2022 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 11, 2022 · Paycor Stadium

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

Cincinnati Bengals

CIN -7.5 upsetU 44.5 ✓Bengals closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Pittsburgh Steelers 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 1:04, CIN +84% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 1:04PIT 20 — CIN 20CIN ball · 4th & 16PIT 93%

(1:04) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-84-M.Wilcox, Touchback.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 1:04CIN +84% win prob(1:04) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-84-M.Wilcox, Touchback.
Q4 · 0:04CIN +42% win prob(:04) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
OT · 0:05CIN +41% win prob(:05) 9-C.Boswell 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
Q4 · 0:02PIT +30% win prob2-E.McPherson extra point is Blocked (39-M.Fitzpatrick), Center-84-M.Wilcox, Holder-10-K.Huber.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 12:52PIT Touchdown
(12:52) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 39-M.Fitzpatrick at CIN 31. 39-M.Fitzpatrick for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 7 — CIN 0
Q1 · 7:21CIN Field goal
(7:21) 2-E.McPherson 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
Score after this play: PIT 7 — CIN 3
Q1 · 2:28PIT Field goal
(2:28) 9-C.Boswell 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
Score after this play: PIT 10 — CIN 3
Q2 · 8:50PIT Touchdown
(8:50) 72-T.Scott reported in as eligible. 10-M.Trubisky pass short left to 22-N.Harris for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 17 — CIN 3
Q2 · 0:18CIN Field goal
(:18) 2-E.McPherson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
Score after this play: PIT 17 — CIN 6
Q3 · 4:44CIN Touchdown
(4:44) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 83-T.Boyd for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: PIT 17 — CIN 14
Q4 · 11:18PIT Field goal
(11:18) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
Score after this play: PIT 20 — CIN 14
Q4 · 0:04CIN Touchdown
(:04) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: PIT 20 — CIN 20
OT · 0:05PIT Field goal
(:05) 9-C.Boswell 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
Score after this play: PIT 23 — CIN 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Steelers	Bengals
Offensive plays	59	95
Total yards	268	434 (edge)
Yards per play	4.5	4.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.13 (edge)	-0.22
Success rate	34%	37% (edge)
Dropback rate	68%	69%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.11 (edge)	-0.21
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.19 (edge)	-0.23
Third downs	4/15	8/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	12	28 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	7
Turnovers	0 (edge)	5

Bengals outgained Steelers 434–268 but lost the turnover battle 5–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

33/53, 338 yds, 2 TD, 4 INT

-16.1 expected points added · -0.7% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Mitchell TrubiskyQB

21/38, 194 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-5.6 expected points added · -7.1% completion over expected

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

27 att, 82 yds, 0 TD

-6.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

6 att, 47 yds, 0 TD

1.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Ja'Marr ChaseWR

10/16 for 129 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · 8.6 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

Pat FreiermuthTE

5/10 for 75 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · -0.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PIT	PIT 25	5	9	1:29	Punt
2	CIN	CIN 22	2	-5	0:48	Defensive touchdown
3	CIN	CIN 25	11	34	5:26	Field goal +3
4	PIT	PIT 25	5	5	1:30	Punt
5	CIN	CIN 35	3	1	1:25	Fumble
6	PIT	CIN 34	5	32	1:57	Field goal +3
7	CIN	CIN 25	10	36	4:17	Interception
8	PIT	PIT 41	8	57	4:22	Touchdown +7
9	CIN	CIN 25	7	32	3:22	Interception
10	PIT	PIT 8	4	6	1:23	Punt
11	CIN	CIN 35	9	62	3:47	Field goal +3
12	PIT	PIT 25	2	0	0:14	End of half
13	CIN	CIN 25	5	8	2:03	Punt
14	PIT	PIT 9	7	7	2:32	Punt
15	CIN	PIT 46	10	48	5:44	Touchdown +8
16	PIT	PIT 25	8	23	4:20	Punt
17	CIN	CIN 9	4	6	2:00	Punt
18	PIT	CIN 45	7	15	2:08	Field goal +3
19	CIN	CIN 25	9	39	2:57	Interception
20	PIT	PIT 23	5	17	2:11	Punt
21	CIN	CIN 30	12	62	4:14	Turnover on downs
22	PIT	PIT 17	4	2	0:24	Punt
23	CIN	CIN 40	10	49	1:25	Touchdown +6
24	PIT	—	1	0	0:02	Turnover on downs
25	PIT	PIT 25	5	7	1:39	Punt
26	CIN	CIN 25	9	52	4:48	Missed field goal
27	PIT	PIT 20	6	43	1:11	Missed field goal
28	CIN	CIN 45	6	10	1:26	Punt
29	PIT	PIT 20	8	45	0:56	Field goal +3

8 of 29 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bengals gained 62 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mitchell Trubisky	21/38	194	1	0	1	-5.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Chase Claypool	6	36	6.0	0.9
Najee Harris	10	23	2.3	-3.2
Mitchell Trubisky	3	9	3.0	1.2
Jaylen Warren	3	7	2.3	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Pat Freiermuth	5	10	75	0	27%	-0.8
Diontae Johnson	7	12	55	0	32%	-1.5
Zach Gentry	2	2	40	0	5%	1.6
Chase Claypool	4	6	18	0	16%	-0.4
Najee Harris	2	2	3	1	5%	0.5
George Pickens	1	3	3	0	8%	-2.0
Jaylen Warren	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5
Miles Boykin	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Minkah Fitzpatrick	9	4	0.0	1	1
Myles Jack	6	4	0.0	0	1
Alex Highsmith	6	3	3.0	0	0
Ahkello Witherspoon	6	2	0.0	1	1
Terrell Edmunds	5	1	0.0	0	0
Devin Bush	2	3	0.0	0	0
T.J. Watt	4	0	1.0	1	2
Robert Spillane	2	2	1.0	0	0
Larry Ogunjobi	2	1	0.0	0	0
Chris Wormley	1	2	0.0	0	0

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	33/53	338	2	4	7	-16.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Joe Mixon	27	82	3.0	-6.1
Joe Burrow	6	47	7.8	1.6
Samaje Perine	1	4	4.0	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Ja'Marr Chase	10	16	129	1	30%	8.6
Joe Mixon	7	9	63	0	17%	1.3
Hayden Hurst	5	8	46	0	15%	-3.3
Samaje Perine	3	5	33	0	9%	1.0
Tyler Boyd	4	7	33	1	13%	-7.1
Tee Higgins	2	2	27	0	4%	2.0
Mike Thomas	1	5	5	0	9%	-1.6
Drew Sample	1	1	2	0	2%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Logan Wilson	5	3	0.0	1
Mike Hilton	7	0	0.0	0
Germaine Pratt	2	4	0.0	1
Chidobe Awuzie	6	0	0.0	0
Trey Hendrickson	2	1	0.0	0
B.J. Hill	1	2	1.0	0
Sam Hubbard	1	2	0.0	0
Jessie Bates	1	1	0.0	0
Stanley Morgan	2	0	0.0	0
Eli Apple	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CIN -7.5
Closing total: 44.5
PIT moneyline: +264
CIN moneyline: -308

Bengals closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 43 — under by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Paycor Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: PIT 7 days · CIN 7 days
Coaches: Mike Tomlin vs Zac Taylor

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.