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Jacksonville Jaguars 22 at Washington Commanders 28. Final.
Commanders -3 ✓O 43.5 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 1
Washington Commanders 28, Jaguars 22 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 12:04, 1st and 10, on Travon Walker — 22.7 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 12:04 · 1st and 10
Travon Walker
Jaguars
(12:04) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle intended for 24-A.Gibson INTERCEPTED by 44-T.Walker at WAS 20. 44-T.Walker to WAS 11 for 9 yards (11-C.Wentz).
Commanders closed -3 and covered, winning by 6.
Washington Commanders 28–22. Biggest swing: Q4 12:04, Jaguars +22.7% win probability on one snap.
22.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Terry McLaurinCommandersQ4 9:43(9:43) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep right to 17-T.McLaurin for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
19.8pts
Jahan DotsonCommandersQ4 1:52(1:52) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep left to 1-J.Dotson for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
19.9pts
What separated them
Third down
Commanders won this one — 7 of 10 on third down, against Jaguars at 3 of 12 on third down.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — +0.22 expected points per carry, against Commanders at -0.26 expected points per carry.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Commanders at 3 giveaways.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Commanders won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Jaguars at 7 chunk plays.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Jaguars177 of 188 plays carry both curves
(12:04) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle intended for 24-A.Gibson INTERCEPTED by 44-T.Walker at WAS 20. 44-T.Walker to WAS 11 for 9 yards (11-C.Wentz).
Swing −22.7 for CommandersExpected points −6.01 for CommandersThe model had Commanders 3 points higher than the market did.play 140
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 12:04JAX +23% win prob(12:04) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle intended for 24-A.Gibson INTERCEPTED by 44-T.Walker at WAS 20. 44-T.Walker to WAS 11 for 9 yards (11-C.Wentz).
4th · 1:52WAS +20% win prob(1:52) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep left to 1-J.Dotson for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 9:43WAS +20% win prob(9:43) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep right to 17-T.McLaurin for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:19JAX +19% win prob(1:19) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 22-D.Forrest [90-M.Sweat] at WAS 25. 22-D.Forrest pushed ob at WAS 26 for 1 yard (17-E.Engram).
4th · 14:24JAX +17% win prob(14:24) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left intended for 1-J.Dotson INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Campbell at WAS 48. 32-T.Campbell pushed ob at WAS 45 for 3 yards (1-J.Dotson).
4th · 13:00JAX +10% win prob(13:00) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short middle [95-C.Toohill]. PENALTY on JAX-16-T.Lawrence, Intentional Grounding, 12 yards, enforced at WAS 31. Washington challenged the forward pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jahan Dotson's 24-yard touchdown catch with 1:52 left in the 4th put Washington Commanders ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st12:01Riley Patterson·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+33–0
Commanders ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Jaguars, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.06Jaguars: +0.06 expected points added per play
+0.05Commanders: +0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.01Jaguars: −0.01 expected points added per play
+0.19Commanders: +0.19 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.22Jaguars: +0.22 expected points added per play
−0.26Commanders: −0.26 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 63 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Commanders’s 69 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 5, Commanders 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 14 pts
inside their normal wobble · −8.2 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.93× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Commanders21.7%
right on their number · +2.9 vs their 18.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
NoteWAS's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 9.0 pts, 16.6 points above their season mean of -7.6 pts and 2.0 times their own 8.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Wentz pass−25% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(12:04) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle intended for 24-A.Gibson INTERCEPTED by 44-T.Walker at WAS 20. 44-T.Walker to WAS 11 for 9 yards (11-C.Wentz).
Q4 12:04 · Commanders · 1st & 10 at WAS 25 · gained nothing · -6.01 EP · −25.0% win probability
175 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 188 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 188 snaps, manual charting on 159. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 90 yards from the WAS 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
188 of 188 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
188
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
41%
Yards
775
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51-0.0167%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.0080%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.1660%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.2844%
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Jaguars2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Commanders2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Commanders1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Jaguars1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
188 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
188 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Jaguars3Commanders0
Field goal10 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Commanders 13
Jaguars3Commanders6
Jaguars3Commanders7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Commanders 26 to the Jaguars 3
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 37
The period ended9 plays, from the Commanders 29 to the Jaguars 42
2nd quarter53 plays
Jaguars3Commanders13
Jaguars3Commanders14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Jaguars 41 to the Jaguars 7
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 30
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 28 to the Commanders 31
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Jaguars 29 to the Commanders 3
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Commanders 3 to the Jaguars 39
No good13 plays, from the Jaguars 34 to the Commanders 9
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 36
Jaguars9Commanders14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Commanders 3
Punt8 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 43
Jaguars12Commanders14
Field goal12 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Commanders 25
The period ended5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 34
4th quarter58 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the Commanders 37 to the Commanders 39
Jaguars15Commanders14
Field goal6 plays, from the Commanders 45 to the Commanders 26
How the play was built
A screen, play action, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, it should have been intercepted.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, one linebacker and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Jaguars21Commanders14
Jaguars22Commanders14
Touchdown2 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Jaguars22Commanders20
Touchdown6 plays, from the Commanders 22 to the Jaguars 49
Punt6 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Commanders 42
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Jaguars22Commanders26
Jaguars22Commanders28
Touchdown18 plays, from the Commanders 10 to the Jaguars 24
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.1 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 45
The period ended8 plays, from the Commanders 26 to the Commanders 38
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
