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2022 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 18, 2022 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

20

New Orleans Saints

10

TB -2.5 ✓U 44 ✓Dome

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20–10. Biggest swing: Q4 7:49, NO +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3NOTB
Q4 · 7:49TB 9NO 3TB ball · 3rd & 5TB 67%

(7:49) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 16-B.Perriman for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 28, YAC 0

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 7:49NO +19% win prob(7:49) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 16-B.Perriman for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 28, YAC 0
  2. Q3 · 1:19TB +16% win prob(1:19) (Shotgun) 22-M.Ingram left guard to TB 11 for 9 yards (26-L.Ryan; 54-L.David). FUMBLES (26-L.Ryan), RECOVERED by TB-94-C.Nassib at TB 10.
  3. Q1 · 4:26TB +15% win prob(4:26) 12-T.Brady FUMBLES (Aborted) at NO 26, touched at NO 25, RECOVERED by NO-56-D.Davis at NO 25.
  4. Q2 · 15:00NO +12% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 13-M.Evans pushed ob at NO 30 for 41 yards (30-J.Evans; 6-M.Maye). Pass 17, YAC 24

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:06NO Field goal

    (9:06) 3-W.Lutz 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

    Score after this play: TB 0NO 3
  2. Q3 · 6:49TB Field goal

    (6:49) 3-R.Succop 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

    Score after this play: TB 3NO 3
  3. Q4 · 7:49TB Touchdown

    (7:49) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 16-B.Perriman for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 28, YAC 0 (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 10NO 3
  4. Q4 · 5:55TB Field goal

    (5:55) 3-R.Succop 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

    Score after this play: TB 13NO 3
  5. Q4 · 4:23TB Touchdown

    (4:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass short left intended for 5-J.Landry INTERCEPTED by 32-M.Edwards at TB 32. 32-M.Edwards for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 20NO 3
  6. Q4 · 3:07NO Touchdown

    (3:07) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass short right to 13-M.Thomas for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 20NO 10

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBuccaneersSaints
Offensive plays6366
Total yards262308 (edge)
Yards per play4.24.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.26 (edge)-0.40
Success rate29%39% (edge)
Dropback rate56%71%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.07 (edge)-0.46
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.68-0.28 (edge)
Third downs5/174/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)45 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1016 (edge)
Sacks taken1 (edge)6
Turnovers1 (edge)5

Saints outgained Buccaneers 308–262 but lost the turnover battle 5–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Jameis WinstonQB

25/40, 236 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT

-16.2 expected points added · -2.3% completion over expected

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

18/34, 190 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

2.4 expected points added · -13.1% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Leonard FournetteRB

24 att, 65 yds, 0 TD

-11.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Mark IngramRB

10 att, 58 yds, 0 TD

-4.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Chris OlaveWR

5/13 for 80 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · -7.6 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Michael ThomasWR

6/9 for 65 yds, 1 TD

23% of team targets · 7.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1NONO 2512635:58Field goal +3
2TBTB 2510494:41Fumble
3NONO 25723:46Punt
4TBTB 238683:23Turnover on downs
5NONO 9441:35Punt
6TB50452:17Punt
7NONO 710375:18Punt
8TBTB 13461:19Punt
9NONO 317151:21Punt
10TBTB 14100:22End of half
11TBTB 2610244:12Punt
12NONO 16400:55Punt
13TBTB 439283:09Field goal +3
14NONO 2510645:33Fumble
15TBTB 107143:29Punt
16NONO 45220:54Interception
17TBTB 2010604:07Touchdown +7
18NONO 333-50:56Interception
19TBNO 29400:55Field goal +3
20NONO 306281:39Defensive touchdown
21NONO 258381:09Touchdown +7
22TBNO 43560:25Punt
23NONO 101510:10Fumble
24TBTB 34421:20Punt
25NONO 23491:04Turnover on downs
26TBNO 32100:03End of game

5 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 68 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tom Brady18/341901012.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Leonard Fournette24652.70-11.7
Scott Miller188.00-0.4
Rachaad White210.50-1.3
Tom Brady3-2-0.70-7.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Mike Evans3461012%6.3
Breshad Perriman3545115%3.4
Scott Miller3834024%-1.8
Russell Gage5628018%-0.6
Leonard Fournette249012%-1.8
Cameron Brate12906%1.6
Cade Otton12406%-1.1
Rachaad White02006%-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Devin White561.001
Carlton Davis810.001
Jamel Dean330.022
Antoine Winfield511.000
Lavonte David331.000
Shaquil Barrett502.000
Joe Tryon130.500
Mike Edwards030.011
Akiem Hicks210.000
Logan Ryan120.001

New Orleans Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jameis Winston25/40236136-16.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Mark Ingram10585.80-4.4
Dwayne Washington4184.500.6
Taysom Hill3144.70-1.1
Tony Jones284.00-0.4
Jameis Winston122.00-0.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Chris Olave51380033%-7.6
Michael Thomas6965123%7.0
Juwan Johnson4740018%-2.4
Jarvis Landry4525013%-9.8
Tony Jones221205%-0.1
Deonte Harty11903%-1.6
Mark Ingram22305%-0.9
Adam Prentice11203%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Shy Tuttle270.501
Pete Werner620.001
Justin Evans250.000
Demario Davis140.001
Bradley Roby410.000
Kaden Elliss120.001
Carl Granderson120.000
Cameron Jordan120.000
Tyrann Mathieu300.000
David Onyemata210.500

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
TB -2.5
Closing total
44
TB moneyline
-138
NO moneyline
+124

Buccaneers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 10.

Total closed 44; the game landed 30 — under by 14.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
TB 7 days · NO 7 days
Coaches
Todd Bowles vs Dennis Allen

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.