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2022 Week 2 · Thu, Sep 15, 2022 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Final
ChargersLos Angeles24
BY 3final margin
ChiefsKansas City27
Los Angeles Chargers 24 at Kansas City Chiefs 27. Final.
Chiefs -4 no coverU 52.5 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 2
Kansas City Chiefs 27, Chargers 24 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 10:43, 1st and 3, on Jaylen Watson — 52.8 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 10:43 · 1st and 3
Jaylen Watson
Chiefs
(10:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 7-G.Everett INTERCEPTED by 35-Ja.Watson at KC 1. 35-Ja.Watson for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Chiefs closed -4, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Kansas City Chiefs 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 10:43, Chiefs +52.8% win probability on one snap.
52.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetChiefsQ2 0:22(:22) 5-T.Townsend punts 74 yards to LAC 9, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-30-D.Bootle.
10.1pts
Justin WatsonChiefsQ3 7:28(7:28) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 84-Ju.Watson for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14.4pts
What separated them
Red zone
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Chiefs at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Chiefs won this one — no giveaways, against Chargers at 1 giveaway.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chiefs at 44% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.13 expected points per dropback, against Chargers at -0.02 expected points per dropback.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Chargers169 of 174 plays carry both curves
(10:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 7-G.Everett INTERCEPTED by 35-Ja.Watson at KC 1. 35-Ja.Watson for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +52.8 for ChiefsExpected points +13.03 for ChiefsThe model had Chiefs 2 points higher than the market did.play 132
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 10:43LAC +53% win prob(10:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 7-G.Everett INTERCEPTED by 35-Ja.Watson at KC 1. 35-Ja.Watson for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 7:28KC +14% win prob(7:28) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 84-Ju.Watson for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:22KC +10% win prob(:22) 5-T.Townsend punts 74 yards to LAC 9, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-30-D.Bootle.
4th · 11:10KC +9% win prob(11:10) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 7-G.Everett to KC 3 for 26 yards (98-T.Wharton; 20-J.Reid).
3rd · 1:35KC +9% win prob(1:35) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce to LAC 3 for 18 yards (3-D.James).
3rd · 3:16KC +9% win prob(3:16) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 17-M.Hardman to LAC 25 for 11 yards (26-A.Samuel).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jaylen Watson's 99-yard touchdown with 10:43 left in the 4th put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:01Dustin Hopkins·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.Harris+33–0
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Chiefs, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.01Chargers: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.08Chiefs: +0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.02Chargers: −0.02 expected points added per play
+0.13Chiefs: +0.13 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.07Chargers: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.03Chiefs: −0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 73 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 52 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 5, Chiefs 4.
NoteChargers outgained Chiefs 402-320 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 29 pts
right on their number · −2.3 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.33× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Chiefs16.0%
right on their number · −0.2 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.03× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
NoteLAC's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 11.0 pts, 6.7 points above their season mean of 4.3 pts and 1.2 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Herbert pass−49% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(10:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 7-G.Everett INTERCEPTED by 35-Ja.Watson at KC 1. 35-Ja.Watson for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 10:43 · Chargers · 1st & goal at KC 3 · gained nothing · -13.03 EP · −49.3% win probability
167 snaps placed · 7 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 174 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps, manual charting on 149. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 75 yards from the KC 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
174 of 174 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
174
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
47%
Yards
720
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48-0.0479%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26+0.0973%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.2172%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.0756%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chargers 42
Chargers3Chiefs0
Field goal12 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Chiefs 13
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 28
The period ended8 plays, from the Chargers 42 to the Chiefs 1
2nd quarter41 plays
Chargers9Chiefs0
Chargers10Chiefs0
Touchdown2 plays
Chargers10Chiefs6
Chargers10Chiefs7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chargers 9
Punt9 plays, from the Chargers 33 to the Chiefs 47
Punt6 plays, from the Chiefs 8 to the Chiefs 29
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 23 to the Chiefs 47
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 13 to the Chiefs 17
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter46 plays
Chargers16Chiefs7
Chargers17Chiefs7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chiefs 15
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
Chargers17Chiefs13
Chargers17Chiefs14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chargers 41
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 33
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 29 to the Chiefs 38
Punt4 plays
The period ended10 plays, from the Chargers 36 to the Chargers 1
4th quarter52 plays
Chargers17Chiefs17
Field goal1 play
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Chargers17Chiefs23
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chargers 40 to the Chiefs 3
Chargers17Chiefs24
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 33
Punt6 plays, from the Chiefs 15 to the Chiefs 35
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 14 to the Chargers 38
Chargers17Chiefs27
Field goal7 plays, from the Chiefs 15 to the Chargers 13
Chargers23Chiefs27
Chargers24Chiefs27
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chargers 27 to the Chiefs 7
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chiefs -4
Closing total
52.5
Chargers moneyline
+167
Chiefs moneyline
-188
Chiefs closed -4, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 52.5; the game landed 51 — under by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 79°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 9 mph out of the south-east; overcast.
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
Chargers 4 days · Chiefs 4 days
Coaches
Brandon Staley vs Andy Reid
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
3rd · 13:46
KC +8% win prob
(13:46) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 30-A.Ekeler pushed ob at KC 41 for 18 yards (27-R.Fenton).
1st · 0:47KC +7% win prob(:47) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 81-M.Williams to KC 1 for 39 yards (27-R.Fenton). Penalty on KC-27-R.Fenton, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. Penalty on KC-27-R.Fenton, Defensive Holding, declined.
