For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
New York Jets 31, Browns 30 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:25, 3rd and 10, on Garrett Wilson — 34.4 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:25 · 3rd and 10
Garrett Wilson
Jets
(:25) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass short middle to 17-G.Wilson for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Browns closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New York Jets 31–30 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:25, Jets +34.4% win probability on one snap.
34.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Breece HallJetsQ2 0:15(:15) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass short right to 20-Br.Hall for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16.9pts
Ashtyn DavisJetsQ4 0:13(:13) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep left intended for 2-A.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Davis at NYJ 36. 21-A.Davis to 50 for 14 yards.
31.5pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 11 chunk plays, against Jets at 5 chunk plays.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 8 of 12 on third down, against Jets at 8 of 15 on third down.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jets at 45% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Jets at 3 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Jets173 of 184 plays carry both curves
(:25) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass short middle to 17-G.Wilson for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −34.4 for BrownsExpected points −3.93 for BrownsThe model had Jets 3 points higher than the market did.play 178
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:25CLE +34% win prob(:25) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass short middle to 17-G.Wilson for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:13NYJ +32% win prob(:13) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep left intended for 2-A.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Davis at NYJ 36. 21-A.Davis to 50 for 14 yards.
2nd · 0:15CLE +17% win prob(:15) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass short right to 20-Br.Hall for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 14:24CLE +15% win prob(14:24) 6-G.Zuerlein 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.
4th · 1:22NYJ +14% win prob7-B.Mann kicks onside 12 yards from NYJ 35 to NYJ 47. RECOVERED by NYJ-34-J.Hardee.
2nd · 3:30NYJ +10% win prob(3:30) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco sacked at CLE 20 for -8 yards (90-J.Clowney). FUMBLES (90-J.Clowney), RECOVERED by CLE-90-J.Clowney at CLE 21.
4th · 9:29
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Garrett Wilson's 15-yard touchdown catch with 0:25 left in the 4th put New York Jets ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th2:02Nick Chubb·12-yd TD run12-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide right+617–30
4th1:32Corey Davis·66-yd TD catch66-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Flaccofrom Joe Flacco+724–30
4th0:25Garrett Wilson·15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Flaccofrom Joe FlaccoLead never changed again+731–30
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jetscategory by categoryBrowns
Jets0–8Browns
403Total yards406
6.1Yards per play6.3
45%Success rate52%
53%Third-down rate67%
3Red-zone touchdowns4
5Explosive plays11
19First downs27
2Sacks taken1
1Turnovers1
The read
Browns ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.27Jets: +0.27 expected points added per play
+0.29Browns: +0.29 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.37Jets: +0.37 expected points added per play
+0.48Browns: +0.48 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.03Jets: +0.03 expected points added per play
+0.11Browns: +0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 66 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Browns’s 64 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Jets 5, Browns 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 11 pts
inside their normal wobble · −7.1 vs their 19.6%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.96× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Browns12.5%
right on their number · +1.2 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
NoteCLE's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 9.4%, 9.4 points below their season mean of 18.8% and 1.0 times their own 9.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Brissett pass−33% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:13) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep left intended for 2-A.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Davis at NYJ 36. 21-A.Davis to 50 for 14 yards.
Q4 0:13 · Browns · 1st & 10 at CLE 46 · gained nothing · -0.75 EP · −32.6% win probability
171 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 184 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 184 snaps, manual charting on 151. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 90 yards from the CLE 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
184 of 184 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
184
EPA per play
+0.18
Success rate
45%
Yards
807
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.3582%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR19+0.3558%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.6280%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.0246%
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11+0.229%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8+0.250%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7-0.0257%
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.2920%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Jets0 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Browns2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Jets0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
184 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 31 to the Jets 40
Jets0Browns6
Jets0Browns7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Browns 10 to the Jets 4
The period ended13 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Browns 37
2nd quarter47 plays
Jets6Browns7
Jets7Browns7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Browns 29 to the Browns 2
Jets7Browns13
Jets7Browns14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Browns 39 to the Jets 6
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Jets 30 to the Browns 12
Punt5 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Jets13Browns14
Jets14Browns14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Jets 46 to the Browns 10
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Jets14Browns17
Field goal12 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Jets 4
Punt11 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Browns 47
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 5 to the Browns 27
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.8 seconds
Drive ended8 plays, from the Jets 10 to the Browns 34
4th quarter1 plays
3rd quarter1 plays
The period ended1 play
4th quarter65 plays
Jets17Browns17
Field goal3 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defenders
Jets17Browns23
Jets17Browns24
Touchdown13 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Jets 7
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 32 to the Jets 38
Punt8 plays, from the Browns 31 to the Jets 34
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 8 to the Jets 10
Jets17Browns30
Touchdown10 plays, from the Jets 42 to the Jets 12
Jets23Browns30
Jets24Browns30
Touchdown4 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 34
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Jets30Browns30
Jets31Browns30
Touchdown11 plays, from the Jets 47 to the Browns 15
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerTwoPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 46
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
