2022 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 25, 2022 · Lumen Field

Atlanta FalconsWinner

Seattle Seahawks

SEA -1 upsetO 43 ✓Seahawks closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Atlanta Falcons 27–23. Biggest swing: Q4 2:00, ATL +21% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 2:00ATL 27 — SEA 23SEA ball · 3rd & 8ATL 57%

(2:00) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at ATL 38 for -10 yards (97-G.Jarrett).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 2:00ATL +21% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at ATL 38 for -10 yards (97-G.Jarrett).
Q4 · 5:16ATL +18% win prob(5:16) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota to SEA 37 for -3 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by SEA-10-U.Nwosu at SEA 37.
Q4 · 1:30ATL +17% win prob(1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right intended for 16-T.Lockett INTERCEPTED by 27-R.Grant at ATL 6. 27-R.Grant to ATL 18 for 12 yards.
Q4 · 2:16ATL +15% win prob(2:16) (No Huddle) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 20-R.Penny to ATL 10 for 14 yards (28-M.Ford). PENALTY on SEA-68-D.Lewis, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 24 - No Play.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 10:23SEA Field goal
(10:23) 5-J.Myers 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Score after this play: ATL 0 — SEA 3
Q1 · 7:13ATL Touchdown
(7:13) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota right end to SEA 1 for no gain (57-C.Barton). Atlanta challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 7 — SEA 3
Q1 · 4:16SEA Touchdown
(4:16) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep middle to 89-W.Dissly for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 7 — SEA 10
Q1 · 0:11ATL Field goal
(:11) 7-Y.Koo 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: ATL 10 — SEA 10
Q2 · 8:18ATL Touchdown
(8:18) 84-C.Patterson right tackle for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 17 — SEA 10
Q2 · 4:04SEA Touchdown
(4:04) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 14-D.Metcalf for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 17 — SEA 17
Q2 · 0:09SEA Field goal
(:09) 5-J.Myers 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Score after this play: ATL 17 — SEA 20
Q3 · 10:07ATL Field goal
(10:07) 7-Y.Koo 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: ATL 20 — SEA 20
Q3 · 3:15SEA Field goal
(3:15) 5-J.Myers 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Score after this play: ATL 20 — SEA 23
Q3 · 0:41ATL Touchdown
(:41) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass short left to 5-D.London for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 27 — SEA 23

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Falcons	Seahawks
Offensive plays	52	69
Total yards	388	420 (edge)
Yards per play	7.5 (edge)	6.1
Expected points added / play	0.32 (edge)	0.19
Success rate	52%	57% (edge)
Dropback rate	48%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.59 (edge)	0.26
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.07 (edge)	0.06
Third downs	4/7 (edge)	9/17
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10 (edge)	8
First downs gained on snaps	21	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Falcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.32 expected points added per play vs 0.19.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SEA

Geno SmithQB

32/44, 325 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

11.9 expected points added · +9.7% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Marcus MariotaQB

13/20, 229 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

14.9 expected points added · +12.7% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Cordarrelle PattersonRB

17 att, 141 yds, 1 TD

5.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SEA

Rashaad PennyRB

14 att, 66 yds, 0 TD

3.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Kyle PittsTE

5/8 for 87 yds, 0 TD

42% of team targets · 6.4 expected points added

Receiving · SEA

Tyler LockettWR

9/11 for 76 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 4.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SEA	SEA 25	12	61	4:41	Field goal +3
2	ATL	ATL 25	9	68	3:09	Touchdown +7
3	SEA	SEA 26	8	74	2:58	Touchdown +7
4	ATL	ATL 25	10	62	4:05	Field goal +3
5	SEA	SEA 33	5	5	1:24	Punt
6	ATL	ATL 11	10	89	5:31	Touchdown +7
7	SEA	SEA 25	11	75	4:14	Touchdown +7
8	ATL	ATL 25	5	2	0:55	Punt
9	SEA	SEA 20	12	67	2:58	Field goal +3
10	ATL	ATL 25	2	0	0:05	Interception
11	ATL	ATL 25	10	29	5:00	Field goal +3
12	SEA	SEA 25	14	73	6:49	Field goal +3
13	ATL	ATL 25	7	75	2:36	Touchdown +7
14	SEA	SEA 25	11	30	4:47	Punt
15	ATL	ATL 10	9	53	5:36	Fumble
16	SEA	SEA 37	9	35	3:55	Interception
17	ATL	ATL 18	4	10	1:17	End of game

10 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 89 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Marcus Mariota	13/20	229	1	1	3	14.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Cordarrelle Patterson	17	141	8.3	1	5.8
Tyler Allgeier	6	25	4.2	0	-0.1
Avery Williams	1	9	9.0	0	1.0
Marcus Mariota	7	4	0.6	1	-5.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Kyle Pitts	5	8	87	0	42%	6.4
Drake London	3	6	54	1	32%	5.4
Olamide Zaccheaus	2	2	49	0	11%	4.9
Anthony Firkser	1	1	22	0	5%	1.5
Cordarrelle Patterson	1	1	12	0	5%	1.1
Tyler Allgeier	1	1	5	0	5%	0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Rashaan Evans	6	3	0.0	0	2
Mykal Walker	6	1	0.0	0	1
A.J. Terrell	6	0	0.0	0	3
Richie Grant	5	1	0.0	1	2
Casey Hayward	6	0	0.0	0	0
Grady Jarrett	4	1	1.0	0	0
Jaylinn Hawkins	3	1	0.0	0	0
Troy Andersen	3	0	0.0	0	0
Lorenzo Carter	1	1	1.0	0	0
Mike Ford	1	1	0.0	0	0

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Geno Smith	32/44	325	2	1	2	11.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Rashaad Penny	14	66	4.7	3.0
DeeJay Dallas	3	21	7.0	0.4
Kenneth Walker	3	19	6.3	-1.5
Travis Homer	1	7	7.0	0.3
Geno Smith	2	-1	-0.5	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyler Lockett	9	11	76	0	25%	4.5
DK Metcalf	5	12	64	1	27%	-1.0
Colby Parkinson	2	2	44	0	5%	3.9
Will Dissly	3	3	34	1	7%	3.9
Marquise Goodwin	2	5	31	0	11%	2.3
Noah Fant	4	4	27	0	9%	0.1
DeeJay Dallas	2	2	17	0	5%	2.0
Penny Hart	1	1	15	0	2%	0.8
Kenneth Walker	3	3	14	0	7%	-0.8
Rashaad Penny	1	1	3	0	2%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Cody Barton	3	3	0.0	0	0
Al Woods	3	2	0.0	0	0
Josh Jones	5	0	0.0	0	0
Jordyn Brooks	2	3	0.0	0	0
Tariq Woolen	3	1	0.0	1	1
Poona Ford	2	1	0.0	0	0
Uchenna Nwosu	1	2	0.0	0	0
Michael Jackson	3	0	0.0	0	1
Darrell Taylor	3	0	1.0	0	0
Quandre Diggs	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SEA -1
Closing total: 43
ATL moneyline: -104
SEA moneyline: -106

Seahawks closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43; the game landed 50 — over by 7.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lumen Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Tra Blake
Rest: ATL 7 days · SEA 7 days
Coaches: Arthur Smith vs Pete Carroll