2022 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 11, 2022 · Hard Rock Stadium

New England Patriots

Miami DolphinsWinner

MIA -3 ✓U 47 ✓Dolphins closed -3 and covered, winning by 13.

Miami Dolphins 20–7. Biggest swing: Q2 7:40, NE +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 7:40NE 0 — MIA 9NE ball · 2nd & 10MIA 71%

(7:40) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones sacked at NE 6 for -9 yards (29-Br.Jones). FUMBLES (29-Br.Jones) [29-Br.Jones], RECOVERED by MIA-6-M.Ingram at NE 2. 6-M.Ingram for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 7:40NE +14% win prob(7:40) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones sacked at NE 6 for -9 yards (29-Br.Jones). FUMBLES (29-Br.Jones) [29-Br.Jones], RECOVERED by MIA-6-M.Ingram at NE 2. 6-M.Ingram for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 10:05NE +13% win prob(10:05) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right intended for 1-D.Parker INTERCEPTED by 8-J.Holland (25-X.Howard) at MIA -3. 8-J.Holland to MIA 28 for 31 yards (76-I.Wynn).
Q1 · 1:27MIA +7% win prob(1:27) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 15-N.Agholor pushed ob at MIA 40 for 17 yards (29-Br.Jones).
Q1 · 6:48MIA +6% win prob(6:48) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 10-T.Hill to NE 22 for 23 yards (31-Jo.Jones). FUMBLES (31-Jo.Jones), ball out of bounds at NE 22.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 4:10MIA Field goal
(4:10) 7-J.Sanders 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: NE 0 — MIA 3
Q2 · 7:40MIA Touchdown
(7:40) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones sacked at NE 6 for -9 yards (29-Br.Jones). FUMBLES (29-Br.Jones) [29-Br.Jones], RECOVERED by MIA-6-M.Ingram at NE 2. 6-M.Ingram for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 0 — MIA 10
Q2 · 0:24MIA Touchdown
(:24) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 17-J.Waddle for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 0 — MIA 17
Q3 · 4:50NE Touchdown
(4:50) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 14-T.Montgomery for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 7 — MIA 17
Q3 · 0:24MIA Field goal
(:24) 7-J.Sanders 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: NE 7 — MIA 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Dolphins
Offensive plays	53	57
Total yards	273	307 (edge)
Yards per play	5.2	5.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.25	0.04 (edge)
Success rate	45%	47% (edge)
Dropback rate	62%	63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.28	0.16 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.19	-0.17 (edge)
Third downs	4/9 (edge)	6/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	15	16 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.25.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

23/33, 270 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

5.9 expected points added · +8.0% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Mac JonesQB

21/30, 213 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-4.5 expected points added · +2.9% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Damien HarrisRB

9 att, 48 yds, 0 TD

-0.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

Chase EdmondsRB

12 att, 25 yds, 0 TD

-4.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Tyreek HillWR

8/12 for 94 yds, 0 TD

39% of team targets · 0.8 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

Jaylen WaddleWR

4/5 for 69 yds, 1 TD

16% of team targets · 8.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 25	9	53	5:08	Interception
2	MIA	MIA 28	11	42	5:47	Field goal +3
3	NE	NE 25	10	40	4:58	Punt
4	MIA	MIA 6	11	45	6:22	Punt
5	NE	NE 15	2	-13	0:11	Defensive touchdown
6	NE	NE 26	8	30	3:29	Punt
7	MIA	MIA 8	11	97	3:47	Touchdown +7
8	NE	NE 25	2	0	0:18	End of half
9	MIA	MIA 26	5	8	1:55	Punt
10	NE	NE 8	16	82	8:21	Touchdown +7
11	MIA	MIA 19	9	50	4:25	Field goal +3
12	NE	NE 25	7	17	2:32	Punt
13	MIA	MIA 10	4	9	1:40	Punt
14	NE	NE 43	4	7	1:29	Turnover on downs
15	MIA	50	7	9	3:39	Punt
16	NE	NE 5	5	57	1:04	Fumble
17	MIA	MIA 37	10	47	4:55	End of game

4 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 97 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mac Jones	21/30	213	1	1	2	-4.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Damien Harris	9	48	5.3	-0.1
Rhamondre Stevenson	8	25	3.1	-1.1
Jakobi Meyers	1	7	7.0	0.5
Mac Jones	2	0	0.0	-0.9
Ty Montgomery	2	-2	-1.0	-3.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jakobi Meyers	4	6	55	0	20%	4.0
Kendrick Bourne	1	1	41	0	3%	2.7
Jonnu Smith	3	4	33	0	13%	1.9
Nelson Agholor	3	5	28	0	17%	-1.8
Hunter Henry	2	3	20	0	10%	-2.4
Ty Montgomery	3	4	15	1	13%	2.2
Damien Harris	2	3	10	0	10%	-0.3
DeVante Parker	1	2	9	0	7%	-5.3
Rhamondre Stevenson	2	2	2	0	7%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Ja'Whaun Bentley	3	3	1.0
Kyle Dugger	5	1	0.0
Devin McCourty	6	0	0.0
Raekwon McMillan	4	1	0.0
Matt Judon	2	3	1.0
Myles Bryant	3	1	0.0
Deatrich Wise	2	1	1.0
Mack Wilson	1	2	0.0
Adrian Phillips	2	1	0.0
Jonathan Jones	2	1	0.0

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tua Tagovailoa	23/33	270	1	0	3	5.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Chase Edmonds	12	25	2.1	-4.9
Raheem Mostert	5	16	3.2	-0.6
Jaylen Waddle	1	8	8.0	0.6
Cedrick Wilson	1	8	8.0	0.5
Tyreek Hill	1	6	6.0	0.2
Alec Ingold	1	2	2.0	0.5
Tua Tagovailoa	2	0	0.0	-4.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyreek Hill	8	12	94	0	39%	0.8
Jaylen Waddle	4	5	69	1	16%	8.5
Chase Edmonds	4	4	40	0	13%	4.4
Cedrick Wilson	2	2	20	0	6%	-0.1
Raheem Mostert	1	1	16	0	3%	0.9
Durham Smythe	1	2	14	0	6%	0.4
Alec Ingold	1	2	8	0	6%	-0.9
Trent Sherfield	1	2	8	0	6%	0.1
Mike Gesicki	1	1	1	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Brandon Jones	4	5	1.0	0	1
Jerome Baker	3	2	0.0	0	0
Christian Wilkins	2	2	0.0	0	0
Elandon Roberts	2	2	0.0	0	0
Duke Riley	3	1	0.0	0	1
Jevon Holland	3	0	0.0	1	1
Nik Needham	2	0	0.0	0	0
Kader Kohou	2	0	0.0	0	1
Melvin Ingram	2	0	0.0	0	0
Xavien Howard	2	0	0.0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIA -3
Closing total: 47
NE moneyline: +140
MIA moneyline: -155

Dolphins closed -3 and covered, winning by 13.

Total closed 47; the game landed 27 — under by 20.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: NE 7 days · MIA 7 days
Coaches: Bill Belichick vs Mike McDaniel

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.