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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:41 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 11, 2022 · SoFi Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 1
It turned at Q4 2:00, 4th and 8, on Derek Carr — 10.0 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Los Angeles Chargers 24–19. Biggest swing: Q4 2:00, Chargers +10.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:00 · 4th and 8
Derek Carr
Chargers
(2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LV 28 for -7 yards (52-K.Mack). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack) [52-K.Mack], recovered by LV-74-K.Miller at LV 28.
10.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Chargers won this one — no giveaways, against Raiders at 3 giveaways.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chargers won this one — +0.48 expected points per dropback, against Raiders at -0.17 expected points per dropback.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Raiders owned this one and still lost it — -0.05 expected points per carry, against Chargers at -0.41 expected points per carry.
Raidersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Chargers won this one — +0.08 expected points per snap, against Raiders at -0.14 expected points per snap.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
(2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LV 28 for -7 yards (52-K.Mack). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack) [52-K.Mack], recovered by LV-74-K.Miller at LV 28.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Zander Horvath's 1-yard touchdown catch with 9:38 left in the 2nd put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Zander Horvath1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Justin HerbertLead never changed again+73–108 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Raiderscategory by categoryChargers
Chargers ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 57 snaps at a 77% dropback rate against Chargers’s 63 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 3, Chargers 4.
Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.14.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 20 pts
Over Expected room →Raiders6.7 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +10.1 vs their -3.4 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+1.49× that swing) · 56 snaps
Chargers2.2 ptsright on their number · −2.1 vs their 4.3 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 63 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 29% to 93%
Tendencies room →Raiders72.1%leaned — passed early · +15.7 vs their 56.4%, and they swing ±10.3 week to week (+1.52× that swing) · 43 early downs
Chargers54.2%inside their normal wobble · −9.6 vs their 63.7%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (−0.84× that swing) · 48 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 49%
Tendencies room →Raiders9.1%leaned — dropped back clean · −11.6 vs their 20.7%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (−1.12× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Chargers40.0%leaned — faked the run · +13.3 vs their 26.7%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+1.54× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -35% to 114%
Fourth Down room →Raiders33.3%right on their number · −6.1 vs their 39.4%, and they swing ±29.1 week to week (−0.21× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Chargers16.7%inside their normal wobble · −13.7 vs their 30.4%, and they swing ±18.2 week to week (−0.76× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 61%
Tendencies room →Raiders5.7%leaned — sat back · −18.3 vs their 24.0%, and they swing ±12.9 week to week (−1.42× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Chargers9.1%leaned — sat back · −22.2 vs their 31.3%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (−1.98× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 31%
Tendencies room →Raiders8.6%inside their normal wobble · −4.9 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (−0.70× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Chargers20.5%leaned — got home · +7.0 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+1.00× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
LAC's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 9.1%, 22.2 points below their season mean of 31.3% and 2.0 times their own 11.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Los Angeles Chargers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · LV
22/37, 295 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT
-5.5 expected points added · -2.4% completion over expected
Passing · LAC
26/34, 279 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
14.9 expected points added · +6.4% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
DeAndre Carter banked 5.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante AdamsWR · Alpha Receiver | 30.1 | −4.6 | 95% | 98% | 49% | 53% | 10/17, 141 yd, 1 TD |
| Justin HerbertQB · Starter QB | 23.3 | −3.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 26/34, 279 yd, 3 TD · 4 car, 1 yd |
| DeAndre CarterWR · Rotational Receiver | 15.4 | +5.4 | 37% | 40% | 12% | 32% | 3/4, 64 yd, 1 TD |
| Gerald EverettTE · Rotational Receiver | 14.4 | +3.7 | 66% | 74% | 12% | 13% | 3/4, 54 yd, 1 TD |
| Derek CarrQB · Starter QB | 13.8 | −8.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/37, 295 yd, 2 TD, 3 INT |
| Darren WallerTE · Rotational Receiver | 11.9 | −0.8 | 84% | 84% | 17% | 25% | 4/6, 79 yd |
| Austin EkelerRB · Committee Back | 11.2 | −1.8 | 49% | 46% | 12% | 0% | 14 car, 36 yd · 4/4, 36 yd |
| Brandon BoldenRB | 10.8 | +4.2 | 28% | 30% | 6% | 4% | 3 car, 7 yd · 2/2, 21 yd, 1 TD |
| Keenan AllenWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.6 | +3.3 | 33% | 37% | 12% | 22% | 4/4, 66 yd |
| Zander HorvathRB | 8.8 | +2.6 | 22% | 20% | 6% | 2% | 1 car, 2 yd · 2/2, 6 yd, 1 TD |
| Josh JacobsRB · Bell Cow Back | 8.3 | 0.0 | 60% | 55% | 3% | 0% | 10 car, 57 yd · 1/1, 16 yd |
| Joshua KelleyRB | 5.5 | +0.1 | 27% | 29% | 6% | 3% | 4 car, 21 yd · 2/2, 14 yd |
| Tre' McKittyTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.4 | −2.6 | 60% | 49% | 12% | 6% | 3/4, 24 yd |
| Hunter RenfrowWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.1 | −5.0 | 83% | 86% | 17% | 9% | 3/6, 21 yd |
| Josh PalmerWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | −3.0 | 75% | 74% | 12% | 5% | 1 car, 4 yd · 3/4, 5 yd |
| Mike WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | −3.5 | 93% | 91% | 12% | 6% | 2/4, 10 yd |
| Mack HollinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | +0.6 | 88% | 89% | 3% | 5% | 1/1, 16 yd |
| Sony MichelRB | 1.2 | −2.5 | 24% | 26% | 0% | — | 7 car, 12 yd |
| Jakob JohnsonRB | 1.1 | −0.4 | 14% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 1 yd |
| Richard RodgersTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.8 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jalen GuytonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.3 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ameer AbdullahRB | 0.0 | −1.8 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(10:53) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 7-G.Everett to LV 26 for 25 yards (30-D.Harmon) [55-C.Jones].
Q1 10:53 · Chargers · 3rd & 8 at LAC 49 · gained 25 · +3.04 EP · +11.9% win probability
153 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 163 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, manual charting on 137. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 75 yards from the LV 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
How the play was built
Play action, no huddle, a man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, from outside the pocket.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Raiders0
Chargers3How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Raiders3Chargers3Raiders3Chargers9Raiders3Chargers10Raiders3Chargers16Raiders3Chargers17Raiders9Chargers17Raiders10Chargers17Raiders10Chargers23Raiders10Chargers24Raiders13Chargers24Raiders19Chargers24Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Raiders at Chargers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 22/37 | 295 | 2 | 3 | 5 | −5.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 10 | 57 | 5.7 | 0 | +1.4 |
| Brandon Bolden | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 | −2.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 10 | 17 | 141 | 1 | 49% | +5.2 |
| Darren Waller | 4 | 6 | 79 | 0 | 17% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnathan Abram | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Hobbs | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Maxx Crosby |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 26/34 | 279 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +14.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_01_LV_LAC
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chargers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 5.
Total closed 52.5; the game landed 43 — under by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| +0.0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 2 | 2 | 21 | 1 | 6% | +2.5 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 3 | 6 | 21 | 0 | 17% | −4.6 |
| Josh Jacobs | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 3% | +0.9 |
| Mack Hollins | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 3% | +2.4 |
| Jakob Johnson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Rock Ya-Sin | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Divine Deablo | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roderic Teamer | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denzel Perryman | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Billings | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jayon Brown | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chandler Jones | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 14 | 36 | 2.6 | 0 | −7.6 |
| Joshua Kelley | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Sony Michel | 7 | 12 | 1.7 | 0 | −1.9 |
| Josh Palmer | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Zander Horvath | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Justin Herbert | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 | −4.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 4 | 4 | 66 | 0 | 12% | +4.3 |
| DeAndre Carter | 3 | 4 | 64 | 1 | 12% | +4.7 |
| Gerald Everett | 3 | 4 | 54 | 1 | 12% | +5.9 |
| Austin Ekeler | 4 | 4 | 36 | 0 | 12% | +4.0 |
| Tre' McKitty | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 12% | −0.1 |
| Joshua Kelley | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 6% | +1.1 |
| Mike Williams | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 12% | −2.6 |
| Zander Horvath | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 6% | +1.2 |
| Josh Palmer | 3 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 12% | −1.9 |
| Jalen Guyton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.3 |
| Richard Rodgers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derwin James | 6 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Drue Tranquill | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Khalil Mack | 4 | 1 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryce Callahan | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Nasir Adderley | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenneth Murray | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Asante Samuel | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Kyle Van Noy | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Morgan Fox | 0 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Joey Bosa | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
