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Kansas City Chiefs 44 at Arizona Cardinals 21. Final.
Chiefs -6 ✓O 54 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 1
Kansas City Chiefs 44, Cardinals 21 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 7:37, 4th and 2, on Clyde Edwards-Helaire — 6.2 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 7:37 · 4th and 2
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Chiefs
(7:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 25-C.Edwards-Helaire for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Chiefs closed -6 and covered, winning by 23.
Kansas City Chiefs 44–21 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 7:37, Chiefs +6.2% win probability on one snap.
6.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
JuJu Smith-SchusterChiefsQ1 10:28(10:28) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 9-J.Smith-Schuster pushed ob at ARI 9 for 18 yards (9-I.Simmons).
6.0pts
Mecole HardmanChiefsQ2 10:34(10:34) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 17-M.Hardman pushed ob at ARI 41 for 8 yards (7-B.Murphy). PENALTY on ARI-34-J.Thompson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ARI 41.
3.9pts
What separated them
Third down
Chiefs won this one — 5 of 8 on third down, against Cardinals at 3 of 12 on third down.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Chiefs won this one — 58% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.70 expected points per dropback, against Cardinals at +0.03 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — +0.42 expected points per snap, against Cardinals at +0.01 expected points per snap.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on Chiefs165 of 173 plays carry both curves
(7:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 25-C.Edwards-Helaire for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −6.2 for CardinalsExpected points −3.91 for CardinalsThe model had Cardinals 10 points higher than the market did.play 56
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 7:37ARI +6% win prob(7:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 25-C.Edwards-Helaire for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 10:28ARI +6% win prob(10:28) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 9-J.Smith-Schuster pushed ob at ARI 9 for 18 yards (9-I.Simmons).
2nd · 10:34ARI +4% win prob(10:34) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 17-M.Hardman pushed ob at ARI 41 for 8 yards (7-B.Murphy). PENALTY on ARI-34-J.Thompson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ARI 41.
2nd · 1:05KC +3% win prob(1:05) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 9-J.Smith-Schuster to KC 39 for 19 yards (45-D.Gardeck). FUMBLES (45-D.Gardeck), RECOVERED by ARI-7-B.Murphy at KC 42.
2nd · 13:09ARI +3% win prob(13:09) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:40KC +3% win prob(:40) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep left to 6-J.Conner [56-G.Karlaftis].
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Travis Kelce's 9-yard touchdown catch with 9:43 left in the 1st put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:43Travis Kelce·9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick MahomesLead never changed again+77–0
1st3:24Clyde Edwards-Helaire·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+714–0
Chiefs ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.70 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.42Chiefs: +0.42 expected points added per play
+0.01Cardinals: +0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.70Chiefs: +0.70 expected points added per play
+0.03Cardinals: +0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.03Chiefs: −0.03 expected points added per play
−0.04Cardinals: −0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 66 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 64 at 72%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 6, Cardinals 3.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.42 expected points added per play vs 0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 29 pts
right on their number · −3.1 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.50× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Cardinals14.6%
right on their number · −1.8 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−0.22× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was ARI's play-action rate, 8.7% against a season mean of 14.8% — and ARI swings 8.5 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 6 inactive
52Creed HumphreyC · Every snap100%70 snaps
62Joe ThuneyG · Every snap100%70 snaps
57Orlando BrownT · Full-time93%65 snaps
77Andrew WylieG · Full-time93%65 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Full-time93%65 snaps
11Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Heavy rotation73%51 snaps
9JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Heavy rotation66%46 snaps
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Mahomes pass−9% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:05) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 9-J.Smith-Schuster to KC 39 for 19 yards (45-D.Gardeck). FUMBLES (45-D.Gardeck), RECOVERED by ARI-7-B.Murphy at KC 42.
Q2 1:05 · Chiefs · 1st & 10 at KC 20 · gained 19 · -3.35 EP · −8.7% win probability
163 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps, manual charting on 144. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 86 yards from the KC 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
+0.18
Success rate
47%
Yards
772
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.0666%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.6469%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.0671%
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR12-0.1567%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7+0.7757%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.1057%
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.070%
Cardinals2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Chiefs6Cardinals0
Chiefs7Cardinals0
Touchdown13 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Cardinals 9
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 34
Chiefs13Cardinals0
Chiefs14Cardinals0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chiefs 14 to the Cardinals 3
The period ended9 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 49
2nd quarter53 plays
Chiefs14Cardinals6
Chiefs14Cardinals7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Chiefs 35 to the Chiefs 2
Chiefs20Cardinals7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Cardinals 4
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 31
Punt6 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 42
Punt6 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Chiefs 48
Fumble lost1 play
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Chiefs 42 to the Chiefs 34
Chiefs23Cardinals7
Field goal8 plays, from the Chiefs 34 to the Cardinals 36
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Cardinals 26 to the Cardinals 37
Chiefs29Cardinals7
Chiefs30Cardinals7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Cardinals 1
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 30
Chiefs36Cardinals7
Chiefs37Cardinals7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chiefs 34 to the Cardinals 2
The period ended10 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Chiefs 32
4th quarter43 plays
Chiefs37Cardinals13
Chiefs37Cardinals15
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 6
Chiefs43Cardinals15
Chiefs44Cardinals15
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chiefs 34 to the Cardinals 3
Chiefs44Cardinals21
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chiefs 48 to the Chiefs 6
Punt7 plays, from the Chiefs 10 to the Chiefs 34
The period ended9 plays, from the Cardinals 21 to the Chiefs 47
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chiefs -6
Closing total
54
Chiefs moneyline
-252
Cardinals moneyline
+221
Chiefs closed -6 and covered, winning by 23.
Total closed 54; the game landed 65 — over by 11.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · grass
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
Chiefs 7 days · Cardinals 7 days
Coaches
Andy Reid vs Kliff Kingsbury
1st · 8:36
KC +3% win prob
(8:36) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at ARI 27 for -7 yards (38-L.Sneed).
1st · 7:07ARI +3% win prob(7:07) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep left to 9-J.Smith-Schuster. PENALTY on ARI-94-Z.Allen, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at KC 17 - No Play. Penalty on ARI-94-Z.Allen, Defensive Offside, declined.
