2022 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 18, 2022 · Acrisure Stadium

New England PatriotsWinner

Pittsburgh Steelers

NE -3 pushU 40 ✓Patriots closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

New England Patriots 17–14 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 0:30, PIT +20% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:30NE 9 — PIT 3NE ball · 3rd & 3NE 65%

(:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right to 15-N.Agholor for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:30PIT +20% win prob(:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right to 15-N.Agholor for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 4:06PIT +14% win prob(4:06) 7-J.Bailey punts 37 yards to PIT 20, Center-49-J.Cardona. 89-G.Olszewski MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NE-41-B.Schooler at PIT 20. PENALTY on PIT-83-Co.Heyward, Unnecessary Roughness, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 20.
Q2 · 12:19PIT +9% win prob(12:19) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep left to 18-D.Johnson pushed ob at NE 30 for 17 yards (2-J.Mills).
Q1 · 1:47NE +9% win prob(1:47) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep middle intended for 18-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 2-J.Mills (30-M.Wilson) at NE 26. 2-J.Mills to NE 39 for 13 yards (14-G.Pickens).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 6:46NE Field goal
(6:46) 6-N.Folk 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: NE 3 — PIT 0
Q2 · 8:38PIT Field goal
(8:38) 9-C.Boswell 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
Score after this play: NE 3 — PIT 3
Q2 · 0:30NE Touchdown
(:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right to 15-N.Agholor for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 10 — PIT 3
Q3 · 5:47PIT Field goal
(5:47) 9-C.Boswell 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
Score after this play: NE 10 — PIT 6
Q3 · 2:50NE Touchdown
(2:50) 37-D.Harris up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 17 — PIT 6
Q4 · 15:00PIT Touchdown
(15:00) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 88-P.Freiermuth for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: NE 17 — PIT 14

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Steelers
Offensive plays	63	59
Total yards	385 (edge)	245
Yards per play	6.1 (edge)	4.2
Expected points added / play	0.14 (edge)	-0.06
Success rate	49% (edge)	44%
Dropback rate	60%	64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.14 (edge)	-0.12
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.14 (edge)	0.04
Third downs	9/16 (edge)	8/15
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	18 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	3
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.06.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Mac JonesQB

21/35, 252 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

5.2 expected points added · -5.1% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Mitchell TrubiskyQB

21/33, 168 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-4.8 expected points added · -4.9% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Damien HarrisRB

15 att, 71 yds, 1 TD

2.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PIT

Najee HarrisRB

15 att, 49 yds, 0 TD

-0.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NE

Nelson AgholorWR

6/6 for 110 yds, 1 TD

18% of team targets · 8.5 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Jakobi MeyersWR

9/13 for 95 yds, 0 TD

38% of team targets · 5.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PIT	PIT 25	5	6	1:33	Punt
2	NE	NE 20	13	76	6:45	Field goal +3
3	PIT	PIT 25	10	33	5:04	Defensive touchdown
4	NE	NE 39	3	5	0:56	Interception
5	PIT	PIT 34	16	53	7:07	Field goal +3
6	NE	NE 34	5	28	2:10	Punt
7	PIT	PIT 20	7	20	3:17	Punt
8	NE	NE 26	9	74	2:46	Touchdown +7
9	PIT	PIT 25	5	19	0:22	End of half
10	NE	NE 25	12	46	5:43	Missed field goal
11	PIT	PIT 42	7	25	3:33	Field goal +3
12	NE	NE 17	6	31	1:46	Punt
13	NE	PIT 10	4	10	1:11	Touchdown +7
14	PIT	PIT 25	11	77	2:49	Touchdown +8
15	NE	NE 28	9	42	4:09	Punt
16	PIT	PIT 11	4	4	1:09	Punt
17	NE	50	4	8	1:37	Punt
18	PIT	PIT 20	4	8	1:30	Punt
19	NE	NE 30	13	65	6:33	End of game

6 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 77 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mac Jones	21/35	252	1	1	0	5.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Damien Harris	15	71	4.7	1	2.3
Rhamondre Stevenson	9	47	5.2	0	0.8
Mac Jones	7	6	0.9	0	-2.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Nelson Agholor	6	6	110	1	18%	8.5
Jakobi Meyers	9	13	95	0	38%	5.0
Damien Harris	2	2	16	0	6%	1.3
Kendrick Bourne	2	3	16	0	9%	0.7
Lil'Jordan Humphrey	1	2	11	0	6%	0.3
Rhamondre Stevenson	1	2	4	0	6%	-0.6
Hunter Henry	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8
Jonnu Smith	0	3	0	0	9%	-2.9
DeVante Parker	0	2	0	0	6%	-4.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Myles Bryant	5	4	0.0	0	1
Jalen Mills	3	2	0.0	1	1
Ja'Whaun Bentley	1	4	0.0	0	0
Jahlani Tavai	1	3	1.0	0	0
Lawrence Guy	2	2	0.0	0	0
Matt Judon	1	3	1.0	0	1
Jabrill Peppers	2	1	0.0	0	0
Deatrich Wise	2	1	0.0	0	0
Mack Wilson	1	2	0.0	0	1
Devin McCourty	1	2	0.0	0	1

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mitchell Trubisky	21/33	168	1	1	3	-4.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Najee Harris	15	49	3.3	-0.9
Gunner Olszewski	1	18	18.0	1.5
Jaylen Warren	4	15	3.8	-0.2
Mitchell Trubisky	1	7	7.0	0.2
Derek Watt	1	2	2.0	0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Diontae Johnson	6	10	57	0	31%	1.5
Najee Harris	5	6	40	0	19%	-0.3
Chase Claypool	4	6	26	0	19%	0.6
George Pickens	1	2	23	0	6%	0.1
Pat Freiermuth	4	7	22	1	22%	-1.3
Jaylen Warren	1	1	0	0	3%	-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Myles Jack	5	7	0	0
Robert Spillane	3	3	0	0
Minkah Fitzpatrick	2	4	1	1
Cameron Heyward	3	2	0	1
Terrell Edmunds	3	1	0	1
Devin Bush	2	2	0	0
Malik Reed	1	2	0	0
Alex Highsmith	2	1	0	0
Cameron Sutton	2	0	0	1
Miles Boykin	2	0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -3
Closing total: 40
NE moneyline: -150
PIT moneyline: +135

Patriots closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Total closed 40; the game landed 31 — under by 9.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Acrisure Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: NE 7 days · PIT 7 days
Coaches: Bill Belichick vs Mike Tomlin