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Baltimore Ravens 37 at New England Patriots 26. Final.
Ravens -2.5 ✓O 45.5 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 3
Baltimore Ravens 37, Patriots 26 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 9:12, 3rd and 10, on Marlon Humphrey — 17.1 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 9:12 · 3rd and 10
Marlon Humphrey
Ravens
(9:12) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left intended for 1-D.Parker INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Humphrey at BAL -8. Touchback.
Ravens closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 11.
Baltimore Ravens 37–26. Biggest swing: Q4 9:12, Ravens +17.1% win probability on one snap.
17.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
DeVante ParkerPatriotsQ3 12:51(12:51) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left to 1-D.Parker ran ob at BAL 2 for 25 yards.
10.9pts
Rashod BatemanPatriotsQ4 12:39(12:39) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 7-R.Bateman to BAL 49 for 24 yards (31-Jo.Jones). FUMBLES (31-Jo.Jones), RECOVERED by NE-3-J.Peppers at NE 49. 3-J.Peppers to BAL 39 for 12 yards (7-R.Bateman; 72-B.Powers).
15.3pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Ravens won this one — 2 giveaways, against Patriots at 4 giveaways.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Ravens won this one — 5 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Patriots at 3 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.43 expected points per carry, against Patriots at +0.12 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — 13 chunk plays, against Ravens at 10 chunk plays.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Ravens157 of 167 plays carry both curves
(9:12) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left intended for 1-D.Parker INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Humphrey at BAL -8. Touchback.
Swing −17.1 for PatriotsExpected points −4.40 for PatriotsThe model had Patriots 10 points higher than the market did.play 140
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 9:12BAL +17% win prob(9:12) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left intended for 1-D.Parker INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Humphrey at BAL -8. Touchback.
4th · 12:39BAL +15% win prob(12:39) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 7-R.Bateman to BAL 49 for 24 yards (31-Jo.Jones). FUMBLES (31-Jo.Jones), RECOVERED by NE-3-J.Peppers at NE 49. 3-J.Peppers to BAL 39 for 12 yards (7-R.Bateman; 72-B.Powers).
3rd · 12:51NE +11% win prob(12:51) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left to 1-D.Parker ran ob at BAL 2 for 25 yards.
3rd · 14:32NE +10% win prob(14:32) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left to 1-D.Parker to BAL 37 for 36 yards (21-B.Stephens). Penalty on BAL-21-B.Stephens, Defensive Holding, declined. NE 1-Parker 12th career 100-yard game.
3rd · 12:19NE +9% win prob(12:19) (Shotgun) 37-D.Harris up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:36NE +9% win prob(:36) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 89-M.Andrews for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Josh Oliver's 1-yard touchdown catch with 8:44 left in the 3rd put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
4th3:07Lamar Jackson·9-yd TD run9-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, hit left upright+637–26
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ravenscategory by categoryPatriots
Ravens5–4Patriots
397Total yards447
7.1Yards per play7.0
50%Success rate45%
50%Third-down rate33%
5Red-zone touchdowns3
10Explosive plays13
20First downs24
4Sacks taken3
2Turnovers4
The read
Ravens ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.22Ravens: +0.22 expected points added per play
+0.00Patriots: +0.00 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.09Ravens: +0.09 expected points added per play
−0.06Patriots: −0.06 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.43Ravens: +0.43 expected points added per play
+0.12Patriots: +0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 56 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Patriots’s 64 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 5, Patriots 5.
NotePatriots outgained Ravens 447-397 but lost the turnover battle 4-2. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.9 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.83× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Patriots17.6%
inside their normal wobble · +3.4 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.51× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
NoteBAL's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 41.2%, 16.5 points above their season mean of 24.7% and 1.2 times their own 13.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Jones pass−22% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(9:12) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left intended for 1-D.Parker INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Humphrey at BAL -8. Touchback.
Q4 9:12 · Patriots · 3rd & goal at BAL 10 · gained nothing · -4.40 EP · −22.3% win probability
155 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps, manual charting on 135. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 75 yards from the BAL 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
41%
Yards
841
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52+0.0560%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.5671%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR16+0.3256%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR15+0.0940%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.1842%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR5-0.3360%
Ravens0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 31
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 11 to the Patriots 45
Ravens6Patriots0
Ravens7Patriots0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Ravens 31 to the Patriots 5
The period ended9 plays, from the Patriots 22 to the Ravens 16
2nd quarter47 plays
Ravens7Patriots3
Field goal1 play
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 33
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Patriots 41 to the Ravens 33
Intercepted4 plays
Ravens7Patriots9
Ravens7Patriots10
Touchdown7 plays, from the Ravens 32 to the Ravens 3
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Ravens13Patriots10
Ravens14Patriots10
Touchdown11 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Patriots 16
Ravens14Patriots13
Field goal9 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Ravens 32
3rd quarter45 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Ravens14Patriots19
Ravens14Patriots20
Touchdown10 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Ravens 2
Ravens20Patriots20
Ravens21Patriots20
Touchdown10 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Patriots 1
Punt7 plays, from the Patriots 21 to the Patriots 36
Ravens27Patriots20
Ravens28Patriots20
Touchdown5 plays, from the Patriots 44 to the Patriots 4
Intercepted3 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 28
Ravens31Patriots20
Field goal4 plays, from the Patriots 43 to the Patriots 38
The period ended6 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Ravens 26
4th quarter42 plays
Ravens31Patriots26
Touchdown7 plays, from the Ravens 29 to the Ravens 1
How the play was built
A run-pass option, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.7 seconds
Fumble lost2 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Ravens 39 to the Ravens 10
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Ravens 48
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Patriots 29 to the Patriots 33
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Ravens37Patriots26
Touchdown9 plays, from the Ravens 27 to the Patriots 9
Intercepted5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 44
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
