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2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Commanders171 of 179 plays carry both curves
(13:45) 3-J.Fox punts 60 yards to WAS 29, Center-47-S.Daly. 15-D.Milne to WAS 32 for 3 yards (27-B.Price).
Swing +12.9 for LionsExpected points +0.94 for LionsThe model had Lions 19 points higher than the market did.play 7
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 13:45DET +13% win prob(13:45) 3-J.Fox punts 60 yards to WAS 29, Center-47-S.Daly. 15-D.Milne to WAS 32 for 3 yards (27-B.Price).
1st · 10:18DET +12% win prob(10:18) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown pushed ob at WAS 24 for 49 yards (22-D.Forrest).
1st · 14:21WAS +11% win prob(14:21) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at DET 11 for -12 yards (52-J.Davis).
3rd · 2:58DET +10% win prob(2:58) 14-A.St. Brown right end to WAS 17 for 58 yards (25-B.St-Juste).
1st · 6:22DET +10% win prob(6:22) 32-D.Swift right tackle to WAS 7 for 50 yards (20-B.McCain).
1st · 3:17DET +8% win prob5-T.Way kicks 63 yards from WAS 20 to DET 17. 11-K.Raymond to WAS 31 for 52 yards (39-J.Reaves).
1st · 4:07WAS +8% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Austin Seibert's 35-yard field goal with 8:10 left in the 1st put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:10Austin Seibert·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap S.DalyLead never changed again+30–3
1st3:22Lions·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+20–5
1st1:45Amon-Ra St. Brown·13-yd TD catch13-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+70–12
2nd13:51Austin Seibert·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap S.Daly+30–15
2nd6:47Josh Reynolds·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+70–22
Lions ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.05Commanders: +0.05 expected points added per play
+0.06Lions: +0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.09Commanders: +0.09 expected points added per play
+0.03Lions: +0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.08Commanders: −0.08 expected points added per play
+0.10Lions: +0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 74 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Lions’s 59 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 4, Lions 6.
NoteLions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.06 expected points added per play vs 0.05.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DET's pass rate over expected turned over: −8.4 pts in week 1 against +8.2 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
59 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 15 pts
inside their normal wobble · +8.2 vs their 18.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+0.84× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Lions20.0%
inside their normal wobble · +5.4 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.62× that swing) · 55 dropbacks
NoteDET's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 8.2 pts, 10.1 points above their season mean of -1.8 pts and 1.6 times their own 6.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Goff pass+13% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(10:18) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown pushed ob at WAS 24 for 49 yards (22-D.Forrest).
Q1 10:18 · Lions · 3rd & 3 at DET 27 · gained 49 · +4.05 EP · +12.5% win probability
169 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 28 drives, personnel groupings on 179 snaps, manual charting on 149. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 28 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 94 yards from the WAS 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
38%
Yards
823
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR69+0.0572%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.0172%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR10-0.0540%
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.9440%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 28
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 32 to the Commanders 38
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Commanders0Lions3
Field goal7 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Commanders 17
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 16 to the Commanders 17
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Lions 43 to the Commanders 3
Commanders0Lions5
Drive ended2 plays, from the Commanders 3 to the Commanders 5
Commanders0Lions11
Commanders0Lions12
Touchdown6 plays, from the Commanders 31 to the Commanders 13
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 16 to the Commanders 21
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter46 plays
Commanders0Lions15
Field goal4 plays, from the Commanders 35 to the Commanders 30
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 32
Commanders0Lions21
Commanders0Lions22
Touchdown10 plays, from the Lions 23 to the Commanders 3
Punt9 plays, from the Commanders 27 to the Commanders 42
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 18 to the Lions 24
The period ended8 plays, from the Commanders 20 to the Commanders 34
Punt4 plays
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Commanders6Lions22
Commanders7Lions22
Touchdown7 plays, from the Commanders 36 to the Lions 15
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 29
Intercepted3 plays, from the Commanders 27 to the Lions 47
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Lions 41
Commanders13Lions22
Commanders15Lions22
Touchdown8 plays, from the Commanders 6 to the Lions 20
Commanders15Lions28
Commanders15Lions29
Touchdown6 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Commanders 17
The period ended5 plays, from the Commanders 17 to the Commanders 25
4th quarter49 plays
Commanders21Lions29
Touchdown10 plays, from the Commanders 26 to the Lions 1
Commanders21Lions35
Commanders21Lions36
Touchdown8 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Commanders 11
Commanders27Lions36
Touchdown16 plays, from the Commanders 24 to the Lions 1
The period ended8 plays, from the Commanders 40 to the Commanders 33
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Commanders 33 to the Commanders 39
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
