2022 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 18, 2022 · MetLife Stadium

Carolina Panthers

New York GiantsWinner

CAR -1 upsetU 44 ✓Panthers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New York Giants 19–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 3:38, NYG +23% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 3:38CAR 16 — NYG 19NYG ball · 4th & 18CAR 57%

(3:38) 9-G.Gano 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 3:38NYG +23% win prob(3:38) 9-G.Gano 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.
Q4 · 12:31NYG +16% win prob(12:31) 22-C.McCaffrey left guard to NYG 26 for 49 yards (37-F.Moreau).
Q4 · 2:42CAR +15% win prob(2:42) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at CAR 37 for -9 yards (20-J.Love).
Q4 · 14:44NYG +13% win prob(14:44) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep left to 13-D.Sills to CAR 41 for 24 yards (7-S.Thompson).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 12:53NYG Field goal
(12:53) 9-G.Gano 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.
Score after this play: CAR 0 — NYG 3
Q1 · 2:33NYG Field goal
(2:33) 9-G.Gano 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.
Score after this play: CAR 0 — NYG 6
Q2 · 12:19CAR Field goal
(12:19) 4-E.Pineiro 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: CAR 3 — NYG 6
Q2 · 0:59CAR Field goal
(:59) 4-E.Pineiro 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: CAR 6 — NYG 6
Q3 · 12:33CAR Touchdown
(12:33) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 2-D.Moore for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 13 — NYG 6
Q3 · 9:27NYG Touchdown
(9:27) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 82-D.Bellinger for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 13 — NYG 13
Q4 · 12:35NYG Field goal
(12:35) 9-G.Gano 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.
Score after this play: CAR 13 — NYG 16
Q4 · 10:50CAR Field goal
(10:50) 4-E.Pineiro 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: CAR 16 — NYG 16
Q4 · 3:38NYG Field goal
(3:38) 9-G.Gano 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.
Score after this play: CAR 16 — NYG 19

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Panthers	Giants
Offensive plays	54	68
Total yards	275 (edge)	267
Yards per play	5.1 (edge)	3.9
Expected points added / play	-0.05 (edge)	-0.14
Success rate	44% (edge)	32%
Dropback rate	67%	63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.31	-0.03 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.48 (edge)	-0.32
Third downs	2/12	6/17 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	14	16 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Panthers outgained Giants 275–267 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYG

Daniel JonesQB

22/34, 176 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-2.7 expected points added · -1.6% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Baker MayfieldQB

14/29, 145 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-7.7 expected points added · -15.7% completion over expected

Rushing · CAR

Christian McCaffreyRB

15 att, 102 yds, 0 TD

7.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYG

Saquon BarkleyRB

21 att, 72 yds, 0 TD

-6.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYG

Richie JamesWR

5/6 for 51 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 2.1 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

D.J. MooreWR

3/6 for 43 yds, 1 TD

22% of team targets · 0.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CAR	—	1	0	0:08	Fumble
2	NYG	CAR 22	4	4	2:02	Field goal +3
3	CAR	CAR 25	6	10	2:33	Fumble
4	NYG	CAR 40	13	25	7:47	Field goal +3
5	CAR	CAR 29	14	58	5:15	Field goal +3
6	NYG	NYG 25	7	18	3:26	Punt
7	CAR	CAR 20	7	28	2:45	Punt
8	NYG	NYG 11	4	4	0:45	Punt
9	CAR	NYG 48	10	34	4:23	Field goal +3
10	NYG	NYG 25	4	9	0:56	End of half
11	NYG	NYG 25	5	-1	1:33	Punt
12	CAR	CAR 33	4	62	1:00	Touchdown +7
13	NYG	NYG 25	10	75	3:08	Touchdown +7
14	CAR	CAR 39	7	15	2:40	Punt
15	NYG	NYG 15	6	16	1:48	Punt
16	CAR	CAR 35	4	8	1:37	Punt
17	NYG	NYG 10	4	0	1:50	Punt
18	CAR	CAR 41	4	0	0:29	Punt
19	NYG	NYG 9	9	45	3:24	Field goal +3
20	CAR	CAR 25	6	55	1:45	Field goal +3
21	NYG	NYG 25	12	47	7:12	Field goal +3
22	CAR	CAR 25	6	5	1:28	Punt
23	NYG	NYG 25	7	25	2:06	End of game

9 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Giants gained 75 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	14/29	145	1	0	2	-7.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	15	102	6.8	7.5
Baker Mayfield	6	35	5.8	-0.2
D'Onta Foreman	2	9	4.5	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
D.J. Moore	3	6	43	1	22%	0.2
Robbie Chosen	3	5	32	0	19%	-2.1
Christian McCaffrey	4	5	26	0	19%	-0.3
Giovanni Ricci	1	1	16	0	4%	1.7
Stephen Sullivan	1	1	13	0	4%	0.8
Ian Thomas	1	3	13	0	11%	0.3
Shi Smith	1	6	2	0	22%	-5.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Xavier Woods	5	5	0.0	0
Shaq Thompson	4	4	0.0	0
Frankie Luvu	7	0	0.0	1
Jeremy Chinn	3	2	0.0	0
Brian Burns	4	0	2.0	0
Derrick Brown	0	3	0.0	1
C.J. Henderson	2	1	0.0	0
Yetur Gross-Matos	1	2	0.0	0
Jaycee Horn	2	1	0.0	0
Marquan McCall	2	1	0.0	0

New York Giants

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Daniel Jones	22/34	176	1	0	3	-2.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Saquon Barkley	21	72	3.4	-6.5
Daniel Jones	10	21	2.1	-1.1
Gary Brightwell	1	14	14.0	1.1
Matt Breida	1	-4	-4.0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Richie James	5	6	51	0	19%	2.1
David Sills	3	4	37	0	13%	3.1
Sterling Shepard	6	10	34	0	31%	-3.1
Tanner Hudson	2	3	22	0	9%	1.3
Saquon Barkley	3	4	16	0	13%	-0.4
Daniel Bellinger	1	1	16	1	3%	2.4
Kadarius Toney	2	3	0	0	9%	-1.7
Matt Breida	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Julian Love	6	0	1.0	0
Dexter Lawrence	2	3	0.0	0
Xavier McKinney	3	2	0.0	2
Dane Belton	5	0	0.0	0
Adoree' Jackson	2	1	0.0	1
Austin Calitro	2	1	0.0	0
Fabian Moreau	1	1	0.0	0
Chris Myarick	2	0	0.0	0
Oshane Ximines	2	0	1.0	0
Nicholas Williams	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CAR -1
Closing total: 44
CAR moneyline: -114
NYG moneyline: +103

Panthers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44; the game landed 35 — under by 9.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: CAR 7 days · NYG 7 days
Coaches: Matt Rhule vs Brian Daboll