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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
2022 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 18, 2022 · Empower Field at Mile High
Final
TexansHouston9
BY 7final margin
BroncosDenver16
Houston Texans 9 at Denver Broncos 16. Final.
Broncos -10.5 no coverU 46 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 2
Denver Broncos 16, Texans 9 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 15:00, 3rd and 16, on Courtland Sutton — 13.0 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 15:00 · 3rd and 16
Courtland Sutton
Broncos
(15:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton to HOU 33 for 35 yards (36-J.Owens).
Broncos closed -10.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.
Denver Broncos 16–9. Biggest swing: Q4 15:00, Broncos +13.0% win probability on one snap.
13.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Courtland SuttonBroncosQ2 2:00(2:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton pushed ob at HOU 16 for 34 yards (24-D.Stingley).
10.2pts
Courtland SuttonBroncosQ3 6:35(6:35) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 14-C.Sutton to HOU 44 for 6 yards (24-D.Stingley). HOU-24-D.Stingley was injured during the play.
9.8pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Broncos won this one — -0.00 expected points per dropback, against Texans at -0.28 expected points per dropback.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Texans owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Broncos at 1 giveaway.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Broncos won this one — -0.02 expected points per snap, against Texans at -0.18 expected points per snap.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Broncos won this one — 3 of 12 on third down, against Texans at 2 of 13 on third down.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 16.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Texans170 of 180 plays carry both curves
(15:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton to HOU 33 for 35 yards (36-J.Owens).
Swing +13.0 for BroncosExpected points +3.95 for BroncosThe model had Texans 16 points higher than the market did.play 132
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 15:00DEN +13% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton to HOU 33 for 35 yards (36-J.Owens).
2nd · 2:00DEN +10% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton pushed ob at HOU 16 for 34 yards (24-D.Stingley).
3rd · 6:35DEN +10% win prob(6:35) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 14-C.Sutton to HOU 44 for 6 yards (24-D.Stingley). HOU-24-D.Stingley was injured during the play.
3rd · 13:47HOU +10% win prob(13:47) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle intended for 14-C.Sutton INTERCEPTED by 58-C.Kirksey at DEN 45. 58-C.Kirksey to DEN 45 for no gain (14-C.Sutton).
4th · 12:42DEN +10% win prob(12:42) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 82-E.Saubert for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 10:37HOU +9% win prob(10:37) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills sacked at DEN 45 for -7 yards (93-D.Jones).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Eric Saubert's 22-yard touchdown catch with 12:42 left in the 4th put Denver Broncos ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st5:33Brandon McManus·20-yd field goal20-yard field goalholder C.Waitman · snap J.Bobenmoyer+30–3
1st2:23Ka'imi Fairbairn·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap J.Weeks+33–3
2nd7:24Ka'imi Fairbairn·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap J.Weeks+36–3
2nd0:23Brandon McManus·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder C.Waitman · snap J.Bobenmoyer+36–6
3rd8:36Ka'imi Fairbairn·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap J.Weeks+39–6
4th12:42Eric Saubert·22-yd TD catch22-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell WilsonLead never changed again+79–13
4th3:41Brandon McManus·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder C.Waitman · snap J.Bobenmoyer+39–16
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Texanscategory by categoryBroncos
Texans2–4Broncos
235Total yards351
4.1Yards per play5.5
36%Success rate36%
15%Third-down rate25%
0Red-zone touchdowns0
8Explosive plays8
13First downs17
3Sacks taken3
0Turnovers1
The read
Broncos ahead 4–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Texans, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.18Texans: −0.18 expected points added per play
−0.02Broncos: −0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.28Texans: −0.28 expected points added per play
−0.00Broncos: −0.00 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.05Texans: +0.05 expected points added per play
−0.04Broncos: −0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 58 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Broncos’s 64 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Texans 1, Broncos 3.
NoteBroncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · +2.9 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (+0.35× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Broncos17.1%
inside their normal wobble · +5.0 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.90× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
NoteHOU's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 34.3%, 16.1 points above their season mean of 18.2% and 1.5 times their own 10.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Wilson pass+18% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(15:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton to HOU 33 for 35 yards (36-J.Owens).
Q4 15:00 · Broncos · 3rd & 16 at DEN 32 · gained 35 · +3.95 EP · +18.4% win probability
168 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 180 snaps, manual charting on 158. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 75 yards from the DEN 24 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
35%
Yards
584
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.2678%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31-0.1055%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23+0.0657%
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7-0.3471%
Texans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.1740%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.5340%
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.4340%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.0760%
Texans1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter50 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 33
Punt8 plays, from the Broncos 8 to the Texans 47
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Texans 40
Texans0Broncos3
Field goal9 plays, from the Broncos 35 to the Texans 2
Texans3Broncos3
Field goal12 plays, from the Texans 24 to the Broncos 22
The period ended8 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 44
2nd quarter44 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 49 to the Texans 49
Texans6Broncos3
Field goal12 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Broncos 25
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 18 to the Broncos 32
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 33 to the Texans 38
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Texans6Broncos6
Field goal12 plays, from the Broncos 24 to the Texans 1
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Intercepted4 plays
Texans9Broncos6
Field goal12 plays, from the Broncos 45 to the Broncos 4
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Punt13 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Texans 35
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 9 to the Texans 13
The period ended4 plays, from the Broncos 38 to the Broncos 42
4th quarter49 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.1 seconds
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Texans9Broncos12
Texans9Broncos13
Touchdown5 plays, from the Broncos 32 to the Texans 22
How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
The period ended9 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Broncos 38
Texans9Broncos16
Field goal14 plays, from the Broncos 14 to the Texans 26
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Broncos 32
The period ended8 plays
Turnover on downs4 plays
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
