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Los Angeles Rams 31, Falcons 27 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 1:18, 3rd and 13, on Jalen Ramsey — 18.4 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:18 · 3rd and 13
Jalen Ramsey
Rams
(1:18) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass deep middle intended for 89-B.Edwards INTERCEPTED by 5-J.Ramsey at LA -2. 5-J.Ramsey pushed ob at LA 23 for 25 yards (67-D.Dalman).
Dome
Rams closed -10.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
Los Angeles Rams 31–27. Biggest swing: Q4 1:18, Rams +18.4% win probability on one snap.
18.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Marcus MariotaFalconsQ1 11:32(11:32) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota scrambles right end to LA 31 for 10 yards (54-L.Floyd).
7.3pts
Cooper KuppFalconsQ4 3:32(3:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 10-C.Kupp to LA 43 for 12 yards (34-D.Hall) [95-T.Graham]. FUMBLES (34-D.Hall), RECOVERED by ATL-34-D.Hall at LA 40. 34-D.Hall to LA 37 for 3 yards (10-C.Kupp).
11.6pts
What separated them
Third down
Rams won this one — 7 of 10 on third down, against Falcons at 3 of 10 on third down.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Rams won this one — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Falcons at 2 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Rams won this one — 56% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Falcons at 44% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Rams won this one — -0.03 expected points per carry, against Falcons at -0.36 expected points per carry.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Falcons151 of 163 plays carry both curves
(1:18) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass deep middle intended for 89-B.Edwards INTERCEPTED by 5-J.Ramsey at LA -2. 5-J.Ramsey pushed ob at LA 23 for 25 yards (67-D.Dalman).
Swing +18.4 for RamsExpected points +3.93 for RamsThe model had Falcons 6 points higher than the market did.play 152
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:18ATL +18% win prob(1:18) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass deep middle intended for 89-B.Edwards INTERCEPTED by 5-J.Ramsey at LA -2. 5-J.Ramsey pushed ob at LA 23 for 25 yards (67-D.Dalman).
4th · 3:32ATL +12% win prob(3:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 10-C.Kupp to LA 43 for 12 yards (34-D.Hall) [95-T.Graham]. FUMBLES (34-D.Hall), RECOVERED by ATL-34-D.Hall at LA 40. 34-D.Hall to LA 37 for 3 yards (10-C.Kupp).
1st · 11:32LA +7% win prob(11:32) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota scrambles right end to LA 31 for 10 yards (54-L.Floyd).
4th · 0:06ATL +7% win prob(:06) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota sacked at ATL 40 for -10 yards (58-J.Hollins). FUMBLES (58-J.Hollins) [58-J.Hollins], RECOVERED by LA-99-A.Donald at ATL 39.
1st · 7:40ATL +6% win prob(7:40) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota sacked at LA 26 for -7 yards (45-B.Wagner).
1st · 6:59ATL +5% win prob(6:59) 7-Y.Koo 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Allen Robinson's 1-yard touchdown catch with 1:48 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st1:48Allen Robinson·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew StaffordLead never changed again+70–7
2nd2:47Younghoe Koo·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap L.McCullough+33–14
2nd0:18Cooper Kupp·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+73–21
3rd9:28Cooper Kupp·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+73–28
3rd3:24Drake London·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Marcus Mariotafrom Marcus Mariota+710–28
4th12:16Matt Gay·20-yd field goal20-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap M.Orzech+310–31
4th8:21Olamide Zaccheaus·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Marcus Mariotafrom Marcus Mariota+717–31
4th5:06Lorenzo Carter·26-yd return TD26-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kick · two-point good+825–31
4th0:13Dee Alford·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+227–31
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Falconscategory by categoryRams
Falcons1–7Rams
263Total yards337
4.6Yards per play5.3
44%Success rate56%
30%Third-down rate70%
2Red-zone touchdowns4
4Explosive plays3
16First downs23
3Sacks taken1
3Turnovers3
The read
Rams ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.15Falcons: −0.15 expected points added per play
+0.01Rams: +0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.00Falcons: +0.00 expected points added per play
+0.04Rams: +0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.36Falcons: −0.36 expected points added per play
−0.03Rams: −0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 57 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Rams’s 63 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 6, Rams 5.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.15.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 15 pts
inside their normal wobble · −2.8 vs their 10.9%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Rams18.2%
right on their number · +4.1 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.47× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
NoteLA's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 7.2 pts, 10.6 points above their season mean of -3.4 pts and 1.6 times their own 6.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
68Elijah WilkinsonT · Every snap100%61 snaps
76Kaleb McGaryT · Every snap100%61 snaps
70Jake MatthewsT · Every snap100%61 snaps
63Chris LindstromG · Every snap100%61 snaps
67Drew DalmanC · Every snap100%61 snaps
1Marcus MariotaQB · Every snap100%61 snaps
8Kyle PittsTE · Full-time93%57 snaps
5Drake LondonWR · Full-time82%50 snaps
46Parker HesseTE · Heavy rotation66%40 snaps
84Cordarrelle PattersonRB · Heavy rotation59%36 snaps
17Olamide ZaccheausWR · Rotational43%26 snaps
25Tyler AllgeierRB · Rotational31%19 snaps
89Bryan EdwardsWR · Rotational26%16 snaps
35Avery WilliamsRB · Rotational25%15 snaps
40Keith SmithFB · Rotational25%15 snaps
86Anthony FirkserTE · Situational21%13 snaps
12KhaDarel HodgeWR · Situational20%12 snaps
42Caleb HuntleyRB · Situational5%3 snaps
83Jared BernhardtWR · Situational3%2 snaps
66Colby GossettG · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Matt DickersonDTNick KwiatkoskiILBQuinton BellOLBFeleipe FranksQBChuma EdogaTDamiere ByrdWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Desmond RidderQB
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
70Joseph NoteboomT · Full-time98%62 snaps
73David EdwardsG · Full-time98%62 snaps
79Rob HavensteinT · Full-time98%62 snaps
10Cooper KuppWR · Full-time98%62 snaps
9Matthew StaffordQB · Full-time98%62 snaps
65Coleman SheltonG · Full-time98%62 snaps
89Tyler HigbeeTE · Full-time97%61 snaps
77Alaric JacksonT · Full-time95%60 snaps
1Allen RobinsonWR · Full-time90%57 snaps
18Ben SkowronekWR · Full-time86%54 snaps
27Darrell HendersonRB · Heavy rotation56%35 snaps
3Cam AkersRB · Rotational43%27 snaps
19Brandon PowellWR · Situational10%6 snaps
88Brycen HopkinsTE · Situational6%4 snaps
71Bobby EvansG · Situational5%3 snaps
72Tremayne AnchrumT · Situational3%2 snaps
15Tutu AtwellWR · Situational3%2 snaps
33Nick ScottSS · Situational2%1 snap
53Ernest JonesILB · Situational2%1 snap
97Michael HoechtDT · Situational2%1 snap
43Jake GervaseILB · Situational2%1 snap
56Christian RozeboomILB · Situational2%1 snap
26Terrell BurgessFS · Situational2%1 snap
35Jake HummelLB · Situational2%1 snap
34Jake FunkRB · Situational2%1 snap
87Jacob HarrisWR · Situational2%1 snap
42Matt OrzechLS · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Brian AllenCDerion KendrickDBRuss YeastDBBryce PerkinsQBLance McCutcheonWRVan JeffersonWR
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Mariota pass−24% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(1:18) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass deep middle intended for 89-B.Edwards INTERCEPTED by 5-J.Ramsey at LA -2. 5-J.Ramsey pushed ob at LA 23 for 25 yards (67-D.Dalman).
Q4 1:18 · Falcons · 3rd & 13 at LA 24 · gained nothing · -3.93 EP · −23.9% win probability
150 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 163 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, manual charting on 130. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 78 yards from the LA 21 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
163 of 163 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
163
EPA per play
-0.10
Success rate
45%
Yards
600
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR59+0.0563%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.3168%
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR15-0.5633%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9-0.4644%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR7-0.9071%
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.5640%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Falcons3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Rams1 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
No good15 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Rams 14
Falcons0Rams6
Falcons0Rams7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Rams 34 to the Falcons 1
The period ended7 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 48
2nd quarter47 plays
Turnover on downs2 plays
Falcons0Rams13
Falcons0Rams14
Touchdown10 plays, from midfield to the Falcons 8
Falcons3Rams14
Field goal13 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Rams 5
Intercepted7 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Falcons 23
Intercepted4 plays, from the Falcons 20 to the Rams 44
Falcons3Rams20
Falcons3Rams21
Touchdown4 plays, from the Falcons 9 to the Falcons 3
The period ended7 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 44
3rd quarter36 plays
Falcons3Rams27
Falcons3Rams28
Touchdown12 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Falcons 10
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 26
Intercepted2 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Rams 33
Falcons9Rams28
Falcons10Rams28
Touchdown7 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Rams 4
The period ended10 plays, from the Rams 21 to the Falcons 40
4th quarter47 plays
Falcons10Rams31
Field goal7 plays, from the Falcons 36 to the Falcons 1
Falcons16Rams31
Falcons17Rams31
Touchdown10 plays, from the Falcons 28 to the Rams 11
Falcons23Rams31
Touchdown9 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 44
Falcons25Rams31
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 31
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
The period ended6 plays, from the Rams 37 to the Rams 20
Falcons27Rams31
The period ended7 plays, from the Rams 23 to the Rams 28
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket, the sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, three linebackers and seven backsIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThree
Fumble lost2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Rams -10.5
Closing total
46.5
Falcons moneyline
+385
Rams moneyline
-473
Rams closed -10.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 58 — over by 11.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
Falcons 7 days · Rams 10 days
Coaches
Arthur Smith vs Sean McVay
4th · 2:44LA +4% win prob(2:44) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass short left to 5-D.London pushed ob at LA 21 for 9 yards (53-E.Jones).
4th · 5:06ATL +4% win prob(5:06) 11-R.Dixon punt is BLOCKED by 44-T.Andersen, Center-42-M.Orzech, RECOVERED by ATL-9-L.Carter at LA 26. 9-L.Carter for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
