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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:41 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 1 · Mon, Sep 12, 2022 · Lumen Field
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 1
It turned at Q4 0:20, 4th and 5, on Brandon McManus — 38.6 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Seattle Seahawks 17–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:20, Seahawks +38.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:20 · 4th and 5
Brandon McManus
Seahawks
(:20) 8-B.McManus 64 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.
38.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Seahawks won this one — -0.16 expected points per carry, against Broncos at -0.49 expected points per carry.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Seahawks at 5 chunk plays.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Seahawks at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Seahawks won this one — 1 giveaway, against Broncos at 2 giveaways.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 19.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 34 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
(:20) 8-B.McManus 64 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Colby Parkinson's 25-yard touchdown catch with 2:31 left in the 2nd put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Colby Parkinson25-yd TD catch25-yard touchdown catchfrom Geno SmithLead never changed again+710–177 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Broncoscategory by categorySeahawks
Broncos ahead 5–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Seahawks, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.49 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 64 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 46 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 5, Seahawks 3.
Broncos outgained Seahawks 433-256 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 21 pts
Over Expected room →Broncos2.8 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.3 vs their -2.5 pts, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (+0.99× that swing) · 64 snaps
Seahawks8.9 ptsinside their normal wobble · +6.9 vs their 2.0 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.92× that swing) · 46 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 32% to 88%
Tendencies room →Broncos64.6%inside their normal wobble · +8.5 vs their 56.1%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+0.92× that swing) · 48 early downs
Seahawks62.9%right on their number · +3.0 vs their 59.9%, and they swing ±11.1 week to week (+0.27× that swing) · 35 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 47%
Tendencies room →Broncos26.7%inside their normal wobble · +8.5 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (+0.78× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Seahawks29.0%inside their normal wobble · +5.1 vs their 23.9%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+0.58× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27% to 98%
Fourth Down room →Broncos33.3%right on their number · +7.2 vs their 26.1%, and they swing ±20.1 week to week (+0.36× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Seahawks—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 37.5%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -11% to 60%
Tendencies room →Broncos19.4%inside their normal wobble · −10.5 vs their 29.9%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−0.91× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Seahawks17.8%right on their number · −1.6 vs their 19.3%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (−0.14× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 33%
Tendencies room →Broncos12.9%right on their number · +0.8 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.14× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Seahawks17.8%right on their number · +1.9 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.29× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Nothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was DEN's pass rate over expected, 2.8 pts against a season mean of -2.5 pts — and DEN swings 5.4 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · DEN
29/42, 340 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
15.2 expected points added · +7.8% completion over expected
Passing · SEA
23/28, 195 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
8.3 expected points added · +12.4% completion over expected
Receiving · DEN
4/7 for 72 yds, 0 TD
17% of team targets · 5.7 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Will Dissly banked 9.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry JeudyWR · Rotational Receiver | 20.2 | +6.1 | 89% | 91% | 17% | 26% | 4/7, 102 yd, 1 TD |
| Javonte WilliamsRB · Committee Back | 19.8 | −5.8 | 58% | 67% | 29% | 0% | 7 car, 43 yd · 11/12, 65 yd |
| Russell WilsonQB · Starter QB | 17.8 | −6.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 29/42, 340 yd, 1 TD · 1 car, 2 yd |
| Geno SmithQB · Starter QB | 17.2 | +5.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/28, 195 yd, 2 TD · 6 car, 14 yd |
| Will DisslyTE · Rotational Receiver | 13.3 | +9.1 | 67% | 55% | 11% | 9% | 3/3, 43 yd, 1 TD |
| Colby ParkinsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 12.3 | +7.9 | 36% | 35% | 7% | 21% | 2/2, 43 yd, 1 TD |
| Courtland SuttonWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.2 | −2.2 | 95% | 98% | 17% | 44% | 4/7, 72 yd |
| Rashaad PennyRB · Bell Cow Back | 8.7 | −1.5 | 69% | 65% | 11% | 0% | 12 car, 60 yd · 2/3, 7 yd |
| DK MetcalfWR · Alpha Receiver | 8.6 | −2.5 | 82% | 94% | 26% | 23% | 7/7, 36 yd |
| Albert OkwuegbunamTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.3 | −0.7 | 67% | 78% | 15% | 3% | 5/6, 33 yd |
| Melvin GordonRB · Bell Cow Back | 7.2 | −6.2 | 41% | 31% | 5% | 3% | 12 car, 58 yd · 2/2, 14 yd |
| Andrew BeckRB | 7.2 | +2.0 | 15% | 9% | 7% | 8% | 2/3, 52 yd |
| Tyler LockettWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.8 | −0.3 | 80% | 87% | 15% | 21% | 3/4, 28 yd |
| Noah FantTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.6 | −2.7 | 56% | 58% | 15% | 11% | 3/4, 16 yd |
| Marquise GoodwinWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | +0.6 | 51% | 58% | 7% | 16% | 2/2, 22 yd |
| Mike BooneRB | 1.2 | −0.4 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| D'Wayne EskridgeWR | 1.0 | −1.8 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Travis HomerRB | 0.2 | −0.3 | 35% | 39% | 0% | — | 1 car, 2 yd |
| Eric SaubertTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.5 | 27% | 22% | 2% | 6% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Eric TomlinsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.7 | 30% | 24% | 2% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| K.J. HamlerWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 61% | 64% | 2% | 12% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Tyrie ClevelandWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 12% | 11% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Montrell WashingtonWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| DeeJay DallasRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(3:08) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams up the middle to SEA 3 for -2 yards (10-U.Nwosu). FUMBLES (10-U.Nwosu), RECOVERED by SEA-30-M.Jackson at SEA -1. Touchback.
Q3 3:08 · Broncos · 3rd & goal at SEA 1 · gained nothing · -6.59 EP · −26.2% win probability
146 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 160 plays across 16 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps, manual charting on 135. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 16 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 78 yards from the DEN 20 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
160 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
160 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Broncos0
Seahawks6Broncos0Seahawks7Broncos3Seahawks7Broncos3Seahawks10How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Broncos9Seahawks10Broncos10Seahawks10Broncos10Seahawks16Broncos10Seahawks17Broncos13Seahawks17How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
How the play was built
A screen, a run-pass option, no huddle, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Broncos16Seahawks17How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Broncos at Seahawks, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 29/42 | 340 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +15.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 12 | 58 | 4.8 | 0 | −4.2 |
| Javonte Williams | 7 | 43 | 6.1 | 0 | −5.2 |
| Russell Wilson |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 4 | 7 | 102 | 1 | 17% | +7.2 |
| Courtland Sutton | 4 | 7 | 72 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Simmons | 2 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Singleton | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronald Darby |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 23/28 | 195 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +8.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_01_DEN_SEA
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Broncos closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44; the game landed 33 — under by 11.0.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 2.0 |
| 0 |
| −0.4 |
| 17% |
| +5.7 |
| Javonte Williams | 11 | 12 | 65 | 0 | 29% | +1.2 |
| Andrew Beck | 2 | 3 | 52 | 0 | 7% | +3.4 |
| Albert Okwuegbunam | 5 | 6 | 33 | 0 | 15% | +1.5 |
| Melvin Gordon | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 5% | +0.0 |
| Mike Boone | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2% | −0.4 |
| Eric Saubert | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.4 |
| K.J. Hamler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.6 |
| Eric Tomlinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.4 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| D.J. Jones | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bradley Chubb | 2 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonas Griffith | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Surtain | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kareem Jackson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Caden Sterns | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashaad Penny | 12 | 60 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Geno Smith | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 | −2.9 |
| Travis Homer | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colby Parkinson | 2 | 2 | 43 | 1 | 7% | +4.6 |
| Will Dissly | 3 | 3 | 43 | 1 | 11% | +3.1 |
| DK Metcalf | 7 | 7 | 36 | 0 | 26% | −4.7 |
| Tyler Lockett | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 15% | +2.7 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 7% | +1.2 |
| Noah Fant | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 15% | −0.8 |
| Rashaad Penny | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 11% | +0.0 |
| D'Wayne Eskridge | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | +0.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Barton | 8 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordyn Brooks | 8 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Jones | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Uchenna Nwosu | 2 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Michael Jackson | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Quandre Diggs | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Coleman | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamal Adams | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tanner Muse | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinton Jefferson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
