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Game Center
⏸live · 12s tick · as of 6:46 PM ET · 3 h ago · 1 live · 1 to play · 14 final
Arizona Cardinals 29 at Las Vegas Raiders 23. Final.
Raiders -5.5 upset
The verdict · 2022 Week 2
Arizona Cardinals 29, Raiders 23 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at OT 4:05, 2nd and 10, on Hunter Renfrow — 48.2 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
O 51.5 ✓
Dome
Raiders closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Arizona Cardinals 29–23. Biggest swing: OT 4:05, Cardinals +48.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · OT 4:05 · 2nd and 10
Hunter Renfrow
Cardinals
(4:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow to ARI 38 for 1 yard (9-I.Simmons) [45-D.Gardeck]. FUMBLES (9-I.Simmons), touched at ARI 39, RECOVERED by ARI-7-B.Murphy at ARI 41. 7-B.Murphy for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
48.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kyler MurrayCardinalsQ4 0:05(:05) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray scrambles left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
22.6pts
Hunter RenfrowRaidersOT 4:45(4:45) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 13-H.Renfrow to ARI 45 for 11 yards (34-J.Thompson, 25-Z.Collins). FUMBLES (25-Z.Collins), recovered by LV-87-F.Moreau at ARI 39.
21.1pts
What separated them
Third down
Raiders owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 11 on third down, against Cardinals at 3 of 13 on third down.
Raidersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Cardinals won this one — +0.16 expected points per carry, against Raiders at -0.06 expected points per carry.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Cardinals won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Raiders at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Cardinals won this one — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Raiders at 46% of snaps stayed on schedule.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Cardinals182 of 199 plays carry both curves
(4:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow to ARI 38 for 1 yard (9-I.Simmons) [45-D.Gardeck]. FUMBLES (9-I.Simmons), touched at ARI 39, RECOVERED by ARI-7-B.Murphy at ARI 41. 7-B.Murphy for 59 yards, TOUCH
Swing −48.2 for RaidersExpected points −8.91 for RaidersModel and market agree here.play 198
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 4:05ARI +48% win prob(4:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow to ARI 38 for 1 yard (9-I.Simmons) [45-D.Gardeck]. FUMBLES (9-I.Simmons), touched at ARI 39, RECOVERED by ARI-7-B.Murphy at ARI 41. 7-B.Murphy for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
4th · 0:05LV +23% win prob(:05) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray scrambles left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Overtime · 4:45LV +21% win prob(4:45) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 13-H.Renfrow to ARI 45 for 11 yards (34-J.Thompson, 25-Z.Collins). FUMBLES (25-Z.Collins), recovered by LV-87-F.Moreau at ARI 39.
4th · 0:00LV +19% win prob(Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 1-K.Murray pass to 18-A.Green is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Overtime · 5:26ARI +14% win prob(5:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow to LV 44 for 7 yards (9-I.Simmons).
Overtime · 8:19
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Byron Murphy's 59-yard touchdown with 4:05 left in overtime put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Cardinals ahead 4–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Raiders, in third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.03Cardinals: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.08Raiders: −0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.03Cardinals: −0.03 expected points added per play
−0.09Raiders: −0.09 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.16Cardinals: +0.16 expected points added per play
−0.06Raiders: −0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 80 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Raiders’s 61 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 4, Raiders 4.
NoteCardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.08.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · +0.6 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+0.08× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Raiders9.4%
inside their normal wobble · −4.0 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (−0.58× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
NoteARI's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 83.3%, 31.8 points above their season mean of 51.6% and 1.6 times their own 19.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
D.Carr pass−48% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(4:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow to ARI 38 for 1 yard (9-I.Simmons) [45-D.Gardeck]. FUMBLES (9-I.Simmons), touched at ARI 39, RECOVERED by ARI-7-B.Murphy at ARI 41. 7-B.Murphy for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
OT 4:05 · Raiders · 2nd & 10 at ARI 39 · gained nothing · -8.91 EP · −48.2% win probability
181 snaps placed · 18 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 199 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 199 snaps, manual charting on 166. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 84 yards from the ARI 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
199 of 199 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
199
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
43%
Yards
741
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR59+0.1769%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.0976%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.3050%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.0438%
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.1517%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Raiders2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Cardinals2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Cardinals2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
199 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
199 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Cardinals0Raiders6
Cardinals0Raiders7
Touchdown20 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Cardinals 1
Punt9 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 44
The period ended5 plays, from the Raiders 20 to the Raiders 48
2nd quarter48 plays
Cardinals0Raiders10
Field goal8 plays, from the Cardinals 33 to the Cardinals 14
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 39
Cardinals0Raiders16
Cardinals0Raiders17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Raiders 41 to the Cardinals 3
Intercepted12 plays, from the Cardinals 10 to the Raiders 42
Cardinals0Raiders20
Field goal12 plays, from the Raiders 27 to the Cardinals 37
3rd quarter42 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 42
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 8 to the Raiders 16
Cardinals6Raiders20
Cardinals7Raiders20
Touchdown14 plays, from the Cardinals 21 to the Raiders 5
Cardinals7Raiders23
Field goal11 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Cardinals 7
The period ended6 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 39
4th quarter55 plays
The period ended6 plays, from midfield to the Raiders 11
Punt4 plays
Cardinals13Raiders23
Cardinals15Raiders23
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cardinals 46 to the Raiders 1
Punt7 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 39
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Cardinals21Raiders23
Touchdown23 plays, from the Cardinals 27 to the Raiders 3
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsIn the boxFive defenders
Cardinals23Raiders23
Overtime19 plays
The period ended11 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Raiders 37
How the play was built
A screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
Cardinals29Raiders23
Touchdown7 plays, from the Raiders 37 to the Cardinals 39
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
