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2022 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 11, 2022 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

New Orleans SaintsWinner

27

Atlanta Falcons

26

NO -6 no coverO 43.5 ✓Dome

New Orleans Saints 27–26 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:02, NO +34% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3ATL ↑NO ↓
Q4 · 0:02NO 27 — ATL 26ATL ball · 1st & 10NO 66%

(:02) 7-Y.Koo 63 yard field goal is BLOCKED (98-P.Turner), Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion, recovered by ATL-13-B.Pinion at ATL 49. 13-B.Pinion to 50 for 1 yard (53-Z.Baun, 48-J.Gray).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:02NO +34% win prob(:02) 7-Y.Koo 63 yard field goal is BLOCKED (98-P.Turner), Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion, recovered by ATL-13-B.Pinion at ATL 49. 13-B.Pinion to 50 for 1 yard (53-Z.Baun, 48-J.Gray).
  2. Q4 · 0:48ATL +31% win prob(:48) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass deep left to 5-J.Landry ran ob at ATL 40 for 40 yards (27-R.Grant).
  3. Q4 · 0:23ATL +29% win prob(:23) 3-W.Lutz 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.
  4. Q4 · 0:38NO +27% win prob(:38) (No Huddle) 2-J.Winston spiked the ball to stop the clock. PENALTY on NO-2-J.Winston, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 40.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:44ATL Field goal

    (10:44) 7-Y.Koo 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: NO 0 — ATL 3
  2. Q1 · 5:51NO Touchdown

    (5:51) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill right end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NO 7 — ATL 3
  3. Q2 · 12:17ATL Touchdown

    (12:17) 84-C.Patterson up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NO 7 — ATL 10
  4. Q2 · 1:10ATL Field goal

    (1:10) 7-Y.Koo 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: NO 7 — ATL 13
  5. Q2 · 0:03ATL Field goal

    (:03) 7-Y.Koo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: NO 7 — ATL 16
  6. Q3 · 9:20NO Field goal

    (9:20) 3-W.Lutz 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

    Score after this play: NO 10 — ATL 16
  7. Q3 · 6:52ATL Touchdown

    (6:52) 66-C.Gossett reported in as eligible. 1-M.Mariota up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NO 10 — ATL 23
  8. Q4 · 12:45ATL Field goal

    (12:45) 7-Y.Koo 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: NO 10 — ATL 26
  9. Q4 · 11:16NO Touchdown

    (11:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass short left to 13-M.Thomas for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: NO 18 — ATL 26
  10. Q4 · 3:42NO Touchdown

    (3:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass short left to 13-M.Thomas for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: NO 24 — ATL 26
  11. Q4 · 0:23NO Field goal

    (:23) 3-W.Lutz 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

    Score after this play: NO 27 — ATL 26

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricSaintsFalcons
Offensive plays5770
Total yards387416 (edge)
Yards per play6.8 (edge)5.9
Expected points added / play0.12 (edge)-0.02
Success rate51%51% (edge)
Dropback rate68%53%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.01 (edge)-0.05
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.38 (edge)0.01
Third downs4/126/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)9 (edge)8
First downs gained on snaps1923 (edge)
Sacks taken40 (edge)
Turnovers1 (edge)2

Falcons outgained Saints 416–387 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Jameis WinstonQB

23/34, 269 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

2.3 expected points added · +7.2% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Marcus MariotaQB

20/33, 215 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

5.0 expected points added · -6.9% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Cordarrelle PattersonRB

22 att, 120 yds, 1 TD

2.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Marcus MariotaQB

12 att, 72 yds, 1 TD

-1.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Jarvis LandryWR

7/9 for 114 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 4.5 expected points added

Receiving · ATL

Drake LondonWR

5/7 for 74 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 4.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1ATLATL 2511404:20Field goal +3
2NONO 25571:27Punt
3ATLATL 21451:27Punt
4NONO 236772:02Touchdown +7
5ATLATL 252220:11Fumble
6NOATL 437172:51Missed field goal
7ATLATL 3410615:30Touchdown +7
8NONO 25571:57Punt
9ATLATL 216283:30Punt
10NONO 22532:58Punt
11ATLATL 187352:41Field goal +3
12NONO 255-70:43Punt
13ATLATL 394390:23Field goal +3
14NONO 2512445:45Field goal +3
15ATLATL 257362:26Touchdown +7
16NONO 255201:38Fumble
17ATLNO 365312:00Fumble
18NONO 5441:30Punt
19ATL509514:00Field goal +3
20NONO 256771:29Touchdown +8
21ATLATL 258254:07Punt
22NONO 149813:27Touchdown +6
23ATLATL 259282:50Punt
24NONO 205570:29Field goal +3
25ATLATL 256150:19Missed field goal

11 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 81 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jameis Winston23/342692042.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Taysom Hill48120.317.0
Alvin Kamara9394.30-1.5
Mark Ingram4225.501.3
Jameis Winston294.50-1.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jarvis Landry79114028%4.5
Michael Thomas5857225%4.8
Juwan Johnson2543016%0.1
Chris Olave334109%4.7
Alvin Kamara347013%-2.3
Deonte Harty11403%0.4
Taysom Hill11203%-0.3
Mark Ingram11103%-4.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Pete Werner1210.000
Marcus Maye510.000
Tyrann Mathieu420.000
Bradley Roby500.001
Demario Davis410.000
Cameron Jordan320.000
Marshon Lattimore210.000
Kentavius Street120.000
Kaden Elliss210.000
P.J. Williams200.000

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Marcus Mariota20/332150005.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Cordarrelle Patterson221205.512.4
Marcus Mariota12726.01-1.7
Avery Williams273.50-0.2
Damien Williams221.00-1.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Drake London5774022%4.1
Olamide Zaccheaus4449013%-3.3
KhaDarel Hodge333809%1.7
Kyle Pitts2719022%-1.6
Cordarrelle Patterson3516016%-0.3
Avery Williams11803%0.6
Anthony Firkser12606%-1.8
Parker Hesse12506%0.7
Bryan Edwards01003%-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Richie Grant460.001
Mykal Walker421.000
Grady Jarrett331.500
Rashaan Evans330.000
A.J. Terrell310.000
Jaylinn Hawkins310.001
Adetokunbo Ogundeji120.000
Casey Hayward120.000
Mike Ford120.000
Dee Alford200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
NO -6
Closing total
43.5
NO moneyline
-228
ATL moneyline
+201

Saints closed -6, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 53 — over by 9.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
NO 7 days · ATL 7 days
Coaches
Dennis Allen vs Arthur Smith

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.