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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:43 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 1 · Thu, Sep 8, 2022 · SoFi Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 1
It turned at Q2 0:04, 3rd and 20, on Matt Gay — 16.0 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Buffalo Bills 31–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 0:04, Rams +16.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:04 · 3rd and 20
Matt Gay
Rams
(:04) 8-M.Gay 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.
16.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Bills won this one — 9 of 10 on third down, against Rams at 6 of 13 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.53 expected points per dropback, against Rams at -0.34 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.18 expected points per snap, against Rams at -0.27 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Rams owned this one and still lost it — -0.08 expected points per carry, against Bills at -0.53 expected points per carry.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 6.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
(:04) 8-M.Gay 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Isaiah McKenzie's 7-yard touchdown catch with 8:02 left in the 3rd put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Isaiah McKenzie7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Josh AllenLead never changed again+717–107 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Billscategory by categoryRams
Bills ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.53 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 57 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Rams’s 66 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Bills 5, Rams 2.
Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs -0.27.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
BUF's sack or hit rate, 30.6%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 4.8 points clear of the next team along.
49 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points. · +2.8σ from their own normal
BUF's blitz rate sent, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 2.7 points clear of the next team along.
49 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.9 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 26 pts
Over Expected room →Bills10.0 ptsright on their number · +3.8 vs their 6.1 pts, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.49× that swing) · 57 snaps
Rams-0.1 ptsright on their number · +3.3 vs their -3.4 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+0.49× that swing) · 66 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 31% to 86%
Tendencies room →Bills59.6%right on their number · −1.0 vs their 60.6%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (−0.10× that swing) · 47 early downs
Rams68.0%leaned — passed early · +11.0 vs their 57.0%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (+1.10× that swing) · 50 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 60%
Tendencies room →Bills15.8%right on their number · −4.1 vs their 19.8%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.49× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Rams10.2%leaned — dropped back clean · −18.3 vs their 28.5%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (−1.48× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -55% to 174%
Fourth Down room →Bills—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 61.7%.
Rams66.7%inside their normal wobble · +28.8 vs their 37.8%, and they swing ±35.2 week to week (+0.82× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15% to 58%
Tendencies room →Bills0.0%leaned — sat back · −16.4 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±11.9 week to week (−1.38× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Rams21.1%inside their normal wobble · −7.3 vs their 28.3%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (−0.65× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 36%
Tendencies room →Bills30.6%off script — got home · +16.6 vs their 14.0%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+2.80× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Rams5.3%leaned — stayed blocked · −8.8 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−1.02× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
BUF's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 30.6%, 16.6 points above their season mean of 14.0% and 2.8 times their own 5.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · BUF
26/31, 297 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
13.6 expected points added · +11.3% completion over expected
Passing · LA
29/41, 240 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT
-16.7 expected points added · -0.6% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Gabe Davis banked 7.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenQB · Starter QB | 31.5 | +4.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 26/31, 297 yd, 3 TD, 2 INT · 10 car, 56 yd, 1 TD |
| Stefon DiggsWR · Alpha Receiver | 26.2 | +6.8 | 64% | 79% | 29% | 44% | 8/9, 122 yd, 1 TD |
| Gabe DavisWR | 18.8 | +7.5 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Isaiah McKenzieWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.9 | +2.6 | 44% | 55% | 10% | 10% | 2/3, 19 yd, 1 TD |
| Devin SingletaryRB | 8.2 | +0.9 | 59% | 61% | 6% | 0% | 8 car, 48 yd · 2/2, 14 yd |
| Zack MossRB · Committee Back | 7.6 | −5.1 | 37% | 39% | 19% | 0% | 6 car, 15 yd · 6/6, 21 yd |
| Jamison CrowderWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.8 | −1.0 | 31% | 32% | 13% | 11% | 3/4, 28 yd |
| Dawson KnoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −1.9 | 86% | 84% | 6% | 1% | 1/2, 5 yd |
| Taiwan JonesRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| James CookRB | -1.8 | −2.3 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 80-J.Crowder INTERCEPTED by 2-T.Hill at 50. 2-T.Hill to BUF 45 for 5 yards (80-J.Crowder).
Q2 2:00 · Bills · 1st & 10 at BUF 38 · gained nothing · -4.59 EP · −12.6% win probability
149 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 160 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps, manual charting on 136. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 94 yards from the BUF 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
160 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
160 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Bills6
Rams0Bills7Rams0How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a run-pass option, a man in motion.
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Bills10Rams0How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Bills10Rams6Bills10Rams7How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the ball was not catchable.
How the play was built
A run-pass option, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Bills10Rams10How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Bills16Rams10Bills17Rams10Bills23Rams10Bills24Rams10Bills30Rams10Bills31Rams10Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Bills at Rams, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 26/31 | 297 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +13.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 10 | 56 | 5.6 | 1 | +5.9 |
| Devin Singletary | 8 | 48 | 6.0 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Zack Moss |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 8 | 9 | 122 | 1 | 29% | +10.8 |
| Gabe Davis | 4 | 5 | 88 | 1 | 16% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tremaine Edmunds | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taron Johnson | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Matt Milano |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 29/41 | 240 | 1 | 3 | 7 | −16.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_01_BUF_LA
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -1 and covered, winning by 21.
Total closed 51.5; the game landed 41 — under by 10.5.
Conditions and crew
| 6 |
| 15 |
| 2.5 |
| 0 |
| −5.7 |
| James Cook | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −4.8 |
| +7.4 |
| Jamison Crowder | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 13% | −0.8 |
| Zack Moss | 6 | 6 | 21 | 0 | 19% | −1.0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 2 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 10% | −2.8 |
| Devin Singletary | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 6% | +1.1 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 6% | +0.8 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Dane Jackson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Gregory Rousseau | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Micah Hyde | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Phillips | 2 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Kaiir Elam | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Benford | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Von Miller | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 13 | 47 | 3.6 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Cam Akers | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 13 | 15 | 128 | 1 | 37% | +7.2 |
| Tyler Higbee | 5 | 11 | 39 | 0 | 27% | −9.2 |
| Darrell Henderson | 5 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 12% | −1.3 |
| Ben Skowronek | 4 | 6 | 25 | 0 | 15% | −0.0 |
| Allen Robinson | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 5% | −2.1 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 2% | +0.8 |
| Tutu Atwell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Hill | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Nick Scott | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bobby Wagner | 5 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ernest Jones | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Ramsey | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A'Shawn Robinson | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Long | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonard Floyd | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Hollins | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrell Lewis | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
