2022 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 25, 2022 · Gillette Stadium

Baltimore RavensWinner

New England Patriots

BAL -2.5 ✓O 45.5 ✓Ravens closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 11.

Baltimore Ravens 37–26. Biggest swing: Q4 9:12, BAL +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 9:12BAL 31 — NE 26NE ball · 3rd & 10BAL 64%

(9:12) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left intended for 1-D.Parker INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Humphrey at BAL -8. Touchback.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 9:12BAL +17% win prob(9:12) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left intended for 1-D.Parker INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Humphrey at BAL -8. Touchback.
Q4 · 12:39BAL +15% win prob(12:39) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 7-R.Bateman to BAL 49 for 24 yards (31-Jo.Jones). FUMBLES (31-Jo.Jones), RECOVERED by NE-3-J.Peppers at NE 49. 3-J.Peppers to BAL 39 for 12 yards (7-R.Bateman; 72-B.Powers).
Q3 · 12:51NE +11% win prob(12:51) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left to 1-D.Parker ran ob at BAL 2 for 25 yards.
Q3 · 14:32NE +10% win prob(14:32) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left to 1-D.Parker to BAL 37 for 36 yards (21-B.Stephens). Penalty on BAL-21-B.Stephens, Defensive Holding, declined. NE 1-Parker 12th career 100-yard game.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 4:14BAL Touchdown
(4:14) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 89-Andrews 31st career rec TD, 2nd in franchise history (Heap 41). (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 7 — NE 0
Q2 · 15:00NE Field goal
(15:00) 6-N.Folk 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 6-Folk 57th consecutive FG under 50 yds, new NFL record.
Score after this play: BAL 7 — NE 3
Q2 · 6:04NE Touchdown
(6:04) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones scrambles left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 10-M.Jones 1st career rush TD. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 7 — NE 10
Q2 · 0:36BAL Touchdown
(:36) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 89-M.Andrews for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 14 — NE 10
Q2 · 0:01NE Field goal
(:01) 6-N.Folk 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: BAL 14 — NE 13
Q3 · 12:19NE Touchdown
(12:19) (Shotgun) 37-D.Harris up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 14 — NE 20
Q3 · 8:44BAL Touchdown
(8:44) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 84-J.Oliver for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 21 — NE 20
Q3 · 4:47BAL Touchdown
(4:47) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 13-D.Duvernay for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 28 — NE 20
Q3 · 2:38BAL Field goal
(2:38) 9-J.Tucker 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 9-Tucker 50th career 50+ yard FG.
Score after this play: BAL 31 — NE 20
Q4 · 12:45NE Touchdown
(12:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: BAL 31 — NE 26
Q4 · 3:07BAL Touchdown
(3:07) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right guard for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: BAL 37 — NE 26

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Ravens	Patriots
Offensive plays	56	64
Total yards	397	447 (edge)
Yards per play	7.1 (edge)	7.0
Expected points added / play	0.22 (edge)	0.00
Success rate	50% (edge)	45%
Dropback rate	61%	64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.09 (edge)	-0.06
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.43 (edge)	0.12
Third downs	5/10 (edge)	3/9
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10	13 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	20	24 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	3 (edge)
Turnovers	2 (edge)	4

Patriots outgained Ravens 447–397 but lost the turnover battle 4–2. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Mac JonesQB

22/32, 321 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT

-0.1 expected points added · +6.4% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

18/29, 218 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT

7.2 expected points added · +4.0% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

11 att, 107 yds, 1 TD

11.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Rhamondre StevensonRB

12 att, 73 yds, 1 TD

3.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NE

DeVante ParkerWR

5/10 for 156 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · 0.9 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Mark AndrewsTE

8/13 for 89 yds, 2 TD

48% of team targets · 6.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BAL	BAL 25	5	6	1:37	Punt
2	NE	NE 11	5	31	2:51	Punt
3	BAL	BAL 31	12	69	6:23	Touchdown +7
4	NE	NE 22	8	72	4:12	Field goal +3
5	BAL	BAL 25	5	0	2:04	Punt
6	NE	NE 41	7	26	3:34	Turnover on downs
7	BAL	BAL 33	3	-1	1:07	Interception
8	NE	BAL 32	7	32	2:14	Touchdown +7
9	BAL	BAL 25	11	75	5:28	Touchdown +7
10	NE	NE 25	6	43	0:30	Field goal +3
11	NE	NE 25	9	75	2:46	Touchdown +7
12	BAL	BAL 25	9	74	3:35	Touchdown +7
13	NE	NE 21	7	10	2:21	Punt
14	BAL	NE 44	5	44	1:37	Touchdown +7
15	NE	NE 25	3	3	0:37	Interception
16	BAL	NE 43	4	5	1:31	Field goal +3
17	NE	NE 25	11	75	4:54	Touchdown +6
18	BAL	BAL 25	2	24	0:14	Fumble
19	NE	BAL 39	6	29	3:19	Interception
20	BAL	BAL 20	6	28	2:30	Punt
21	NE	NE 29	3	32	1:01	Fumble
22	BAL	BAL 27	8	73	2:35	Touchdown +6
23	NE	NE 25	5	19	1:05	Interception
24	BAL	BAL 44	3	0	1:55	End of game

11 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 75 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	18/29	218	4	1	4	7.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Lamar Jackson	11	107	9.7	1	11.3
Justice Hill	6	60	10.0	0	2.5
J.K. Dobbins	7	23	3.3	0	-1.0
Devin Duvernay	2	-2	-1.0	0	-1.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mark Andrews	8	13	89	2	48%	6.0
Rashod Bateman	2	4	59	0	15%	-6.0
Devin Duvernay	2	2	25	1	7%	5.3
J.K. Dobbins	2	2	17	0	7%	1.1
Patrick Ricard	1	1	12	0	4%	1.3
Isaiah Likely	1	2	8	0	7%	-1.1
Josh Oliver	2	2	8	1	7%	1.5
Demarcus Robinson	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Chuck Clark	6	2	0.0	0	0
Josh Bynes	6	2	0.0	1	1
Marcus Williams	4	1	0.0	0	1
Patrick Queen	4	1	1.0	0	1
Odafe Oweh	3	2	0.0	0	0
Marlon Humphrey	4	0	0.0	1	1
Broderick Washington	3	1	0.0	0	0
Nnamdi Madubuike	2	1	1.0	0	0
Kyle Hamilton	2	1	0.0	0	0
Calais Campbell	1	1	0.0	0	0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mac Jones	22/32	321	0	3	3	-0.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Rhamondre Stevenson	12	73	6.1	1	3.7
Damien Harris	11	41	3.7	1	-0.8
Mac Jones	5	31	6.2	1	1.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
DeVante Parker	5	10	156	31%	0.9
Kendrick Bourne	4	5	58	16%	-0.9
Nelson Agholor	2	3	41	9%	0.2
Rhamondre Stevenson	4	5	28	16%	-1.4
Jonnu Smith	4	4	25	13%	2.5
Hunter Henry	1	1	8	3%	1.0
Damien Harris	2	3	5	9%	-0.7
Lil'Jordan Humphrey	0	1	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Devin McCourty	6	1	0.0	0	0
Deatrich Wise	5	1	3.0	0	0
Adrian Phillips	2	4	0.0	0	0
Jabrill Peppers	3	1	0.0	0	0
Ja'Whaun Bentley	2	2	0.0	0	0
Mack Wilson	1	3	0.0	0	0
Jonathan Jones	3	1	0.0	1	1
Christian Barmore	3	0	0.0	0	0
Jalen Mills	2	0	0.0	0	0
DeVante Parker	1	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -2.5
Closing total: 45.5
BAL moneyline: -143
NE moneyline: +129

Ravens closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 11.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 63 — over by 17.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: BAL 7 days · NE 7 days
Coaches: John Harbaugh vs Bill Belichick