2022 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 11, 2022 · U.S. Bank Stadium

Green Bay Packers

Minnesota VikingsWinner

MIN -2.5 ✓U 47 ✓DomeVikings closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 16.

Minnesota Vikings 23–7. Biggest swing: Q2 8:03, GB +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 8:03GB 0 — MIN 7GB ball · 4th & 1MIN 64%

(8:03) (Shotgun) 28-A.Dillon up the middle to MIN 1 for no gain (55-Z.Smith, 97-H.Phillips).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 8:03GB +10% win prob(8:03) (Shotgun) 28-A.Dillon up the middle to MIN 1 for no gain (55-Z.Smith, 97-H.Phillips).
Q2 · 5:54MIN +10% win prob(5:54) (No Huddle) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson pushed ob at GB 13 for 64 yards (26-D.Savage).
Q1 · 9:21MIN +8% win prob(9:21) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 12:56MIN +7% win prob(12:56) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 18-J.Jefferson to GB 41 for 20 yards (59-D.Campbell).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 9:21MIN Touchdown
(9:21) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: GB 0 — MIN 7
Q2 · 3:57MIN Field goal
(3:57) 1-G.Joseph 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
Score after this play: GB 0 — MIN 10
Q2 · 0:45MIN Touchdown
(:45) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: GB 0 — MIN 17
Q3 · 9:51MIN Field goal
(9:51) 1-G.Joseph 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
Score after this play: GB 0 — MIN 20
Q3 · 5:21GB Touchdown
(5:21) (Shotgun) 28-A.Dillon left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: GB 7 — MIN 20
Q4 · 6:52MIN Field goal
(6:52) 1-G.Joseph 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
Score after this play: GB 7 — MIN 23

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Packers	Vikings
Offensive plays	59	61
Total yards	339	395 (edge)
Yards per play	5.7	6.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.19	0.13 (edge)
Success rate	46% (edge)	43%
Dropback rate	71%	54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.28	0.28 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.04 (edge)	-0.05
Third downs	3/9 (edge)	4/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9	9
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	4	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.19.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

23/32, 277 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

9.3 expected points added · +5.2% completion over expected

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

22/34, 195 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-11.6 expected points added · -2.8% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Dalvin CookRB

20 att, 90 yds, 0 TD

-1.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · GB

Aaron JonesRB

5 att, 49 yds, 0 TD

2.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Justin JeffersonWR

9/11 for 184 yds, 2 TD

35% of team targets · 14.5 expected points added

Receiving · GB

A.J. DillonRB

5/6 for 46 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 2.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIN	MIN 22	12	78	5:43	Touchdown +7
2	GB	GB 25	7	13	1:49	Punt
3	MIN	MIN 15	4	-5	2:01	Punt
4	GB	GB 46	7	6	3:35	Punt
5	MIN	MIN 15	6	20	2:41	Punt
6	GB	GB 20	10	79	6:13	Turnover on downs
7	MIN	MIN 1	8	94	4:04	Field goal +3
8	GB	GB 25	5	3	0:56	Punt
9	MIN	MIN 26	8	74	2:23	Touchdown +7
10	GB	GB 25	2	0	0:08	Interception
11	MIN	MIN 30	4	1	0:21	Punt
12	GB	GB 16	1	0	0:06	End of half
13	GB	GB 18	6	15	2:54	Fumble
14	MIN	GB 33	4	5	2:20	Field goal +3
15	GB	GB 25	9	75	4:30	Touchdown +7
16	MIN	MIN 25	7	20	4:03	Punt
17	GB	GB 17	8	26	4:21	Punt
18	MIN	MIN 16	12	74	5:04	Field goal +3
19	GB	GB 25	12	57	3:03	Turnover on downs
20	MIN	MIN 18	8	34	2:43	Punt
21	GB	GB 8	5	65	1:02	End of game

6 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 94 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	22/34	195	0	1	4	-11.6
Jordan Love	4/5	65	0	0	0	-0.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Aaron Jones	5	49	9.8	0	2.6
A.J. Dillon	10	45	4.5	1	-2.9
Romeo Doubs	1	11	11.0	0	0.5
Christian Watson	1	7	7.0	0	0.5
Aaron Rodgers	1	-1	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
A.J. Dillon	5	6	46	17%	2.0
Romeo Doubs	4	5	37	14%	1.3
Robert Tonyan	3	5	36	14%	-2.5
Christian Watson	2	4	34	11%	-1.5
Josiah Deguara	2	2	28	6%	0.0
Aaron Jones	3	5	27	14%	-0.3
Sammy Watkins	3	3	18	9%	1.2
Juwann Winfree	1	1	17	3%	2.0
Randall Cobb	2	3	14	9%	0.9
Tyler Davis	1	1	3	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
De'Vondre Campbell	4	6	0.0	0
Quay Walker	7	1	0.0	0
Rashan Gary	2	4	1.0	0
Jaire Alexander	4	1	0.0	0
Rasul Douglas	4	0	0.0	0
Eric Stokes	3	1	0.0	0
Jarran Reed	2	1	0.0	0
Adrian Amos	2	1	0.0	1
Darnell Savage	2	0	0.0	0
Kingsley Enagbare	2	0	0.0	0

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	23/32	277	2	0	1	9.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Dalvin Cook	20	90	4.5	0	-1.7
Alexander Mattison	8	36	4.5	0	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Justin Jefferson	9	11	184	2	35%	14.5
Adam Thielen	3	4	36	0	13%	0.5
Dalvin Cook	3	5	18	0	16%	-0.1
Johnny Mundt	3	3	17	0	10%	0.2
K.J. Osborn	3	4	14	0	13%	-2.3
C.J. Ham	1	1	6	0	3%	0.5
Ben Ellefson	1	1	2	0	3%	-0.8
Irv Smith	0	2	0	0	6%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jordan Hicks	8	5	1.0	0	0
Camryn Bynum	4	3	0.0	0	0
Harrison Smith	5	2	0.0	1	1
Patrick Peterson	3	2	0.0	0	0
Cameron Dantzler	4	0	0.0	0	0
Eric Kendricks	1	3	0.0	0	1
Chandon Sullivan	1	2	0.0	0	0
D.J. Wonnum	2	0	1.0	0	0
Josh Metellus	1	1	0.0	0	0
Danielle Hunter	1	1	1.0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIN -2.5
Closing total: 47
GB moneyline: +113
MIN moneyline: -125

Vikings closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 16.

Total closed 47; the game landed 30 — under by 17.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: GB 7 days · MIN 7 days
Coaches: Matt LaFleur vs Kevin O'Connell

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.