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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
Cincinnati Bengals 17 at Dallas Cowboys 20. Final.
Bengals -7.5 upsetU 42 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 2
Dallas Cowboys 20, Bengals 17 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:03, 3rd and 7, on Brett Maher — 30.2 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:03 · 3rd and 7
Brett Maher
Cowboys
(:03) 19-B.Maher 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Dome
Bengals closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Dallas Cowboys 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, Cowboys +30.2% win probability on one snap.
30.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Ja'Marr ChaseBengalsQ4 6:03(6:03) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase to DAL 19 for 8 yards (7-T.Diggs) [11-M.Parsons].
14.5pts
Unnamed on the sheetCowboysQ4 1:09(1:09) 10-K.Huber punts 63 yards to DAL 21, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 9-K.Turpin ran ob at DAL 35 for 14 yards (51-M.Bailey).
17.0pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Cowboys won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Bengals at 3 chunk plays.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Cowboys at 1 giveaway.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Cowboys won this one — -0.09 expected points per carry, against Bengals at -0.20 expected points per carry.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 17 on third down, against Cowboys at 3 of 10 on third down.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 20.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 36 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cowboys.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Bengals165 of 176 plays carry both curves
(:03) 19-B.Maher 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Swing +30.2 for CowboysExpected points +0.82 for CowboysThe model had Cowboys 2 points higher than the market did.play 175
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:03DAL +30% win prob(:03) 19-B.Maher 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.
4th · 1:09CIN +17% win prob(1:09) 10-K.Huber punts 63 yards to DAL 21, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 9-K.Turpin ran ob at DAL 35 for 14 yards (51-M.Bailey).
4th · 6:03DAL +14% win prob(6:03) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase to DAL 19 for 8 yards (7-T.Diggs) [11-M.Parsons].
1st · 0:39DAL +14% win prob(:39) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short left to 20-T.Pollard for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short left to 20-T.Pollard to CIN 1 for 46 yards (24-V.Bell).
4th · 3:51DAL +14% win prob(3:51) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 85-T.Higgins for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:45DAL +12% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 9-J.Burrow pass to 83-T.Boyd is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Brett Maher's 50-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st8:41Noah Brown·9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Cooper Rushfrom Cooper Rush+70–7
1st3:08Evan McPherson·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Adomitis+33–7
2nd0:14Brett Maher·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap J.McQuaide+33–17
3rd9:45Evan McPherson·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Adomitis+36–17
3rd4:08Evan McPherson·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Adomitis+39–17
4th3:51Tee Higgins·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow · two-point good+817–17
4th0:03Brett Maher·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap J.McQuaideLead never changed again+317–20
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bengalscategory by categoryCowboys
Bengals2–7Cowboys
257Total yards337
3.8Yards per play5.8
39%Success rate40%
35%Third-down rate30%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
3Explosive plays6
17First downs19
6Sacks taken1
0Turnovers1
The read
Cowboys ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bengals, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.04Bengals: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.00Cowboys: −0.00 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.16Bengals: +0.16 expected points added per play
+0.07Cowboys: +0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.20Bengals: −0.20 expected points added per play
−0.09Cowboys: −0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 67 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 58 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 1, Cowboys 2.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 29 pts
right on their number · −1.2 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.20× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Cowboys19.6%
right on their number · +2.8 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.33× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
NoteCIN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -5.0 pts, 13.0 points below their season mean of 8.0 pts and 1.7 times their own 7.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
—Jonah WilliamsT · Every snap100%70 snaps
67Cordell VolsonG · Every snap100%70 snaps
65Alex CappaG · Every snap100%70 snaps
64Ted KarrasC · Every snap100%70 snaps
71La'el CollinsT · Every snap100%70 snaps
9Joe BurrowQB · Every snap100%70 snaps
1Ja'Marr ChaseWR · Full-time96%67 snaps
85Tee HigginsWR · Full-time89%62 snaps
88Hayden HurstTE · Full-time81%57 snaps
83Tyler BoydWR · Full-time81%57 snaps
28Joe MixonRB · Heavy rotation76%53 snaps
84Mitchell WilcoxTE · Rotational27%19 snaps
34Samaje PerineRB · Situational20%14 snaps
89Drew SampleTE · Situational14%10 snaps
70D'Ante SmithG · Situational9%6 snaps
17Stanley MorganWR · Situational4%3 snaps
25Chris EvansRB · Situational1%1 snap
80Mike ThomasWR · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 5
Jay TufeleDTHakeem AdenijiGMax ScharpingGTrayveon WilliamsRBDevin AsiasiTE
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Brett Maher+28% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:03) 19-B.Maher 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Q4 0:03 · Cowboys · 3rd & 7 at CIN 32 · gained nothing · +0.82 EP · +27.9% win probability
163 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps, manual charting on 151. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 83 yards from the CIN 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
36%
Yards
593
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54+0.0274%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR29-0.1924%
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23+0.2396%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.4240%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.030%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Bengals0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR3——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Bengals0Cowboys6
Bengals0Cowboys7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Bengals 9
Bengals3Cowboys7
Field goal11 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Cowboys 23
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.2 seconds
Bengals3Cowboys13
Bengals3Cowboys14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Bengals 1
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter48 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Bengals 19 to the Bengals 31
Punt7 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 48
The period ended12 plays, from the Bengals 15 to the Cowboys 42
Punt8 plays, from the Cowboys 11 to the Bengals 47
The period ended8 plays, from the Bengals 13 to the Bengals 33
Bengals3Cowboys17
Field goal7 plays, from the Bengals 49 to the Bengals 36
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Bengals6Cowboys17
Field goal15 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Cowboys 32
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 28
Bengals9Cowboys17
Field goal8 plays, from the Bengals 41 to the Cowboys 24
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Bengals 35
The period ended3 plays, from the Bengals 26 to the Bengals 31
4th quarter49 plays
Punt3 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 26 to the Cowboys 46
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.0 seconds
Bengals15Cowboys17
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Bengals17Cowboys17
Touchdown22 plays, from the Bengals 17 to the Cowboys 5
Punt6 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 49
The period ended5 plays, from the Bengals 8 to the Bengals 16
Bengals17Cowboys20
Field goal7 plays, from the Cowboys 35 to the Bengals 32
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
