2022 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 18, 2022 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Indianapolis Colts

Jacksonville JaguarsWinner

IND -3 upsetU 43.5 ✓Colts closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Jacksonville Jaguars 24–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 12:21, IND +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 12:21IND 0 — JAX 7IND ball · 3rd & 7JAX 61%

(12:21) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at IND 38 for -9 yards (41-J.Allen).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 12:21IND +8% win prob(12:21) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at IND 38 for -9 yards (41-J.Allen).
Q1 · 11:41IND +8% win prob(11:41) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right intended for 16-A.Dulin INTERCEPTED by 2-R.Jenkins [44-T.Walker] at JAX 22. 2-R.Jenkins to JAX 32 for 10 yards (83-K.Granson).
Q1 · 8:05JAX +8% win prob(8:05) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 7-Z.Jones pushed ob at IND 39 for 8 yards (23-K.Moore).
Q2 · 11:45JAX +7% win prob(11:45) 6-M.Haack punts 53 yards to JAX 9, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 21 for 12 yards (41-G.Stuard; 20-N.Cross).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 2:27JAX Touchdown
(2:27) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 13-C.Kirk for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: IND 0 — JAX 7
Q2 · 8:02JAX Touchdown
(8:02) 25-J.Robinson up the middle for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: IND 0 — JAX 14
Q2 · 1:48JAX Field goal
(1:48) 10-R.Patterson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Score after this play: IND 0 — JAX 17
Q3 · 0:22JAX Touchdown
(:22) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 13-C.Kirk for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: IND 0 — JAX 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Colts	Jaguars
Offensive plays	48	66
Total yards	218	332 (edge)
Yards per play	4.5	5.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.44	0.11 (edge)
Success rate	27%	44% (edge)
Dropback rate	73%	45%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.58	0.59 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.05 (edge)	-0.28
Third downs	2/10	6/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	9	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	5	0 (edge)
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Jaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.44.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

25/30, 235 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

17.6 expected points added · +14.3% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Matt RyanQB

16/30, 195 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT

-20.3 expected points added · -5.6% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

James RobinsonRB

23 att, 64 yds, 1 TD

-6.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

9 att, 54 yds, 0 TD

0.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · IND

Ashton DulinWR

5/7 for 79 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 1.5 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Christian KirkWR

6/6 for 78 yds, 2 TD

20% of team targets · 10.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	IND	IND 25	8	35	3:28	Interception
2	JAX	JAX 32	16	68	9:11	Touchdown +7
3	IND	IND 38	5	8	2:21	Punt
4	JAX	JAX 16	4	0	1:30	Punt
5	IND	IND 44	4	-6	1:58	Punt
6	JAX	JAX 21	7	89	3:40	Touchdown +7
7	IND	IND 22	5	9	2:09	Punt
8	JAX	JAX 25	10	41	4:00	Field goal +3
9	IND	IND 25	7	25	1:31	Punt
10	JAX	JAX 17	1	0	0:12	End of half
11	JAX	JAX 25	10	29	4:51	Punt
12	IND	IND 20	6	21	2:10	Punt
13	JAX	JAX 8	13	82	7:42	Touchdown +7
14	IND	IND 23	11	70	4:48	Turnover on downs
15	JAX	JAX 13	4	7	2:08	Punt
16	IND	IND 33	7	59	2:05	Turnover on downs
17	JAX	JAX 9	4	2	1:04	Punt
18	IND	JAX 42	2	0	0:48	Interception
19	JAX	JAX 46	4	5	1:47	Punt
20	IND	IND 13	1	0	0:06	Interception
21	JAX	IND 34	4	9	2:10	Turnover on downs
22	IND	IND 25	2	-3	0:21	End of game

4 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 89 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	16/30	195	0	3	5	-20.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jonathan Taylor	9	54	6.0	0.3
Ashton Dulin	1	3	3.0	-0.2
Nyheim Miller-Hines	1	0	0.0	-0.5
Deon Jackson	2	-3	-1.5	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Ashton Dulin	5	7	79	24%	1.5
Nyheim Miller-Hines	4	5	37	17%	0.3
Dezmon Patmon	2	6	24	21%	-7.6
Mike Strachan	1	3	23	10%	-1.6
Kylen Granson	2	2	14	7%	-0.5
Jonathan Taylor	1	1	9	3%	1.0
Mo Alie-Cox	1	3	9	10%	-1.6
Parris Campbell	0	2	0	7%	-3.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Bobby Okereke	8	2	0
Zaire Franklin	7	2	0
E.J. Speed	5	0	0
Nick Cross	3	2	0
Stephon Gilmore	5	0	1
Kenny Moore	4	1	0
Grover Stewart	3	2	0
Brandon Facyson	4	0	1
Rodney McLeod	3	1	0
Kwity Paye	2	1	0

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trevor Lawrence	25/30	235	2	0	0	17.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Robinson	23	64	2.8	1	-6.0
Travis Etienne	9	20	2.2	0	-3.7
Trevor Lawrence	3	11	3.7	0	0.8
Jamal Agnew	2	1	0.5	0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Christian Kirk	6	6	78	2	20%	10.4
Evan Engram	7	8	46	0	27%	0.3
Travis Etienne	3	3	33	0	10%	1.2
Marvin Jones	3	5	33	0	17%	1.8
Zay Jones	3	4	23	0	13%	3.4
James Robinson	2	2	14	0	7%	0.7
Dan Arnold	1	1	8	0	3%	0.3
Jamal Agnew	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Andre Cisco	4	2	0.0	1	1
Devin Lloyd	2	3	0.0	1	3
Foyesade Oluokun	3	1	0.0	0	1
Josh Hines-Allen	2	1	2.0	0	0
Tyson Campbell	3	0	0.0	0	0
Chad Muma	1	2	0.0	0	0
Roy Robertson-Harris	3	0	1.0	0	0
Shaquill Griffin	2	1	0.0	0	1
Rayshawn Jenkins	2	1	0.0	1	4
Andrew Wingard	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: IND -3
Closing total: 43.5
IND moneyline: -157
JAX moneyline: +142

Colts closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 24 — under by 19.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: IND 7 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches: Frank Reich vs Doug Pederson

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.