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polling · 1800s tick · as of 8:35 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 18, 2022 · SoFi Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 2
It turned at Q4 1:18, 3rd and 13, on Jalen Ramsey — 18.4 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Los Angeles Rams 31–27. Biggest swing: Q4 1:18, Rams +18.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:18 · 3rd and 13
Jalen Ramsey
Rams
(1:18) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass deep middle intended for 89-B.Edwards INTERCEPTED by 5-J.Ramsey at LA -2. 5-J.Ramsey pushed ob at LA 23 for 25 yards (67-D.Dalman).
18.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Rams won this one — 7 of 10 on third down, against Falcons at 3 of 10 on third down.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Rams won this one — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Falcons at 2 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Rams won this one — 56% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Falcons at 44% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Rams won this one — -0.03 expected points per carry, against Falcons at -0.36 expected points per carry.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
(1:18) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass deep middle intended for 89-B.Edwards INTERCEPTED by 5-J.Ramsey at LA -2. 5-J.Ramsey pushed ob at LA 23 for 25 yards (67-D.Dalman).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Allen Robinson's 1-yard touchdown catch with 1:48 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Allen Robinson1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew StaffordLead never changed again+70–710 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Falconscategory by categoryRams
Rams ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 57 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Rams’s 63 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 6, Rams 5.
Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.15.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 15 pts
Over Expected room →Falcons-10.4 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.6 vs their -13.9 pts, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.65× that swing) · 56 snaps
Rams7.2 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +10.6 vs their -3.4 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+1.57× that swing) · 63 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 21% to 83%
Tendencies room →Falcons54.5%leaned — passed early · +11.8 vs their 42.7%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+1.46× that swing) · 44 early downs
Rams57.7%right on their number · +0.7 vs their 57.0%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (+0.07× that swing) · 52 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 65%
Tendencies room →Falcons28.1%inside their normal wobble · −7.5 vs their 35.6%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (−0.66× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Rams27.0%right on their number · −1.5 vs their 28.5%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (−0.12× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -52% to 128%
Fourth Down room →Falcons—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 24.9%.
Rams—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 37.8%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -11% to 58%
Tendencies room →Falcons29.7%right on their number · +6.4 vs their 23.3%, and they swing ±13.3 week to week (+0.48× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Rams37.5%inside their normal wobble · +9.2 vs their 28.3%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (+0.82× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 36%
Tendencies room →Falcons8.1%inside their normal wobble · −2.8 vs their 10.9%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Rams18.2%right on their number · +4.1 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.47× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
LA's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 7.2 pts, 10.6 points above their season mean of -3.4 pts and 1.6 times their own 6.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · LA
27/36, 272 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
6.5 expected points added · +7.9% completion over expected
Passing · ATL
17/26, 196 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
-1.7 expected points added · +1.3% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Olamide Zaccheaus banked 6.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake LondonWR · Alpha Receiver | 24.6 | +3.4 | 82% | 88% | 48% | 47% | 8/12, 86 yd, 1 TD |
| Marcus MariotaQB · Starter QB | 13.4 | −3.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/26, 196 yd, 2 TD, 2 INT · 6 car, 16 yd |
| Olamide ZaccheausWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.1 | +6.7 | 43% | 52% | 8% | 7% | 2/2, 21 yd, 1 TD |
| KhaDarel HodgeWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.7 | +2.8 | 20% | 15% | 12% | 18% | 2/3, 57 yd |
| Cordarrelle PattersonRB · Committee Back | 4.1 | −3.0 | 59% | 55% | 4% | 2% | 10 car, 41 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Kyle PittsTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | −1.6 | 93% | 100% | 12% | 12% | 2/3, 19 yd |
| Tyler AllgeierRB | 3.0 | −2.2 | 31% | 21% | 0% | — | 10 car, 30 yd |
| Avery WilliamsRB | 1.6 | +0.1 | 25% | 33% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Parker HesseTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | +0.2 | 66% | 52% | 4% | 2% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Bryan EdwardsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −2.8 | 26% | 30% | 8% | 13% | 1/2, 2 yd |
| Caleb HuntleyRB | 0.3 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:18) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass deep middle intended for 89-B.Edwards INTERCEPTED by 5-J.Ramsey at LA -2. 5-J.Ramsey pushed ob at LA 23 for 25 yards (67-D.Dalman).
Q4 1:18 · Falcons · 3rd & 13 at LA 24 · gained nothing · -3.93 EP · −23.9% win probability
150 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 163 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, manual charting on 130. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 78 yards from the LA 21 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Falcons0
Rams6Falcons0Rams7Falcons0Rams13Falcons0Rams14Falcons3Rams14Falcons3Rams20Falcons3Rams21Falcons3Rams27Falcons3Rams28Falcons9Rams28Falcons10Rams28Falcons10Rams31Falcons16Rams31Falcons17Rams31Falcons23Rams31Falcons25Rams31How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
Falcons27Rams31How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket, the sack was on the quarterback.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Falcons at Rams, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 17/26 | 196 | 2 | 2 | 3 | −1.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 10 | 41 | 4.1 | 0 | −2.5 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 10 | 30 | 3.0 | 0 | −3.0 |
| Marcus Mariota |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 8 | 12 | 86 | 1 | 48% | +5.0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 2 | 3 | 57 | 0 | 12% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Terrell | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Adetokunbo Ogundeji | 2 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Richie Grant |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 27/36 | 272 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +6.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_02_ATL_LA
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Rams closed -10.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 58 — over by 11.5.
Conditions and crew
| 6 |
| 16 |
| 2.7 |
| 0 |
| −1.1 |
| Caleb Huntley | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| +4.4 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 2 | 2 | 21 | 1 | 8% | +2.7 |
| Kyle Pitts | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 12% | +0.5 |
| Avery Williams | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Parker Hesse | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | +1.6 |
| Bryan Edwards | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8% | −4.4 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −6.9 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Erik Harris | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darren Hall | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mykal Walker | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Arnold Ebiketie | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylinn Hawkins | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dee Alford | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Malone | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 10 | 47 | 4.7 | 1 | +3.9 |
| Cam Akers | 15 | 44 | 2.9 | 0 | −2.6 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | -26 | -26.0 | 0 | −2.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 11 | 14 | 108 | 2 | 40% | −3.6 |
| Tyler Higbee | 7 | 9 | 71 | 0 | 26% | −0.2 |
| Allen Robinson | 4 | 5 | 53 | 1 | 14% | +6.0 |
| Cam Akers | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 9% | +0.6 |
| Ben Skowronek | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 9% | −0.5 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +0.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernest Jones | 4 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Wagner | 2 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Hollins | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Fuller | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Long | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Scott | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrell Lewis | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A'Shawn Robinson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Ramsey | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Taylor Rapp | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
