2022 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 18, 2022 · Empower Field at Mile High

Houston Texans

Denver BroncosWinner

DEN -10.5 no coverU 46 ✓Broncos closed -10.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.

Denver Broncos 16–9. Biggest swing: Q4 15:00, DEN +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 15:00HOU 9 — DEN 6DEN ball · 3rd & 16HOU 50%

(15:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton to HOU 33 for 35 yards (36-J.Owens).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 15:00DEN +13% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton to HOU 33 for 35 yards (36-J.Owens).
Q2 · 2:00DEN +10% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton pushed ob at HOU 16 for 34 yards (24-D.Stingley).
Q3 · 6:35DEN +10% win prob(6:35) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 14-C.Sutton to HOU 44 for 6 yards (24-D.Stingley). HOU-24-D.Stingley was injured during the play.
Q3 · 13:47HOU +10% win prob(13:47) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle intended for 14-C.Sutton INTERCEPTED by 58-C.Kirksey at DEN 45. 58-C.Kirksey to DEN 45 for no gain (14-C.Sutton).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 5:33DEN Field goal
(5:33) 8-B.McManus 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.
Score after this play: HOU 0 — DEN 3
Q1 · 2:23HOU Field goal
(2:23) 7-K.Fairbairn 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
Score after this play: HOU 3 — DEN 3
Q2 · 7:24HOU Field goal
(7:24) 7-K.Fairbairn 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
Score after this play: HOU 6 — DEN 3
Q2 · 0:23DEN Field goal
(:23) 8-B.McManus 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.
Score after this play: HOU 6 — DEN 6
Q3 · 8:36HOU Field goal
(8:36) 7-K.Fairbairn 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
Score after this play: HOU 9 — DEN 6
Q4 · 12:42DEN Touchdown
(12:42) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 82-E.Saubert for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 9 — DEN 13
Q4 · 3:41DEN Field goal
(3:41) 8-B.McManus 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman. Penalty on HOU-1-T.Smith, Defensive Offside, declined.
Score after this play: HOU 9 — DEN 16

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Texans	Broncos
Offensive plays	58	64
Total yards	235	351 (edge)
Yards per play	4.1	5.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.18	-0.02 (edge)
Success rate	36% (edge)	36%
Dropback rate	71%	55%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.28	-0.00 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.05 (edge)	-0.04
Third downs	2/13	3/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8	8
First downs gained on snaps	13	17 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	3
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.18.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Russell WilsonQB

14/31, 219 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

0.3 expected points added · -12.6% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

Davis MillsQB

19/38, 177 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-11.5 expected points added · -13.7% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

Javonte WilliamsRB

15 att, 75 yds, 0 TD

2.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

Dameon PierceRB

15 att, 69 yds, 0 TD

0.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Courtland SuttonWR

7/11 for 122 yds, 0 TD

39% of team targets · 8.5 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Nico CollinsWR

4/9 for 58 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · -1.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	HOU	HOU 25	5	8	1:31	Punt
2	DEN	DEN 8	7	34	2:43	Punt
3	HOU	HOU 20	7	16	2:58	Punt
4	DEN	DEN 35	8	31	2:18	Field goal +3
5	HOU	HOU 24	11	49	3:11	Field goal +3
6	DEN	DEN 25	10	16	4:27	Punt
7	HOU	HOU 20	10	64	5:32	Field goal +3
8	DEN	DEN 18	7	14	1:42	Punt
9	HOU	HOU 33	4	-2	1:34	Punt
10	DEN	DEN 24	9	83	3:44	Field goal +3
11	HOU	HOU 25	2	0	0:20	End of half
12	DEN	DEN 25	3	4	1:18	Interception
13	HOU	DEN 45	11	34	5:09	Field goal +3
14	DEN	DEN 25	10	44	5:31	Punt
15	HOU	HOU 9	4	4	1:29	Punt
16	DEN	DEN 38	7	77	3:56	Touchdown +7
17	HOU	HOU 25	7	25	2:49	Punt
18	DEN	DEN 14	12	49	6:12	Field goal +3
19	HOU	HOU 25	7	38	2:14	Turnover on downs
20	DEN	DEN 38	4	-1	0:29	Punt
21	HOU	HOU 25	4	-1	0:40	Turnover on downs
22	DEN	HOU 24	1	0	0:13	End of game

7 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 83 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Davis Mills	19/38	177	0	0	3	-11.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Dameon Pierce	15	69	4.6	0.1
Jeff Driskel	1	10	10.0	1.3
Davis Mills	2	1	0.5	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Nico Collins	4	9	58	24%	-1.4
Brandin Cooks	4	10	54	27%	-3.0
Pharaoh Brown	3	5	24	14%	0.6
Chris Moore	2	4	14	11%	-0.4
Rex Burkhead	2	3	9	8%	-1.5
Dameon Pierce	1	1	8	3%	0.6
O.J. Howard	1	1	7	3%	0.3
Brevin Jordan	2	4	3	11%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jonathan Owens	5	4	0.0	0	0
Derek Stingley	8	0	0.0	0	2
Rasheem Green	3	2	1.5	0	0
Jalen Pitre	2	3	0.0	0	0
Kamu Grugier-Hill	3	2	0.0	0	0
Christian Kirksey	3	1	0.5	1	1
Steven Nelson	3	1	0.0	0	1
Kevin Pierre-Louis	1	2	0.0	0	0
Desmond King	1	1	0.0	0	1
Ogbonnia Okoronkwo	1	1	0.0	0	0

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	14/31	219	1	1	3	0.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Javonte Williams	15	75	5.0	2.2
Melvin Gordon	10	47	4.7	-2.3
Montrell Washington	1	19	19.0	1.2
Courtland Sutton	1	5	5.0	0.2
Russell Wilson	2	3	1.5	-2.2
Jerry Jeudy	1	1	1.0	-0.7
Andrew Beck	1	-1	-1.0	-1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Courtland Sutton	7	11	122	0	39%	8.5
Tyrie Cleveland	2	3	28	0	11%	1.7
Eric Saubert	1	2	22	1	7%	2.0
Kendall Hinton	1	1	20	0	4%	1.9
Jerry Jeudy	1	3	11	0	11%	-0.7
Javonte Williams	1	4	10	0	14%	-2.3
Melvin Gordon	1	1	6	0	4%	-0.8
Montrell Washington	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.5
Albert Okwuegbunam	0	2	0	0	7%	-2.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Dre'Mont Jones	4	2	2.0	0
Kareem Jackson	3	3	0.0	0
Damarri Mathis	5	0	0.0	1
Alex Singleton	1	4	0.0	2
Caden Sterns	3	1	0.0	0
K'Waun Williams	3	1	0.0	0
Jonas Griffith	3	0	0.0	0
Randy Gregory	2	1	1.0	0
D.J. Jones	1	1	0.0	0
Patrick Surtain	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DEN -10.5
Closing total: 46
HOU moneyline: +391
DEN moneyline: -481

Broncos closed -10.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 46; the game landed 25 — under by 21.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: HOU 7 days · DEN 6 days
Coaches: Lovie Smith vs Nathaniel Hackett