2022 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 11, 2022 · AT&T Stadium

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

Dallas Cowboys

TB -2.5 ✓U 49.5 ✓DomeBuccaneers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 16.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19–3. Biggest swing: Q2 1:00, DAL +7% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 1:00TB 9 — DAL 3TB ball · 1st & 10TB 80%

(1:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 6-J.Jones to DAL 29 for 48 yards (3-A.Brown).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 1:00DAL +7% win prob(1:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 6-J.Jones to DAL 29 for 48 yards (3-A.Brown).
Q1 · 9:02DAL +7% win prob(9:02) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 14-C.Godwin pushed ob at TB 44 for 24 yards (6-D.Wilson).
Q1 · 9:06DAL +6% win prob(9:06) 19-B.Maher 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Q2 · 1:56DAL +6% win prob(1:56) 5-B.Anger punts 53 yards to TB 10, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by DAL-50-D.Harper.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 9:06DAL Field goal
(9:06) 19-B.Maher 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Score after this play: TB 0 — DAL 3
Q1 · 5:09TB Field goal
(5:09) 3-R.Succop 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
Score after this play: TB 3 — DAL 3
Q1 · 1:10TB Field goal
(1:10) 3-R.Succop 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
Score after this play: TB 6 — DAL 3
Q2 · 3:28TB Field goal
(3:28) 3-R.Succop 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
Score after this play: TB 9 — DAL 3
Q2 · 0:19TB Field goal
(:19) 3-R.Succop 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
Score after this play: TB 12 — DAL 3
Q3 · 3:27TB Touchdown
(3:27) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 13-M.Evans for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 19 — DAL 3

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	Cowboys
Offensive plays	60	63
Total yards	348 (edge)	245
Yards per play	5.8 (edge)	3.9
Expected points added / play	0.01 (edge)	-0.34
Success rate	50% (edge)	38%
Dropback rate	48%	73%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.04 (edge)	-0.44
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.01 (edge)	-0.09
Third downs	5/14 (edge)	3/15
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	18 (edge)	12
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	4
Turnovers	1	1

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.34.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

18/27, 212 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

1.1 expected points added · +3.3% completion over expected

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

14/29, 134 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-12.5 expected points added · -23.0% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Leonard FournetteRB

21 att, 127 yds, 0 TD

2.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DAL

Ezekiel ElliottRB

10 att, 52 yds, 0 TD

1.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

5/7 for 71 yds, 1 TD

26% of team targets · 2.7 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Julio JonesWR

3/5 for 69 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 2.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DAL	DAL 14	15	54	5:58	Field goal +3
2	TB	TB 25	8	54	3:57	Field goal +3
3	DAL	DAL 25	5	7	1:12	Punt
4	TB	TB 31	7	49	2:47	Field goal +3
5	DAL	DAL 10	5	6	1:21	Punt
6	TB	TB 39	12	43	7:14	Missed field goal
7	DAL	DAL 26	3	10	1:25	Interception
8	TB	DAL 23	5	12	2:41	Field goal +3
9	DAL	DAL 24	7	18	1:39	Punt
10	TB	TB 10	8	61	1:32	Field goal +3
11	DAL	DAL 15	2	0	0:14	End of half
12	TB	TB 25	6	12	2:49	Punt
13	DAL	DAL 20	6	15	4:04	Punt
14	TB	TB 21	10	79	4:44	Touchdown +7
15	DAL	DAL 25	10	49	4:52	Turnover on downs
16	TB	TB 41	3	7	1:30	Interception
17	DAL	DAL 48	4	2	0:49	Punt
18	TB	TB 13	8	32	4:12	Punt
19	DAL	DAL 14	11	39	3:46	Turnover on downs
20	TB	TB 42	4	-1	0:27	Punt
21	DAL	DAL 19	8	45	1:58	Turnover on downs
22	TB	50	2	0	0:49	End of game

6 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 79 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	18/27	212	1	1	2	1.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Leonard Fournette	21	127	6.0	2.0
Julio Jones	2	17	8.5	1.3
Rachaad White	6	14	2.3	-1.0
Jaelon Darden	1	2	2.0	-0.4
Tom Brady	2	-1	-0.5	-1.4
Breshad Perriman	1	-7	-7.0	-2.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Evans	5	7	71	1	26%	2.7
Julio Jones	3	5	69	0	19%	2.7
Chris Godwin	3	3	35	0	11%	2.2
Russell Gage	2	2	13	0	7%	0.3
Leonard Fournette	2	2	10	0	7%	0.6
Rachaad White	2	2	7	0	7%	-0.6
Cameron Brate	1	3	7	0	11%	-1.4
Breshad Perriman	0	3	0	0	11%	-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Devin White	7	1	2.0	0	1
Antoine Winfield	5	1	0.0	1	1
Lavonte David	3	3	0.0	0	1
Mike Edwards	4	1	0.0	0	1
Logan Ryan	3	2	0.0	0	0
Carlton Davis	3	1	0.0	0	1
Jamel Dean	3	0	0.0	0	1
Cade Otton	2	1	0.0	0	0
Anthony Nelson	1	1	1.0	0	0
K.J. Britt	2	0	0.0	0	0

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Dak Prescott	14/29	134	0	1	2	-12.5
Cooper Rush	7/13	64	0	0	2	-7.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Ezekiel Elliott	10	52	5.2	1.2
Dak Prescott	2	11	5.5	1.3
Tony Pollard	6	8	1.3	-4.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Noah Brown	5	9	68	22%	-0.1
Dalton Schultz	7	9	62	22%	3.0
CeeDee Lamb	2	11	29	27%	-4.8
Dennis Houston	2	5	16	12%	-3.7
Tony Pollard	2	2	14	5%	-2.1
Simi Fehoko	2	3	12	7%	-2.0
Ezekiel Elliott	1	2	-3	5%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Leighton Vander Esch	6	3	0.0	0	0
Jayron Kearse	3	4	0.0	0	0
Anthony Brown	4	2	0.0	0	0
Jourdan Lewis	4	1	0.0	0	0
Donovan Wilson	4	1	0.0	1	1
Micah Parsons	4	1	2.0	0	0
Osa Odighizuwa	3	1	0.0	0	0
Dorance Armstrong	1	2	0.0	0	0
Trevon Diggs	3	0	0.0	0	2
Anthony Barr	1	2	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -2.5
Closing total: 49.5
TB moneyline: -133
DAL moneyline: +120

Buccaneers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 16.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 22 — under by 27.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: TB 7 days · DAL 7 days
Coaches: Todd Bowles vs Mike McCarthy