For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Giants160 of 170 plays carry both curves
(:04) 14-R.Bullock 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
Swing −53.1 for TitansExpected points −2.17 for TitansModel and market agree here.play 169
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:04NYG +53% win prob(:04) 14-R.Bullock 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
3rd · 8:58TEN +21% win prob(8:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep left to 3-S.Shepard for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:06TEN +21% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-D.Jones pass to 26-S.Barkley is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
4th · 10:38TEN +14% win prob(10:38) 6-J.Gillan punts 43 yards to TEN 12, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 18-K.Philips MUFFS catch, touched at TEN 13, RECOVERED by NYG-27-J.Pinnock at TEN 11.
3rd · 3:00TEN +12% win prob(3:00) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 40-D.Hilliard for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-D.Lawrence].
4th · 8:55NYG +12% win prob(8:55) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left intended for 26-S.Barkley INTERCEPTED by 37-A.Hooker at TEN -4. Touchback.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chris Myarick's 1-yard touchdown catch with 1:09 left in the 4th put New York Giants ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st9:52Dontrell Hilliard·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Tannehillfrom Ryan Tannehill+70–7
2nd12:39Randy Bullock·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder R.Stonehouse · snap M.Cox+30–10
2nd7:00Randy Bullock·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder R.Stonehouse · snap M.Cox+30–13
3rd11:20Saquon Barkley·4-yd TD run4-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+66–13
3rd8:58Sterling Shepard·65-yd TD catch65-yard touchdown catchfrom Daniel Jonesfrom Daniel Jones+713–13
3rd3:00Dontrell Hilliard·23-yd TD catch23-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Tannehillfrom Ryan Tannehill+713–20
4th1:09Chris Myarick·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Daniel Jonesfrom Daniel Jones · two-point goodLead never changed again+821–20
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Giantscategory by categoryTitans
Giants5–4Titans
396Total yards359
6.6Yards per play6.1
45%Success rate42%
20%Third-down rate27%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
7Explosive plays8
20First downs15
5Sacks taken1
2Turnovers0
The read
Giants ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Titans, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.02Giants: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.03Titans: +0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.21Giants: −0.21 expected points added per play
+0.28Titans: +0.28 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.26Giants: +0.26 expected points added per play
−0.31Titans: −0.31 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 60 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Titans’s 59 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Giants 4, Titans 3.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NYG's play-action rate, 46.7%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 4.2 points clear of the next team along.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · −2.1 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Titans25.8%
leaned — got home · +11.9 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+1.49× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
NoteNYG's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 46.7%, 22.0 points above their season mean of 24.7% and 1.8 times their own 12.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Randy Bullock−54% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:04) 14-R.Bullock 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
Q4 0:04 · Titans · 3rd & 12 at NYG 29 · gained nothing · -2.17 EP · −53.7% win probability
158 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps, manual charting on 145. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 90 yards from the NYG 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
41%
Yards
755
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49+0.1145%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.2267%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8-0.2750%
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.0617%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.0550%
Titans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.5550%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.7660%
Giants2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Giants1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Giants0 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 22 to the Giants 31
Giants0Titans6
Giants0Titans7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Giants 45 to the Giants 7
Punt9 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 41
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 18 to the Titans 23
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 40 to the Giants 46
The period ended5 plays, from the Titans 7 to the Titans 19
2nd quarter44 plays
Giants0Titans10
Field goal6 plays, from the Titans 26 to the Giants 28
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Titans 42
Giants0Titans13
Field goal8 plays, from the Giants 42 to the Giants 5
Punt7 plays, from the Giants 17 to the Giants 38
Punt8 plays, from the Titans 18 to the Giants 47
The period ended8 plays, from the Giants 9 to the Giants 38
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 24 to the Titans 33
Giants6Titans13
Touchdown5 plays, from the Giants 10 to the Titans 4
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 10 to the Titans 18
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Giants12Titans13
Giants13Titans13
Touchdown3 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Giants13Titans19
Giants13Titans20
Touchdown14 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Giants 13
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 30
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter52 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Titans 12 to the Titans 21
Punt9 plays, from the Giants 15 to the Giants 45
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Titans 11 to the Titans 8
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Titans 41
How the play was built
No huddle, a man in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Giants19Titans20
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Giants21Titans20
Touchdown15 plays, from the Giants 27 to the Titans 1
No good15 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Giants 27
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Titans -5.5
Closing total
43.5
Giants moneyline
+209
Titans moneyline
-239
Titans closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 41 — under by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 73°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the west; 0.04 in of precipitation; dense drizzle.
Referee
Jerome Boger
Rest
Giants 7 days · Titans 7 days
Coaches
Brian Daboll vs Mike Vrabel
4th · 0:23
TEN +11% win prob
(:23) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left to 18-K.Philips pushed ob at NYG 27 for 21 yards (30-D.Holmes).
4th · 4:00TEN +10% win prob(4:00) (No Huddle) 26-S.Barkley up the middle to TEN 26 for 33 yards (26-K.Fulton). FUMBLES (26-K.Fulton), ball out of bounds at TEN 11.
