2022 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 11, 2022 · Soldier Field

San Francisco 49ers

Chicago BearsWinner

SF -6.5 upsetU 38 ✓49ers closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Chicago Bears 19–10. Biggest swing: Q4 9:52, SF +22% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 9:52SF 10 — CHI 13SF ball · 3rd & 5CHI 53%

(9:52) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass short middle intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 4-E.Jackson at SF 47. 4-E.Jackson to SF 21 for 26 yards (5-T.Lance).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 9:52SF +22% win prob(9:52) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass short middle intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 4-E.Jackson at SF 47. 4-E.Jackson to SF 21 for 26 yards (5-T.Lance).
Q4 · 12:50CHI +21% win prob(12:50) 1-J.Fields pass deep middle to 19-E.St. Brown for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 5:45CHI +12% win prob(5:45) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep right to 18-D.Pettis for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 10:24SF +11% win prob(10:24) (Shotgun) 19-D.Samuel left end to CHI 12 for 4 yards (33-J.Johnson). FUMBLES (33-J.Johnson), RECOVERED by CHI-9-J.Brisker at CHI 12.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 10:17SF Touchdown
(10:17) (Shotgun) 19-D.Samuel right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 7 — CHI 0
Q3 · 8:26SF Field goal
(8:26) 9-R.Gould 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
Score after this play: SF 10 — CHI 0
Q3 · 5:45CHI Touchdown
(5:45) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep right to 18-D.Pettis for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 10 — CHI 7
Q4 · 12:50CHI Touchdown
(12:50) 1-J.Fields pass deep middle to 19-E.St. Brown for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: SF 10 — CHI 13
Q4 · 7:24CHI Touchdown
(7:24) (Shotgun) 24-K.Herbert right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: SF 10 — CHI 19

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	49ers	Bears
Offensive plays	67	53
Total yards	331 (edge)	206
Yards per play	4.9 (edge)	3.9
Expected points added / play	-0.16	-0.05 (edge)
Success rate	42% (edge)	30%
Dropback rate	51%	43%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.26	0.09 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.07 (edge)	-0.15
Third downs	8/17 (edge)	5/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	16 (edge)	10
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

49ers outgained Bears 331–206 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Trey LanceQB

13/28, 164 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-9.1 expected points added · -18.2% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Justin FieldsQB

8/17, 121 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-1.7 expected points added · -16.0% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Trey LanceQB

13 att, 54 yds, 0 TD

3.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Deebo SamuelWR

8 att, 52 yds, 1 TD

-4.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

Jauan JenningsWR

4/6 for 62 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · -0.3 expected points added

Receiving · SF

Brandon AiyukWR

2/3 for 40 yds, 0 TD

12% of team targets · 0.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CHI	CHI 23	5	-7	1:30	Punt
2	SF	SF 43	5	50	3:11	Fumble
3	CHI	CHI 12	6	23	2:52	Interception
4	SF	CHI 48	5	13	2:29	Punt
5	CHI	CHI 8	6	3	2:53	Punt
6	SF	SF 36	4	7	1:31	Punt
7	CHI	CHI 6	4	4	1:51	Punt
8	SF	SF 48	8	48	3:32	Touchdown +7
9	CHI	CHI 25	5	3	1:28	Punt
10	SF	SF 24	7	27	4:01	Punt
11	CHI	CHI 24	11	42	4:17	Punt
12	SF	SF 9	4	34	0:25	End of half
13	SF	SF 25	12	68	6:38	Field goal +3
14	CHI	CHI 28	7	57	2:50	Touchdown +7
15	SF	SF 20	8	21	3:55	Punt
16	CHI	CHI 16	11	64	3:52	Touchdown +6
17	SF	SF 25	7	21	3:03	Interception
18	CHI	SF 21	6	17	2:21	Touchdown +6
19	SF	SF 10	13	41	3:43	Turnover on downs
20	CHI	SF 45	4	0	1:09	Punt
21	SF	SF 20	4	1	1:00	Turnover on downs
22	CHI	SF 20	3	0	1:29	End of game

5 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 68 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trey Lance	13/28	164	0	1	2	-9.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Trey Lance	13	54	4.2	0	3.8
Deebo Samuel	8	52	6.5	1	-4.1
Elijah Mitchell	6	41	6.8	0	1.1
Jeffery Wilson	9	22	2.4	0	-3.2
Brandon Aiyuk	1	7	7.0	0	0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Jauan Jennings	4	6	62	23%	-0.3
Brandon Aiyuk	2	3	40	12%	0.2
Ray-Ray McCloud	1	2	20	8%	0.3
Deebo Samuel	2	7	14	27%	-1.6
Ross Dwelley	1	2	11	8%	1.4
Tyler Kroft	1	2	9	8%	-0.3
Jeffery Wilson	2	2	8	8%	-1.2
Kyle Juszczyk	0	2	0	8%	-2.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Talanoa Hufanga	7	2	0.0	1	1
Fred Warner	4	2	0.0	0	0
Dre Greenlaw	3	2	0.0	0	0
Azeez Al-Shaair	2	3	0.0	0	0
Nick Bosa	4	1	1.0	0	0
Tashaun Gipson	2	1	0.0	0	0
Hassan Ridgeway	2	1	0.0	0	0
Arik Armstead	2	0	0.0	0	0
Samson Ebukam	2	0	1.0	0	0
Emmanuel Moseley	2	0	0.0	0	0

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Fields	8/17	121	2	1	2	-1.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Khalil Herbert	9	45	5.0	1	4.4
Justin Fields	11	28	2.5	0	2.6
David Montgomery	17	26	1.5	0	-10.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Dante Pettis	1	1	51	1	6%	5.4
David Montgomery	3	4	24	0	24%	1.2
Byron Pringle	1	2	22	0	12%	0.6
Equanimeous St. Brown	1	3	18	1	18%	1.4
Darnell Mooney	1	3	8	0	18%	-3.3
Ryan Griffin	0	2	0	0	12%	-1.0
Cole Kmet	0	1	0	0	6%	-0.5
Khalil Herbert	1	1	-2	0	6%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Roquan Smith	7	2	0.5	0	1
Nicholas Morrow	5	1	0.0	0	0
Dominique Robinson	4	2	1.5	0	0
Kyler Gordon	6	0	0.0	0	0
Kindle Vildor	5	0	0.0	0	0
Eddie Jackson	2	2	0.0	1	1
Matthew Adams	3	1	0.0	0	0
Jaquan Brisker	3	0	0.0	0	0
Jaylon Johnson	2	1	0.0	0	0
Trevis Gipson	2	0	0.0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -6.5
Closing total: 38
SF moneyline: -248
CHI moneyline: +217

49ers closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 38; the game landed 29 — under by 9.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Soldier Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: SF 7 days · CHI 7 days
Coaches: Kyle Shanahan vs Matt Eberflus