For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Not startedThis page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:44 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 25, 2022 · Lumen Field
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 3
It turned at Q4 2:00, 3rd and 8, on Geno Smith — 20.9 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Atlanta Falcons 27–23. Biggest swing: Q4 2:00, Falcons +20.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:00 · 3rd and 8
Geno Smith
Falcons
(2:00) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at ATL 38 for -10 yards (97-G.Jarrett).
20.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Falcons won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Seahawks at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Falcons won this one — +0.59 expected points per dropback, against Seahawks at +0.26 expected points per dropback.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Seahawks owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Falcons at 2 giveaways.
Seahawksthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Falcons won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Seahawks at 8 chunk plays.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
(2:00) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at ATL 38 for -10 yards (97-G.Jarrett).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Drake London's 14-yard touchdown catch with 0:41 left in the 3rd put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Drake London14-yd TD catch14-yard touchdown catchfrom Marcus MariotaLead never changed again+727–2310 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Falconscategory by categorySeahawks
Seahawks ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.59 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 52 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 69 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 4, Seahawks 5.
Falcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.32 expected points added per play vs 0.19.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
ATL's blitz rate sent, 56.5%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 12.5 points clear of the next team along.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.3 points. · +2.5σ from their own normal
SEA's blitz rate sent, 44.0%, sat 24.7 points above their season number of 19.3% — they sent pressure by 2.2 times their own 11.4-point weekly swing.
25 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.4 points. · +2.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 22 pts
Over Expected room →Falcons-5.3 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +8.6 vs their -13.9 pts, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+1.56× that swing) · 52 snaps
Seahawks0.2 ptsright on their number · −1.8 vs their 2.0 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.23× that swing) · 69 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 89%
Tendencies room →Falcons40.0%right on their number · −2.7 vs their 42.7%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−0.33× that swing) · 45 early downs
Seahawks61.2%right on their number · +1.3 vs their 59.9%, and they swing ±11.1 week to week (+0.12× that swing) · 49 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 0% to 65%
Tendencies room →Falcons48.0%leaned — faked the run · +12.4 vs their 35.6%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (+1.10× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Seahawks19.6%right on their number · −4.4 vs their 23.9%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−0.50× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -39% to 99%
Fourth Down room →Falcons—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 24.9%.
Seahawks33.3%right on their number · −4.2 vs their 37.5%, and they swing ±23.4 week to week (−0.18× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -11% to 62%
Tendencies room →Falcons56.5%off script — sent pressure · +33.2 vs their 23.3%, and they swing ±13.3 week to week (+2.51× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Seahawks44.0%off script — sent pressure · +24.7 vs their 19.3%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (+2.16× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 33%
Tendencies room →Falcons10.9%right on their number · −0.0 vs their 10.9%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−0.00× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Seahawks24.0%leaned — got home · +8.1 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+1.23× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
ATL's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 56.5%, 33.2 points above their season mean of 23.3% and 2.5 times their own 13.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · SEA
32/44, 325 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
11.9 expected points added · +9.7% completion over expected
Passing · ATL
13/20, 229 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
14.9 expected points added · +12.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Cordarrelle Patterson banked 12.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cordarrelle PattersonRB · Committee Back | 22.3 | +12.5 | 61% | 56% | 5% | 0% | 17 car, 141 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 12 yd |
| Geno SmithQB · Starter QB | 18.9 | −2.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 32/44, 325 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, -1 yd |
| DK MetcalfWR · Alpha Receiver | 17.4 | −9.0 | 93% | 96% | 27% | 36% | 5/12, 64 yd, 1 TD |
| Tyler LockettWR · Alpha Receiver | 16.6 | +0.3 | 82% | 85% | 25% | 30% | 9/11, 76 yd |
| Marcus MariotaQB · Starter QB | 15.6 | −1.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 13/20, 229 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 7 car, 4 yd, 1 TD |
| Drake LondonWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.4 | +4.1 | 84% | 76% | 32% | 29% | 3/6, 54 yd, 1 TD |
| Kyle PittsTE · Alpha Receiver | 13.7 | 0.0 | 67% | 76% | 42% | 52% | 5/8, 87 yd |
| Will DisslyTE · Rotational Receiver | 12.4 | +6.4 | 61% | 50% | 7% | 7% | 3/3, 34 yd, 1 TD |
| Rashaad PennyRB · Bell Cow Back | 7.9 | 0.0 | 69% | 67% | 2% | 0% | 14 car, 66 yd · 1/1, 3 yd |
| Olamide ZaccheausWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.9 | +3.9 | 67% | 64% | 11% | 16% | 2/2, 49 yd |
| Noah FantTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.7 | +0.7 | 55% | 54% | 9% | 5% | 4/4, 27 yd |
| Colby ParkinsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.4 | +2.9 | 37% | 43% | 5% | 6% | 2/2, 44 yd |
| Kenneth WalkerRB | 6.3 | +0.4 | 13% | 9% | 7% | 0% | 3 car, 19 yd · 3/3, 14 yd |
| DeeJay DallasRB | 5.8 | +1.3 | 21% | 26% | 5% | 1% | 3 car, 21 yd · 2/2, 17 yd |
| Marquise GoodwinWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.1 | −2.6 | 42% | 48% | 11% | 17% | 2/5, 31 yd |
| Tyler AllgeierRB | 4.0 | −0.2 | 37% | 40% | 5% | 0% | 6 car, 25 yd · 1/1, 5 yd |
| Anthony FirkserTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | +1.2 | 16% | 20% | 5% | 5% | 1/1, 22 yd |
| Penny HartWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | +0.8 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Avery WilliamsRB | 0.9 | +0.3 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Travis HomerRB | 0.7 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Parker HesseTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 75% | 72% | 0% | — | No touches. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right intended for 16-T.Lockett INTERCEPTED by 27-R.Grant at ATL 6. 27-R.Grant to ATL 18 for 12 yards.
Q4 1:30 · Seahawks · 4th & 18 at ATL 38 · gained nothing · -0.88 EP · −19.6% win probability
155 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 164 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps, manual charting on 138. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 89 yards from the ATL 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Falcons0
Seahawks3Falcons6Seahawks3Falcons7Seahawks3How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Falcons7Seahawks9Falcons7Seahawks10Falcons10Seahawks10How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Falcons16Seahawks10Falcons17Seahawks10How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Falcons17Seahawks16Falcons17Seahawks17Falcons17Seahawks20Falcons20Seahawks20Falcons20Seahawks23How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Falcons26Seahawks23Falcons27Seahawks23How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
How the play was built
No huddle, a man in motion.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Falcons at Seahawks, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 13/20 | 229 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +14.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 17 | 141 | 8.3 | 1 | +5.8 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Avery Williams |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pitts | 5 | 8 | 87 | 0 | 42% | +6.4 |
| Drake London | 3 | 6 | 54 | 1 | 32% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashaan Evans | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Mykal Walker | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| A.J. Terrell |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 32/44 | 325 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +11.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_03_ATL_SEA
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Seahawks closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43; the game landed 50 — over by 7.0.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 9 |
| 9.0 |
| 0 |
| +1.0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 7 | 4 | 0.6 | 1 | −5.0 |
| +5.4 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 2 | 2 | 49 | 0 | 11% | +4.9 |
| Anthony Firkser | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 5% | +1.5 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 5% | +1.1 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5% | +0.5 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 3 |
| Richie Grant | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Casey Hayward | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grady Jarrett | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylinn Hawkins | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Andersen | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Carter | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Ford | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashaad Penny | 14 | 66 | 4.7 | 0 | +3.0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Kenneth Walker | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Travis Homer | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Geno Smith | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 9 | 11 | 76 | 0 | 25% | +4.5 |
| DK Metcalf | 5 | 12 | 64 | 1 | 27% | −1.0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 2 | 2 | 44 | 0 | 5% | +3.9 |
| Will Dissly | 3 | 3 | 34 | 1 | 7% | +3.9 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 2 | 5 | 31 | 0 | 11% | +2.3 |
| Noah Fant | 4 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 9% | +0.1 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 5% | +2.0 |
| Penny Hart | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 2% | +0.8 |
| Kenneth Walker | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 7% | −0.8 |
| Rashaad Penny | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2% | −0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Barton | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Al Woods | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Jones | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordyn Brooks | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tariq Woolen | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Poona Ford | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Uchenna Nwosu | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Jackson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Darrell Taylor | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quandre Diggs | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
