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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
Seattle Seahawks 17, Broncos 16 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:20, 4th and 5, on Brandon McManus — 38.6 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:20 · 4th and 5
Brandon McManus
Seahawks
(:20) 8-B.McManus 64 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.
Broncos closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Seattle Seahawks 17–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:20, Seahawks +38.6% win probability on one snap.
38.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
DK MetcalfBroncosQ3 5:41(5:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 14-D.Metcalf to SEA 47 for 1 yard (21-K.Williams, 5-R.Gregory). FUMBLES (5-R.Gregory), RECOVERED by DEN-31-J.Simmons at SEA 49. 31-J.Simmons pushed ob at SEA 32 for 17 yards (7-G.Smith).
21.8pts
Javonte WilliamsSeahawksQ3 3:08(3:08) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams up the middle to SEA 3 for -2 yards (10-U.Nwosu). FUMBLES (10-U.Nwosu), RECOVERED by SEA-30-M.Jackson at SEA -1. Touchback.
23.5pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Seahawks won this one — -0.16 expected points per carry, against Broncos at -0.49 expected points per carry.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Seahawks at 5 chunk plays.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Seahawks at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Seahawks won this one — 1 giveaway, against Broncos at 2 giveaways.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 19.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 34 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on Broncos148 of 160 plays carry both curves
(:20) 8-B.McManus 64 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.
Swing +38.6 for SeahawksExpected points +1.25 for SeahawksThe model had Seahawks 17 points higher than the market did.play 154
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:20DEN +39% win prob(:20) 8-B.McManus 64 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.
3rd · 3:08DEN +24% win prob(3:08) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams up the middle to SEA 3 for -2 yards (10-U.Nwosu). FUMBLES (10-U.Nwosu), RECOVERED by SEA-30-M.Jackson at SEA -1. Touchback.
3rd · 5:41DEN +22% win prob(5:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 14-D.Metcalf to SEA 47 for 1 yard (21-K.Williams, 5-R.Gregory). FUMBLES (5-R.Gregory), RECOVERED by DEN-31-J.Simmons at SEA 49. 31-J.Simmons pushed ob at SEA 32 for 17 yards (7-G.Smith).
2nd · 5:46SEA +16% win prob(5:46) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 10-J.Jeudy for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 4:54DEN +15% win prob(4:54) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at SEA 24 for -10 yards (55-B.Chubb).
2nd · 2:31SEA +12% win prob(2:31) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 84-C.Parkinson for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Colby Parkinson's 25-yard touchdown catch with 2:31 left in the 2nd put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
2nd0:04Brandon McManus·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder C.Waitman · snap J.Bobenmoyer+313–17
4th6:16Brandon McManus·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder C.Waitman · snap J.Bobenmoyer+316–17
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Broncoscategory by categorySeahawks
Broncos5–2Seahawks
433Total yards256
6.8Yards per play5.6
48%Success rate41%
53%Third-down rate60%
0Red-zone touchdowns0
8Explosive plays5
18First downs12
2Sacks taken2
2Turnovers1
The read
Broncos ahead 5–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Seahawks, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.49 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.08Broncos: +0.08 expected points added per play
+0.02Seahawks: +0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.33Broncos: +0.33 expected points added per play
+0.11Seahawks: +0.11 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.49Broncos: −0.49 expected points added per play
−0.16Seahawks: −0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 64 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 46 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 5, Seahawks 3.
NoteBroncos outgained Seahawks 433-256 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 21 pts
right on their number · +0.8 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.14× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Seahawks17.8%
right on their number · +1.9 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.29× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was DEN's pass rate over expected, 2.8 pts against a season mean of -2.5 pts — and DEN swings 5.4 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
72Garett BollesT · Every snap100%66 snaps
66Dalton RisnerG · Every snap100%66 snaps
73Cameron FlemingT · Every snap100%66 snaps
3Russell WilsonQB · Every snap100%66 snaps
79Lloyd CushenberryC · Every snap100%66 snaps
14Courtland SuttonWR · Full-time95%63 snaps
10Jerry JeudyWR · Full-time89%59 snaps
61Graham GlasgowG · Heavy rotation73%48 snaps
85Albert OkwuegbunamTE · Heavy rotation67%44 snaps
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Williams up−26% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(3:08) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams up the middle to SEA 3 for -2 yards (10-U.Nwosu). FUMBLES (10-U.Nwosu), RECOVERED by SEA-30-M.Jackson at SEA -1. Touchback.
Q3 3:08 · Broncos · 3rd & goal at SEA 1 · gained nothing · -6.59 EP · −26.2% win probability
146 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 160 plays across 16 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps, manual charting on 135. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 16 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 78 yards from the DEN 20 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
160 of 160 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
160
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
43%
Yards
686
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.0680%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23+0.1278%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.0439%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.0950%
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7+0.0057%
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
160 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
160 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Broncos0Seahawks6
Broncos0Seahawks7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Broncos 38
Broncos3Seahawks7
Field goal11 plays, from the Broncos 11 to the Seahawks 12
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Seahawks 21 to the Broncos 7
The period ended6 plays, from the Broncos 7 to the Broncos 47
2nd quarter44 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 42 to the Broncos 45
Broncos3Seahawks10
Field goal11 plays, from the Seahawks 19 to the Broncos 19
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Broncos9Seahawks10
Broncos10Seahawks10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 33
Broncos10Seahawks16
Broncos10Seahawks17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Broncos 25
Broncos13Seahawks17
Field goal14 plays, from the Broncos 21 to the Seahawks 22
3rd quarter35 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost14 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Seahawks 1
How the play was built
A screen, a run-pass option, no huddle, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.4 seconds
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Seahawks 10 to the Seahawks 46
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Seahawks 32 to the Seahawks 1
The period ended7 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Seahawks 35
4th quarter45 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 39 to the Seahawks 44
Broncos16Seahawks17
Field goal16 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Seahawks 3
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Seahawks 34
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
No good13 plays, from the Broncos 22 to the Seahawks 46
The period ended6 plays, from the Broncos 47 to the Broncos 46
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Broncos -6
Closing total
44
Broncos moneyline
-253
Seahawks moneyline
+221
Broncos closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44; the game landed 33 — under by 11.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lumen Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Mild, 72°F at kickoff; still at 2 mph out of the south-west; clear.
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
Broncos 7 days · Seahawks 7 days
Coaches
Nathaniel Hackett vs Pete Carroll
3rd · 7:42DEN +12% win prob(7:42) (Shotgun) 25-M.Gordon right tackle to SEA 1 for no gain (6-Q.Diggs, 10-U.Nwosu). FUMBLES (6-Q.Diggs), RECOVERED by SEA-30-M.Jackson at SEA 2. 30-M.Jackson to SEA 10 for 8 yards (14-C.Sutton). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
2nd · 0:48SEA +11% win prob(:48) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 14-C.Sutton pushed ob at SEA 24 for 30 yards (56-J.Brooks).
