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polling · 1800s tick · as of 8:35 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 18, 2022 · Levi's Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 2
It turned at Q1 4:09, 2nd and 8, on Deebo Samuel — 5.5 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
San Francisco 49ers 27–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 4:09, 49ers +5.5% win probability on one snap. Played in 16.9 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 4:09 · 2nd and 8
Deebo Samuel
49ers
(4:09) (Shotgun) 19-D.Samuel right end to SEA 23 for 51 yards (27-T.Woolen).
5.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Seahawks at 1 chunk play.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.03 expected points per snap, against Seahawks at -0.35 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
49ers won this one — no giveaways, against Seahawks at 2 giveaways.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
49ers won this one — +0.06 expected points per dropback, against Seahawks at -0.39 expected points per dropback.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 6.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
(4:09) (Shotgun) 19-D.Samuel right end to SEA 23 for 51 yards (27-T.Woolen).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Robbie Gould's 20-yard field goal with 9:20 left in the 1st put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Robbie Gould20-yd field goal20-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.PepperLead never changed again+30–36 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Seahawkscategory by category49ers
49ers ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 47 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against 49ers’s 70 at 36%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 1, 49ers 6.
49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.35.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
SF's early-down pass rate, 25.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 8.3 points clear of the next team along.
52 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.7 points. · −1.8σ from their own normal
SF's sack or hit rate turned over: 13.0% in week 1 against 27.3% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.0 points. · +2.0σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 22 pts
Over Expected room →Seahawks-1.5 ptsright on their number · −3.5 vs their 2.0 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 47 snaps
49ers-18.2 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −14.1 vs their -4.1 pts, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−1.90× that swing) · 70 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 15% to 89%
Tendencies room →Seahawks72.5%leaned — passed early · +12.6 vs their 59.9%, and they swing ±11.1 week to week (+1.14× that swing) · 40 early downs
49ers25.0%leaned — ran early · −22.7 vs their 47.7%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (−1.80× that swing) · 52 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 47%
Tendencies room →Seahawks24.2%right on their number · +0.3 vs their 23.9%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+0.03× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
49ers20.0%right on their number · +0.1 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27% to 98%
Fourth Down room →Seahawks0.0%leaned — took the kick · −37.5 vs their 37.5%, and they swing ±23.4 week to week (−1.60× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
49ers33.3%right on their number · +8.6 vs their 24.8%, and they swing ±19.8 week to week (+0.43× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 49%
Tendencies room →Seahawks28.0%inside their normal wobble · +8.7 vs their 19.3%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (+0.76× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
49ers12.1%leaned — sat back · −6.1 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−1.01× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 33%
Tendencies room →Seahawks16.0%right on their number · +0.1 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
49ers27.3%leaned — got home · +9.8 vs their 17.4%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+1.98× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
SF's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 27.3%, 9.8 points above their season mean of 17.4% and 2.0 times their own 5.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 5 inactive
Inactive · 5
Who moved the needle
Passing · SEA
24/30, 197 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-7.9 expected points added · +13.8% completion over expected
Passing · SF
13/21, 154 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
2.2 expected points added · -3.6% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Ross Dwelley banked 8.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler LockettWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.7 | +4.6 | 92% | 97% | 37% | 69% | 9/11, 107 yd |
| Jimmy GaroppoloQB · Starter QB | 16.7 | +3.1 | 79% | — | 0% | — | 13/21, 154 yd, 1 TD · 4 car, 5 yd, 1 TD |
| Deebo SamuelWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.7 | +3.6 | 78% | 92% | 25% | 0% | 4 car, 53 yd · 5/6, 44 yd |
| Jeffery WilsonRB · Committee Back | 12.3 | −3.8 | 49% | 40% | 8% | 6% | 18 car, 84 yd · 2/2, 19 yd |
| Brandon AiyukWR · Alpha Receiver | 11.3 | −0.6 | 88% | 92% | 33% | 45% | 5/8, 63 yd |
| Ross DwelleyTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.8 | +8.9 | 37% | 52% | 4% | 9% | 1/1, 38 yd, 1 TD |
| Travis HomerRB · Receiving Back | 8.2 | +2.4 | 45% | 52% | 13% | 0% | 2 car, 9 yd · 4/4, 33 yd |
| DK MetcalfWR · Featured Receiver | 7.5 | −1.8 | 92% | 88% | 20% | 29% | 4/6, 35 yd |
| Kyle JuszczykRB | 6.1 | −2.6 | 53% | 36% | 4% | 3% | 2 car, 1 yd, 1 TD · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Geno SmithQB · Starter QB | 6.1 | −1.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 24/30, 197 yd, 1 INT · 2 car, 2 yd |
| Kenneth WalkerRB · Receiving Back | 3.5 | −2.0 | 25% | 18% | 10% | 1% | 4 car, 10 yd · 2/3, 5 yd |
| Tyrion Davis-PriceRB · Committee Back | 3.3 | −7.1 | 39% | 40% | 0% | — | 14 car, 33 yd |
| Noah FantTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | +1.0 | 53% | 52% | 7% | 4% | 2/2, 11 yd |
| Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | −0.6 | 24% | 36% | 8% | 10% | 1/2, 16 yd |
| Trey LanceQB | 2.5 | −1.6 | 21% | — | 0% | — | 2/3, 30 yd · 3 car, 13 yd |
| Will DisslyTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | −0.7 | 47% | 39% | 7% | 0% | 2/2, 0 yd |
| D'Wayne EskridgeWR | 1.6 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Rashaad PennyRB | 1.5 | −1.0 | 41% | 36% | 0% | — | 6 car, 15 yd |
| Jauan JenningsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −1.0 | 46% | 48% | 8% | 0% | 1/2, 4 yd |
| Marquise GoodwinWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −0.7 | 53% | 61% | 3% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jordan MasonRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Danny GrayWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.7 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| DeeJay DallasRB | -2.0 | −3.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(11:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep left to 82-R.Dwelley for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 22 YAC
Q2 11:28 · 49ers · 1st & 10 at SEA 38 · gained 38 · +3.50 EP · +8.7% win probability
149 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 162 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, manual charting on 137. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 74 yards from the SF 11 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Seahawks0
49ers3Seahawks049ers6Seahawks049ers12Seahawks049ers13Seahawks049ers19Seahawks049ers20Seahawks649ers20Seahawks749ers20Seahawks749ers26Seahawks749ers27Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Seahawks at 49ers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 24/30 | 197 | 0 | 1 | 2 | −7.9 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | −4.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashaad Penny | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Kenneth Walker | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 9 | 11 | 107 | 0 | 37% | +1.5 |
| DK Metcalf | 4 | 6 | 35 | 0 | 20% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Barton | 4 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordyn Brooks | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Al Woods |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 13/21 | 154 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2.2 |
| Trey Lance | 2/3 | 30 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_02_SEA_SF
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -8.5 and covered, winning by 20.
Total closed 40; the game landed 34 — under by 6.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
Wind at 16.9 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| Travis Homer | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Geno Smith | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | −2.0 |
| −5.4 |
| Travis Homer | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 13% | −0.3 |
| Noah Fant | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 7% | −0.1 |
| D'Wayne Eskridge | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| Kenneth Walker | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 10% | −1.8 |
| Will Dissly | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −1.3 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| 6 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Michael Jackson | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Boye Mafe | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Coby Bryant | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quandre Diggs | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Jones | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tariq Woolen | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darrell Taylor | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| −0.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeffery Wilson | 18 | 84 | 4.7 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Deebo Samuel | 4 | 53 | 13.3 | 0 | +2.1 |
| Tyrion Davis-Price | 14 | 33 | 2.4 | 0 | −6.2 |
| Trey Lance | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 1 | +1.6 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 | +0.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aiyuk | 5 | 8 | 63 | 0 | 33% | −0.5 |
| Deebo Samuel | 5 | 6 | 44 | 0 | 25% | +1.8 |
| Ross Dwelley | 1 | 1 | 38 | 1 | 4% | +3.5 |
| Jeffery Wilson | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 8% | +0.9 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 8% | +0.8 |
| Jauan Jennings | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8% | +0.7 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.6 |
| Danny Gray | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −3.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charvarius Ward | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Dre Greenlaw | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Talanoa Hufanga | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Samson Ebukam | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Moseley | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Fred Warner | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Givens | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Samuel Womack | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Bosa | 2 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tashaun Gipson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
