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1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Ravens.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Dolphins163 of 174 plays carry both curves
(:19) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 17-J.Waddle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −33.7 for RavensExpected points −2.61 for RavensThe model had Ravens 8 points higher than the market did.play 164
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:19BAL +34% win prob(:19) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 17-J.Waddle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 5:27BAL +26% win prob(5:27) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 10-T.Hill for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 15:00BAL +17% win prob7-J.Sanders kicks 68 yards from MIA 35 to BAL -3. 13-D.Duvernay for 103 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 10:54BAL +17% win prob(10:54) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 7-R.Bateman for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:23BAL +16% win prob(2:23) 9-J.Tucker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. Penalty on MIA-20-J.Bethel, Defensive Offside, declined.
4th · 0:46BAL +15% win prob(:46) (Shotgun) 2-C.Edmonds up the middle to BAL 7 for 28 yards (32-M.Williams).
1st · 14:47
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jaylen Waddle's 7-yard touchdown catch with 0:19 left in the 4th put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st15:00Devin Duvernay·103-yd return TD103-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kick+70–7
2nd10:58Jaylen Waddle·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua Tagovailoa+77–7
4th12:18River Cracraft·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua Tagovailoa+721–35
4th7:54Tyreek Hill·48-yd TD catch48-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua Tagovailoa+728–35
4th5:27Tyreek Hill·60-yd TD catch60-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua Tagovailoa+735–35
4th2:23Justin Tucker·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap N.Moore+335–38
4th0:19Jaylen Waddle·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua TagovailoaLead never changed again+742–38
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Dolphinscategory by categoryRavens
Dolphins5–4Ravens
547Total yards473
7.9Yards per play8.8
54%Success rate44%
64%Third-down rate30%
4Red-zone touchdowns2
7Explosive plays8
27First downs19
1Sacks taken0
2Turnovers0
The read
Dolphins ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Ravens, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.67 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.45Dolphins: +0.45 expected points added per play
+0.27Ravens: +0.27 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.53Dolphins: +0.53 expected points added per play
+0.67Ravens: +0.67 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.22Dolphins: +0.22 expected points added per play
−0.28Ravens: −0.28 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 69 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Ravens’s 54 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 6, Ravens 6.
NoteDolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.45 expected points added per play vs 0.27.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
MIA's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 3.9 points clear of the next team along.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points.
BAL's sack or hit rate turned over: 16.1% in week 1 against 3.9% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
51 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points.
BAL's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 1 against 75.0% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 26.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 25 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −13.6 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−1.90× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Ravens3.9%
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.7 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−1.82× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
NoteMIA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 13.6 points below their season mean of 13.6% and 1.9 times their own 7.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Tagovailoa pass+41% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:19) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 17-J.Waddle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:19 · Dolphins · 2nd & goal at BAL 7 · gained 7 · +2.61 EP · +41.3% win probability
161 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 174 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps, manual charting on 136. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 94 yards from the MIA 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
174 of 174 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
174
EPA per play
+0.30
Success rate
47%
Yards
1020
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.7788%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR28+0.2068%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR15+0.8440%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR12+0.1442%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.8080%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR8+0.4188%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.0243%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR5-1.8320%
Ravens2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Dolphins2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Ravens0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
Dolphins0Ravens6
Dolphins0Ravens7
Touchdown2 plays
Intercepted10 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Ravens 29
The period ended20 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Dolphins 1
2nd quarter50 plays
Turnover on downs2 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
How the play was built
A screen, a run-pass option, play action, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Dolphins6Ravens7
Dolphins7Ravens7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Dolphins 6 to the Ravens 6
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a run-pass option, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Dolphins7Ravens13
Dolphins7Ravens14
Touchdown3 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 35
Dolphins7Ravens20
Dolphins7Ravens21
Touchdown7 plays, from the Ravens 34 to the Dolphins 1
Intercepted9 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 46
Dolphins7Ravens27
Dolphins7Ravens28
Touchdown9 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Dolphins 12
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Dolphins13Ravens28
Dolphins14Ravens28
Touchdown15 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Ravens 11
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 34
Punt8 plays, from the Dolphins 29 to the Ravens 49
Dolphins14Ravens34
Dolphins14Ravens35
Touchdown4 plays, from the Ravens 13 to the Ravens 22
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter56 plays
Dolphins20Ravens35
Dolphins21Ravens35
Touchdown8 plays, from the Ravens 42 to the Ravens 2
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Dolphins 40
Dolphins27Ravens35
Dolphins28Ravens35
Touchdown6 plays, from the Dolphins 41 to the Ravens 48
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 30
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Dolphins34Ravens35
Dolphins35Ravens35
Touchdown4 plays, from the Dolphins 36 to the Dolphins 40
Dolphins35Ravens38
Field goal8 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Dolphins 33
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.7 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defenders
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, three linebackers and seven backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
Dolphins41Ravens38
Dolphins42Ravens38
Touchdown10 plays, from the Dolphins 32 to the Ravens 7
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, three linebackers and seven backsRoute runGoCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw6.7 seconds
The period ended8 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 49
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Ravens -3
Closing total
44
Dolphins moneyline
+148
Ravens moneyline
-164
Ravens closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44; the game landed 80 — over by 36.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 80°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 5 mph out of the south; clear.
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
Dolphins 7 days · Ravens 7 days
Coaches
Mike McDaniel vs John Harbaugh
BAL +11% win prob
(14:47) 31-R.Mostert right end pushed ob at MIA 32 for 7 yards (24-M.Peters; 6-P.Queen).
1st · 10:42MIA +10% win prob(10:42) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left intended for 10-T.Hill INTERCEPTED by 32-M.Williams at BAL 20. 32-M.Williams to BAL 20 for no gain (10-T.Hill).
