For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
Buffalo Bills 31, Rams 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 0:04, 3rd and 20, on Matt Gay — 16.0 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:04 · 3rd and 20
Matt Gay
Rams
(:04) 8-M.Gay 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.
Dome
Bills closed -1 and covered, winning by 21.
Buffalo Bills 31–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 0:04, Rams +16.0% win probability on one snap.
16.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Troy HillRamsQ2 2:00(2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 80-J.Crowder INTERCEPTED by 2-T.Hill at 50. 2-T.Hill to BUF 45 for 5 yards (80-J.Crowder).
15.8pts
Cooper KuppBillsQ2 0:26(:26) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 10-C.Kupp to BUF 39 for -1 yards (40-V.Miller).
10.0pts
What separated them
Third down
Bills won this one — 9 of 10 on third down, against Rams at 6 of 13 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.53 expected points per dropback, against Rams at -0.34 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.18 expected points per snap, against Rams at -0.27 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Rams owned this one and still lost it — -0.08 expected points per carry, against Bills at -0.53 expected points per carry.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Bills151 of 160 plays carry both curves
(:04) 8-M.Gay 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.
Swing +16.0 for RamsExpected points +1.23 for RamsThe model had Rams 17 points higher than the market did.play 80
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:04LA +16% win prob(:04) 8-M.Gay 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.
2nd · 2:00BUF +16% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 80-J.Crowder INTERCEPTED by 2-T.Hill at 50. 2-T.Hill to BUF 45 for 5 yards (80-J.Crowder).
2nd · 0:26BUF +10% win prob(:26) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 10-C.Kupp to BUF 39 for -1 yards (40-V.Miller).
2nd · 0:34BUF +9% win prob(:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at BUF 38 for -9 yards (sack split by 97-J.Phillips and 57-A.Epenesa).
4th · 15:00LA +9% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 13-G.Davis to LA 6 for 47 yards (22-D.Long).
3rd · 13:46BUF +8% win prob(13:46) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford to LA 11 for -6 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at LA 11. 9-M.Stafford sacked at LA 10 for -7 yards (50-G.Rousseau).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Isaiah McKenzie's 7-yard touchdown catch with 8:02 left in the 3rd put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Bills ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.53 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.18Bills: +0.18 expected points added per play
−0.27Rams: −0.27 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.53Bills: +0.53 expected points added per play
−0.34Rams: −0.34 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.53Bills: −0.53 expected points added per play
−0.08Rams: −0.08 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 57 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Rams’s 66 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Bills 5, Rams 2.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs -0.27.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
BUF's sack or hit rate, 30.6%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 4.8 points clear of the next team along.
2.8 times their own weekly swing above their number.
49 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
BUF's blitz rate sent, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 2.7 points clear of the next team along.
49 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 26 pts
off script — got home · +16.6 vs their 14.0%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+2.80× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Rams5.3%
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.8 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−1.02× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NoteBUF's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 30.6%, 16.6 points above their season mean of 14.0% and 2.8 times their own 5.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Allen pass−13% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 80-J.Crowder INTERCEPTED by 2-T.Hill at 50. 2-T.Hill to BUF 45 for 5 yards (80-J.Crowder).
Q2 2:00 · Bills · 1st & 10 at BUF 38 · gained nothing · -4.59 EP · −12.6% win probability
149 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 160 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps, manual charting on 136. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 94 yards from the BUF 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
160 of 160 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
160
EPA per play
-0.06
Success rate
43%
Yards
656
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR66-0.2773%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.4276%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR15-0.3527%
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Bills2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
160 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
160 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Bills6Rams0
Bills7Rams0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Rams 26
Punt11 plays, from the Rams 17 to the Bills 43
Intercepted8 plays, from the Bills 9 to the Rams 29
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter47 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Rams 31
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a run-pass option, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Bills 32 to the Bills 34
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
Bills10Rams0
Field goal8 plays, from the Bills 32 to the Rams 23
How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Bills10Rams6
Bills10Rams7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Rams 40 to the Bills 4
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 38
How the play was built
A run-pass option, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.1 seconds
Bills10Rams10
Field goal12 plays, from the Bills 45 to the Bills 29
3rd quarter34 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 11 to the Rams 17
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
Bills16Rams10
Bills17Rams10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bills 42 to the Rams 7
Punt8 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Bills 41
The period ended11 plays, from the Bills 11 to the Bills 44
4th quarter45 plays
Bills23Rams10
Bills24Rams10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bills 47 to the Rams 4
Intercepted6 plays, from the Rams 22 to the Rams 43
Bills30Rams10
Bills31Rams10
Touchdown4 plays, from the Bills 41 to the Bills 47
Intercepted9 plays, from the Rams 24 to the Rams 45
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Rams 37 to the Rams 20
Turnover on downs16 plays, from the Rams 18 to the Bills 12
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bills -1
Closing total
51.5
Bills moneyline
-117
Rams moneyline
+106
Bills closed -1 and covered, winning by 21.
Total closed 51.5; the game landed 41 — under by 10.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
Bills 7 days · Rams 7 days
Coaches
Sean McDermott vs Sean McVay
3rd · 10:34
LA +8% win prob
(10:34) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles up the middle pushed ob at LA 35 for 8 yards (33-N.Scott).
2nd · 1:45LA +7% win prob(1:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep left to 10-C.Kupp. PENALTY on BUF-7-T.Johnson, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 45 - No Play.
