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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cowboys.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Buccaneers164 of 172 plays carry both curves
(1:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 6-J.Jones to DAL 29 for 48 yards (3-A.Brown).
Swing −7.0 for CowboysExpected points −2.62 for CowboysThe model had Cowboys 3 points higher than the market did.play 77
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 1:00DAL +7% win prob(1:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 6-J.Jones to DAL 29 for 48 yards (3-A.Brown).
1st · 9:02DAL +7% win prob(9:02) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 14-C.Godwin pushed ob at TB 44 for 24 yards (6-D.Wilson).
1st · 9:06DAL +6% win prob(9:06) 19-B.Maher 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.
2nd · 1:56DAL +6% win prob(1:56) 5-B.Anger punts 53 yards to TB 10, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by DAL-50-D.Harper.
2nd · 0:19DAL +6% win prob(:19) 3-R.Succop 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
2nd · 7:34TB +6% win prob(7:34) 3-R.Succop 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
1st · 7:58
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ryan Succop's 38-yard field goal with 1:10 left in the 1st put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:06Brett Maher·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap J.McQuaide+30–3
1st5:09Ryan Succop·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder J.Camarda · snap Z.Triner+33–3
1st1:10Ryan Succop·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder J.Camarda · snap Z.TrinerLead never changed again+36–3
2nd3:28Ryan Succop·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder J.Camarda · snap Z.Triner+39–3
2nd0:19Ryan Succop·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder J.Camarda · snap Z.Triner+312–3
3rd3:27Mike Evans·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+719–3
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Buccaneerscategory by categoryCowboys
Buccaneers8–0Cowboys
348Total yards245
5.8Yards per play3.9
50%Success rate38%
36%Third-down rate20%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
10Explosive plays2
18First downs12
2Sacks taken4
1Turnovers1
The read
Buccaneers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.44 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.01Buccaneers: +0.01 expected points added per play
−0.34Cowboys: −0.34 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.04Buccaneers: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.44Cowboys: −0.44 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.01Buccaneers: −0.01 expected points added per play
−0.09Cowboys: −0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 60 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 63 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 4, Cowboys 0.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.34.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 24 pts
right on their number · +1.6 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.28× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Cowboys13.8%
right on their number · −3.0 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
NoteDAL's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 75.0%, 45.7 points above their season mean of 29.3% and 1.7 times their own 27.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Prescott pass−10% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(6:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right intended for 85-N.Brown INTERCEPTED by 31-A.Winfield at DAL 38. 31-A.Winfield to DAL 23 for 15 yards (63-T.Biadasz).
Q2 6:17 · Cowboys · 3rd & 10 at DAL 26 · gained nothing · -4.48 EP · −10.2% win probability
162 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps, manual charting on 153. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 79 yards from the TB 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
-0.17
Success rate
39%
Yards
591
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.4184%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.0263%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.0121%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.0440%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.4443%
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Buccaneers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Buccaneers0Cowboys3
Field goal15 plays, from the Cowboys 14 to the Buccaneers 31
Buccaneers3Cowboys3
Field goal9 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Cowboys 25
Punt6 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 32
Buccaneers6Cowboys3
Field goal7 plays, from the Buccaneers 31 to the Cowboys 20
The period ended4 plays, from the Cowboys 10 to the Cowboys 11
2nd quarter43 plays
Punt2 plays
No good12 plays, from the Buccaneers 39 to the Cowboys 8
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.9 seconds
Intercepted4 plays
Buccaneers9Cowboys3
Field goal5 plays, from the Cowboys 23 to the Cowboys 4
Punt8 plays, from the Cowboys 24 to the Cowboys 37
Buccaneers12Cowboys3
Field goal9 plays, from the Buccaneers 10 to the Cowboys 29
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 37
Punt7 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Cowboys 37
Buccaneers18Cowboys3
Buccaneers19Cowboys3
Touchdown10 plays, from the Buccaneers 21 to the Cowboys 5
The period ended11 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Buccaneers 49
4th quarter51 plays
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Buccaneers 45 to the Buccaneers 41
Intercepted3 plays, from the Buccaneers 41 to the Buccaneers 48
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 48 to midfield
Punt10 plays, from the Buccaneers 13 to the Buccaneers 45
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Cowboys 14 to the Buccaneers 32
Punt7 plays, from the Buccaneers 42 to the Buccaneers 48
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Cowboys 19 to the Cowboys 43
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
