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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:47 AM ET · 16 to play
Indianapolis Colts 0 at Jacksonville Jaguars 24. Final.
Colts -3 upset
The verdict · 2022 Week 2
Jacksonville Jaguars 24, Colts 0 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 12:21, 3rd and 7, on Matt Ryan — 8.3 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 12:21 · 3rd and 7
Matt Ryan
Jaguars
(12:21) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at IND 38 for -9 yards (41-J.Allen).
U 43.5 ✓
Colts closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Jacksonville Jaguars 24–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 12:21, Jaguars +8.3% win probability on one snap.
8.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Rayshawn JenkinsJaguarsQ1 11:41(11:41) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right intended for 16-A.Dulin INTERCEPTED by 2-R.Jenkins [44-T.Walker] at JAX 22. 2-R.Jenkins to JAX 32 for 10 yards (83-K.Granson).
8.2pts
Zay JonesJaguarsQ1 8:05(8:05) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 7-Z.Jones pushed ob at IND 39 for 8 yards (23-K.Moore).
8.2pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Jaguars won this one — +0.59 expected points per dropback, against Colts at -0.58 expected points per dropback.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Jaguars won this one — no giveaways, against Colts at 3 giveaways.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Jaguars won this one — +0.11 expected points per snap, against Colts at -0.44 expected points per snap.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Jaguars won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Colts at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Colts146 of 156 plays carry both curves
(12:21) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at IND 38 for -9 yards (41-J.Allen).
Swing +8.3 for JaguarsExpected points +2.02 for JaguarsThe model had Jaguars 14 points higher than the market did.play 40
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 12:21IND +8% win prob(12:21) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at IND 38 for -9 yards (41-J.Allen).
1st · 11:41IND +8% win prob(11:41) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right intended for 16-A.Dulin INTERCEPTED by 2-R.Jenkins [44-T.Walker] at JAX 22. 2-R.Jenkins to JAX 32 for 10 yards (83-K.Granson).
1st · 8:05JAX +8% win prob(8:05) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 7-Z.Jones pushed ob at IND 39 for 8 yards (23-K.Moore).
2nd · 11:45JAX +7% win prob(11:45) 6-M.Haack punts 53 yards to JAX 9, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 21 for 12 yards (41-G.Stuard; 20-N.Cross).
1st · 2:27JAX +7% win prob(2:27) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 13-C.Kirk for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 8:41JAX +6% win prob(8:41) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 13-C.Kirk pushed ob at IND 37 for 26 yards (26-R.McLeod).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Christian Kirk's 10-yard touchdown catch with 2:27 left in the 1st put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Jaguars ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.59 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.44Colts: −0.44 expected points added per play
+0.11Jaguars: +0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.58Colts: −0.58 expected points added per play
+0.59Jaguars: +0.59 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.05Colts: −0.05 expected points added per play
−0.28Jaguars: −0.28 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 48 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 66 at 45%. Red-zone trips: Colts 2, Jaguars 3.
NoteJaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.44.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
JAX's sack or hit rate, 34.3%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 3.0 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.9-swing turn from week 1.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.9 points.
JAX's early-down pass rate turned over: 65.3% in week 1 against 37.5% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.0 points.
IND's blitz rate sent turned over: 22.0% in week 1 against 3.3% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 14 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.3 vs their 14.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−1.12× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Jaguars34.3%
leaned — got home · +17.5 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+1.97× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
NoteJAX's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 34.3%, 17.5 points above their season mean of 16.8% and 2.0 times their own 8.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Lawrence pass+10% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(8:05) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 7-Z.Jones pushed ob at IND 39 for 8 yards (23-K.Moore).
Q1 8:05 · Jaguars · 4th & 3 at IND 47 · gained 8 · +3.13 EP · +9.5% win probability
144 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 156 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps, manual charting on 135. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
4 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 92 yards from the JAX 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
156 of 156 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
156
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
34%
Yards
549
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.1959%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.3074%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21+0.1124%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.9550%
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Colts2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Colts2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
156 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
156 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
Intercepted8 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Jaguars 40
Colts0Jaguars6
Colts0Jaguars7
Touchdown18 plays, from the Jaguars 32 to the Colts 10
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 38 to the Colts 43
2nd quarter43 plays
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 44 to the Colts 47
Colts0Jaguars13
Colts0Jaguars14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Jaguars 21 to the Colts 37
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 22 to the Colts 26
Colts0Jaguars17
Field goal10 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Colts 34
Punt9 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 45
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Colts 46
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Colts 41
Colts0Jaguars23
Colts0Jaguars24
Touchdown16 plays, from the Jaguars 8 to the Colts 5
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter44 plays
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Colts 44 to the Jaguars 4
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 13 to the Jaguars 20
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Colts 33 to the Jaguars 8
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 9 to the Jaguars 11
Intercepted2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 46 to the Colts 49
Intercepted1 play
The period ended5 plays, from the Colts 34 to the Colts 29
The period ended3 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 26
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Colts -3
Closing total
43.5
Colts moneyline
-157
Jaguars moneyline
+142
Colts closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 24 — under by 19.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 80°F at kickoff; breezy at 10 mph out of the north-east; 0.34 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
Colts 7 days · Jaguars 7 days
Coaches
Frank Reich vs Doug Pederson
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 8:02
JAX +6% win prob
(8:02) 25-J.Robinson up the middle for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 10:19JAX +4% win prob(10:19) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 11-M.Jones to JAX 46 for 12 yards (31-B.Facyson). Penalty on IND-32-J.Blackmon, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
