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polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:05 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 18, 2022 · Acrisure Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 2
It turned at Q2 0:30, 3rd and 3, on Nelson Agholor — 19.5 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New England Patriots 17–14 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 0:30, Patriots +19.5% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:30 · 3rd and 3
Nelson Agholor
Patriots
(:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right to 15-N.Agholor for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
19.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Every snap
Patriots won this one — +0.14 expected points per snap, against Steelers at -0.06 expected points per snap.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Steelers owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Patriots at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Steelersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Patriots won this one — 1 giveaway, against Steelers at 2 giveaways.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.14 expected points per dropback, against Steelers at -0.12 expected points per dropback.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
(:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right to 15-N.Agholor for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Nelson Agholor's 44-yard touchdown catch with 0:30 left in the 2nd put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Nelson Agholor44-yd TD catch44-yard touchdown catchfrom Mac JonesLead never changed again+710–3
Pat Freiermuth8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Mitchell Trubisky · two-point good+817–146 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Patriotscategory by categorySteelers
Patriots ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 63 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Steelers’s 59 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 4, Steelers 2.
Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Patriots0.4 ptsright on their number · +1.7 vs their -1.3 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+0.24× that swing) · 63 snaps
Steelers-1.0 ptsright on their number · +2.7 vs their -3.7 pts, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.36× that swing) · 58 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 83%
Tendencies room →Patriots55.3%right on their number · −0.9 vs their 56.3%, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (−0.10× that swing) · 47 early downs
Steelers58.1%inside their normal wobble · +6.3 vs their 51.8%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (+0.52× that swing) · 43 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 45%
Tendencies room →Patriots10.5%inside their normal wobble · −7.5 vs their 18.0%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (−0.71× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Steelers18.9%inside their normal wobble · +5.3 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.71× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -47% to 91%
Fourth Down room →Patriots0.0%inside their normal wobble · −21.7 vs their 21.7%, and they swing ±27.0 week to week (−0.80× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Steelers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 18.3%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 65%
Tendencies room →Patriots21.6%right on their number · −4.6 vs their 26.3%, and they swing ±12.6 week to week (−0.37× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Steelers31.6%right on their number · +3.3 vs their 28.2%, and they swing ±14.3 week to week (+0.23× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 31%
Tendencies room →Patriots7.9%inside their normal wobble · −6.3 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.94× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Steelers7.9%inside their normal wobble · −4.8 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−0.93× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Nothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was NE's sack or hit rate, 7.9% against a season mean of 14.2% — and NE swings 6.7 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 4 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 4
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · NE
21/35, 252 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
5.2 expected points added · -5.1% completion over expected
Passing · PIT
21/33, 168 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-4.8 expected points added · -4.9% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Nelson Agholor banked 13.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nelson AgholorWR · Rotational Receiver | 23.0 | +13.7 | 50% | 76% | 18% | 22% | 6/6, 110 yd, 1 TD |
| Jakobi MeyersWR · Alpha Receiver | 18.5 | −1.0 | 82% | 84% | 38% | 36% | 9/13, 95 yd |
| Damien HarrisRB · Committee Back | 16.7 | +3.6 | 40% | 29% | 6% | 1% | 15 car, 71 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 16 yd |
| Najee HarrisRB · Bell Cow Back | 13.9 | −1.6 | 71% | 66% | 19% | 5% | 15 car, 49 yd · 5/6, 40 yd |
| Diontae JohnsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 13.7 | −2.3 | 86% | 100% | 31% | 50% | 6/10, 57 yd |
| Mac JonesQB · Starter QB | 12.7 | −1.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/35, 252 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 7 car, 6 yd |
| Pat FreiermuthTE · Featured Receiver | 12.2 | +0.2 | 81% | 79% | 22% | 15% | 4/7, 22 yd, 1 TD |
| Mitchell TrubiskyQB · Starter QB | 11.4 | −0.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/33, 168 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, 7 yd |
| Chase ClaypoolWR · Featured Receiver | 6.6 | −1.7 | 92% | 100% | 19% | 13% | 4/6, 26 yd |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB | 6.1 | −1.3 | 62% | 71% | 6% | 1% | 9 car, 47 yd · 1/2, 4 yd |
| Kendrick BourneWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | −1.6 | 35% | 55% | 9% | 11% | 2/3, 16 yd |
| George PickensWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | −0.2 | 85% | 95% | 6% | 17% | 1/2, 23 yd |
| Jaylen WarrenRB | 2.5 | −1.0 | 29% | 34% | 3% | 0% | 4 car, 15 yd · 1/1, 0 yd |
| Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | −1.1 | 38% | 13% | 6% | 5% | 1/2, 11 yd |
| Gunner OlszewskiWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +1.2 | 14% | — | 0% | — | 1 car, 18 yd |
| Derek WattRB | 0.2 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Pierre StrongRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jonnu SmithTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.7 | 57% | 42% | 9% | 6% | 0/3, 0 yd |
| Hunter HenryTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 50% | 58% | 3% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| DeVante ParkerWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.5 | 76% | 71% | 6% | 17% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Miles BoykinWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Connor HeywardRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right to 15-N.Agholor for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 0:30 · Patriots · 3rd & 3 at PIT 44 · gained 44 · +5.28 EP · +22.3% win probability
154 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 168 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps, manual charting on 143. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 75 yards from the PIT 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Patriots3
Steelers0How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
Patriots3Steelers3How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
Patriots9Steelers3Patriots10Steelers3Patriots10Steelers6Patriots16Steelers6Patriots17Steelers6Patriots17Steelers12Patriots17Steelers14Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Patriots at Steelers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 21/35 | 252 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +5.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Harris | 15 | 71 | 4.7 | 1 | +2.3 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 9 | 47 | 5.2 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Mac Jones |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nelson Agholor | 6 | 6 | 110 | 1 | 18% | +8.5 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 9 | 13 | 95 | 0 | 38% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Bryant | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jalen Mills | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Ja'Whaun Bentley |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 21/33 | 168 | 1 | 1 | 3 | −4.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_02_NE_PIT
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Patriots closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Total closed 40; the game landed 31 — under by 9.0.
Conditions and crew
| 7 |
| 6 |
| 0.9 |
| 0 |
| −2.9 |
| +5.0 |
| Damien Harris | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 6% | +1.3 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 9% | +0.7 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 6% | +0.3 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6% | −0.6 |
| Hunter Henry | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Jonnu Smith | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9% | −2.9 |
| DeVante Parker | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −4.6 |
| 1 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jahlani Tavai | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lawrence Guy | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Judon | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jabrill Peppers | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deatrich Wise | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mack Wilson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Devin McCourty | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Najee Harris | 15 | 49 | 3.3 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Gunner Olszewski | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 | +1.5 |
| Jaylen Warren | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Derek Watt | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diontae Johnson | 6 | 10 | 57 | 0 | 31% | +1.5 |
| Najee Harris | 5 | 6 | 40 | 0 | 19% | −0.3 |
| Chase Claypool | 4 | 6 | 26 | 0 | 19% | +0.6 |
| George Pickens | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 6% | +0.1 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 4 | 7 | 22 | 1 | 22% | −1.3 |
| Jaylen Warren | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Jack | 5 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Spillane | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Cameron Heyward | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Terrell Edmunds | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Devin Bush | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Reed | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Highsmith | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Sutton | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Miles Boykin | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
