For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Raiders155 of 163 plays carry both curves
(2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LV 28 for -7 yards (52-K.Mack). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack) [52-K.Mack], recovered by LV-74-K.Miller at LV 28.
Swing +10.0 for ChargersExpected points +3.16 for ChargersModel and market agree here.play 154
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:00LV +10% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LV 28 for -7 yards (52-K.Mack). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack) [52-K.Mack], recovered by LV-74-K.Miller at LV 28.
1st · 7:33LAC +9% win prob(7:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at 50 for 21 yards (32-A.Gilman).
1st · 10:53LAC +8% win prob(10:53) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 7-G.Everett to LV 26 for 25 yards (30-D.Harmon) [55-C.Jones].
4th · 11:07LV +8% win prob(11:07) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left intended for 13-H.Renfrow INTERCEPTED by 23-B.Callahan at LAC 49. 23-B.Callahan to LV 49 for 2 yards (13-H.Renfrow).
2nd · 1:40LV +8% win prob(1:40) (No Huddle) 10-J.Herbert up the middle to LV 28 for no gain (98-M.Crosby, 97-A.Billings).
2nd · 11:59LAC +7% win prob(11:59) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 13-K.Allen pushed ob at LV 11 for 42 yards (25-T.Moehrig).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Zander Horvath's 1-yard touchdown catch with 9:38 left in the 2nd put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:07Dustin Hopkins·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.Harris+30–3
1st2:33Daniel Carlson·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap T.Sieg+33–3
Chargers ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.14Raiders: −0.14 expected points added per play
+0.08Chargers: +0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.17Raiders: −0.17 expected points added per play
+0.48Chargers: +0.48 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.05Raiders: −0.05 expected points added per play
−0.41Chargers: −0.41 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 57 snaps at a 77% dropback rate against Chargers’s 63 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 3, Chargers 4.
NoteChargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.14.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 20 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.9 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (−0.70× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Chargers20.5%
leaned — got home · +7.0 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+1.00× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
NoteLAC's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 9.1%, 22.2 points below their season mean of 31.3% and 2.0 times their own 11.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Herbert pass+12% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(10:53) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 7-G.Everett to LV 26 for 25 yards (30-D.Harmon) [55-C.Jones].
Q1 10:53 · Chargers · 3rd & 8 at LAC 49 · gained 25 · +3.04 EP · +11.9% win probability
153 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 163 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, manual charting on 137. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 75 yards from the LV 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
163 of 163 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
163
EPA per play
-0.06
Success rate
40%
Yards
675
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47-0.1781%
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.0855%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.3350%
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-0.3671%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.2440%
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Chargers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Chargers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
How the play was built
Play action, no huddle, a man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, from outside the pocket.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerTwoPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.1 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Raiders0Chargers3
Field goal13 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Raiders 25
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.0 seconds
Raiders3Chargers3
Field goal15 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Chargers 4
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 40 to the Chargers 49
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter40 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Raiders 7 to the Raiders 11
Raiders3Chargers9
Raiders3Chargers10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chargers 33 to the Raiders 1
Drive ended4 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 45
Punt3 plays
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Chargers 9 to the Raiders 28
Intercepted2 plays
Raiders3Chargers16
Raiders3Chargers17
Touchdown4 plays, from the Raiders 31 to the Raiders 23
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Raiders9Chargers17
Raiders10Chargers17
Touchdown7 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Chargers 18
Raiders10Chargers23
Raiders10Chargers24
Touchdown13 plays, from the Chargers 27 to the Raiders 18
Raiders13Chargers24
Field goal14 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Chargers 25
The period ended4 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 27
4th quarter49 plays
Punt2 plays
Intercepted3 plays, from the Raiders 23 to the Chargers 44
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 2 to the Chargers 11
Intercepted2 plays, from the Raiders 40 to the Raiders 48
No good7 plays, from the Raiders 49 to the Raiders 30
Raiders19Chargers24
Touchdown10 plays, from the Raiders 39 to the Chargers 3
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 32
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Raiders 21 to the Raiders 40
The period ended9 plays, from the Raiders 28 to the Raiders 17
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chargers -3.5
Closing total
52.5
Raiders moneyline
+161
Chargers moneyline
-180
Chargers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 5.
Total closed 52.5; the game landed 43 — under by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
Raiders 7 days · Chargers 7 days
Coaches
Josh McDaniels vs Brandon Staley
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
4th · 2:40
LV +7% win prob
(2:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LV 37 for -3 yards (sack split by 97-J.Bosa and 56-M.Fox). FUMBLES (97-J.Bosa) [97-J.Bosa], recovered by LV-76-J.Simpson at LV 35.
2nd · 0:57LV +7% win prob(:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle intended for 83-D.Waller INTERCEPTED by 49-D.Tranquill at LAC 49. 49-D.Tranquill to LV 31 for 20 yards (34-B.Bolden).
