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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 1:02 AM ET · 16 to play
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 26 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Steelers199 of 214 plays carry both curves
(1:04) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-84-M.Wilcox, Touchback.
Swing +83.6 for BengalsExpected points −0.34 for BengalsModel and market agree here.play 205
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 1:04CIN +84% win prob(1:04) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-84-M.Wilcox, Touchback.
4th · 0:04CIN +42% win prob(:04) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Overtime · 0:05CIN +41% win prob(:05) 9-C.Boswell 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
4th · 0:02PIT +30% win prob2-E.McPherson extra point is Blocked (39-M.Fitzpatrick), Center-84-M.Wilcox, Holder-10-K.Huber.
4th · 1:56PIT +29% win prob(1:56) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short left to 1-J.Chase (20-C.Sutton). PENALTY on CIN-1-J.Chase, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Overtime · 3:37PIT +25% win prob(3:37) 2-E.McPherson 29 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-84-M.Wilcox, Holder-10-K.Huber.
Overtime · 0:34
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chris Boswell's 53-yard field goal with 0:05 left in overtime put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
2nd0:18Evan McPherson·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+317–6
3rd4:44Tyler Boyd·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow · two-point good+817–14
4th11:18Chris Boswell·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder P.Harvin · snap C.Kuntz+320–14
4th0:04Ja'Marr Chase·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow · kick blocked by M.Fitzpatrick+620–20
Overtime0:05Chris Boswell·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder P.Harvin · snap C.KuntzLead never changed again+323–20
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Steelerscategory by categoryBengals
Steelers3–6Bengals
268Total yards434
4.5Yards per play4.6
34%Success rate37%
27%Third-down rate50%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
7Explosive plays6
12First downs28
1Sacks taken7
0Turnovers5
The read
Bengals ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Steelers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.13Steelers: −0.13 expected points added per play
−0.22Bengals: −0.22 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.11Steelers: −0.11 expected points added per play
−0.21Bengals: −0.21 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.19Steelers: −0.19 expected points added per play
−0.23Bengals: −0.23 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 59 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Bengals’s 95 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 2, Bengals 5.
NoteBengals outgained Steelers 434-268 but lost the turnover battle 5-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 29 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.9 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (+0.75× that swing) · 66 dropbacks
Bengals15.0%
right on their number · −1.8 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.30× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
NoteCIN's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 50.0%, 26.7 points above their season mean of 23.3% and 1.5 times their own 17.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
K.Huber punts+84% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(1:04) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-84-M.Wilcox, Touchback.
OT 1:04 · Bengals · 4th & 16 at 50 · gained nothing · -0.34 EP · +83.6% win probability
197 snaps placed · 17 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 214 plays across 30 drives, personnel groupings on 214 snaps, manual charting on 183. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 30 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 68 yards from the CIN 30 for a turnover on downs. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
214 of 214 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
214
EPA per play
-0.14
Success rate
33%
Yards
701
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR87-0.2166%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47-0.0774%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.4220%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.5050%
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Bengals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
214 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
214 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 34
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Steelers6Bengals0
Touchdown2 plays
Steelers7Bengals0
Steelers7Bengals3
Field goal11 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Steelers 34
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 30
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSeven
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Bengals 35 to the Bengals 43
Steelers10Bengals3
Field goal5 plays, from the Bengals 34 to the Bengals 1
The period ended7 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Steelers 45
2nd quarter39 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Steelers 40 to the Steelers 35
Steelers16Bengals3
Steelers17Bengals3
Touchdown9 plays, from the Steelers 41 to the Bengals 1
Intercepted7 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Steelers 43
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 8 to the Steelers 14
Steelers17Bengals6
Field goal12 plays, from the Bengals 35 to the Steelers 3
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter33 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 33
Punt7 plays, from the Steelers 9 to the Steelers 20
Steelers17Bengals12
Steelers17Bengals14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Steelers 46 to the Steelers 2
Punt9 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 40
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter60 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Bengals 12 to the Bengals 15
Steelers20Bengals14
Field goal7 plays, from the Bengals 45 to the Bengals 30
Intercepted9 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Steelers 36
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 23 to the Steelers 40
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Steelers 1
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 17 to the Steelers 19
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Steelers20Bengals20
Touchdown14 plays, from the Bengals 40 to the Steelers 6
The period ended2 plays
Overtime40 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 32
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.2 seconds
Drive ended11 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Steelers 11
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
No good7 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Bengals 37
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThree
Punt8 plays, from the Bengals 45 to the Steelers 38
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.0 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.8 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Steelers23Bengals20
Field goal8 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Bengals 35
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bengals -7.5
Closing total
44.5
Steelers moneyline
+264
Bengals moneyline
-308
Bengals closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 43 — under by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Paycor Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Mild, 75°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the south; 0.30 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Steelers 7 days · Bengals 7 days
Coaches
Mike Tomlin vs Zac Taylor
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
CIN +23% win prob
(:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep middle to 88-P.Freiermuth to CIN 45 for 26 yards (21-M.Hilton). Penalty on CIN-94-S.Hubbard, Defensive Offside, declined.
Overtime · 0:08CIN +21% win prob(:08) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete short right to 11-C.Claypool.
