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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:40 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 11, 2022 · U.S. Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 1
It turned at Q2 8:03, 4th and 1, on A.J. Dillon — 10.2 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Minnesota Vikings 23–7. Biggest swing: Q2 8:03, Vikings +10.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 8:03 · 4th and 1
A.J. Dillon
Vikings
(8:03) (Shotgun) 28-A.Dillon up the middle to MIN 1 for no gain (55-Z.Smith, 97-H.Phillips).
10.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Vikings won this one — +0.28 expected points per dropback, against Packers at -0.28 expected points per dropback.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Vikings won this one — no giveaways, against Packers at 2 giveaways.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Vikings won this one — +0.13 expected points per snap, against Packers at -0.19 expected points per snap.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Packers owned this one and still lost it — 46% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Vikings at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market saw this game the same way — never more than 3 points apart.
(8:03) (Shotgun) 28-A.Dillon up the middle to MIN 1 for no gain (55-Z.Smith, 97-H.Phillips).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Justin Jefferson's 5-yard touchdown catch with 9:21 left in the 1st put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Justin Jefferson5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Kirk CousinsLead never changed again+70–76 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Packerscategory by categoryVikings
Vikings ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 59 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Vikings’s 61 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Packers 3, Vikings 4.
Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.19.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 19 pts
Over Expected room →Packers5.4 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +8.8 vs their -3.4 pts, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+1.01× that swing) · 59 snaps
Vikings4.3 ptsright on their number · +1.8 vs their 2.5 pts, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+0.35× that swing) · 61 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 21% to 86%
Tendencies room →Packers68.8%leaned — passed early · +15.8 vs their 53.0%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (+1.28× that swing) · 48 early downs
Vikings46.8%leaned — ran early · −13.1 vs their 59.9%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (−1.35× that swing) · 47 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 56%
Tendencies room →Packers23.8%right on their number · −3.0 vs their 26.8%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Vikings42.4%leaned — faked the run · +14.0 vs their 28.4%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (+1.31× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34% to 108%
Fourth Down room →Packers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 44.3%.
Vikings33.3%right on their number · −3.5 vs their 36.9%, and they swing ±28.0 week to week (−0.13× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 54%
Tendencies room →Packers18.2%right on their number · −4.6 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (−0.38× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Vikings16.7%right on their number · −2.4 vs their 19.1%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−0.31× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 37%
Tendencies room →Packers24.2%inside their normal wobble · +7.5 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.95× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Vikings11.9%right on their number · +0.1 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
MIN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 46.8%, 13.1 points below their season mean of 59.9% and 1.4 times their own 9.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIN
23/32, 277 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
9.3 expected points added · +5.2% completion over expected
Passing · GB
22/34, 195 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-11.6 expected points added · -2.8% completion over expected
Receiving · MIN
9/11 for 184 yds, 2 TD
35% of team targets · 14.5 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Justin Jefferson banked 14.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin JeffersonWR · Alpha Receiver | 39.4 | +14.8 | 92% | 100% | 35% | 73% | 9/11, 184 yd, 2 TD |
| A.J. DillonRB · Committee Back | 20.1 | +0.7 | 51% | 42% | 17% | 0% | 10 car, 45 yd, 1 TD · 5/6, 46 yd |
| Kirk CousinsQB · Starter QB | 19.1 | +2.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/32, 277 yd, 2 TD |
| Dalvin CookRB · Bell Cow Back | 13.8 | −4.2 | 77% | 82% | 16% | 0% | 20 car, 90 yd · 3/5, 18 yd |
| Aaron JonesRB · Receiving Back | 10.6 | 0.0 | 61% | 67% | 14% | 0% | 5 car, 49 yd · 3/5, 27 yd |
| Romeo DoubsWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.8 | −1.4 | 57% | 56% | 14% | 23% | 1 car, 11 yd · 4/5, 37 yd |
| Robert TonyanTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.6 | −2.3 | 36% | 47% | 14% | 11% | 3/5, 36 yd |
| Adam ThielenWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.6 | +0.3 | 95% | 100% | 13% | 17% | 3/4, 36 yd |
| Christian WatsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.1 | −1.6 | 66% | 65% | 11% | 28% | 1 car, 7 yd · 2/4, 34 yd |
| Josiah DeguaraTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.8 | +1.1 | 25% | 23% | 6% | 9% | 2/2, 28 yd |
| Sammy WatkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.8 | +0.5 | 67% | 65% | 9% | 1% | 3/3, 18 yd |
| Johnny MundtTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.7 | −0.3 | 65% | 52% | 10% | 2% | 3/3, 17 yd |
| K.J. OsbornWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | −3.8 | 68% | 85% | 13% | 14% | 3/4, 14 yd |
| Aaron RodgersQB · Starter QB | 3.7 | −9.6 | 92% | — | 0% | — | 22/34, 195 yd, 1 INT · 1 car, -1 yd |
| Alexander MattisonRB | 3.6 | −0.5 | 23% | 18% | 0% | — | 8 car, 36 yd |
| Randall CobbWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | −0.9 | 61% | 63% | 9% | 26% | 2/3, 14 yd |
| Juwann WinfreeWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | +1.1 | 15% | 19% | 3% | 6% | 1/1, 17 yd |
| Jordan LoveQB | 2.6 | +1.2 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| C.J. HamRB | 1.6 | +0.6 | 23% | 6% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Tyler DavisTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | 0.0 | 25% | 19% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 3 yd |
| Ben EllefsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −0.4 | 27% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 2 yd |
| Amari RodgersWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Kene NwangwuRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Irv SmithTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.7 | 31% | 45% | 6% | 2% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Jalen ReagorWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(5:54) (No Huddle) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson pushed ob at GB 13 for 64 yards (26-D.Savage).
Q2 5:54 · Vikings · 1st & 10 at MIN 23 · gained 64 · +4.01 EP · +9.1% win probability
150 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 163 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, manual charting on 139. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 94 yards from the MIN 1 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Packers0
Vikings6Packers0Vikings7Packers0Vikings10Packers0Vikings16Packers0Vikings17Packers0Vikings20Packers6Vikings20Packers7Vikings20Packers7Vikings23Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Packers at Vikings, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 22/34 | 195 | 0 | 1 | 4 | −11.6 |
| Jordan Love | 4/5 | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 5 | 49 | 9.8 | 0 | +2.6 |
| A.J. Dillon | 10 | 45 | 4.5 | 1 | −2.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Dillon | 5 | 6 | 46 | 0 | 17% | +2.0 |
| Romeo Doubs | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 | 14% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Vondre Campbell | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quay Walker | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashan Gary |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 23/32 | 277 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +9.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_01_GB_MIN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Vikings closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 16.
Total closed 47; the game landed 30 — under by 17.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Romeo Doubs | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Christian Watson | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| +1.3 |
| Robert Tonyan | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 | 14% | −2.5 |
| Christian Watson | 2 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 11% | −1.5 |
| Josiah Deguara | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 | 6% | +0.0 |
| Aaron Jones | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 14% | −0.3 |
| Sammy Watkins | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 9% | +1.2 |
| Juwann Winfree | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 3% | +2.0 |
| Randall Cobb | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 9% | +0.9 |
| Tyler Davis | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| 2 |
| 4 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jaire Alexander | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rasul Douglas | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Stokes | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarran Reed | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Amos | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Darnell Savage | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kingsley Enagbare | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 20 | 90 | 4.5 | 0 | −1.7 |
| Alexander Mattison | 8 | 36 | 4.5 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 9 | 11 | 184 | 2 | 35% | +14.5 |
| Adam Thielen | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 | 13% | +0.5 |
| Dalvin Cook | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 16% | −0.1 |
| Johnny Mundt | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 10% | +0.2 |
| K.J. Osborn | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 13% | −2.3 |
| C.J. Ham | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +0.5 |
| Ben Ellefson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Irv Smith | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Hicks | 8 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Camryn Bynum | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Smith | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Patrick Peterson | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Dantzler | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Kendricks | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Chandon Sullivan | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Wonnum | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Metellus | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Danielle Hunter | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
