2022 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 18, 2022 · Lambeau Field

Chicago Bears

Green Bay PackersWinner

GB -10.5 ✓U 42 ✓Packers closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 17.

Green Bay Packers 27–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 6:24, GB +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 6:24CHI 0 — GB 3CHI ball · 2nd & 10GB 85%

(6:24) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep left to 19-E.St. Brown to GB 25 for 30 yards (31-A.Amos) [91-P.Smith].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 6:24GB +12% win prob(6:24) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep left to 19-E.St. Brown to GB 25 for 30 yards (31-A.Amos) [91-P.Smith].
Q2 · 15:00GB +9% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones right end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 4:42GB +7% win prob(4:42) 1-J.Fields right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 12:41CHI +6% win prob(12:41) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at GB 28 for -11 yards (94-R.Quinn).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 8:37GB Field goal
(8:37) 2-M.Crosby 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
Score after this play: CHI 0 — GB 3
Q1 · 4:42CHI Touchdown
(4:42) 1-J.Fields right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CHI 7 — GB 3
Q2 · 15:00GB Touchdown
(15:00) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones right end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CHI 7 — GB 10
Q2 · 4:40GB Touchdown
(4:40) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 33-A.Jones for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CHI 7 — GB 17
Q2 · 0:35GB Touchdown
(:35) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 13-A.Lazard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CHI 7 — GB 24
Q3 · 5:16CHI Field goal
(5:16) 2-C.Santos 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
Score after this play: CHI 10 — GB 24
Q4 · 2:32GB Field goal
(2:32) 2-M.Crosby 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
Score after this play: CHI 10 — GB 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bears	Packers
Offensive plays	41	65
Total yards	228	415 (edge)
Yards per play	5.6	6.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.08	0.21 (edge)
Success rate	41%	55% (edge)
Dropback rate	39%	45%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.47	0.44 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.18 (edge)	0.02
Third downs	1/7	5/9 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	11	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	3
Turnovers	1	1

Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.08.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

19/25, 234 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

11.5 expected points added · +4.7% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Justin FieldsQB

7/11, 70 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-6.4 expected points added · -1.7% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

Aaron JonesRB

15 att, 132 yds, 1 TD

8.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

David MontgomeryRB

15 att, 122 yds, 0 TD

7.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Sammy WatkinsWR

3/4 for 93 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · 6.3 expected points added

Receiving · CHI

Equanimeous St. BrownWR

2/4 for 39 yds, 0 TD

36% of team targets · -0.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	GB	GB 25	14	43	6:27	Field goal +3
2	CHI	CHI 29	9	71	3:56	Touchdown +7
3	GB	GB 25	11	70	4:43	Touchdown +7
4	CHI	CHI 20	5	-2	2:05	Punt
5	GB	GB 39	4	-11	0:59	Punt
6	CHI	CHI 20	4	8	1:39	Punt
7	GB	GB 46	10	64	5:35	Touchdown +7
8	CHI	CHI 15	5	4	1:26	Punt
9	GB	GB 33	8	67	2:38	Touchdown +7
10	CHI	CHI 25	2	3	0:32	End of half
11	CHI	CHI 22	5	7	2:00	Punt
12	GB	GB 14	6	58	3:47	Fumble
13	CHI	CHI 31	7	43	4:02	Field goal +3
14	GB	GB 24	9	24	5:18	Punt
15	CHI	CHI 10	13	94	6:46	Turnover on downs
16	GB	GB 1	10	89	5:39	Field goal +3
17	CHI	CHI 19	3	0	0:19	Interception
18	GB	CHI 39	4	11	2:09	End of game

7 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 94 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Fields	7/11	70	0	1	3	-6.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
David Montgomery	15	122	8.1	0	7.0
Khalil Herbert	4	38	9.5	0	1.4
Justin Fields	8	20	2.5	1	-5.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Equanimeous St. Brown	2	4	39	36%	-0.0
Ryan Griffin	1	1	18	9%	1.2
David Montgomery	2	2	14	18%	-0.8
Khalil Herbert	1	1	3	9%	-0.2
Cole Kmet	0	1	0	9%	-0.4
Darnell Mooney	1	2	-4	18%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Nicholas Morrow	7	4	0.0	0
Eddie Jackson	6	3	0.0	0
Justin Jones	5	3	0.0	0
Roquan Smith	2	6	0.0	0
Jaquan Brisker	4	3	0.0	0
Kyler Gordon	3	3	0.0	1
Trevis Gipson	2	2	2.0	0
Al-Quadin Muhammad	2	0	0.0	0
Robert Quinn	2	0	1.0	0
Angelo Blackson	1	1	0.0	0

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	19/25	234	2	0	3	11.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Aaron Jones	15	132	8.8	1	8.1
A.J. Dillon	18	61	3.4	0	-0.4
Aaron Rodgers	5	10	2.0	0	-7.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Sammy Watkins	3	4	93	0	16%	6.3
Aaron Jones	3	3	38	1	12%	5.3
Randall Cobb	3	3	37	0	12%	3.5
Romeo Doubs	2	3	27	0	12%	-0.2
Allen Lazard	2	3	13	1	12%	2.7
Robert Tonyan	2	2	11	0	8%	0.5
Christian Watson	3	3	9	0	12%	-1.1
A.J. Dillon	1	3	6	0	12%	-0.9
Tyler Davis	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Preston Smith	4	3	2.0	0	0
Darnell Savage	5	0	0.0	0	0
Quay Walker	3	2	0.0	0	1
Adrian Amos	2	2	0.0	0	0
Dean Lowry	2	1	0.0	0	0
Rasul Douglas	2	1	0.0	0	0
Dallin Leavitt	2	1	0.0	0	0
Jarran Reed	2	1	0.0	0	0
De'Vondre Campbell	1	2	0.0	0	0
Jaire Alexander	1	1	0.0	1	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: GB -10.5
Closing total: 42
CHI moneyline: +348
GB moneyline: -420

Packers closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 17.

Total closed 42; the game landed 37 — under by 5.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lambeau Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: CHI 7 days · GB 7 days
Coaches: Matt Eberflus vs Matt LaFleur

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.