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polling · 1800s tick · as of 1:08 AM ET · 16 to play
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 at New Orleans Saints 10. Final.
Buccaneers -2.5 ✓U 44 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20, Saints 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 7:49, 3rd and 5, on Breshad Perriman — 19.0 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 7:49 · 3rd and 5
Breshad Perriman
Buccaneers
(7:49) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 16-B.Perriman for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 28, YAC 0
Dome
Buccaneers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 10.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20–10. Biggest swing: Q4 7:49, Buccaneers +19.0% win probability on one snap.
19.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetSaintsQ1 4:26(4:26) 12-T.Brady FUMBLES (Aborted) at NO 26, touched at NO 25, RECOVERED by NO-56-D.Davis at NO 25.
15.1pts
Mark IngramBuccaneersQ3 1:19(1:19) (Shotgun) 22-M.Ingram left guard to TB 11 for 9 yards (26-L.Ryan; 54-L.David). FUMBLES (26-L.Ryan), RECOVERED by TB-94-C.Nassib at TB 10.
16.2pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Buccaneers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Saints at 5 giveaways.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Saints owned this one and still lost it — -0.28 expected points per carry, against Buccaneers at -0.68 expected points per carry.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Buccaneers won this one — +0.07 expected points per dropback, against Saints at -0.46 expected points per dropback.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Saints owned this one and still lost it — 39% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Buccaneers at 29% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Buccaneers170 of 176 plays carry both curves
(7:49) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 16-B.Perriman for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 28, YAC 0
Swing −19.0 for SaintsExpected points −3.70 for SaintsThe model had Saints 10 points higher than the market did.play 131
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 7:49NO +19% win prob(7:49) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 16-B.Perriman for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 28, YAC 0
3rd · 1:19TB +16% win prob(1:19) (Shotgun) 22-M.Ingram left guard to TB 11 for 9 yards (26-L.Ryan; 54-L.David). FUMBLES (26-L.Ryan), RECOVERED by TB-94-C.Nassib at TB 10.
1st · 4:26TB +15% win prob(4:26) 12-T.Brady FUMBLES (Aborted) at NO 26, touched at NO 25, RECOVERED by NO-56-D.Davis at NO 25.
2nd · 15:00NO +12% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 13-M.Evans pushed ob at NO 30 for 41 yards (30-J.Evans; 6-M.Maye). Pass 17, YAC 24
4th · 10:28NO +11% win prob(10:28) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 84-C.Brate to TB 45 for 9 yards (56-D.Davis). PENALTY on NO-21-B.Roby, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at TB 45. Pass 4, YAC 5
4th · 14:15NO +10% win prob(14:15) (Punt formation) PENALTY on NO, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, 5 yards, enforced at TB 19 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Breshad Perriman's 28-yard touchdown catch with 7:49 left in the 4th put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:06Wil Lutz·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap Z.Wood+30–3
3rd6:49Ryan Succop·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder J.Camarda · snap Z.Triner+33–3
4th7:49Breshad Perriman·28-yd TD catch28-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom BradyLead never changed again+710–3
4th5:55Ryan Succop·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder J.Camarda · snap Z.Triner+313–3
Saints ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.68 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.26Buccaneers: −0.26 expected points added per play
−0.40Saints: −0.40 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.07Buccaneers: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.46Saints: −0.46 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.68Buccaneers: −0.68 expected points added per play
−0.28Saints: −0.28 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 63 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Saints’s 66 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 2, Saints 3.
NoteSaints outgained Buccaneers 308-262 but lost the turnover battle 5-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32 pts to 25 pts
right on their number · +1.2 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.21× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Saints5.7%
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.1 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−1.42× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
NoteNO's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 5.7%, 7.1 points below their season mean of 12.8% and 1.4 times their own 5.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q2Q3Q4
T.Brady pass+24% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(7:49) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 16-B.Perriman for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 28, YAC 0
Q4 7:49 · Buccaneers · 3rd & 5 at NO 28 · gained 28 · +3.70 EP · +24.3% win probability
168 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps, manual charting on 157. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 80 yards from the TB 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
-0.24
Success rate
35%
Yards
568
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44-0.5580%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.0969%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24-0.5933%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.2855%
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Saints0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
Buccaneers0Saints3
Field goal12 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Buccaneers 12
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Saints 26
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 44
The period ended3 plays, from the Buccaneers 23 to the Buccaneers 29
2nd quarter42 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Buccaneers 29 to the Saints 8
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 9 to the Saints 13
Punt5 plays, from midfield to the Saints 48
Punt13 plays, from the Saints 7 to the Saints 39
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 13 to the Buccaneers 14
Punt8 plays, from the Saints 31 to the Buccaneers 39
The period ended1 play
3rd quarter1 plays
2nd quarter1 plays
The period ended1 play
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Buccaneers 26 to the Buccaneers 45
Punt4 plays
Buccaneers3Saints3
Field goal9 plays, from the Buccaneers 43 to the Saints 29
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Buccaneers 20
The period ended3 plays, from the Buccaneers 10 to the Buccaneers 15
4th quarter63 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 19 to the Buccaneers 31
Intercepted2 plays, from the Saints 45 to the Saints 47
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.0 seconds
Buccaneers9Saints3
Buccaneers10Saints3
Touchdown11 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Saints 28
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Intercepted3 plays
Buccaneers13Saints3
Field goal4 plays
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Buccaneers19Saints3
Touchdown6 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Buccaneers 42
Buccaneers20Saints3
Buccaneers20Saints9
Buccaneers20Saints10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Buccaneers 7
Punt8 plays, from the Saints 43 to the Saints 37
Fumble lost1 play
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 34 to the Buccaneers 36
Turnover on downs4 plays
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Buccaneers -2.5
Closing total
44
Buccaneers moneyline
-138
Saints moneyline
+124
Buccaneers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 10.
Total closed 44; the game landed 30 — under by 14.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Buccaneers 7 days · Saints 7 days
Coaches
Todd Bowles vs Dennis Allen
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
4th · 11:58TB +9% win prob(11:58) 2-J.Winston pass deep middle intended for 12-C.Olave INTERCEPTED by 35-J.Dean at TB 0. Touchback.
4th · 4:23TB +9% win prob(4:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass short left intended for 5-J.Landry INTERCEPTED by 32-M.Edwards at TB 32. 32-M.Edwards for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
