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New England Patriots 17 at Pittsburgh Steelers 14. Final.
Patriots -3 pushU 40 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 2
New England Patriots 17, Steelers 14 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q2 0:30, 3rd and 3, on Nelson Agholor — 19.5 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:30 · 3rd and 3
Nelson Agholor
Patriots
(:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right to 15-N.Agholor for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Patriots closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
New England Patriots 17–14 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 0:30, Patriots +19.5% win probability on one snap.
19.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Diontae JohnsonSteelersQ2 12:19(12:19) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep left to 18-D.Johnson pushed ob at NE 30 for 17 yards (2-J.Mills).
9.0pts
Unnamed on the sheetPatriotsQ3 4:06(4:06) 7-J.Bailey punts 37 yards to PIT 20, Center-49-J.Cardona. 89-G.Olszewski MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NE-41-B.Schooler at PIT 20. PENALTY on PIT-83-Co.Heyward, Unnecessary Roughness, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 20.
13.6pts
What separated them
Every snap
Patriots won this one — +0.14 expected points per snap, against Steelers at -0.06 expected points per snap.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Steelers owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Patriots at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Steelersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Patriots won this one — 1 giveaway, against Steelers at 2 giveaways.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.14 expected points per dropback, against Steelers at -0.12 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Patriots156 of 168 plays carry both curves
(:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right to 15-N.Agholor for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −19.5 for SteelersExpected points −5.28 for SteelersThe model had Steelers 13 points higher than the market did.play 75
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:30PIT +20% win prob(:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right to 15-N.Agholor for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 4:06PIT +14% win prob(4:06) 7-J.Bailey punts 37 yards to PIT 20, Center-49-J.Cardona. 89-G.Olszewski MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NE-41-B.Schooler at PIT 20. PENALTY on PIT-83-Co.Heyward, Unnecessary Roughness, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 20.
2nd · 12:19PIT +9% win prob(12:19) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep left to 18-D.Johnson pushed ob at NE 30 for 17 yards (2-J.Mills).
1st · 1:47NE +9% win prob(1:47) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep middle intended for 18-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 2-J.Mills (30-M.Wilson) at NE 26. 2-J.Mills to NE 39 for 13 yards (14-G.Pickens).
2nd · 13:40PIT +8% win prob(13:40) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left to 18-D.Johnson pushed ob at NE 40 for 12 yards (31-Jo.Jones).
2nd · 7:51NE +7% win prob(7:51) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on NE-10-M.Jones, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 38. Pressure by 41-Spillane.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Nelson Agholor's 44-yard touchdown catch with 0:30 left in the 2nd put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:46Nick Folk·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.Cardona+33–0
2nd8:38Chris Boswell·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder P.Harvin · snap C.Kuntz+33–3
2nd0:30Nelson Agholor·44-yd TD catch44-yard touchdown catchfrom Mac Jonesfrom Mac JonesLead never changed again+710–3
3rd5:47Chris Boswell·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder P.Harvin · snap C.Kuntz+310–6
Patriots ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.14Patriots: +0.14 expected points added per play
−0.06Steelers: −0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.14Patriots: +0.14 expected points added per play
−0.12Steelers: −0.12 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.14Patriots: +0.14 expected points added per play
+0.04Steelers: +0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 63 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Steelers’s 59 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 4, Steelers 2.
NotePatriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.3 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.94× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Steelers7.9%
inside their normal wobble · −4.8 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−0.93× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was NE's sack or hit rate, 7.9% against a season mean of 14.2% — and NE swings 6.7 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 4 never used
76Isaiah WynnT · Every snap100%68 snaps
69Cole StrangeG · Every snap100%68 snaps
71Michael OnwenuG · Every snap100%68 snaps
77Trenton BrownT · Every snap100%68 snaps
10Mac JonesQB · Every snap100%68 snaps
60David AndrewsC · Every snap100%68 snaps
16Jakobi MeyersWR · Full-time82%56 snaps
1DeVante ParkerWR · Heavy rotation76%52 snaps
38Rhamondre StevensonRB · Heavy rotation62%42 snaps
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Jones pass+22% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right to 15-N.Agholor for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 0:30 · Patriots · 3rd & 3 at PIT 44 · gained 44 · +5.28 EP · +22.3% win probability
154 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps, manual charting on 143. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 75 yards from the PIT 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
40%
Yards
621
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR61+0.1157%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50-0.0770%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Steelers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 31
Patriots3Steelers0
Field goal14 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Steelers 9
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted11 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Patriots 42
Intercepted3 plays, from the Patriots 39 to the Patriots 44
The period ended3 plays, from the Steelers 34 to the Steelers 39
2nd quarter47 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.0 seconds
Patriots3Steelers3
Field goal15 plays, from the Steelers 43 to the Patriots 13
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 34 to the Patriots 42
Punt8 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Steelers 35
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Patriots9Steelers3
Patriots10Steelers3
Touchdown10 plays, from the Patriots 26 to the Steelers 44
The period ended8 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 48
3rd quarter43 plays
No good14 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Steelers 33
Patriots10Steelers6
Field goal8 plays, from the Steelers 42 to the Patriots 33
Punt7 plays, from the Patriots 17 to the Patriots 43
Patriots16Steelers6
Patriots17Steelers6
Touchdown4 plays, from the Steelers 10 to the Steelers 2
The period ended10 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Patriots 11
4th quarter41 plays
Patriots17Steelers12
Patriots17Steelers14
Touchdown2 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Patriots 28 to the Steelers 40
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 11 to the Steelers 15
Punt4 plays, from midfield to the Steelers 42
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Steelers 28
The period ended17 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Steelers 15
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
