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1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Giantshigher on Panthers166 of 174 plays carry both curves
(3:38) 9-G.Gano 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.
Swing +22.6 for GiantsExpected points +2.46 for GiantsThe model had Giants 9 points higher than the market did.play 155
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 3:38NYG +23% win prob(3:38) 9-G.Gano 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.
4th · 12:31NYG +16% win prob(12:31) 22-C.McCaffrey left guard to NYG 26 for 49 yards (37-F.Moreau).
4th · 2:42CAR +15% win prob(2:42) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at CAR 37 for -9 yards (20-J.Love).
4th · 14:44NYG +13% win prob(14:44) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep left to 13-D.Sills to CAR 41 for 24 yards (7-S.Thompson).
4th · 1:50NYG +10% win prob(1:50) 8-D.Jones scrambles up the middle to CAR 49 for 11 yards (49-F.Luvu).
4th · 4:25CAR +9% win prob(4:25) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones scrambles right end to CAR 31 for 2 yards (49-F.Luvu). PENALTY on NYG-76-J.Feliciano, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 33 - No Play.
3rd · 9:27
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Graham Gano's 56-yard field goal with 3:38 left in the 4th put New York Giants ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st12:53Graham Gano·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Kreiter+30–3
1st2:33Graham Gano·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Kreiter+30–6
2nd12:19Eddy Pineiro·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.Jansen+33–6
2nd0:59Eddy Pineiro·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.Jansen+36–6
3rd9:27Daniel Bellinger·16-yd TD catch16-yard touchdown catchfrom Daniel Jonesfrom Daniel Jones+713–13
4th12:35Graham Gano·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Kreiter+313–16
4th10:50Eddy Pineiro·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.Jansen+316–16
4th3:38Graham Gano·56-yd field goal56-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.KreiterLead never changed again+316–19
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Pantherscategory by categoryGiants
Panthers4–4Giants
275Total yards267
5.1Yards per play3.9
44%Success rate32%
17%Third-down rate35%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
3Explosive plays6
14First downs16
2Sacks taken3
2Turnovers0
The read
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Giants, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.05Panthers: −0.05 expected points added per play
−0.14Giants: −0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.31Panthers: −0.31 expected points added per play
−0.03Giants: −0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.48Panthers: +0.48 expected points added per play
−0.32Giants: −0.32 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 54 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Giants’s 68 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 4, Giants 3.
NotePanthers outgained Giants 275-267 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYG's pass rate over expected turned over: −14.8 pts in week 1 against +5.5 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
68 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points.
NYG's play-action rate turned over: 46.7% in week 1 against 18.6% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 19 pts
inside their normal wobble · +6.8 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.90× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Giants11.1%
inside their normal wobble · −5.7 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.68× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
NoteCAR's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 14.0%, 16.0 points below their season mean of 29.9% and 1.5 times their own 10.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Giants→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.McCaffrey left+17% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(12:31) 22-C.McCaffrey left guard to NYG 26 for 49 yards (37-F.Moreau).
Q4 12:31 · Panthers · 1st & 10 at CAR 25 · gained 49 · +3.14 EP · +17.3% win probability
164 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 174 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps, manual charting on 151. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 75 yards from the NYG 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
174 of 174 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
174
EPA per play
-0.08
Success rate
40%
Yards
540
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51-0.1969%
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44-0.0764%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.1511%
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.0233%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Giants0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Giants3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Fumble lost1 play
Panthers0Giants3
Field goal4 plays, from the Panthers 22 to the Panthers 18
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 48
Panthers0Giants6
Field goal13 plays, from the Panthers 40 to the Panthers 2
The period ended9 plays, from the Panthers 29 to the Panthers 48
2nd quarter43 plays
Panthers3Giants6
Field goal7 plays, from the Giants 49 to the Giants 13
Punt8 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 38
Punt8 plays, from the Panthers 20 to the Panthers 48
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 11 to the Giants 15
Panthers6Giants6
Field goal11 plays, from the Giants 48 to the Giants 12
The period ended5 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 34
3rd quarter48 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 26
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.7 seconds
Panthers12Giants6
Panthers13Giants6
Touchdown4 plays, from the Panthers 33 to the Giants 16
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Panthers13Giants12
Panthers13Giants13
Touchdown10 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Panthers 16
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 39 to the Giants 46
Punt7 plays, from the Giants 15 to the Giants 31
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 35 to the Panthers 43
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 10 to the Giants 15
Punt4 plays
The period ended3 plays, from the Giants 9 to the Giants 24
4th quarter48 plays
Panthers13Giants16
Field goal8 plays, from the Giants 22 to the Panthers 33
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Panthers16Giants16
Field goal8 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Giants 15
Panthers16Giants19
Field goal13 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Panthers 29
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, three linebackers and seven backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 46
The period ended12 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Panthers 45
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
