2022 Week 1 · Thu, Sep 8, 2022 · SoFi Stadium

Buffalo BillsWinner

Los Angeles Rams

BUF -1 ✓U 51.5 ✓DomeBills closed -1 and covered, winning by 21.

Buffalo Bills 31–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 0:04, LA +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:04BUF 10 — LA 10LA ball · 3rd & 20BUF 70%

(:04) 8-M.Gay 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:04LA +16% win prob(:04) 8-M.Gay 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.
Q2 · 2:00BUF +16% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 80-J.Crowder INTERCEPTED by 2-T.Hill at 50. 2-T.Hill to BUF 45 for 5 yards (80-J.Crowder).
Q2 · 0:26BUF +10% win prob(:26) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 10-C.Kupp to BUF 39 for -1 yards (40-V.Miller).
Q2 · 0:34BUF +9% win prob(:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at BUF 38 for -9 yards (sack split by 97-J.Phillips and 57-A.Epenesa).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 10:03BUF Touchdown
(10:03) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 13-G.Davis for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 7 — LA 0
Q2 · 8:51BUF Field goal
(8:51) 2-T.Bass 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: BUF 10 — LA 0
Q2 · 3:05LA Touchdown
(3:05) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 10-C.Kupp for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 10 — LA 7
Q2 · 0:04LA Field goal
(:04) 8-M.Gay 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: BUF 10 — LA 10
Q3 · 8:02BUF Touchdown
(8:02) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 6-I.McKenzie for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 17 — LA 10
Q4 · 13:34BUF Touchdown
(13:34) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 24 — LA 10
Q4 · 9:33BUF Touchdown
(9:33) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 14-S.Diggs for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 31 — LA 10

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Rams
Offensive plays	57	66
Total yards	414 (edge)	243
Yards per play	7.3 (edge)	3.7
Expected points added / play	0.18 (edge)	-0.27
Success rate	53% (edge)	39%
Dropback rate	67%	74%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.53 (edge)	-0.34
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.53	-0.08 (edge)
Third downs	9/10 (edge)	6/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	7
Turnovers	4	3 (edge)

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs -0.27.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

26/31, 297 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

13.6 expected points added · +11.3% completion over expected

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

29/41, 240 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT

-16.7 expected points added · -0.6% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

10 att, 56 yds, 1 TD

5.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Devin SingletaryRB

8 att, 48 yds, 0 TD

1.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Cooper KuppWR

13/15 for 128 yds, 1 TD

37% of team targets · 7.2 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Stefon DiggsWR

8/9 for 122 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 10.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BUF	BUF 25	11	75	5:04	Touchdown +7
2	LA	LA 17	10	43	4:50	Punt
3	BUF	BUF 9	8	47	4:27	Interception
4	LA	LA 24	4	7	1:31	Punt
5	BUF	BUF 32	2	4	0:44	Fumble
6	LA	BUF 36	2	0	0:29	Interception
7	BUF	BUF 32	8	45	4:07	Field goal +3
8	LA	LA 40	13	55	5:48	Touchdown +7
9	BUF	BUF 25	5	8	1:07	Interception
10	LA	BUF 45	8	1	1:53	Field goal +3
11	LA	LA 11	5	-1	1:58	Punt
12	BUF	BUF 42	9	63	5:03	Touchdown +7
13	LA	LA 25	8	25	2:48	Punt
14	BUF	BUF 11	14	94	6:44	Touchdown +7
15	LA	LA 22	6	21	2:26	Interception
16	BUF	BUF 41	4	59	1:36	Touchdown +7
17	LA	LA 24	8	26	2:27	Interception
18	BUF	LA 37	3	19	1:41	Fumble
19	LA	LA 18	14	66	4:36	Turnover on downs
20	BUF	BUF 16	1	0	0:41	End of game

7 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 94 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	26/31	297	3	2	2	13.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Josh Allen	10	56	5.6	1	5.9
Devin Singletary	8	48	6.0	0	1.0
Zack Moss	6	15	2.5	0	-5.7
James Cook	1	2	2.0	0	-4.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Stefon Diggs	8	9	122	1	29%	10.8
Gabe Davis	4	5	88	1	16%	7.4
Jamison Crowder	3	4	28	0	13%	-0.8
Zack Moss	6	6	21	0	19%	-1.0
Isaiah McKenzie	2	3	19	1	10%	-2.8
Devin Singletary	2	2	14	0	6%	1.1
Dawson Knox	1	2	5	0	6%	0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Tremaine Edmunds	6	3	0.0	0	0
Taron Johnson	5	4	0.0	0	1
Matt Milano	4	2	0.0	0	0
Dane Jackson	3	1	0.0	1	1
Gregory Rousseau	4	0	1.0	0	1
Micah Hyde	1	3	0.0	0	0
Jordan Phillips	2	2	1.5	0	0
Kaiir Elam	3	0	0.0	0	0
Christian Benford	1	2	0.0	0	1
Von Miller	3	0	2.0	0	0

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	29/41	240	1	3	7	-16.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Darrell Henderson	13	47	3.6	-0.4
Brandon Powell	1	3	3.0	0.5
Matthew Stafford	1	2	2.0	0.2
Cam Akers	3	0	0.0	-1.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cooper Kupp	13	15	128	1	37%	7.2
Tyler Higbee	5	11	39	0	27%	-9.2
Darrell Henderson	5	5	26	0	12%	-1.3
Ben Skowronek	4	6	25	0	15%	-0.0
Allen Robinson	1	2	12	0	5%	-2.1
Brandon Powell	1	1	10	0	2%	0.8
Tutu Atwell	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Troy Hill	6	2	0.0	1	1
Nick Scott	3	4	0.0	0	1
Bobby Wagner	5	2	1.0	0	0
Ernest Jones	4	2	0.0	0	0
Jalen Ramsey	5	0	0.0	0	0
A'Shawn Robinson	1	3	0.0	0	0
David Long	3	0	0.0	0	0
Leonard Floyd	1	1	0.0	0	0
Justin Hollins	2	0	0.0	0	0
Terrell Lewis	2	0	0.0	1	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -1
Closing total: 51.5
BUF moneyline: -117
LA moneyline: +106

Bills closed -1 and covered, winning by 21.

Total closed 51.5; the game landed 41 — under by 10.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: BUF 7 days · LA 7 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Sean McVay