2022 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 11, 2022 · NRG Stadium

Indianapolis Colts

Houston Texans

IND -7 upsetU 46 ✓DomeColts closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

A 20–20 tie. Biggest swing: OT 0:26, HOU +83% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 0:26IND 20 — HOU 20HOU ball · 4th & 3IND 88%

(:26) 11-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to IND 6, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 21-N.Hines.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 0:26HOU +83% win prob(:26) 11-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to IND 6, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 21-N.Hines.
OT · 0:02HOU +48% win prob(:02) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 1-P.Campbell to IND 27 for 20 yards (50-M.Dwumfour).
OT · 0:40IND +36% win prob(:40) 67-C.Heck reported in as eligible. 28-R.Burkhead right guard to IND 49 for -2 yards (90-G.Stewart).
OT · 2:00IND +28% win prob(2:00) 3-R.Blankenship 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 5:18IND Field goal
(5:18) 3-R.Blankenship 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.
Score after this play: IND 3 — HOU 0
Q2 · 7:54HOU Field goal
(7:54) 7-K.Fairbairn 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
Score after this play: IND 3 — HOU 3
Q2 · 2:42HOU Touchdown
(2:42) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short right to 83-O.Howard for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: IND 3 — HOU 10
Q3 · 12:20HOU Field goal
(12:20) 7-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
Score after this play: IND 3 — HOU 13
Q3 · 7:21HOU Touchdown
(7:21) 10-D.Mills pass deep left to 83-O.Howard for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: IND 3 — HOU 20
Q4 · 10:47IND Field goal
(10:47) 3-R.Blankenship 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.
Score after this play: IND 6 — HOU 20
Q4 · 7:46IND Touchdown
(7:46) 28-J.Taylor right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: IND 13 — HOU 20
Q4 · 2:00IND Touchdown
(2:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 11-M.Pittman for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: IND 20 — HOU 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Colts	Texans
Offensive plays	90	67
Total yards	517 (edge)	301
Yards per play	5.7 (edge)	4.5
Expected points added / play	-0.01 (edge)	-0.18
Success rate	49% (edge)	45%
Dropback rate	60%	61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.09 (edge)	-0.13
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.15 (edge)	-0.24
Third downs	6/15 (edge)	5/15
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	11 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	31 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.18.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · IND

Matt RyanQB

32/50, 352 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

3.0 expected points added · -4.8% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

Davis MillsQB

23/37, 240 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-6.5 expected points added · -6.7% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

31 att, 161 yds, 1 TD

4.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

Rex BurkheadRB

14 att, 40 yds, 0 TD

-4.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · IND

Michael PittmanWR

9/13 for 121 yds, 1 TD

27% of team targets · 8.1 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Brandin CooksWR

7/12 for 82 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · -1.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	IND	IND 25	5	9	1:52	Punt
2	HOU	HOU 22	4	8	1:09	Punt
3	IND	IND 26	12	47	6:46	Field goal +3
4	HOU	HOU 25	5	5	1:27	Punt
5	IND	IND 30	10	66	4:36	Turnover on downs
6	HOU	HOU 4	14	69	6:20	Field goal +3
7	IND	IND 25	7	53	3:24	Interception
8	HOU	HOU 42	5	25	1:49	Touchdown +7
9	IND	IND 25	10	33	1:59	Punt
10	HOU	HOU 14	6	37	0:38	End of half
11	HOU	HOU 25	6	50	2:43	Field goal +3
12	IND	IND 25	8	20	3:21	Fumble
13	HOU	HOU 42	5	43	1:40	Touchdown +7
14	IND	IND 25	5	4	1:00	Punt
15	HOU	HOU 1	13	37	6:30	Punt
16	IND	IND 15	11	81	4:02	Field goal +3
17	HOU	HOU 25	3	-3	0:55	Fumble
18	IND	HOU 20	5	20	2:07	Touchdown +7
19	HOU	HOU 25	7	13	3:13	Punt
20	IND	IND 20	8	80	2:35	Touchdown +7
21	HOU	HOU 40	5	4	0:38	Punt
22	IND	IND 9	8	35	1:05	Punt
23	HOU	HOU 19	1	0	0:11	Turnover on downs
24	HOU	HOU 40	5	-11	1:33	Punt
25	IND	IND 31	13	48	6:30	Missed field goal
26	HOU	HOU 32	6	24	1:37	Punt
27	IND	IND 6	2	21	0:20	End of game

8 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 81 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	32/50	352	1	1	2	3.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jonathan Taylor	31	161	5.2	1	4.9
Matt Ryan	4	12	3.0	0	-4.4
Nyheim Miller-Hines	3	4	1.3	0	-4.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Pittman	9	13	121	1	27%	8.1
Nyheim Miller-Hines	6	6	50	0	12%	3.5
Ashton Dulin	3	6	46	0	12%	1.1
Parris Campbell	3	4	37	0	8%	2.4
Mike Strachan	2	2	36	0	4%	2.9
Mo Alie-Cox	2	2	26	0	4%	2.4
Kylen Granson	3	7	22	0	14%	-1.4
Jonathan Taylor	4	7	14	0	14%	-10.0
Alec Pierce	0	2	0	0	4%	-2.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Zaire Franklin	5	2	0.0	0
E.J. Speed	3	4	1.0	0
Bobby Okereke	6	1	0.0	1
Kwity Paye	5	1	2.0	0
Kenny Moore	4	1	0.0	0
Nick Cross	4	0	0.0	0
Grover Stewart	4	0	0.0	0
Stephon Gilmore	3	0	0.0	0
DeForest Buckner	1	2	0.0	0
Brandon Facyson	2	0	0.0	0

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Davis Mills	23/37	240	2	0	3	-6.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Rex Burkhead	14	40	2.9	-4.1
Dameon Pierce	11	33	3.0	-1.9
Jeff Driskel	1	5	5.0	1.0
Davis Mills	2	-1	-0.5	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Brandin Cooks	7	12	82	0	33%	-1.2
O.J. Howard	2	2	38	2	6%	4.7
Chris Moore	3	3	31	0	8%	3.4
Rex Burkhead	5	8	30	0	22%	-1.5
Nico Collins	2	3	26	0	8%	-2.1
Pharaoh Brown	1	1	17	0	3%	0.9
Dameon Pierce	1	1	6	0	3%	-0.0
Brevin Jordan	1	2	5	0	6%	0.8
Troy Hairston	1	1	5	0	3%	0.1
Chris Conley	0	2	0	0	6%	-2.1
Phillip Dorsett	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Kamu Grugier-Hill	11	4	1
Jonathan Owens	9	4	1
Jalen Pitre	4	5	0
Christian Kirksey	1	7	0
Derek Stingley	3	4	1
Desmond King	4	1	2
Steven Nelson	4	1	2
Jonathan Greenard	2	2	0
Maliek Collins	2	2	1
Tremon Smith	1	1	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: IND -7
Closing total: 46
IND moneyline: -290
HOU moneyline: +250

Colts closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 46; the game landed 40 — under by 6.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: NRG Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: IND 7 days · HOU 7 days
Coaches: Frank Reich vs Lovie Smith

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.