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DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 1:09 AM ET · 16 to play
Philadelphia Eagles 38 at Detroit Lions 35. Final.
Eagles -6 no coverO 49 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 1
Philadelphia Eagles 38, Lions 35 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q1 7:13, 4th and 5, on Jalen Hurts — 11.6 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 7:13 · 4th and 5
Jalen Hurts
Lions
(7:13) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right to 11-A.Brown (24-A.Oruwariye).
Dome
Eagles closed -6, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Philadelphia Eagles 38–35 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q1 7:13, Lions +11.6% win probability on one snap.
11.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
D'Andre SwiftLionsQ1 14:27(14:27) 32-D.Swift left tackle to PHI 26 for 50 yards (2-D.Slay).
10.1pts
D.J. CharkLionsQ4 3:56(3:56) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 4-D.Chark for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10.6pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Eagles won this one — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Lions at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.32 expected points per dropback, against Lions at -0.01 expected points per dropback.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Eagles won this one — no giveaways, against Lions at 1 giveaway.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Eagles won this one — +0.28 expected points per snap, against Lions at +0.12 expected points per snap.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Eagles186 of 198 plays carry both curves
(7:13) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right to 11-A.Brown (24-A.Oruwariye).
Swing +11.6 for LionsExpected points +2.78 for LionsThe model had Lions 32 points higher than the market did.play 25
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 7:13PHI +12% win prob(7:13) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right to 11-A.Brown (24-A.Oruwariye).
4th · 3:56DET +11% win prob(3:56) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 4-D.Chark for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:27DET +10% win prob(14:27) 32-D.Swift left tackle to PHI 26 for 50 yards (2-D.Slay).
4th · 2:21DET +10% win prob(2:21) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders left tackle to DET 49 for 24 yards (1-J.Okudah).
2nd · 6:36PHI +9% win prob(6:36) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left intended for 88-T.Hockenson INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Bradberry (43-K.White) [95-M.Tuipulotu] at DET 27. 24-J.Bradberry for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 8:42DET +8% win prob(8:42) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles up the middle pushed ob at DET 45 for 16 yards (5-D.Elliott).
2nd · 13:00
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Miles Sanders's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 7:38 left in the 2nd put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
4th3:56D.J. Chark·22-yd TD catch22-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+738–35
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Eaglescategory by categoryLions
Eagles5–1Lions
456Total yards387
6.4Yards per play6.0
54%Success rate43%
59%Third-down rate64%
4Red-zone touchdowns4
10Explosive plays10
25First downs21
1Sacks taken1
0Turnovers1
The read
Eagles ahead 5–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.28Eagles: +0.28 expected points added per play
+0.12Lions: +0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.32Eagles: +0.32 expected points added per play
−0.01Lions: −0.01 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.21Eagles: +0.21 expected points added per play
+0.33Lions: +0.33 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 71 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Lions’s 65 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 5, Lions 5.
NoteEagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.28 expected points added per play vs 0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DET's blitz rate sent, 56.8%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 12.7 points clear of the next team along.
2.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 20 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.9 vs their 17.7%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.78× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Lions11.4%
right on their number · −3.3 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.38× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
NoteDET's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 56.8%, 23.7 points above their season mean of 33.1% and 2.1 times their own 11.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Sanders left+16% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:21) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders left tackle to DET 49 for 24 yards (1-J.Okudah).
Q4 2:21 · Eagles · 3rd & 2 at PHI 27 · gained 24 · +1.98 EP · +16.5% win probability
184 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 198 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 198 snaps, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 87 yards from the PHI 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
198 of 198 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
198
EPA per play
+0.10
Success rate
42%
Yards
841
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49+0.1967%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49+0.3655%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.0233%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.3545%
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
198 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
198 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Eagles0Lions6
Eagles0Lions7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Eagles 1
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Lions 40
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 41 to the Lions 45
The period ended12 plays, from the Eagles 18 to the Lions 25
2nd quarter66 plays
How the play was built
A run-pass option, play action, nobody in motion.
Seven rushed the passer.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldSix linemen, two linebackers and three backsIn the boxNine defenders
Eagles6Lions7
Eagles7Lions7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Lions 21 to the Lions 1
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 28
Punt6 plays, from the Eagles 29 to the Eagles 49
Punt4 plays
Eagles13Lions7
Eagles14Lions7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Eagles 34 to the Lions 1
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
Eagles20Lions7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 29
Eagles21Lions7
Eagles21Lions13
Eagles21Lions14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Eagles 7
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Eagles24Lions14
Field goal14 plays, from the Eagles 22 to the Lions 4
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter44 plays
Eagles30Lions14
Eagles31Lions14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Eagles 18 to the Lions 2
Eagles31Lions20
Eagles31Lions21
Touchdown17 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Eagles 4
Eagles37Lions21
Eagles38Lions21
Touchdown7 plays, from the Lions 49 to the Lions 1
The period ended7 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Eagles 37
4th quarter47 plays
Eagles38Lions27
Eagles38Lions28
Touchdown3 plays, from the Eagles 26 to the Eagles 1
Punt7 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 40
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Lions 45
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 17 to the Eagles 19
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Eagles38Lions34
Eagles38Lions35
Touchdown13 plays, from the Lions 28 to the Eagles 22
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
The period ended13 plays, from the Eagles 19 to the Lions 39
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
