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2022 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 11, 2022 · Bank of America Stadium

Cleveland BrownsWinner

26

Carolina Panthers

24

CAR -2.5 upsetO 42.5 ✓

Cleveland Browns 26–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:13, CAR +34% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CAR ↑CLE ↓
Q4 · 0:13CLE 26 — CAR 24CLE ball · 4th & 1CAR 59%

(:13) 3-C.York 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:13CAR +34% win prob(:13) 3-C.York 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
  2. Q4 · 0:08CLE +25% win prob(:08) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 22-C.McCaffrey to CAR 26 for 1 yard. Lateral to 2-D.Moore to CAR 22 for -4 yards (95-M.Garrett).
  3. Q4 · 1:36CAR +23% win prob(1:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 22-C.McCaffrey to CLE 29 for 21 yards (43-J.Johnson). PENALTY on CLE-43-J.Johnson, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 29.
  4. Q4 · 6:13CAR +18% win prob(6:13) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 3-R.Anderson for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q2 · 10:53CLE Touchdown

    (10:53) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 27-K.Hunt for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CLE 7 — CAR 0
  2. Q2 · 4:52CLE Touchdown

    (4:52) 27-K.Hunt up the middle for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CLE 14 — CAR 0
  3. Q2 · 2:00CAR Touchdown

    (2:00) 22-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CLE 14 — CAR 7
  4. Q2 · 0:24CLE Field goal

    (:24) 3-C.York 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

    Score after this play: CLE 17 — CAR 7
  5. Q3 · 7:46CLE Field goal

    (7:46) 3-C.York 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

    Score after this play: CLE 20 — CAR 7
  6. Q4 · 12:58CAR Touchdown

    (12:58) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CLE 20 — CAR 14
  7. Q4 · 6:17CLE Field goal

    (6:17) 3-C.York 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

    Score after this play: CLE 23 — CAR 14
  8. Q4 · 6:13CAR Touchdown

    (6:13) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 3-R.Anderson for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CLE 23 — CAR 21
  9. Q4 · 1:17CAR Field goal

    (1:17) 4-E.Pineiro 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

    Score after this play: CLE 23 — CAR 24
  10. Q4 · 0:13CLE Field goal

    (:13) 3-C.York 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

    Score after this play: CLE 26 — CAR 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBrownsPanthers
Offensive plays7249
Total yards355 (edge)262
Yards per play4.95.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.020.02 (edge)
Success rate42% (edge)35%
Dropback rate50%65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.230.03 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.26 (edge)-0.01
Third downs8/17 (edge)4/11
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)7 (edge)4
First downs gained on snaps18 (edge)11
Sacks taken1 (edge)4
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CAR

Baker MayfieldQB

16/27, 235 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-1.6 expected points added · -9.2% completion over expected

Passing · CLE

Jacoby BrissettQB

18/34, 147 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-7.3 expected points added · -2.9% completion over expected

Rushing · CLE

Nick ChubbRB

22 att, 141 yds, 0 TD

4.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CLE

Kareem HuntRB

11 att, 46 yds, 1 TD

0.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

Robbie ChosenWR

5/8 for 102 yds, 1 TD

31% of team targets · 3.1 expected points added

Receiving · CLE

Donovan Peoples-JonesWR

6/11 for 60 yds, 0 TD

37% of team targets · -1.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CARCAR 225-11:31Punt
2CLECLE 358294:12Turnover on downs
3CARCAR 36472:32Punt
4CLECLE 359294:52Punt
5CARCAR 5602:01Punt
6CLECLE 44420:58Punt
7CARCAR 85121:28Interception
8CLECAR 42481:37Touchdown +7
9CARCAR 25531:30Punt
10CLECLE 229784:33Touchdown +7
11CARCAR 258752:49Touchdown +7
12CLECLE 4010421:36Field goal +3
13CARCAR 25300:21End of half
14CLECLE 2614637:18Field goal +3
15CARCAR 186-33:18Punt
16CLECLE 33481:49Punt
17CARCAR 2512474:44Touchdown +7
18CLECLE 2511576:38Field goal +3
19CARCAR 253750:11Touchdown +7
20CLECLE 259193:48Punt
21CARCAR 207501:01Field goal +3
22CLECLE 257201:05Field goal +3
23CARCAR 252-30:08End of game

10 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Browns gained 78 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cleveland Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jacoby Brissett18/34147101-7.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Nick Chubb221416.404.9
Kareem Hunt11464.210.8
Anthony Schwartz22010.001.1
Jacoby Brissett4102.501.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Donovan Peoples-Jones61160037%-1.8
Kareem Hunt4424113%1.8
Anthony Schwartz121907%1.3
Harrison Bryant2418013%0.9
Amari Cooper3617020%-4.7
David Njoku11703%-0.6
Nick Chubb11203%-0.7
Demetric Felton01003%-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
John Johnson430.500
Martin Emerson410.000
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah220.000
Myles Garrett402.001
Jacob Phillips120.000
Grant Delpit210.011
Jadeveon Clowney030.502
Anthony Walker210.000
Sione Takitaki200.000
Greg Newsome110.000

Carolina Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Baker Mayfield16/27235114-1.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Christian McCaffrey10333.310.9
D.J. Moore177.000.4
Baker Mayfield561.212.3
D'Onta Foreman252.50-0.6
Chuba Hubbard133.00-0.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Robbie Chosen58102131%3.1
Ian Thomas2353012%4.0
D.J. Moore3643023%0.8
Christian McCaffrey4524019%1.4
Shi Smith1312012%-2.5
Tommy Tremble11104%-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Xavier Woods280.001
Brian Burns430.000
Jeremy Chinn520.000
Shaq Thompson240.000
Frankie Luvu410.000
Derrick Brown140.000
Jaycee Horn410.000
Donte Jackson400.000
Damien Wilson221.000
Marquis Haynes120.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
CAR -2.5
Closing total
42.5
CLE moneyline
+114
CAR moneyline
-125

Panthers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 50 — over by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
—
Referee
Brad Rogers
Rest
CLE 7 days · CAR 7 days
Coaches
Kevin Stefanski vs Matt Rhule