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(15:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 16-Q.Watkins for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +12.4 for EaglesExpected points +4.87 for EaglesModel and market agree here.play 39
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 15:00PHI +12% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 16-Q.Watkins for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 11:47PHI +11% win prob(11:47) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 11-A.Brown to MIN 31 for 19 yards (22-H.Smith, 24-C.Bynum).
2nd · 2:09PHI +6% win prob(2:09) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts right end for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:32PHI +6% win prob(14:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert pushed ob at PHI 41 for 18 yards (54-E.Kendricks).
3rd · 2:28MIN +5% win prob(2:28) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left intended for 19-A.Thielen INTERCEPTED by 29-A.Maddox at PHI 13. 29-A.Maddox to PHI 15 for 2 yards (84-I.Smith).
1st · 9:44PHI +5% win prob(9:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert to MIN 3 for 13 yards (22-H.Smith).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jalen Hurts's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 9:14 left in the 1st put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:14Jalen Hurts·3-yd TD run3-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
2nd0:03Jake Elliott·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder A.Siposs · snap R.Lovato+37–24
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Vikingscategory by categoryEagles
Vikings1–7Eagles
264Total yards486
4.5Yards per play7.1
47%Success rate51%
33%Third-down rate54%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
2Explosive plays8
19First downs23
2Sacks taken3
3Turnovers1
The read
Eagles ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.21Vikings: −0.21 expected points added per play
+0.25Eagles: +0.25 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.25Vikings: −0.25 expected points added per play
+0.32Eagles: +0.32 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.00Vikings: +0.00 expected points added per play
+0.15Eagles: +0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 59 snaps at a 85% dropback rate against Eagles’s 68 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 4, Eagles 5.
NoteEagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs -0.21.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
MIN's early-down pass rate, 83.0%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 10.5 points clear of the next team along.
2.4 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 3.7-swing turn from week 1.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.7 points.
MIN's play-action rate turned over: 42.4% in week 1 against 10.0% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
50 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 20 pts
right on their number · +1.3 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (+0.24× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Eagles14.0%
inside their normal wobble · −3.7 vs their 17.7%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.60× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
NoteMIN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 83.0%, 23.0 points above their season mean of 59.9% and 2.4 times their own 9.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
67Ed IngramG · Every snap100%61 snaps
75Brian O'NeillT · Every snap100%61 snaps
71Christian DarrisawT · Every snap100%61 snaps
72Ezra ClevelandG · Every snap100%61 snaps
8Kirk CousinsQB · Every snap100%61 snaps
56Garrett BradburyC · Every snap100%61 snaps
18Justin JeffersonWR · Full-time98%60 snaps
19Adam ThielenWR · Full-time97%59 snaps
17K.J. OsbornWR · Heavy rotation77%47 snaps
4Dalvin CookRB · Heavy rotation69%42 snaps
84Irv SmithTE · Heavy rotation56%34 snaps
86Johnny MundtTE · Rotational46%28 snaps
2Alexander MattisonRB · Rotational31%19 snaps
5Jalen ReagorWR · Situational16%10 snaps
30C.J. HamFB · Situational5%3 snaps
82Ben EllefsonTE · Situational5%3 snaps
Inactive · 6
Andrew BoothDBLuiji VilainDEEsezi OtomewoDEChris ReedGTy ChandlerRBVederian LoweT
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Hurts pass+11% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:47) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 11-A.Brown to MIN 31 for 19 yards (22-H.Smith, 24-C.Bynum).
Q1 11:47 · Eagles · 3rd & 13 at 50 · gained 19 · +3.00 EP · +11.0% win probability
158 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps, manual charting on 148. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 85 yards from the PHI 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
-0.06
Success rate
44%
Yards
750
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR60+0.1653%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR53-0.2785%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+1.0429%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.2 seconds
Vikings0Eagles6
Vikings0Eagles7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Eagles 18 to the Vikings 3
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 30
Punt6 plays, from the Eagles 23 to the Eagles 31
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 39 to the Vikings 44
The period ended8 plays, from the Eagles 18 to the Eagles 45
2nd quarter52 plays
Vikings0Eagles13
Vikings0Eagles14
Touchdown2 plays
Vikings6Eagles14
Vikings7Eagles14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Eagles 2
Punt8 plays, from the Eagles 16 to the Eagles 31
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 26 to the Vikings 34
Vikings7Eagles20
Vikings7Eagles21
Touchdown8 plays, from the Eagles 15 to the Vikings 26
Punt6 plays, from the Vikings 22 to the Vikings 37
Vikings7Eagles24
Field goal12 plays, from the Eagles 5 to the Vikings 20
3rd quarter32 plays
Intercepted11 plays, from the Vikings 21 to the Eagles 19
No good13 plays, from the Eagles 19 to the Vikings 19
Intercepted3 plays, from the Eagles 30 to the Eagles 27
The period ended5 plays, from the Eagles 15 to the Eagles 26
4th quarter47 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Eagles 28 to the Eagles 47
Punt13 plays, from the Vikings 10 to the Vikings 49
Intercepted2 plays
Intercepted3 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Eagles 49
The period ended13 plays, from the Vikings 11 to the Eagles 10
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Eagles -2.5
Closing total
49.5
Vikings moneyline
+127
Eagles moneyline
-141
Eagles closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 17.
Total closed 49.5; the game landed 31 — under by 18.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 73°F at kickoff; still at 5 mph out of the north-west; partly cloudy.
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
Vikings 8 days · Eagles 8 days
Coaches
Kevin O'Connell vs Nick Sirianni
2nd · 3:53
PHI +5% win prob
(3:53) (Shotgun) 35-B.Scott up the middle to MIN 34 for 16 yards (22-H.Smith).
2nd · 8:07PHI +4% win prob(8:07) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles left end ran ob at PHI 22 for 8 yards (58-J.Hicks). PENALTY on MIN-3-C.Dantzler, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 22.
