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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
Buffalo Bills 41, Titans 7 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 5:27, 4th and 1, on Derrick Henry — 7.0 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:27 · 4th and 1
Derrick Henry
Titans
(5:27) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Bills closed -10 and covered, winning by 34.
Buffalo Bills 41–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 5:27, Titans +7.0% win probability on one snap.
7.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Josh AllenBillsQ1 12:36(12:36) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles left end to TEN 44 for 10 yards (21-R.McCreary).
5.2pts
Tyler BassBillsQ2 7:25(7:25) 2-T.Bass 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
5.6pts
What separated them
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.23 expected points per snap, against Titans at -0.38 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Bills won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Titans at 0 chunk plays.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bills won this one — no giveaways, against Titans at 3 giveaways.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.39 expected points per dropback, against Titans at -0.42 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Titans160 of 166 plays carry both curves
(5:27) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −7.0 for BillsExpected points −2.92 for BillsThe model had Titans 17 points higher than the market did.play 26
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 5:27BUF +7% win prob(5:27) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 7:25BUF +6% win prob(7:25) 2-T.Bass 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
1st · 12:36BUF +5% win prob(12:36) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles left end to TEN 44 for 10 yards (21-R.McCreary).
1st · 12:59TEN +5% win prob(12:59) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 26-D.Singletary to BUF 46 for 1 yard (21-R.McCreary). BUF-60-M.Morse was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. M.Morse walks off.
2nd · 13:34BUF +5% win prob(13:34) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 16-T.Burks pushed ob at BUF 46 for 16 yards (21-J.Poyer).
1st · 3:24BUF +5% win prob(3:24) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 14-S.Diggs. PENALTY on TEN-30-T.Avery, Defensive Pass Interference, 13 yards, enforced at BUF 47 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tyler Bass's 49-yard field goal with 7:25 left in the 2nd put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Bills ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.42 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.38Titans: −0.38 expected points added per play
+0.23Bills: +0.23 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.42Titans: −0.42 expected points added per play
+0.39Bills: +0.39 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.33Titans: −0.33 expected points added per play
−0.10Bills: −0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 53 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Bills’s 63 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Titans 1, Bills 6.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs -0.38.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
BUF's pass rate over expected, +18.2 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 2.9 points clear of the next team along.
63 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points.
TEN's sack or hit rate turned over: 25.8% in week 1 against 7.1% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.0 points.
BUF's sack or hit rate turned over: 30.6% in week 1 against 10.7% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 3.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -37 pts to 28 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.8 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.84× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Bills10.7%
inside their normal wobble · −3.3 vs their 14.0%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.55× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
NoteBUF's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 18.2 pts, 12.0 points above their season mean of 6.1 pts and 1.6 times their own 7.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 5 inactive
78Nicholas Petit-FrereT · Every snap100%56 snaps
55Aaron BrewerC · Every snap100%56 snaps
64Nate DavisG · Every snap100%56 snaps
71Dennis DaleyG · Full-time98%55 snaps
60Ben JonesC · Heavy rotation70%39 snaps
17Ryan TannehillQB · Heavy rotation70%39 snaps
2Robert WoodsWR · Heavy rotation66%37 snaps
15Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Heavy rotation61%34 snaps
25Hassan HaskinsRB · Heavy rotation50%28 snaps
81Austin HooperTE · Heavy rotation50%28 snaps
87Geoff SwaimTE · Rotational48%27 snaps
22Derrick HenryRB · Rotational46%26 snaps
16Treylon BurksWR · Rotational45%25 snaps
8Cody HollisterWR · Rotational34%19 snaps
19Josh GordonWR · Rotational32%18 snaps
62Corey LevinC · Rotational30%17 snaps
7Malik WillisQB · Rotational30%17 snaps
85Chigoziem OkonkwoTE · Rotational29%16 snaps
18Kyle PhilipsWR · Situational23%13 snaps
44Tory CarterFB · Situational11%6 snaps
75Dillon RadunzT · Situational5%3 snaps
77Taylor LewanT · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 5
Kristian FultonCBDerrek TuszkaOLBDontrell HilliardRBJulius ChestnutRBJamarco JonesT
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Henry up+11% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(5:27) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 5:27 · Titans · 4th & 1 at BUF 2 · gained 2 · +2.92 EP · +11.1% win probability
158 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps, manual charting on 142. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 80 yards from the BUF 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
43%
Yards
601
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.3669%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.5556%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.0131%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11-0.0955%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Titans0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Bills0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Titans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Titans0Bills6
Titans0Bills7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Titans 11
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Titans6Bills7
Titans7Bills7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Bills 2
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Titans 31
Drive ended4 plays, from the Titans 31 to the Titans 40
2nd quarter1 plays
1st quarter1 plays
The period ended1 play
2nd quarter39 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Titans 34 to the Bills 46
Titans7Bills10
Field goal9 plays, from the Bills 18 to the Titans 26
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 29
Titans7Bills16
Titans7Bills17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bills 23 to the Titans 4
The period ended6 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 37
3rd quarter55 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 46
Titans7Bills23
Titans7Bills24
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Titans 46
Punt5 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 44 to the Titans 47
Titans7Bills27
Field goal4 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Titans 19
Intercepted4 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 33
Titans7Bills33
Titans7Bills34
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bills 49 to the Titans 14
Titans7Bills40
Touchdown5 plays, from the Titans 29 to the Titans 49
Titans7Bills41
Punt8 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 44
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter30 plays
Punt3 plays
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Titans 36 to the Bills 34
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 36 to the Bills 39
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 11 to the Titans 19
The period ended11 plays, from the Bills 33 to the Titans 13
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
