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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:48 AM ET · 16 to play
Atlanta Falcons 27, Seahawks 23 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 2:00, 3rd and 8, on Geno Smith — 20.9 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:00 · 3rd and 8
Geno Smith
Falcons
(2:00) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at ATL 38 for -10 yards (97-G.Jarrett).
Seahawks closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Atlanta Falcons 27–23. Biggest swing: Q4 2:00, Falcons +20.9% win probability on one snap.
20.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetSeahawksQ4 5:16(5:16) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota to SEA 37 for -3 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by SEA-10-U.Nwosu at SEA 37.
18.5pts
Richie GrantFalconsQ4 1:30(1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right intended for 16-T.Lockett INTERCEPTED by 27-R.Grant at ATL 6. 27-R.Grant to ATL 18 for 12 yards.
16.9pts
What separated them
Red zone
Falcons won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Seahawks at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Falcons won this one — +0.59 expected points per dropback, against Seahawks at +0.26 expected points per dropback.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Seahawks owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Falcons at 2 giveaways.
Seahawksthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Falcons won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Seahawks at 8 chunk plays.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on Falcons157 of 164 plays carry both curves
(2:00) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at ATL 38 for -10 yards (97-G.Jarrett).
Swing −20.9 for SeahawksExpected points −2.28 for SeahawksThe model had Falcons 5 points higher than the market did.play 156
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:00ATL +21% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at ATL 38 for -10 yards (97-G.Jarrett).
4th · 5:16ATL +18% win prob(5:16) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota to SEA 37 for -3 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by SEA-10-U.Nwosu at SEA 37.
4th · 1:30ATL +17% win prob(1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right intended for 16-T.Lockett INTERCEPTED by 27-R.Grant at ATL 6. 27-R.Grant to ATL 18 for 12 yards.
4th · 2:16ATL +15% win prob(2:16) (No Huddle) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 20-R.Penny to ATL 10 for 14 yards (28-M.Ford). PENALTY on SEA-68-D.Lewis, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 24 - No Play.
2nd · 4:39SEA +13% win prob(4:39) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 11-M.Goodwin pushed ob at ATL 18 for 23 yards (29-C.Hayward).
3rd · 3:11SEA +12% win prob(3:11) 84-C.Patterson right guard ran ob at SEA 35 for 40 yards (13-J.Jones).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Drake London's 14-yard touchdown catch with 0:41 left in the 3rd put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st10:23Jason Myers·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Tinker+30–3
2nd0:09Jason Myers·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Tinker+317–20
3rd10:07Younghoe Koo·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap L.McCullough+320–20
3rd3:15Jason Myers·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Tinker+320–23
3rd0:41Drake London·14-yd TD catch14-yard touchdown catchfrom Marcus Mariotafrom Marcus MariotaLead never changed again+727–23
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Falconscategory by categorySeahawks
Falcons4–5Seahawks
388Total yards420
7.5Yards per play6.1
52%Success rate57%
57%Third-down rate53%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
10Explosive plays8
21First downs23
3Sacks taken2
2Turnovers1
The read
Seahawks ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.59 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.32Falcons: +0.32 expected points added per play
+0.19Seahawks: +0.19 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.59Falcons: +0.59 expected points added per play
+0.26Seahawks: +0.26 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.07Falcons: +0.07 expected points added per play
+0.06Seahawks: +0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 52 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 69 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 4, Seahawks 5.
NoteFalcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.32 expected points added per play vs 0.19.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
ATL's blitz rate sent, 56.5%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 12.5 points clear of the next team along.
2.5 times their own weekly swing above their number.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.3 points.
SEA's blitz rate sent, 44.0%, sat 24.7 points above their season number of 19.3% — they sent pressure by 2.2 times their own 11.4-point weekly swing.
25 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 22 pts
right on their number · −0.0 vs their 10.9%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−0.00× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Seahawks24.0%
leaned — got home · +8.1 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+1.23× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
NoteATL's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 56.5%, 33.2 points above their season mean of 23.3% and 2.5 times their own 13.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
76Kaleb McGaryT · Every snap100%57 snaps
70Jake MatthewsT · Every snap100%57 snaps
63Chris LindstromG · Every snap100%57 snaps
66Colby GossettG · Every snap100%57 snaps
67Drew DalmanC · Every snap100%57 snaps
1Marcus MariotaQB · Every snap100%57 snaps
5Drake LondonWR · Full-time84%48 snaps
46Parker HesseTE · Heavy rotation75%43 snaps
17Olamide ZaccheausWR · Heavy rotation67%38 snaps
8Kyle PittsTE · Heavy rotation67%38 snaps
84Cordarrelle PattersonRB · Heavy rotation61%35 snaps
40Keith SmithFB · Rotational40%23 snaps
25Tyler AllgeierRB · Rotational37%21 snaps
12KhaDarel HodgeWR · Situational19%11 snaps
86Anthony FirkserTE · Situational16%9 snaps
88Frank DarbyWR · Situational12%7 snaps
83Jared BernhardtWR · Situational12%7 snaps
35Avery WilliamsRB · Situational7%4 snaps
15Feleipe FranksQB · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Matt DickersonDTNick KwiatkoskiILBQuinton BellOLBElijah WilkinsonTBryan EdwardsWRDamiere ByrdWR
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
G.Smith pass−20% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right intended for 16-T.Lockett INTERCEPTED by 27-R.Grant at ATL 6. 27-R.Grant to ATL 18 for 12 yards.
Q4 1:30 · Seahawks · 4th & 18 at ATL 38 · gained nothing · -0.88 EP · −19.6% win probability
155 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 164 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps, manual charting on 138. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 89 yards from the ATL 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
164 of 164 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
164
EPA per play
+0.20
Success rate
51%
Yards
806
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.1472%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23+0.2461%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR17+0.5335%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.3557%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR10-0.3430%
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.0050%
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.3167%
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Falcons0Seahawks3
Field goal12 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Falcons 14
Falcons6Seahawks3
Falcons7Seahawks3
Touchdown10 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Seahawks 1
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Falcons7Seahawks9
Falcons7Seahawks10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Seahawks 26 to the Falcons 15
Falcons10Seahawks10
Field goal11 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Seahawks 7
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter46 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 33 to the Seahawks 41
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Falcons16Seahawks10
Falcons17Seahawks10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Falcons 11 to the Seahawks 17
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Falcons17Seahawks16
Falcons17Seahawks17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Falcons 18
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 27
Falcons17Seahawks20
Field goal12 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Falcons 13
Intercepted1 play
3rd quarter38 plays
Falcons20Seahawks20
Field goal12 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Seahawks 24
Falcons20Seahawks23
Field goal16 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Falcons 7
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldTwo quarterbacks, two backs, one tight end and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.6 seconds
Falcons26Seahawks23
Falcons27Seahawks23
Touchdown7 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Seahawks 14
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter36 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Seahawks 28 to midfield
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Falcons 10 to the Seahawks 34
How the play was built
No huddle, a man in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.9 seconds
Intercepted10 plays, from the Seahawks 37 to the Falcons 24
The period ended7 plays, from the Falcons 18 to the Falcons 28
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
