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1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 14.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Colts202 of 217 plays carry both curves
(:26) 11-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to IND 6, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 21-N.Hines.
Swing +83.2 for TexansExpected points −0.34 for TexansModel and market agree here.play 213
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 0:26HOU +83% win prob(:26) 11-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to IND 6, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 21-N.Hines.
Overtime · 0:02HOU +48% win prob(:02) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 1-P.Campbell to IND 27 for 20 yards (50-M.Dwumfour).
Overtime · 0:40IND +36% win prob(:40) 67-C.Heck reported in as eligible. 28-R.Burkhead right guard to IND 49 for -2 yards (90-G.Stewart).
Overtime · 2:00IND +28% win prob(2:00) 3-R.Blankenship 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.
Overtime · 6:55HOU +20% win prob(6:55) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 1-P.Campbell to HOU 47 for 12 yards (5-J.Pitre, 58-C.Kirksey).
Overtime · 5:27HOU +19% win prob(5:27) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 21-N.Hines to HOU 35 for 15 yards (51-K.Grugier-Hill) [45-O.Okoronkwo].
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Neither side got further than 17 clear, and 8 scores later it was still level.
Lead
1st5:18Rodrigo Blankenship·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap L.Rhodes+33–0
2nd7:54Ka'imi Fairbairn·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap J.Weeks+33–3
2nd2:42O.J. Howard·16-yd TD catch16-yard touchdown catchfrom Davis Millsfrom Davis Mills+73–10
3rd12:20Ka'imi Fairbairn·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap J.Weeks+33–13
3rd7:21O.J. Howard·22-yd TD catch22-yard touchdown catchfrom Davis Millsfrom Davis Mills+73–20
4th10:47Rodrigo Blankenship·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap L.Rhodes+36–20
4th2:00Michael Pittman·15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt Ryan+720–20
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Coltscategory by categoryTexans
Colts8–1Texans
517Total yards301
5.7Yards per play4.5
49%Success rate45%
40%Third-down rate33%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
11Explosive plays2
31First downs16
2Sacks taken3
2Turnovers1
The read
Colts ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.01Colts: −0.01 expected points added per play
−0.18Texans: −0.18 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.09Colts: +0.09 expected points added per play
−0.13Texans: −0.13 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.15Colts: −0.15 expected points added per play
−0.24Texans: −0.24 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 90 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Texans’s 67 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Colts 5, Texans 2.
NoteColts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekFourth Down
HOU's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 22 team-games charted in week 1 — 16.7 points clear of the next team along.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 23.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · −1.8 vs their 14.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.27× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Texans13.0%
right on their number · −1.3 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−0.16× that swing) · 54 dropbacks
NoteHOU's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 31.3 points below their season mean of 31.3% and 1.3 times their own 23.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
C.Johnston punts+83% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:26) 11-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to IND 6, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 21-N.Hines.
OT 0:26 · Texans · 4th & 3 at IND 49 · gained nothing · -0.34 EP · +83.2% win probability
200 snaps placed · 17 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 217 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 217 snaps, manual charting on 185. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 81 yards from the IND 15 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
217 of 217 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
217
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
42%
Yards
816
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR68+0.1163%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26-0.1365%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.0329%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.0564%
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8+0.0875%
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.1050%
Texans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-1.2917%
Texans1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR5+0.2280%
Colts2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Colts2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
217 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
217 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 34
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 22 to the Texans 30
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Colts3Texans0
Field goal12 plays, from the Colts 26 to the Texans 27
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 30
The period ended8 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Texans 9
2nd quarter53 plays
Turnover on downs3 plays, from the Texans 11 to the Texans 2
Colts3Texans3
Field goal14 plays, from the Texans 4 to the Colts 27
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, it should have been intercepted.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Texans 22
Colts3Texans9
Colts3Texans10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Texans 42 to the Colts 16
Punt12 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Texans 30
The period ended2 plays
The period ended1 play
The period ended8 plays, from the Texans 19 to the Texans 43
3rd quarter41 plays
Colts3Texans13
Field goal6 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Colts 25
Fumble lost11 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Texans 40
Colts3Texans19
Colts3Texans20
Touchdown5 plays, from the Texans 42 to the Colts 22
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 29
The period ended14 plays, from the Texans 1 to the Colts 43
4th quarter56 plays
Punt3 plays
Colts6Texans20
Field goal12 plays, from the Colts 15 to the Texans 4
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 29
Colts12Texans20
Colts13Texans20
Touchdown5 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Texans 2
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 38
Colts19Texans20
Colts20Texans20
Touchdown8 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Texans 15
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 40 to the Texans 44
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Drive ended11 plays, from the Colts 9 to the Colts 44
The period ended2 plays
Overtime32 plays
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFour
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThree
Punt6 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSix defenders
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
No good13 plays, from the Colts 31 to the Texans 16
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Punt9 plays, from the Texans 32 to the Colts 47
How the play was built
A screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.3 seconds
The period ended4 plays, from the Colts 6 to the Colts 7
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
