2022 Week 1 · Mon, Sep 12, 2022 · Lumen Field

Denver Broncos

Seattle SeahawksWinner

DEN -6 upsetU 44 ✓Broncos closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Seattle Seahawks 17–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:20, DEN +39% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:20DEN 16 — SEA 17DEN ball · 4th & 5DEN 51%

(:20) 8-B.McManus 64 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:20DEN +39% win prob(:20) 8-B.McManus 64 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.
Q3 · 3:08DEN +24% win prob(3:08) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams up the middle to SEA 3 for -2 yards (10-U.Nwosu). FUMBLES (10-U.Nwosu), RECOVERED by SEA-30-M.Jackson at SEA -1. Touchback.
Q3 · 5:41DEN +22% win prob(5:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 14-D.Metcalf to SEA 47 for 1 yard (21-K.Williams, 5-R.Gregory). FUMBLES (5-R.Gregory), RECOVERED by DEN-31-J.Simmons at SEA 49. 31-J.Simmons pushed ob at SEA 32 for 17 yards (7-G.Smith).
Q2 · 5:46SEA +16% win prob(5:46) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 10-J.Jeudy for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 11:37SEA Touchdown
(11:37) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 89-W.Dissly for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 0 — SEA 7
Q1 · 6:59DEN Field goal
(6:59) 8-B.McManus 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.
Score after this play: DEN 3 — SEA 7
Q2 · 7:25SEA Field goal
(7:25) 5-J.Myers 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Score after this play: DEN 3 — SEA 10
Q2 · 5:46DEN Touchdown
(5:46) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 10-J.Jeudy for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 10 — SEA 10
Q2 · 2:31SEA Touchdown
(2:31) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 84-C.Parkinson for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 10 — SEA 17
Q2 · 0:04DEN Field goal
(:04) 8-B.McManus 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.
Score after this play: DEN 13 — SEA 17
Q4 · 6:16DEN Field goal
(6:16) 8-B.McManus 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.
Score after this play: DEN 16 — SEA 17

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Broncos	Seahawks
Offensive plays	64	46
Total yards	433 (edge)	256
Yards per play	6.8 (edge)	5.6
Expected points added / play	0.08 (edge)	0.02
Success rate	48% (edge)	41%
Dropback rate	70%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.33 (edge)	0.11
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.49	-0.16 (edge)
Third downs	8/15	6/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	18 (edge)	12
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Broncos outgained Seahawks 433–256 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Russell WilsonQB

29/42, 340 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

15.2 expected points added · +7.8% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Geno SmithQB

23/28, 195 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

8.3 expected points added · +12.4% completion over expected

Rushing · SEA

Rashaad PennyRB

12 att, 60 yds, 0 TD

0.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

Melvin GordonRB

12 att, 58 yds, 0 TD

-4.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Jerry JeudyWR

4/7 for 102 yds, 1 TD

17% of team targets · 7.2 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Courtland SuttonWR

4/7 for 72 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 5.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SEA	SEA 30	8	75	3:34	Touchdown +7
2	DEN	DEN 11	10	82	4:31	Field goal +3
3	SEA	SEA 21	8	36	4:00	Turnover on downs
4	DEN	DEN 7	8	43	4:41	Punt
5	SEA	SEA 19	9	38	5:54	Field goal +3
6	DEN	DEN 25	5	75	1:46	Touchdown +7
7	SEA	SEA 25	9	70	3:10	Touchdown +7
8	DEN	DEN 21	10	57	2:24	Field goal +3
9	DEN	DEN 20	11	57	7:27	Fumble
10	SEA	SEA 10	6	17	2:02	Fumble
11	DEN	SEA 32	5	10	2:26	Fumble
12	SEA	SEA 20	10	26	5:15	Punt
13	DEN	DEN 20	15	77	6:37	Field goal +3
14	SEA	SEA 30	5	-6	2:11	Punt
15	DEN	DEN 22	10	32	3:47	Missed field goal
16	SEA	DEN 46	3	0	0:15	End of game

7 of 16 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 82 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	29/42	340	1	0	2	15.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Melvin Gordon	12	58	4.8	-4.2
Javonte Williams	7	43	6.1	-5.2
Russell Wilson	1	2	2.0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jerry Jeudy	4	7	102	1	17%	7.2
Courtland Sutton	4	7	72	0	17%	5.7
Javonte Williams	11	12	65	0	29%	1.2
Andrew Beck	2	3	52	0	7%	3.4
Albert Okwuegbunam	5	6	33	0	15%	1.5
Melvin Gordon	2	2	14	0	5%	0.0
Mike Boone	1	1	2	0	2%	-0.4
Eric Saubert	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.4
K.J. Hamler	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.6
Eric Tomlinson	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Justin Simmons	2	7	0.0	0
Alex Singleton	2	5	0.0	0
Ronald Darby	4	1	0.0	1
D.J. Jones	3	1	0.0	1
Bradley Chubb	2	1	2.0	0
Jonas Griffith	3	0	0.0	0
Patrick Surtain	2	1	0.0	0
Kareem Jackson	2	1	0.0	0
Caden Sterns	1	1	0.0	0
Courtland Sutton	1	0	0.0	0

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Geno Smith	23/28	195	2	0	2	8.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Rashaad Penny	12	60	5.0	0.8
Geno Smith	6	14	2.3	-2.9
Travis Homer	1	2	2.0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Colby Parkinson	2	2	43	1	7%	4.6
Will Dissly	3	3	43	1	11%	3.1
DK Metcalf	7	7	36	0	26%	-4.7
Tyler Lockett	3	4	28	0	15%	2.7
Marquise Goodwin	2	2	22	0	7%	1.2
Noah Fant	3	4	16	0	15%	-0.8
Rashaad Penny	2	3	7	0	11%	0.0
D'Wayne Eskridge	1	2	0	0	7%	0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Cody Barton	8	2	1.0	0
Jordyn Brooks	8	2	0.0	0
Josh Jones	4	3	0.0	0
Uchenna Nwosu	2	4	1.0	1
Michael Jackson	4	0	0.0	1
Quandre Diggs	2	2	0.0	0
Justin Coleman	2	2	0.0	0
Jamal Adams	3	0	0.0	1
Tanner Muse	2	0	0.0	0
Quinton Jefferson	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DEN -6
Closing total: 44
DEN moneyline: -253
SEA moneyline: +221

Broncos closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44; the game landed 33 — under by 11.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lumen Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: DEN 7 days · SEA 7 days
Coaches: Nathaniel Hackett vs Pete Carroll