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DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
San Francisco 49ers 10 at Chicago Bears 19. Final.
49ers -6.5 upsetU 38 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 1
Chicago Bears 19, 49ers 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 9:52, 3rd and 5, on Eddie Jackson — 21.7 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 9:52 · 3rd and 5
Eddie Jackson
Bears
(9:52) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass short middle intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 4-E.Jackson at SF 47. 4-E.Jackson to SF 21 for 26 yards (5-T.Lance).
49ers closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Chicago Bears 19–10. Biggest swing: Q4 9:52, Bears +21.7% win probability on one snap.
21.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Dante PettisBearsQ3 5:45(5:45) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep right to 18-D.Pettis for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12.1pts
E.St.BearsQ4 12:50(12:50) 1-J.Fields pass deep middle to 19-E.St. Brown for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
21.2pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 42% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bears at 30% of snaps stayed on schedule.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Bears at 5 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Bears won this one — +0.09 expected points per dropback, against 49ers at -0.26 expected points per dropback.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bears won this one — 1 giveaway, against 49ers at 2 giveaways.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 15.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 29 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bearshigher on 49ers158 of 168 plays carry both curves
(9:52) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass short middle intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 4-E.Jackson at SF 47. 4-E.Jackson to SF 21 for 26 yards (5-T.Lance).
Swing +21.7 for BearsExpected points +5.18 for BearsThe model had Bears 15 points higher than the market did.play 133
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 9:52SF +22% win prob(9:52) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass short middle intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 4-E.Jackson at SF 47. 4-E.Jackson to SF 21 for 26 yards (5-T.Lance).
4th · 12:50CHI +21% win prob(12:50) 1-J.Fields pass deep middle to 19-E.St. Brown for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 5:45CHI +12% win prob(5:45) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep right to 18-D.Pettis for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 10:24SF +11% win prob(10:24) (Shotgun) 19-D.Samuel left end to CHI 12 for 4 yards (33-J.Johnson). FUMBLES (33-J.Johnson), RECOVERED by CHI-9-J.Brisker at CHI 12.
1st · 14:14SF +8% win prob(14:14) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields sacked at CHI 16 for -10 yards (56-S.Ebukam).
4th · 11:55CHI +8% win prob(11:55) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass short middle to 82-R.Dwelley to SF 36 for 11 yards (58-R.Smith).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Equanimeous St. Brown's 18-yard touchdown catch with 12:50 left in the 4th put Chicago Bears ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
4th12:50Equanimeous St. Brown·18-yd TD catch18-yard touchdown catchfrom Justin Fieldsfrom Justin Fields · kick no good, wide rightLead never changed again+610–13
4th7:24Khalil Herbert·3-yd TD run3-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide left+610–19
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
49erscategory by categoryBears
49ers6–2Bears
331Total yards206
4.9Yards per play3.9
42%Success rate30%
47%Third-down rate38%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
8Explosive plays5
16First downs10
2Sacks taken2
2Turnovers1
The read
49ers ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bears, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.1649ers: −0.16 expected points added per play
−0.05Bears: −0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.2649ers: −0.26 expected points added per play
+0.09Bears: +0.09 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.0749ers: −0.07 expected points added per play
−0.15Bears: −0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 67 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Bears’s 53 at 43%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 3, Bears 4.
Note49ers outgained Bears 331-206 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
SF's pass rate over expected, −19.6 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 2.3 points clear of the next team along.
2.1 times their own weekly swing below their number.
67 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CHI's early-down pass rate, 35.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 6.5 points clear of the next team along.
40 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32 pts to 15 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.4 vs their 17.4%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−0.88× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
Bears8.8%
right on their number · +0.8 vs their 8.1%, and they swing ±3.4 week to week (+0.22× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
NoteSF's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -19.6 pts, 15.5 points below their season mean of -4.1 pts and 2.1 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
51 dressed · 7 inactive · 4 never used
69Mike McGlincheyT · Every snap100%68 snaps
65Aaron BanksG · Every snap100%68 snaps
74Spencer BurfordT · Every snap100%68 snaps
5Trey LanceQB · Every snap100%68 snaps
64Jake BrendelC · Every snap100%68 snaps
71Trent WilliamsT · Every snap100%68 snaps
11Brandon AiyukWR · Every snap99%67 snaps
19Deebo SamuelWR · Full-time82%56 snaps
15Jauan JenningsWR · Heavy rotation60%41 snaps
22Jeffery WilsonRB · Heavy rotation59%40 snaps
81Tyler KroftTE · Heavy rotation54%37 snaps
44Kyle JuszczykFB · Rotational37%25 snaps
82Ross DwelleyTE · Rotational28%19 snaps
89Charlie WoernerTE · Rotational28%19 snaps
3Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Rotational26%18 snaps
25Elijah MitchellRB · Rotational25%17 snaps
17Malik TurnerWR · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Jordan WillisDEDaniel BrunskillGNick ZakeljGBrock PurdyQBTyrion Davis-PriceRBGeorge KittleTEDanny GrayWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 4
Leon O'NealDBDee FordDEJimmy GaroppoloQBTaysir MackWR
Chicago Bears
53 dressed · 6 inactive · 7 never used
65Cody WhitehairG · Every snap100%58 snaps
67Sam MustipherC · Every snap100%58 snaps
75Larry BoromT · Every snap100%58 snaps
70Braxton JonesT · Every snap100%58 snaps
1Justin FieldsQB · Every snap100%58 snaps
11Darnell MooneyWR · Full-time90%52 snaps
85Cole KmetTE · Full-time83%48 snaps
19Equanimeous St. BrownWR · Heavy rotation76%44 snaps
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Lance pass−17% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(9:52) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass short middle intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 4-E.Jackson at SF 47. 4-E.Jackson to SF 21 for 26 yards (5-T.Lance).
Q4 9:52 · 49ers · 3rd & 5 at SF 41 · gained nothing · -5.18 EP · −16.5% win probability
156 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps, manual charting on 145. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 84 yards from the CHI 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
-0.15
Success rate
34%
Yards
535
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52-0.1956%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR24+0.1242%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.2820%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8-0.3613%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.0757%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.350%
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.0120%
Bears2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 23 to the Bears 26
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost6 plays, from the 49ers 43 to the Bears 16
Intercepted6 plays, from the Bears 12 to the Bears 35
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 48 to the Bears 29
Punt7 plays, from the Bears 8 to the Bears 32
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 36 to the 49ers 43
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter47 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Bears 8 to the Bears 10
49ers6Bears0
49ers7Bears0
Touchdown10 plays, from the 49ers 48 to the Bears 4
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 28
Punt8 plays, from the 49ers 24 to the 49ers 41
Punt14 plays, from the Bears 24 to the 49ers 29
The period ended7 plays, from the 49ers 9 to the 49ers 43
3rd quarter33 plays
49ers10Bears0
Field goal12 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Bears 2
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw7.9 seconds
49ers10Bears6
49ers10Bears7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bears 28 to the Bears 49
Punt8 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the 49ers 41
The period ended5 plays, from the Bears 16 to the Bears 39
4th quarter51 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.4 seconds
49ers10Bears13
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bears 49 to the 49ers 18
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted9 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 41
49ers10Bears19
Touchdown6 plays, from the 49ers 21 to the 49ers 3
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the 49ers 10 to the 49ers 46
Punt7 plays, from the 49ers 45 to the 49ers 44
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the 49ers 21
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
49ers -6.5
Closing total
38
49ers moneyline
-248
Bears moneyline
+217
49ers closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 38; the game landed 29 — under by 9.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Soldier Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 69°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 6 mph out of the west; 0.09 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
49ers 7 days · Bears 7 days
Coaches
Kyle Shanahan vs Matt Eberflus
4th · 13:37
CHI +8% win prob
(13:37) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields right end to SF 41 for 1 yard (51-A.Al-Shaair). SF-51-A.Al-Shaair was injured during the play. PENALTY on SF-51-A.Al-Shaair, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SF 41.
4th · 8:22CHI +7% win prob(8:22) (Shotgun) 24-K.Herbert left guard to SF 7 for 5 yards (97-N.Bosa). PENALTY on SF-99-J.Kinlaw, Defensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at SF 7.
