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Green Bay Packers 27, Bears 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 6:24, 2nd and 10, on E.St. — 12.0 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 6:24 · 2nd and 10
E.St.
Bears
(6:24) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep left to 19-E.St. Brown to GB 25 for 30 yards (31-A.Amos) [91-P.Smith].
Packers closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 17.
Green Bay Packers 27–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 6:24, Bears +12.0% win probability on one snap.
12.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Justin FieldsBearsQ1 4:42(4:42) 1-J.Fields right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7.1pts
Aaron JonesPackersQ2 15:00(15:00) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones right end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.8pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Packers won this one — +0.44 expected points per dropback, against Bears at -0.47 expected points per dropback.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Packers won this one — 5 of 9 on third down, against Bears at 1 of 7 on third down.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Packers won this one — 55% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bears at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Packers won this one — +0.21 expected points per snap, against Bears at -0.08 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 29 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Bears136 of 147 plays carry both curves
(6:24) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep left to 19-E.St. Brown to GB 25 for 30 yards (31-A.Amos) [91-P.Smith].
Swing −12.0 for PackersExpected points −2.54 for PackersThe model had Bears 27 points higher than the market did.play 22
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 6:24GB +12% win prob(6:24) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep left to 19-E.St. Brown to GB 25 for 30 yards (31-A.Amos) [91-P.Smith].
2nd · 15:00GB +9% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones right end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 4:42GB +7% win prob(4:42) 1-J.Fields right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 12:41CHI +6% win prob(12:41) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at GB 28 for -11 yards (94-R.Quinn).
2nd · 6:50GB +5% win prob(6:50) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 87-R.Doubs to CHI 22 for 20 yards (4-E.Jackson; 53-N.Morrow).
1st · 10:10GB +5% win prob(10:10) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 33-A.Jones to CHI 13 for 15 yards (53-N.Morrow).
1st · 7:06CHI +5% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Aaron Jones's 15-yard rushing touchdown with 15:00 left in the 2nd put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:37Mason Crosby·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap J.Coco+30–3
3rd5:16Cairo Santos·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder T.Gill · snap P.Scales+310–24
4th2:32Mason Crosby·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap J.Coco+310–27
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bearscategory by categoryPackers
Bears0–7Packers
228Total yards415
5.6Yards per play6.4
41%Success rate55%
14%Third-down rate56%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
8Explosive plays9
11First downs23
3Sacks taken3
1Turnovers1
The read
Packers ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.47 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.08Bears: −0.08 expected points added per play
+0.21Packers: +0.21 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.47Bears: −0.47 expected points added per play
+0.44Packers: +0.44 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.18Bears: +0.18 expected points added per play
+0.02Packers: +0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 41 snaps at a 39% dropback rate against Packers’s 65 at 45%. Red-zone trips: Bears 2, Packers 5.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.08.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
GB's blitz rate sent, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 3.3 points clear of the next team along.
16 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.0 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
CHI's pass rate over expected, −24.8 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 6.6 points clear of the next team along.
41 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points.
GB's early-down pass rate turned over: 68.8% in week 1 against 39.3% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
56 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32 pts to 19 pts
leaned — got home · +5.7 vs their 8.1%, and they swing ±3.4 week to week (+1.70× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Packers31.3%
leaned — got home · +14.5 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+1.83× that swing) · 16 dropbacks
NoteGB's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 22.8 points below their season mean of 22.8% and 1.9 times their own 12.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Chicago Bears
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
65Cody WhitehairG · Every snap100%41 snaps
67Sam MustipherC · Every snap100%41 snaps
75Larry BoromT · Every snap100%41 snaps
70Braxton JonesT · Every snap100%41 snaps
1Justin FieldsQB · Every snap100%41 snaps
11Darnell MooneyWR · Full-time90%37 snaps
85Cole KmetTE · Full-time85%35 snaps
32David MontgomeryRB · Full-time80%33 snaps
19Equanimeous St. BrownWR · Heavy rotation71%29 snaps
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Jones right+12% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(15:00) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones right end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 15:00 · Packers · 2nd & 11 at CHI 15 · gained 15 · +2.81 EP · +11.9% win probability
134 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 147 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 147 snaps, manual charting on 121. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 89 yards from the CHI 10 for a turnover on downs. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
147 of 147 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
147
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
46%
Yards
642
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29+0.2855%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR25+0.1628%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR22-0.5550%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR12+0.5017%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10+0.2340%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.3317%
Packers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Bears2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
147 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
147 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Bears0Packers3
Field goal16 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Bears 13
How the play was built
A trick play, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.1 seconds
Bears6Packers3
Bears7Packers3
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bears 29 to the Packers 3
The period ended10 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Bears 14
2nd quarter45 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Bears7Packers9
Bears7Packers10
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt5 plays
Bears7Packers16
Bears7Packers17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Packers 46 to the Bears 8
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 15 to the Bears 19
Bears7Packers23
Bears7Packers24
Touchdown9 plays, from the Packers 33 to the Bears 5
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter28 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 22 to the Bears 29
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Packers 14 to the Bears 28
Bears10Packers24
Field goal7 plays, from the Bears 31 to the Packers 23
The period ended10 plays, from the Packers 24 to the Packers 46
4th quarter37 plays
Punt1 play
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Bears 10 to the Packers 1
Bears10Packers27
Field goal14 plays, from the Packers 1 to the Bears 10
Intercepted3 plays
The period ended5 plays, from the Bears 39 to the Bears 28
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
