07) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass short middle intended for 81-L.Cager INTERCEPTED by 32-M.Williams at NYJ 46. 32-M.Williams to NYJ 13 for 33 yards (19-J.Flacco).
Q1 5:07 · Jets · 1st & 19 at NYJ 32 · gained nothing · -6.82 EP · −17.6% win probability
167 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps, manual charting on 155. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 88 yards from the BAL 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
-0.10
Success rate
37%
Yards
654
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR59-0.1585%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR19+0.3263%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.5150%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.1186%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR10-0.1820%
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.1380%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR4——
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Ravens0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Jets0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 22 to the Jets 46
Punt8 plays, from the Ravens 28 to the Ravens 49
Punt7 plays, from the Jets 11 to the Jets 18
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 34 to the Ravens 35
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Jets 17 to the Jets 41
Ravens3Jets0
Field goal4 plays, from the Jets 13 to the Jets 6
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 34
The period ended4 plays, from the Ravens 16 to the Ravens 29
2nd quarter43 plays
Punt2 plays
No good8 plays, from the Jets 29 to the Ravens 27
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 35 to the Jets 49
Punt7 plays, from the Jets 11 to the Jets 36
Ravens9Jets0
Ravens10Jets0
Touchdown5 plays, from the Ravens 38 to the Jets 25
Ravens10Jets3
Field goal11 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Ravens 27
The period ended1 play
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 36
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Jets 24
Ravens16Jets3
Ravens17Jets3
Touchdown7 plays, from the Jets 44 to the Jets 17
Punt8 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 39
Ravens23Jets3
Ravens24Jets3
Touchdown6 plays, from the Ravens 12 to the Ravens 45
The period ended7 plays, from the Jets 9 to the Jets 48
4th quarter4 plays
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Ravens 40 to the Ravens 22
3rd quarter1 plays
4th quarter47 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Ravens 23 to the Ravens 38
Turnover on downs17 plays, from the Jets 32 to the Ravens 6
Intercepted5 plays, from the Ravens 7 to the Ravens 11
Ravens24Jets9
Touchdown14 plays, from the Ravens 43 to the Ravens 3
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Ravens -6.5
Closing total
44
Ravens moneyline
-265
Jets moneyline
+231
Ravens closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 15.
Total closed 44; the game landed 33 — under by 11.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Mild, 74°F at kickoff; still at 2 mph out of the south-west; 0.22 in of precipitation; moderate drizzle.
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
Ravens 7 days · Jets 7 days
Coaches
John Harbaugh vs Robert Saleh
1st · 13:53NYJ +4% win prob(13:53) 7-B.Mann punts 45 yards to BAL 19, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 13-D.Duvernay pushed ob at BAL 28 for 9 yards (42-T.Hennessy).
2nd · 4:41NYJ +3% win prob(4:41) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep right to 10-D.Robinson. PENALTY on NYJ-29-L.Joyner, Defensive Pass Interference, 32 yards, enforced at BAL 38 - No Play.
