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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:37 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 11, 2022 · Hard Rock Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 1
It turned at Q2 7:40, 2nd and 10, on Mac Jones — 13.8 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 7:40 · 2nd and 10
Mac Jones
Dolphins
(7:40) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones sacked at NE 6 for -9 yards (29-Br.Jones). FUMBLES (29-Br.Jones) [29-Br.Jones], RECOVERED by MIA-6-M.Ingram at NE 2. 6-M.Ingram for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Miami Dolphins 20–7. Biggest swing: Q2 7:40, Dolphins +13.8% win probability on one snap.
13.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Dolphins at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Dolphins won this one — no giveaways, against Patriots at 3 giveaways.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Dolphins won this one — +0.16 expected points per dropback, against Patriots at -0.28 expected points per dropback.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Dolphins won this one — +0.04 expected points per snap, against Patriots at -0.25 expected points per snap.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market saw this game the same way — never more than 5 points apart.
(7:40) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones sacked at NE 6 for -9 yards (29-Br.Jones). FUMBLES (29-Br.Jones) [29-Br.Jones], RECOVERED by MIA-6-M.Ingram at NE 2. 6-M.Ingram for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jason Sanders's 43-yard field goal with 4:10 left in the 1st put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Jason Sanders43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap B.FergusonLead never changed again+30–35 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Patriotscategory by categoryDolphins
Dolphins ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Patriots, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 53 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 57 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 1, Dolphins 3.
Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.25.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
MIA's pass rate over expected, +13.2 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 3.0 points clear of the next team along.
57 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.9 points.
NE's play-action rate, 6.1%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 2.6 points clear of the next team along.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 25 pts
Over Expected room →Patriots-3.9 ptsright on their number · −2.7 vs their -1.3 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.39× that swing) · 53 snaps
Dolphins13.2 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +11.1 vs their 2.1 pts, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+1.24× that swing) · 57 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 32% to 81%
Tendencies room →Patriots58.1%right on their number · +1.9 vs their 56.3%, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (+0.20× that swing) · 43 early downs
Dolphins54.8%right on their number · −2.9 vs their 57.7%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−0.32× that swing) · 42 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -11% to 67%
Tendencies room →Patriots6.1%leaned — dropped back clean · −12.0 vs their 18.0%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (−1.13× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Dolphins38.9%inside their normal wobble · +6.9 vs their 32.0%, and they swing ±13.7 week to week (+0.51× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -47% to 91%
Fourth Down room →Patriots—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 21.7%.
Dolphins0.0%leaned — took the kick · −31.9 vs their 31.9%, and they swing ±22.5 week to week (−1.42× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 69%
Tendencies room →Patriots22.2%right on their number · −4.0 vs their 26.3%, and they swing ±12.6 week to week (−0.32× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Dolphins18.2%inside their normal wobble · −13.5 vs their 31.7%, and they swing ±14.5 week to week (−0.93× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 32%
Tendencies room →Patriots19.4%inside their normal wobble · +5.2 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.78× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Dolphins9.1%inside their normal wobble · −4.5 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.63× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
MIA's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 31.9 points below their season mean of 31.9% and 1.4 times their own 22.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIA
23/33, 270 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
5.9 expected points added · +8.0% completion over expected
Passing · NE
21/30, 213 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-4.5 expected points added · +2.9% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Jaylen Waddle banked 8.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek HillWR · Alpha Receiver | 18.0 | −3.1 | 67% | 83% | 39% | 40% | 1 car, 6 yd · 8/12, 94 yd |
| Jaylen WaddleWR · Rotational Receiver | 17.7 | +8.3 | 67% | 75% | 16% | 19% | 1 car, 8 yd · 4/5, 69 yd, 1 TD |
| Tua TagovailoaQB · Starter QB | 14.8 | +1.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/33, 270 yd, 1 TD · 2 car, 0 yd |
| Chase EdmondsRB · Committee Back | 10.5 | −1.8 | 63% | 69% | 13% | 6% | 12 car, 25 yd · 4/4, 40 yd |
| Ty MontgomeryWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.3 | +3.4 | 37% | 45% | 13% | 5% | 2 car, -2 yd · 3/4, 15 yd, 1 TD |
| Jakobi MeyersWR · Featured Receiver | 10.2 | +0.3 | 88% | 91% | 20% | 32% | 1 car, 7 yd · 4/6, 55 yd |
| Mac JonesQB · Starter QB | 8.5 | −3.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/30, 213 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, 0 yd |
| Damien HarrisRB · Committee Back | 7.8 | −2.1 | 39% | 33% | 10% | 1% | 9 car, 48 yd · 2/3, 10 yd |
| Jonnu SmithTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.3 | 0.0 | 68% | 55% | 13% | 9% | 3/4, 33 yd |
| Kendrick BourneWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.1 | +3.6 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Cedrick WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.8 | +0.5 | 47% | 44% | 6% | 6% | 1 car, 8 yd · 2/2, 20 yd |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB | 4.7 | −2.0 | 25% | 18% | 7% | 0% | 8 car, 25 yd · 2/2, 2 yd |
| Raheem MostertRB | 4.2 | +0.3 | 42% | 36% | 3% | 1% | 5 car, 16 yd · 1/1, 16 yd |
| Hunter HenryTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | −1.2 | 77% | 85% | 10% | 14% | 2/3, 20 yd |
| Nelson AgholorWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.8 | −3.6 | 58% | 52% | 17% | 19% | 3/5, 28 yd |
| Durham SmytheTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | −0.6 | 63% | 58% | 6% | 4% | 1/2, 14 yd |
| Alec IngoldRB | 2.0 | −2.0 | 37% | 31% | 6% | 10% | 1 car, 2 yd · 1/2, 8 yd |
| DeVante ParkerWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −2.4 | 100% | 97% | 7% | 9% | 1/2, 9 yd |
| Trent SherfieldWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | −4.0 | 35% | 31% | 6% | 8% | 1/2, 8 yd |
| Mike GesickiTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.1 | −0.4 | 42% | 53% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 1 yd |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(10:05) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right intended for 1-D.Parker INTERCEPTED by 8-J.Holland (25-X.Howard) at MIA -3. 8-J.Holland to MIA 28 for 31 yards (76-I.Wynn).
Q1 10:05 · Patriots · 1st & 10 at MIA 22 · gained nothing · -6.00 EP · −18.0% win probability
140 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 152 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 152 snaps, manual charting on 130. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
4 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 92 yards from the MIA 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
152 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
152 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
Patriots0
Dolphins3How the play was built
A screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Patriots0Dolphins9Patriots0Dolphins10Patriots0Dolphins16Patriots0Dolphins17Patriots6Dolphins17Patriots7Dolphins17Patriots7Dolphins20Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Patriots at Dolphins, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 21/30 | 213 | 1 | 1 | 2 | −4.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Harris | 9 | 48 | 5.3 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 8 | 25 | 3.1 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers | 4 | 6 | 55 | 0 | 20% | +4.0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 1 | 41 | 0 | 3% | +2.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Whaun Bentley | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Dugger | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin McCourty | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Raekwon McMillan |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 23/33 | 270 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +5.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Edmonds |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_01_NE_MIA
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Dolphins closed -3 and covered, winning by 13.
Total closed 47; the game landed 27 — under by 20.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Mac Jones | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Ty Montgomery | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | −3.1 |
| Jonnu Smith | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 13% | +1.9 |
| Nelson Agholor | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 17% | −1.8 |
| Hunter Henry | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 10% | −2.4 |
| Ty Montgomery | 3 | 4 | 15 | 1 | 13% | +2.2 |
| Damien Harris | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 10% | −0.3 |
| DeVante Parker | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 7% | −5.3 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7% | −1.3 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Matt Judon | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Bryant | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deatrich Wise | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mack Wilson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Phillips | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Jones | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 |
| 25 |
| 2.1 |
| 0 |
| −4.9 |
| Raheem Mostert | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Alec Ingold | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −4.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 8 | 12 | 94 | 0 | 39% | +0.8 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 4 | 5 | 69 | 1 | 16% | +8.5 |
| Chase Edmonds | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 13% | +4.4 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 6% | −0.1 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 3% | +0.9 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 6% | +0.4 |
| Alec Ingold | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 6% | −0.9 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 6% | +0.1 |
| Mike Gesicki | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jones | 4 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jerome Baker | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Wilkins | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elandon Roberts | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Duke Riley | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jevon Holland | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Nik Needham | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kader Kohou | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Melvin Ingram | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavien Howard | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
