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polling · 1800s tick · as of 8:35 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 25, 2022 · Gillette Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 3
It turned at Q4 9:12, 3rd and 10, on Marlon Humphrey — 17.1 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Baltimore Ravens 37–26. Biggest swing: Q4 9:12, Ravens +17.1% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 9:12 · 3rd and 10
Marlon Humphrey
Ravens
(9:12) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left intended for 1-D.Parker INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Humphrey at BAL -8. Touchback.
17.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Ravens won this one — 2 giveaways, against Patriots at 4 giveaways.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Ravens won this one — 5 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Patriots at 3 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.43 expected points per carry, against Patriots at +0.12 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — 13 chunk plays, against Ravens at 10 chunk plays.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
(9:12) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left intended for 1-D.Parker INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Humphrey at BAL -8. Touchback.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Josh Oliver's 1-yard touchdown catch with 8:44 left in the 3rd put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Josh Oliver1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Lamar JacksonLead never changed again+721–2011 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Ravenscategory by categoryPatriots
Ravens ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 56 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Patriots’s 64 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 5, Patriots 5.
Patriots outgained Ravens 447-397 but lost the turnover battle 4-2. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Ravens5.2 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +10.2 vs their -5.0 pts, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+1.17× that swing) · 56 snaps
Patriots-1.2 ptsright on their number · +0.1 vs their -1.3 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 63 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 18% to 83%
Tendencies room →Ravens54.3%right on their number · +3.5 vs their 50.8%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (+0.27× that swing) · 46 early downs
Patriots57.7%right on their number · +1.4 vs their 56.3%, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (+0.15× that swing) · 52 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 59%
Tendencies room →Ravens41.2%leaned — faked the run · +16.5 vs their 24.7%, and they swing ±13.6 week to week (+1.21× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Patriots15.0%right on their number · −3.0 vs their 18.0%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (−0.29× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -48% to 104%
Fourth Down room →Ravens—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 34.5%.
Patriots—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 21.7%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 58%
Tendencies room →Ravens30.0%right on their number · +3.5 vs their 26.5%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (+0.33× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Patriots41.2%leaned — sent pressure · +14.9 vs their 26.3%, and they swing ±12.6 week to week (+1.18× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 31%
Tendencies room →Ravens9.8%inside their normal wobble · −4.9 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.83× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Patriots17.6%inside their normal wobble · +3.4 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.51× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
BAL's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 41.2%, 16.5 points above their season mean of 24.7% and 1.2 times their own 13.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · NE
22/32, 321 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT
-0.1 expected points added · +6.4% completion over expected
Passing · BAL
18/29, 218 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT
7.2 expected points added · +4.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Lamar Jackson banked 16.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar JacksonQB · Starter QB | 39.4 | +16.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/29, 218 yd, 4 TD, 1 INT · 11 car, 107 yd, 1 TD |
| Mark AndrewsTE · Alpha Receiver | 28.9 | +1.4 | 90% | 91% | 48% | 58% | 8/13, 89 yd, 2 TD |
| DeVante ParkerWR · Alpha Receiver | 20.6 | −1.5 | 97% | 100% | 31% | 55% | 5/10, 156 yd |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB · Committee Back | 20.1 | +2.6 | 62% | 68% | 16% | 3% | 12 car, 73 yd, 1 TD · 4/5, 28 yd |
| Mac JonesQB · Starter QB | 15.9 | −8.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/32, 321 yd, 3 INT · 5 car, 31 yd, 1 TD |
| Damien HarrisRB · Committee Back | 12.6 | −3.0 | 38% | 32% | 9% | 0% | 11 car, 41 yd, 1 TD · 2/3, 5 yd |
| Devin DuvernayWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.3 | +2.9 | 58% | 65% | 7% | 6% | 2 car, -2 yd · 2/2, 25 yd, 1 TD |
| Kendrick BourneWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.8 | +1.8 | 27% | 34% | 16% | 19% | 4/5, 58 yd |
| Josh OliverTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.8 | +2.7 | 40% | 32% | 7% | 0% | 2/2, 8 yd, 1 TD |
| Jonnu SmithTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.5 | +0.1 | 48% | 41% | 13% | 1% | 4/4, 25 yd |
| Justice HillRB | 6.0 | +3.1 | 47% | 41% | 0% | — | 6 car, 60 yd |
| J.K. DobbinsRB | 6.0 | −0.6 | 45% | 50% | 7% | 2% | 7 car, 23 yd · 2/2, 17 yd |
| Rashod BatemanWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.9 | −1.8 | 62% | 79% | 15% | 34% | 2/4, 59 yd |
| Nelson AgholorWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.1 | −1.2 | 76% | 73% | 9% | 19% | 2/3, 41 yd |
| Patrick RicardRB | 2.2 | +1.1 | 65% | 53% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 12 yd |
| Isaiah LikelyTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | −0.9 | 33% | 47% | 7% | 0% | 1/2, 8 yd |
| Hunter HenryTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.2 | 70% | 76% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Demarcus RobinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | 37% | 32% | 4% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.7 | 82% | 76% | 3% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(9:12) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left intended for 1-D.Parker INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Humphrey at BAL -8. Touchback.
Q4 9:12 · Patriots · 3rd & goal at BAL 10 · gained nothing · -4.40 EP · −22.3% win probability
155 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 167 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps, manual charting on 135. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
11 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 75 yards from the BAL 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Ravens6
Patriots0Ravens7Patriots0Ravens7Patriots3Ravens7Patriots9Ravens7Patriots10How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Ravens13Patriots10Ravens14Patriots10Ravens14Patriots13How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Ravens14Patriots19Ravens14Patriots20Ravens20Patriots20Ravens21Patriots20Ravens27Patriots20Ravens28Patriots20Ravens31Patriots20Ravens31Patriots26How the play was built
A run-pass option, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Ravens37Patriots26Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Ravens at Patriots, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 18/29 | 218 | 4 | 1 | 4 | +7.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 11 | 107 | 9.7 | 1 | +11.3 |
| Justice Hill | 6 | 60 | 10.0 | 0 | +2.5 |
| J.K. Dobbins |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | 8 | 13 | 89 | 2 | 48% | +6.0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 2 | 4 | 59 | 0 | 15% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuck Clark | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Bynes | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Marcus Williams |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 22/32 | 321 | 0 | 3 | 3 | −0.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_03_BAL_NE
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Ravens closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 11.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 63 — over by 17.5.
Conditions and crew
| 7 |
| 23 |
| 3.3 |
| 0 |
| −1.0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | −1.7 |
| −6.0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 2 | 2 | 25 | 1 | 7% | +5.3 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 7% | +1.1 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 4% | +1.3 |
| Isaiah Likely | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 7% | −1.1 |
| Josh Oliver | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 7% | +1.5 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.4 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Patrick Queen | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Odafe Oweh | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marlon Humphrey | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Broderick Washington | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nnamdi Madubuike | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Hamilton | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Calais Campbell | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 12 | 73 | 6.1 | 1 | +3.7 |
| Damien Harris | 11 | 41 | 3.7 | 1 | −0.8 |
| Mac Jones | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 1 | +1.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 5 | 10 | 156 | 0 | 31% | +0.9 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 4 | 5 | 58 | 0 | 16% | −0.9 |
| Nelson Agholor | 2 | 3 | 41 | 0 | 9% | +0.2 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 16% | −1.4 |
| Jonnu Smith | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 13% | +2.5 |
| Hunter Henry | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +1.0 |
| Damien Harris | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 9% | −0.7 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin McCourty | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deatrich Wise | 5 | 1 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Phillips | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jabrill Peppers | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Whaun Bentley | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mack Wilson | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Jones | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Christian Barmore | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Mills | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
