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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:41 AM ET · 16 to play
2022 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 11, 2022 · Bank of America Stadium
Final
BrownsCleveland26
BY 2final margin
PanthersCarolina24
Cleveland Browns 26 at Carolina Panthers 24. Final.
Panthers -2.5 upset
The verdict · 2022 Week 1
Cleveland Browns 26, Panthers 24 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:13, 4th and 1, on Cade York — 33.9 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:13 · 4th and 1
Cade York
Browns
(:13) 3-C.York 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
O 42.5 ✓
Panthers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Cleveland Browns 26–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:13, Browns +33.9% win probability on one snap.
33.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Christian McCaffreyPanthersQ4 1:36(1:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 22-C.McCaffrey to CLE 29 for 21 yards (43-J.Johnson). PENALTY on CLE-43-J.Johnson, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 29.
22.6pts
Christian McCaffreyBrownsQ4 0:08(:08) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 22-C.McCaffrey to CAR 26 for 1 yard. Lateral to 2-D.Moore to CAR 22 for -4 yards (95-M.Garrett).
24.8pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Browns won this one — +0.26 expected points per carry, against Panthers at -0.01 expected points per carry.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Browns won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Panthers at 4 chunk plays.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Browns at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Browns won this one — 42% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Panthers at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 12 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Browns171 of 184 plays carry both curves
(:13) 3-C.York 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Swing −33.9 for PanthersExpected points −1.80 for PanthersThe model had Panthers 3 points higher than the market did.play 181
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:13CAR +34% win prob(:13) 3-C.York 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
4th · 0:08CLE +25% win prob(:08) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 22-C.McCaffrey to CAR 26 for 1 yard. Lateral to 2-D.Moore to CAR 22 for -4 yards (95-M.Garrett).
4th · 1:36CAR +23% win prob(1:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 22-C.McCaffrey to CLE 29 for 21 yards (43-J.Johnson). PENALTY on CLE-43-J.Johnson, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 29.
4th · 6:13CAR +18% win prob(6:13) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 3-R.Anderson for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:29CAR +14% win prob(:29) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 2-A.Cooper to CAR 40 for 9 yards (24-C.Henderson).
2nd · 3:33CAR +12% win prob(3:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 80-I.Thomas to CLE 2 for 50 yards (43-J.Johnson).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cade York's 58-yard field goal with 0:13 left in the 4th put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th1:17Eddy Pineiro·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.Jansen+323–24
4th0:13Cade York·58-yd field goal58-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap C.HughlettLead never changed again+326–24
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Brownscategory by categoryPanthers
Browns7–2Panthers
355Total yards262
4.9Yards per play5.3
42%Success rate35%
47%Third-down rate36%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
7Explosive plays4
18First downs11
1Sacks taken4
0Turnovers1
The read
Browns ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.02Browns: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.02Panthers: +0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.23Browns: −0.23 expected points added per play
+0.03Panthers: +0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.26Browns: +0.26 expected points added per play
−0.01Panthers: −0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 72 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against Panthers’s 49 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Browns 5, Panthers 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 19 pts
right on their number · +1.2 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Panthers13.9%
right on their number · −0.3 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.04× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
NoteCLE's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 37.5%, 13.8 points above their season mean of 23.7% and 1.1 times their own 12.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Cade York+39% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:13) 3-C.York 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Q4 0:13 · Browns · 4th & 1 at CAR 40 · gained nothing · +1.80 EP · +38.5% win probability
169 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 184 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 184 snaps, manual charting on 151. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 78 yards from the CLE 22 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
184 of 184 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
184
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
39%
Yards
616
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.0966%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.2555%
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR12-0.2225%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.1455%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.3955%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.0817%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.2140%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Browns2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Browns2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
184 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Browns 35 to the Panthers 36
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 36 to the Panthers 40
Punt11 plays, from the Browns 35 to the Panthers 41
Drive ended8 plays, from the Panthers 5 to the Panthers 23
2nd quarter57 plays
Punt1 play
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 44 to the Browns 46
Intercepted5 plays, from the Panthers 8 to the Panthers 20
Browns6Panthers0
Browns7Panthers0
Touchdown5 plays, from the Panthers 42 to the Panthers 1
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 28
Browns13Panthers0
Browns14Panthers0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Browns 22 to the Panthers 24
Browns14Panthers6
Browns14Panthers7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Browns 1
Browns17Panthers7
Field goal13 plays, from the Browns 40 to the Panthers 8
The period ended6 plays
3rd quarter34 plays
Browns20Panthers7
Field goal15 plays, from the Browns 26 to the Panthers 11
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 18 to the Panthers 32
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 33 to the Browns 41
The period ended7 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Browns 36
4th quarter54 plays
Browns20Panthers13
Browns20Panthers14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Browns 33 to the Browns 7
Browns23Panthers14
Field goal11 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Panthers 17
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
Browns23Panthers20
Browns23Panthers21
Touchdown3 plays
Punt13 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 44
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.7 seconds
Browns23Panthers24
Field goal9 plays, from the Panthers 20 to the Browns 14
The period ended1 play
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Browns26Panthers24
Field goal7 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Panthers 40
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Panthers -2.5
Closing total
42.5
Browns moneyline
+114
Panthers moneyline
-125
Panthers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 50 — over by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 81°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 6 mph out of the south-west; light drizzle.
Referee
Brad Rogers
Rest
Browns 7 days · Panthers 7 days
Coaches
Kevin Stefanski vs Matt Rhule
2nd · 1:17
CAR +10% win prob
(1:17) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 27-K.Hunt to CAR 39 for 24 yards (95-D.Brown). PENALTY on CAR-25-X.Woods, Low Block, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 39.
2nd · 11:02CAR +10% win prob(11:02) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep left intended for 2-A.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Woods [53-B.Burns] at CAR 0. 25-X.Woods to CAR 31 for 31 yards (88-H.Bryant). PENALTY on CAR-24-C.Henderson, Defensive Pass Interference, 34 yards, enforced at CAR 35 - No Play.
