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(8:03) (Shotgun) 28-A.Dillon up the middle to MIN 1 for no gain (55-Z.Smith, 97-H.Phillips).
Swing +10.2 for VikingsExpected points +4.17 for VikingsThe model had Vikings 2 points higher than the market did.play 51
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 8:03GB +10% win prob(8:03) (Shotgun) 28-A.Dillon up the middle to MIN 1 for no gain (55-Z.Smith, 97-H.Phillips).
2nd · 5:54MIN +10% win prob(5:54) (No Huddle) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson pushed ob at GB 13 for 64 yards (26-D.Savage).
1st · 9:21MIN +8% win prob(9:21) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 12:56MIN +7% win prob(12:56) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 18-J.Jefferson to GB 41 for 20 yards (59-D.Campbell).
1st · 6:18GB +6% win prob(6:18) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at MIN 10 for -8 yards (52-R.Gary).
1st · 2:44GB +5% win prob(2:44) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at MIN 48 for -8 yards (55-Z.Smith).
2nd · 0:45MIN +5% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Justin Jefferson's 5-yard touchdown catch with 9:21 left in the 1st put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
4th6:52Greg Joseph·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaola+37–23
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Packerscategory by categoryVikings
Packers3–4Vikings
339Total yards395
5.7Yards per play6.5
46%Success rate43%
33%Third-down rate31%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
9Explosive plays9
21First downs19
4Sacks taken1
2Turnovers0
The read
Vikings ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.19Packers: −0.19 expected points added per play
+0.13Vikings: +0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.28Packers: −0.28 expected points added per play
+0.28Vikings: +0.28 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.04Packers: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.05Vikings: −0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 59 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Vikings’s 61 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Packers 3, Vikings 4.
NoteVikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.19.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 19 pts
inside their normal wobble · +7.5 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.95× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Vikings11.9%
right on their number · +0.1 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
NoteMIN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 46.8%, 13.1 points below their season mean of 59.9% and 1.4 times their own 9.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Cousins pass+9% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(5:54) (No Huddle) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson pushed ob at GB 13 for 64 yards (26-D.Savage).
Q2 5:54 · Vikings · 1st & 10 at MIN 23 · gained 64 · +4.01 EP · +9.1% win probability
150 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 163 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, manual charting on 139. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 94 yards from the MIN 1 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
163 of 163 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
163
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
39%
Yards
733
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.2968%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.2578%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.0550%
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8+0.020%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.2771%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.4450%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.2633%
snapsepapass rate
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Packers0Vikings6
Packers0Vikings7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Vikings 22 to the Packers 5
Punt7 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 38
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 15 to the Vikings 18
Punt8 plays, from the Packers 46 to the Vikings 40
The period ended4 plays, from the Vikings 15 to the Vikings 27
2nd quarter46 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Vikings 35
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Vikings 1
Packers0Vikings10
Field goal9 plays, from the Vikings 1 to the Packers 5
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 28
Packers0Vikings16
Packers0Vikings17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Vikings 26 to the Packers 36
Intercepted2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Vikings 31
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter32 plays
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Packers 18 to the Packers 44
Packers0Vikings20
Field goal5 plays, from the Packers 33 to the Packers 28
Packers6Vikings20
Packers7Vikings20
Touchdown9 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Vikings 2
Punt9 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 45
The period ended3 plays, from the Packers 17 to the Packers 26
4th quarter49 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Packers 31 to the Packers 48
Packers7Vikings23
Field goal12 plays, from the Vikings 16 to the Packers 10
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Vikings 18
Punt12 plays, from the Vikings 18 to the Packers 48
The period ended6 plays, from the Packers 8 to the Packers 48
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
