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2022 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 18, 2022 · M&T Bank Stadium

Miami DolphinsWinner

42

Baltimore Ravens

38

BAL -3 upsetO 44 ✓

Miami Dolphins 42–38. Biggest swing: Q4 0:19, BAL +34% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3BAL ↑MIA ↓
Q4 · 0:19MIA 41 — BAL 38MIA ball · 2nd & 7MIA 56%

(:19) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 17-J.Waddle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:19BAL +34% win prob(:19) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 17-J.Waddle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q4 · 5:27BAL +26% win prob(5:27) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 10-T.Hill for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q1 · 15:00BAL +17% win prob7-J.Sanders kicks 68 yards from MIA 35 to BAL -3. 13-D.Duvernay for 103 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q2 · 10:54BAL +17% win prob(10:54) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 7-R.Bateman for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 15:00BAL Touchdown

    7-J.Sanders kicks 68 yards from MIA 35 to BAL -3. 13-D.Duvernay for 103 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 0 — BAL 7
  2. Q2 · 10:58MIA Touchdown

    (10:58) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 17-J.Waddle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 7 — BAL 7
  3. Q2 · 10:54BAL Touchdown

    (10:54) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 7-R.Bateman for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 7 — BAL 14
  4. Q2 · 4:07BAL Touchdown

    (4:07) 77-D.Faalele reported in as eligible. 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 89-M.Andrews for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 7 — BAL 21
  5. Q2 · 0:33BAL Touchdown

    (:33) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 10-D.Robinson for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 7 — BAL 28
  6. Q3 · 7:57MIA Touchdown

    (7:57) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 88-M.Gesicki for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 14 — BAL 28
  7. Q3 · 0:38BAL Touchdown

    (:38) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right guard for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Jackson sets record for 100-yd, rushing games by QB. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 14 — BAL 35
  8. Q4 · 12:18MIA Touchdown

    (12:18) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 85-R.Cracraft for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 21 — BAL 35
  9. Q4 · 7:54MIA Touchdown

    (7:54) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep middle to 10-T.Hill for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 28 — BAL 35
  10. Q4 · 5:27MIA Touchdown

    (5:27) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 10-T.Hill for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 35 — BAL 35
  11. Q4 · 2:23BAL Field goal

    (2:23) 9-J.Tucker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. Penalty on MIA-20-J.Bethel, Defensive Offside, declined.

    Score after this play: MIA 35 — BAL 38
  12. Q4 · 0:19MIA Touchdown

    (:19) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 17-J.Waddle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 42 — BAL 38

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricDolphinsRavens
Offensive plays6954
Total yards547 (edge)473
Yards per play7.98.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.45 (edge)0.27
Success rate54% (edge)44%
Dropback rate74%57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.530.67 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.22 (edge)-0.28
Third downs7/11 (edge)3/10
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)78 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps27 (edge)19
Sacks taken10 (edge)
Turnovers20 (edge)

Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.45 expected points added per play vs 0.27.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

36/50, 469 yds, 6 TD, 2 INT

26.9 expected points added · +3.2% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

21/29, 318 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

17.8 expected points added · +6.9% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

9 att, 119 yds, 1 TD

0.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

Raheem MostertRB

11 att, 51 yds, 0 TD

0.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Tyreek HillWR

11/13 for 190 yds, 2 TD

26% of team targets · 11.1 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

Jaylen WaddleWR

11/19 for 171 yds, 2 TD

38% of team targets · 8.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1BAL—200:13Defensive touchdown +7
2MIAMIA 259464:12Interception
3BALBAL 20187710:52Turnover on downs
4MIAMIA 67943:49Touchdown +7
5BALBAL 253750:10Touchdown +7
6MIAMIA 25923:58Punt
7BALBAL 347612:43Touchdown +7
8MIAMIA 259212:43Interception
9BALBAL 207750:51Touchdown +7
10MIAMIA 25230:29End of half
11MIAMIA 2514857:08Touchdown +7
12BALBAL 25591:32Punt
13MIAMIA 297304:19Punt
14BALBAL 134871:35Touchdown +7
15MIAMIA 259753:14Touchdown +7
16BALBAL 256343:01Turnover on downs
17MIAMIA 416591:24Touchdown +7
18BALBAL 255-21:01Punt
19MIAMIA 364641:27Touchdown +7
20BALBAL 257333:01Field goal +3
21MIAMIA 328682:04Touchdown +7
22BALBAL 255240:14End of game

12 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 94 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tua Tagovailoa36/5046962126.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Raheem Mostert11514.600.6
Chase Edmonds5336.600.3
Tua Tagovailoa111.001.2
Alec Ingold111.001.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tyreek Hill1113190226%11.1
Jaylen Waddle1119171238%8.8
Mike Gesicki444118%6.9
Raheem Mostert332806%1.9
Alec Ingold221504%0.2
Trent Sherfield22904%-0.4
Chase Edmonds13806%-1.2
Durham Smythe11502%0.3
River Cracraft12214%1.3
Cedrick Wilson01002%-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Christian Wilkins520.000
Eric Rowe600.000
Brandon Jones220.000
Xavien Howard220.001
Duke Riley310.000
Jevon Holland210.000
Elandon Roberts120.000
Jerome Baker110.000
Sam Eguavoen110.000
Nik Needham110.000

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Lamar Jackson21/2931830017.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Lamar Jackson911913.210.4
Justice Hill3165.30-0.6
Kenyan Drake681.30-3.2
Patrick Ricard155.000.6
Mike Davis540.80-2.5
Mark Andrews133.001.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Rashod Bateman47108124%7.6
Mark Andrews911104138%5.2
Isaiah Likely4543017%-0.7
Devin Duvernay224207%2.4
Demarcus Robinson121217%3.3
Tylan Wallace12907%0.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Marcus Williams730.022
Marlon Humphrey330.000
Patrick Queen410.000
Chuck Clark500.000
Damarion Williams310.002
Kyle Hamilton130.001
Marcus Peters310.001
Odafe Oweh300.000
Jalyn Armour-Davis210.001
Justin Houston121.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
BAL -3
Closing total
44
MIA moneyline
+148
BAL moneyline
-164

Ravens closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44; the game landed 80 — over by 36.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
—
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
MIA 7 days · BAL 7 days
Coaches
Mike McDaniel vs John Harbaugh