2022 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 18, 2022 · SoFi Stadium

Atlanta Falcons

Los Angeles RamsWinner

LA -10.5 no coverO 46.5 ✓DomeRams closed -10.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.

Los Angeles Rams 31–27. Biggest swing: Q4 1:18, ATL +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:18ATL 25 — LA 31ATL ball · 3rd & 13LA 80%

(1:18) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass deep middle intended for 89-B.Edwards INTERCEPTED by 5-J.Ramsey at LA -2. 5-J.Ramsey pushed ob at LA 23 for 25 yards (67-D.Dalman).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:18ATL +18% win prob(1:18) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass deep middle intended for 89-B.Edwards INTERCEPTED by 5-J.Ramsey at LA -2. 5-J.Ramsey pushed ob at LA 23 for 25 yards (67-D.Dalman).
Q4 · 3:32ATL +12% win prob(3:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 10-C.Kupp to LA 43 for 12 yards (34-D.Hall) [95-T.Graham]. FUMBLES (34-D.Hall), RECOVERED by ATL-34-D.Hall at LA 40. 34-D.Hall to LA 37 for 3 yards (10-C.Kupp).
Q1 · 11:32LA +7% win prob(11:32) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota scrambles right end to LA 31 for 10 yards (54-L.Floyd).
Q4 · 0:06ATL +7% win prob(:06) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota sacked at ATL 40 for -10 yards (58-J.Hollins). FUMBLES (58-J.Hollins) [58-J.Hollins], RECOVERED by LA-99-A.Donald at ATL 39.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 1:48LA Touchdown
(1:48) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 1-Al.Robinson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 0 — LA 7
Q2 · 9:34LA Touchdown
(9:34) 27-D.Henderson right guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 0 — LA 14
Q2 · 2:47ATL Field goal
(2:47) 7-Y.Koo 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: ATL 3 — LA 14
Q2 · 0:18LA Touchdown
(:18) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 10-C.Kupp for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 3 — LA 21
Q3 · 9:28LA Touchdown
(9:28) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 10-C.Kupp for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 3 — LA 28
Q3 · 3:24ATL Touchdown
(3:24) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass short left to 5-D.London for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 10 — LA 28
Q4 · 12:16LA Field goal
(12:16) 8-M.Gay 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: ATL 10 — LA 31
Q4 · 8:21ATL Touchdown
(8:21) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass short right to 17-O.Zaccheaus for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 17 — LA 31
Q4 · 5:06ATL Touchdown
(5:06) 11-R.Dixon punt is BLOCKED by 44-T.Andersen, Center-42-M.Orzech, RECOVERED by ATL-9-L.Carter at LA 26. 9-L.Carter for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: ATL 23 — LA 31
Q4 · 4:57ATL Two-point
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 1-M.Mariota pass to 5-D.London is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
Score after this play: ATL 25 — LA 31
Q4 · 0:13ATL Safety
(:13) (Run formation) 19-B.Powell right end ran ob in End Zone for -26 yards, SAFETY (37-D.Alford).
Score after this play: ATL 27 — LA 31

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Falcons	Rams
Offensive plays	57	63
Total yards	263	337 (edge)
Yards per play	4.6	5.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.15	0.01 (edge)
Success rate	44%	56% (edge)
Dropback rate	58%	59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.00	0.04 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.36	-0.03 (edge)
Third downs	3/10	7/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	16	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	3	3

Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.15.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

27/36, 272 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

6.5 expected points added · +7.9% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Marcus MariotaQB

17/26, 196 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-1.7 expected points added · +1.3% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Darrell HendersonRB

10 att, 47 yds, 1 TD

3.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LA

Cam AkersRB

15 att, 44 yds, 0 TD

-2.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Cooper KuppWR

11/14 for 108 yds, 2 TD

40% of team targets · -3.6 expected points added

Receiving · ATL

Drake LondonWR

8/12 for 86 yds, 1 TD

48% of team targets · 5.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ATL	ATL 25	14	54	8:06	Missed field goal
2	LA	LA 34	10	61	5:10	Touchdown +7
3	ATL	ATL 25	7	8	2:33	Turnover on downs
4	LA	50	9	50	4:41	Touchdown +7
5	ATL	ATL 25	12	77	6:46	Field goal +3
6	LA	LA 25	7	52	1:50	Interception
7	ATL	ATL 20	3	0	0:26	Interception
8	LA	ATL 9	4	5	0:14	Touchdown +7
9	ATL	ATL 25	4	23	0:14	End of half
10	LA	LA 25	12	75	5:38	Touchdown +7
11	ATL	ATL 25	5	0	2:08	Punt
12	LA	LA 30	2	3	0:51	Interception
13	ATL	LA 20	6	25	3:03	Touchdown +7
14	LA	LA 21	14	83	6:07	Field goal +3
15	ATL	ATL 28	10	72	3:59	Touchdown +7
16	LA	LA 25	8	16	3:17	Defensive touchdown
17	LA	LA 25	4	15	1:35	Fumble
18	ATL	LA 37	5	13	2:15	Interception
19	LA	LA 23	4	-23	1:01	Safety
20	ATL	50	2	-11	0:06	Fumble

8 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Rams gained 83 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Marcus Mariota	17/26	196	2	2	3	-1.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Cordarrelle Patterson	10	41	4.1	-2.5
Tyler Allgeier	10	30	3.0	-3.0
Marcus Mariota	6	16	2.7	-1.1
Caleb Huntley	1	3	3.0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Drake London	8	12	86	1	48%	5.0
KhaDarel Hodge	2	3	57	0	12%	4.4
Olamide Zaccheaus	2	2	21	1	8%	2.7
Kyle Pitts	2	3	19	0	12%	0.5
Avery Williams	1	1	6	0	4%	-0.5
Parker Hesse	1	1	5	0	4%	1.6
Bryan Edwards	1	2	2	0	8%	-4.4
Cordarrelle Patterson	0	1	0	0	4%	-6.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
A.J. Terrell	4	3	0.0	0	1
Adetokunbo Ogundeji	2	4	1.0	0	0
Richie Grant	3	3	0.0	0	0
Erik Harris	3	3	0.0	0	0
Darren Hall	4	1	0.0	0	0
Mykal Walker	2	2	0.0	1	1
Arnold Ebiketie	1	2	0.0	0	0
Jaylinn Hawkins	1	1	0.0	0	0
Dee Alford	2	0	0.0	0	0
DeAngelo Malone	2	0	0.0	0	0

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	27/36	272	3	2	1	6.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Darrell Henderson	10	47	4.7	1	3.9
Cam Akers	15	44	2.9	0	-2.6
Brandon Powell	1	-26	-26.0	0	-2.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cooper Kupp	11	14	108	2	40%	-3.6
Tyler Higbee	7	9	71	0	26%	-0.2
Allen Robinson	4	5	53	1	14%	6.0
Cam Akers	2	3	18	0	9%	0.6
Ben Skowronek	2	3	16	0	9%	-0.5
Brandon Powell	1	1	6	0	3%	0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Ernest Jones	4	7	0.0	0	0
Bobby Wagner	2	4	1.0	0	0
Justin Hollins	4	1	1.0	0	0
Jordan Fuller	3	2	0.0	0	0
David Long	3	1	0.0	0	0
Nick Scott	2	1	0.0	0	0
Terrell Lewis	2	1	0.0	0	0
A'Shawn Robinson	1	2	0.0	0	0
Jalen Ramsey	2	0	0.0	1	2
Taylor Rapp	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LA -10.5
Closing total: 46.5
ATL moneyline: +385
LA moneyline: -473

Rams closed -10.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 58 — over by 11.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: ATL 7 days · LA 10 days
Coaches: Arthur Smith vs Sean McVay