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Game Center
2022 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 18, 2022 · M&T Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 2
It turned at Q4 0:19, 2nd and 7, on Jaylen Waddle — 33.7 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Miami Dolphins 42–38. Biggest swing: Q4 0:19, Dolphins +33.7% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:19 · 2nd and 7
Jaylen Waddle
Dolphins
(:19) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 17-J.Waddle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
33.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Dolphins won this one — 7 of 11 on third down, against Ravens at 3 of 10 on third down.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Dolphins won this one — +0.22 expected points per carry, against Ravens at -0.28 expected points per carry.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Dolphins at 2 giveaways.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Dolphins won this one — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Ravens at 44% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Ravens.
(:19) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 17-J.Waddle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jaylen Waddle's 7-yard touchdown catch with 0:19 left in the 4th put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Jaylen Waddle7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua TagovailoaLead never changed again+742–3812 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Dolphinscategory by categoryRavens
Dolphins ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Ravens, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.67 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 69 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Ravens’s 54 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 6, Ravens 6.
Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.45 expected points added per play vs 0.27.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
MIA's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 3.9 points clear of the next team along.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points. · −1.9σ from their own normal
BAL's sack or hit rate turned over: 16.1% in week 1 against 3.9% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
51 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points. · −1.8σ from their own normal
BAL's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 1 against 75.0% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 26.7 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 25 pts
Over Expected room →Dolphins6.2 ptsright on their number · +4.1 vs their 2.1 pts, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+0.46× that swing) · 69 snaps
Ravens0.4 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.5 vs their -5.0 pts, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.62× that swing) · 54 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 18% to 83%
Tendencies room →Dolphins71.4%leaned — passed early · +13.8 vs their 57.7%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (+1.53× that swing) · 56 early downs
Ravens63.4%inside their normal wobble · +12.6 vs their 50.8%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (+0.98× that swing) · 41 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -11% to 67%
Tendencies room →Dolphins41.2%inside their normal wobble · +9.2 vs their 32.0%, and they swing ±13.7 week to week (+0.67× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Ravens29.0%right on their number · +4.3 vs their 24.7%, and they swing ±13.6 week to week (+0.32× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34% to 103%
Fourth Down room →Dolphins—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 31.9%.
Ravens75.0%leaned — went for it · +40.5 vs their 34.5%, and they swing ±26.7 week to week (+1.51× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 69%
Tendencies room →Dolphins45.2%inside their normal wobble · +13.5 vs their 31.7%, and they swing ±14.5 week to week (+0.93× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Ravens17.6%inside their normal wobble · −8.9 vs their 26.5%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (−0.85× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 32%
Tendencies room →Dolphins0.0%leaned — stayed blocked · −13.6 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−1.90× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Ravens3.9%leaned — stayed blocked · −10.7 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−1.82× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
MIA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 13.6 points below their season mean of 13.6% and 1.9 times their own 7.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIA
36/50, 469 yds, 6 TD, 2 INT
26.9 expected points added · +3.2% completion over expected
Passing · BAL
21/29, 318 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
17.8 expected points added · +6.9% completion over expected
Receiving · MIA
11/19 for 171 yds, 2 TD
38% of team targets · 8.8 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Tyreek Hill banked 21.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar JacksonQB · Starter QB | 42.6 | +17.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/29, 318 yd, 3 TD · 9 car, 119 yd, 1 TD |
| Tyreek HillWR · Alpha Receiver | 42.0 | +21.1 | 76% | 78% | 26% | 38% | 11/13, 190 yd, 2 TD |
| Jaylen WaddleWR · Alpha Receiver | 40.1 | +6.2 | 80% | 82% | 38% | 50% | 11/19, 171 yd, 2 TD |
| Tua TagovailoaQB · Starter QB | 38.9 | +14.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 36/50, 469 yd, 6 TD, 2 INT · 1 car, 1 yd |
| Mark AndrewsTE · Alpha Receiver | 25.7 | +1.5 | 83% | 84% | 38% | 40% | 1 car, 3 yd · 9/11, 104 yd, 1 TD |
| Rashod BatemanWR · Featured Receiver | 20.8 | +9.7 | 61% | 71% | 24% | 27% | 4/7, 108 yd, 1 TD |
| Mike GesickiTE · Rotational Receiver | 14.1 | +6.5 | 62% | 65% | 8% | 8% | 4/4, 41 yd, 1 TD |
| Devin DuvernayWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.2 | +7.8 | 54% | 55% | 7% | 11% | 2/2, 42 yd |
| Raheem MostertRB · Bell Cow Back | 10.9 | +1.7 | 55% | 53% | 6% | 0% | 11 car, 51 yd · 3/3, 28 yd |
| Isaiah LikelyTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.3 | +0.4 | 36% | 42% | 17% | 12% | 4/5, 43 yd |
| Demarcus RobinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.2 | +1.8 | 39% | 52% | 7% | 8% | 1/2, 12 yd, 1 TD |
| River CracraftWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.2 | 0.0 | 23% | 20% | 4% | 1% | 1/2, 2 yd, 1 TD |
| Chase EdmondsRB | 5.1 | −1.6 | 51% | 53% | 6% | 0% | 5 car, 33 yd · 1/3, 8 yd |
| Alec IngoldRB | 3.6 | +0.5 | 37% | 33% | 4% | 1% | 1 car, 1 yd · 2/2, 15 yd |
| Trent SherfieldWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | −0.2 | 35% | 35% | 4% | 0% | 2/2, 9 yd |
| Tylan WallaceWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −1.3 | 15% | 23% | 7% | 2% | 1/2, 9 yd |
| Justice HillRB | 1.6 | −0.2 | 36% | 42% | 0% | — | 3 car, 16 yd |
| Durham SmytheTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −0.9 | 49% | 39% | 2% | 1% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Kenyan DrakeRB | 0.8 | −2.7 | 27% | 26% | 0% | — | 6 car, 8 yd |
| Patrick RicardRB | 0.5 | +0.1 | 63% | 48% | 0% | — | 1 car, 5 yd |
| Mike DavisRB | 0.4 | −7.4 | 31% | 23% | 0% | — | 5 car, 4 yd |
| Raleigh WebbWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Cedrick WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 31% | 39% | 2% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:19) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 17-J.Waddle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:19 · Dolphins · 2nd & goal at BAL 7 · gained 7 · +2.61 EP · +41.3% win probability
161 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 174 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps, manual charting on 136. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
12 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 94 yards from the MIA 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Dolphins0
Ravens6Dolphins0Ravens7How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
How the play was built
A screen, a run-pass option, play action, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
Dolphins6Ravens7Dolphins7Ravens7How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a run-pass option, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Dolphins7Ravens13Dolphins7Ravens14Dolphins7Ravens20Dolphins7Ravens21Dolphins7Ravens27Dolphins7Ravens28Dolphins13Ravens28Dolphins14Ravens28Dolphins14Ravens34Dolphins14Ravens35Dolphins20Ravens35Dolphins21Ravens35Dolphins27Ravens35Dolphins28Ravens35How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Dolphins34Ravens35Dolphins35Ravens35Dolphins35Ravens38How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the receiver created it himself.
Dolphins41Ravens38Dolphins42Ravens38How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Dolphins at Ravens, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 36/50 | 469 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +26.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 11 | 51 | 4.6 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Chase Edmonds | 5 | 33 | 6.6 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Tua Tagovailoa |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 11 | 13 | 190 | 2 | 26% | +11.1 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 11 | 19 | 171 | 2 | 38% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Wilkins | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Rowe | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Jones |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 21/29 | 318 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +17.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_02_MIA_BAL
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Ravens closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44; the game landed 80 — over by 36.0.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| +1.2 |
| Alec Ingold | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | +1.9 |
| +8.8 |
| Mike Gesicki | 4 | 4 | 41 | 1 | 8% | +6.9 |
| Raheem Mostert | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 6% | +1.9 |
| Alec Ingold | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 4% | +0.2 |
| Trent Sherfield | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 4% | −0.4 |
| Chase Edmonds | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 6% | −1.2 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2% | +0.3 |
| River Cracraft | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4% | +1.3 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.4 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Xavien Howard | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Duke Riley | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jevon Holland | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elandon Roberts | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerome Baker | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Eguavoen | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nik Needham | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 9 | 119 | 13.2 | 1 | +0.4 |
| Justice Hill | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Kenyan Drake | 6 | 8 | 1.3 | 0 | −3.2 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Mike Davis | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 | −2.5 |
| Mark Andrews | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | +1.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashod Bateman | 4 | 7 | 108 | 1 | 24% | +7.6 |
| Mark Andrews | 9 | 11 | 104 | 1 | 38% | +5.2 |
| Isaiah Likely | 4 | 5 | 43 | 0 | 17% | −0.7 |
| Devin Duvernay | 2 | 2 | 42 | 0 | 7% | +2.4 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 7% | +3.3 |
| Tylan Wallace | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 7% | +0.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Williams | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Marlon Humphrey | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Queen | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chuck Clark | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damarion Williams | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Kyle Hamilton | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Marcus Peters | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Odafe Oweh | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalyn Armour-Davis | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Justin Houston | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
