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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 11, 2022 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 1
It turned at Q4 0:02, 1st and 10, on Younghoe Koo — 34.0 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:02 · 1st and 10
Younghoe Koo
Saints
(:02) 7-Y.Koo 63 yard field goal is BLOCKED (98-P.Turner), Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion, recovered by ATL-13-B.Pinion at ATL 49. 13-B.Pinion to 50 for 1 yard (53-Z.Baun, 48-J.Gray).
New Orleans Saints 27–26 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:02, Saints +34.0% win probability on one snap.
34.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Saints won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Falcons at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Saints won this one — +0.38 expected points per carry, against Falcons at +0.01 expected points per carry.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 13 on third down, against Saints at 4 of 12 on third down.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Saints won this one — 1 giveaway, against Falcons at 2 giveaways.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 15.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
(:02) 7-Y.Koo 63 yard field goal is BLOCKED (98-P.Turner), Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion, recovered by ATL-13-B.Pinion at ATL 49. 13-B.Pinion to 50 for 1 yard (53-Z.Baun, 48-J.Gray).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Wil Lutz's 51-yard field goal with 0:23 left in the 4th put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Michael Thomas3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Jameis Winston · two-point good+818–26Michael Thomas9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Jameis Winston · two-point no good+624–26
Wil Lutz51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap Z.WoodLead never changed again+327–2611 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Saintscategory by categoryFalcons
Falcons ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 57 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Falcons’s 70 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Saints 3, Falcons 4.
Falcons outgained Saints 416-387 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NO's sack or hit rate, 2.7%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 2.6 points clear of the next team along.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.0 points.
ATL's pass rate over expected, −2.3 pts, sat 11.7 points above their season number of −13.9 pts — they threw more than the situation asked by 2.1 times their own 5.5-point weekly swing.
70 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Saints-0.9 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.9 vs their -6.8 pts, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (+0.61× that swing) · 55 snaps
Falcons-2.3 ptsoff script — threw more than the situation asked · +11.7 vs their -13.9 pts, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+2.11× that swing) · 70 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 11% to 89%
Tendencies room →Saints65.1%inside their normal wobble · +15.1 vs their 50.1%, and they swing ±15.3 week to week (+0.99× that swing) · 43 early downs
Falcons49.1%inside their normal wobble · +6.4 vs their 42.7%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+0.79× that swing) · 57 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 65%
Tendencies room →Saints10.5%right on their number · −3.0 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Falcons13.5%leaned — dropped back clean · −22.1 vs their 35.6%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (−1.96× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -38% to 88%
Fourth Down room →Saints0.0%inside their normal wobble · −14.2 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±14.3 week to week (−1.00× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Falcons0.0%leaned — took the kick · −24.9 vs their 24.9%, and they swing ±24.8 week to week (−1.00× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16% to 58%
Tendencies room →Saints2.7%leaned — sat back · −15.5 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±13.4 week to week (−1.16× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Falcons39.5%leaned — sent pressure · +16.1 vs their 23.3%, and they swing ±13.3 week to week (+1.22× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 26%
Tendencies room →Saints2.7%off script — stayed blocked · −10.1 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−2.02× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Falcons17.9%leaned — got home · +7.1 vs their 10.9%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+1.41× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
ATL's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -2.3 pts, 11.7 points above their season mean of -13.9 pts and 2.1 times their own 5.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · NO
23/34, 269 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
2.3 expected points added · +7.2% completion over expected
Passing · ATL
20/33, 215 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
5.0 expected points added · -6.9% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Taysom Hill banked 10.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael ThomasWR · Alpha Receiver | 22.7 | +6.2 | 61% | 78% | 25% | 30% | 5/8, 57 yd, 2 TD |
| Cordarrelle PattersonRB · Committee Back | 22.6 | +3.2 | 65% | 45% | 16% | 6% | 22 car, 120 yd, 1 TD · 3/5, 16 yd |
| Jameis WinstonQB · Starter QB | 21.7 | +4.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/34, 269 yd, 2 TD · 2 car, 9 yd |
| Marcus MariotaQB · Starter QB | 19.8 | −5.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/33, 215 yd · 12 car, 72 yd, 1 TD |
| Jarvis LandryWR · Alpha Receiver | 18.4 | +4.0 | 72% | 78% | 28% | 42% | 7/9, 114 yd |
| Taysom HillQB | 15.3 | +10.6 | 26% | — | 3% | 1% | 4 car, 81 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 2 yd |
| Drake LondonWR · Featured Receiver | 12.4 | +0.4 | 72% | 71% | 22% | 31% | 5/7, 74 yd |
| Chris OlaveWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.1 | +3.7 | 74% | 80% | 9% | 13% | 3/3, 41 yd |
| Alvin KamaraRB · Committee Back | 7.6 | −2.6 | 62% | 63% | 13% | 0% | 9 car, 39 yd · 3/4, 7 yd |
| Olamide ZaccheausWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.9 | 0.0 | 60% | 53% | 13% | 14% | 4/4, 49 yd |
| KhaDarel HodgeWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.8 | +1.5 | 27% | 16% | 9% | 9% | 3/3, 38 yd |
| Juwan JohnsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.3 | −3.9 | 74% | 76% | 16% | 19% | 2/5, 43 yd |
| Kyle PittsTE · Featured Receiver | 3.9 | −8.4 | 84% | 79% | 22% | 33% | 2/7, 19 yd |
| Avery WilliamsRB | 2.5 | +0.1 | 31% | 42% | 3% | 0% | 2 car, 7 yd · 1/1, 8 yd |
| Anthony FirkserTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −2.0 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Parker HesseTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −2.5 | 64% | 50% | 6% | 3% | 1/2, 5 yd |
| Deonte HartyWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Mark IngramRB | 1.3 | −2.4 | 33% | 29% | 3% | 0% | 4 car, 22 yd · 1/1, 1 yd |
| Damien WilliamsRB | 0.2 | −0.8 | 13% | 13% | 0% | — | 2 car, 2 yd |
| Bryan EdwardsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.0 | 47% | 42% | 3% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:02) 7-Y.Koo 63 yard field goal is BLOCKED (98-P.Turner), Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion, recovered by ATL-13-B.Pinion at ATL 49. 13-B.Pinion to 50 for 1 yard (53-Z.Baun, 48-J.Gray).
Q4 0:02 · Falcons · 1st & 10 at NO 45 · gained nothing · -1.44 EP · −45.5% win probability
173 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 189 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 189 snaps, manual charting on 156. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
11 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 86 yards from the NO 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
189 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
189 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Saints0
Falcons3How the play was built
A man in motion.
Saints6Falcons3Saints7Falcons3How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
Saints7Falcons9Saints7Falcons10Saints7Falcons13Saints7Falcons16Saints10Falcons16Saints10Falcons22Saints10Falcons23Saints10Falcons26Saints16Falcons26Saints18Falcons26How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Saints24Falcons26How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Saints27Falcons26How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Saints at Falcons, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 23/34 | 269 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +2.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taysom Hill | 4 | 81 | 20.3 | 1 | +7.0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 9 | 39 | 4.3 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Mark Ingram | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 7 | 9 | 114 | 0 | 28% | +4.5 |
| Michael Thomas | 5 | 8 | 57 | 2 | 25% | +4.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Werner | 12 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Maye | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrann Mathieu | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bradley Roby |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 20/33 | 215 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +5.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cordarrelle Patterson |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_01_NO_ATL
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Saints closed -6, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 53 — over by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Jameis Winston | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 2 | 5 | 43 | 0 | 16% | +0.1 |
| Chris Olave | 3 | 3 | 41 | 0 | 9% | +4.7 |
| Alvin Kamara | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 13% | −2.3 |
| Deonte Harty | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | +0.4 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| Mark Ingram | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3% | −4.8 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Demario Davis | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Jordan | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marshon Lattimore | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kentavius Street | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kaden Elliss | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| P.J. Williams | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 |
| 120 |
| 5.5 |
| 1 |
| +2.4 |
| Marcus Mariota | 12 | 72 | 6.0 | 1 | −1.7 |
| Avery Williams | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Damien Williams | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 5 | 7 | 74 | 0 | 22% | +4.1 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 4 | 4 | 49 | 0 | 13% | −3.3 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 | 9% | +1.7 |
| Kyle Pitts | 2 | 7 | 19 | 0 | 22% | −1.6 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 3 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 16% | −0.3 |
| Avery Williams | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +0.6 |
| Anthony Firkser | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6% | −1.8 |
| Parker Hesse | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 6% | +0.7 |
| Bryan Edwards | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richie Grant | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mykal Walker | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grady Jarrett | 3 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashaan Evans | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Terrell | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylinn Hawkins | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Adetokunbo Ogundeji | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Casey Hayward | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Ford | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dee Alford | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
